2018 Toronto Blue Jays General Season Thread

[itsgametime]

... all without JD. 

Rays are next, hoping for at least 2/3 if not a sweep, Rays are using relief pitchers to start games so we have a chance for another sweep.

Well, according to Blue Jays PR, AKA Shi Davidi, they are still going to blow up the team:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sweep-orioles-wont-prevent-imminent-change-ahead/

It's probably the right move.  Too bad.  Hopefully the pain won't last for too long.

They are going to rebuild, most fans won't care what they call it as they just want to see a winning product, losing will continue, Atkins will trade Happ and JD for a top prospect or a few, they will bring up Vlad and market the hell out of him.  It will sell tickets and that's all they care about.

This all started with the signing of Morales.

 

[cabber24]

... all without JD. 

Rays are next, hoping for at least 2/3 if not a sweep, Rays are using relief pitchers to start games so we have a chance for another sweep.

Well, according to Blue Jays PR, AKA Shi Davidi, they are still going to blow up the team:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sweep-orioles-wont-prevent-imminent-change-ahead/

It's probably the right move.  Too bad.  Hopefully the pain won't last for too long.

It will sell tickets and that's all they care about.

I call BS, they let this thing fall apart. They had the best attendance in the league.  They have absolutely sat on their wallets and the fans have left. Stubhub is a cheaper place to buy tickets then at the box office. Management quit on the team and I have quit watching.

 

[itsgametime]

... all without JD. 

Rays are next, hoping for at least 2/3 if not a sweep, Rays are using relief pitchers to start games so we have a chance for another sweep.

Well, according to Blue Jays PR, AKA Shi Davidi, they are still going to blow up the team:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sweep-orioles-wont-prevent-imminent-change-ahead/

It's probably the right move.  Too bad.  Hopefully the pain won't last for too long.

It will sell tickets and that's all they care about.

I call BS, they let this thing fall apart. They had the best attendance in the league.  They have absolutely sat on their wallets and the fans have left. Stubhub is a cheaper place to buy tickets then at the box office. Management quit on the team and I have quit watching.

Not sure what you mean by BS, I saw it coming and it was their plan all along, it started with cheaping out in the 2016 off season, they signed Morales instead of EE but most casual fans didn't see it so ticket sales were strong right up into 2018 spring training.  Atkins and Shaprio's job is to keep the team competitive  - their goal should be to win the WS not just to be competitive - big difference.

 

[cabber24]

... all without JD. 

Rays are next, hoping for at least 2/3 if not a sweep, Rays are using relief pitchers to start games so we have a chance for another sweep.

Well, according to Blue Jays PR, AKA Shi Davidi, they are still going to blow up the team:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sweep-orioles-wont-prevent-imminent-change-ahead/

It's probably the right move.  Too bad.  Hopefully the pain won't last for too long.

It will sell tickets and that's all they care about.

I call BS, they let this thing fall apart. They had the best attendance in the league.  They have absolutely sat on their wallets and the fans have left. Stubhub is a cheaper place to buy tickets then at the box office. Management quit on the team and I have quit watching.

Not sure what you mean by BS, I saw it coming and it was their plan all along, it started with cheaping out in the 2016 off season, they signed Morales instead of EE but most casual fans didn't see it so ticket sales were strong right up into 2018 spring training.  Atkins and Shaprio's job is to keep the team competitive  - their goal should be to win the WS not just to be competitive - big difference.

It will sell tickets and that's all they care about.

This sentence is total garbage and you have provided some of the reasons why it is.

 

[Andy007]

165 million dollar payroll for 2018 and only 5 million less than the Yankees. I mean...yea, it's been a tough few seasons but it's an old, injury prone, overpaid lineup that can't be fixed right now by simply spending more money.

 

[itsgametime]

... all without JD. 

Rays are next, hoping for at least 2/3 if not a sweep, Rays are using relief pitchers to start games so we have a chance for another sweep.

Well, according to Blue Jays PR, AKA Shi Davidi, they are still going to blow up the team:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sweep-orioles-wont-prevent-imminent-change-ahead/

It's probably the right move.  Too bad.  Hopefully the pain won't last for too long.

It will sell tickets and that's all they care about.

I call BS, they let this thing fall apart. They had the best attendance in the league.  They have absolutely sat on their wallets and the fans have left. Stubhub is a cheaper place to buy tickets then at the box office. Management quit on the team and I have quit watching.

Not sure what you mean by BS, I saw it coming and it was their plan all along, it started with cheaping out in the 2016 off season, they signed Morales instead of EE but most casual fans didn't see it so ticket sales were strong right up into 2018 spring training.  Atkins and Shaprio's job is to keep the team competitive  - their goal should be to win the WS not just to be competitive - big difference.

It will sell tickets and that's all they care about.

This sentence is total garbage and you have provided some of the reasons why it is.

well let me add, selling tickets does not necessarily equate to winning

 

[bustaheims]

165 million dollar payroll for 2018 and only 5 million less than the Yankees. I mean...yea, it's been a tough few seasons but it's an old, injury prone, overpaid lineup that can't be fixed right now by simply spending more money.

Yup. The issues with the team right now is a combination of bloated contracts and the top free agents not wanting to sign here. Combine that with the trade AA made in his final couple seasons that damaged the prospect depth, and the team wasn't exactly in good shape to add high end talent to a roster that needed a boost.

 

[cabber24]

165 million dollar payroll for 2018 and only 5 million less than the Yankees. I mean...yea, it's been a tough few seasons but it's an old, injury prone, overpaid lineup that can't be fixed right now by simply spending more money.

Yup. The issues with the team right now is a combination of bloated contracts and the top free agents not wanting to sign here. Combine that with the trade AA made in his final couple seasons that damaged the prospect depth, and the team wasn't exactly in good shape to add high end talent to a roster that needed a boost.

I feel the team had the opportunity to remain competitive, if not contend, with a young strong pitching core and a mvp to build around. We have not resigned our MVP and haven't brought in a single meaningful player. We have picked up fringe/depth players that's it. What did the fan's get for their support? Higher ticket prices and a crappier team.

 

[Kin]

What doesn't really add up is that I don't think anyone right now could point to a free agent that the Jays missed out on that would have had a significant impact on where the Jays are right now. Edwin, as much as we all liked him, is currently sporting a 0.7 WAR. Arrieta is at 1.7. David Price, who many people gave Shapiro the biggest lambasting over, has consistently underperformed the guy Shapiro did sign at more than twice the price.

So when people talk about a failed opportunity to keep the team competitive via free agency...who are they referring to? What course of action could the Jays have taken that would have kept them at a reasonable payroll and had them up there with the Sox and Yankees?

The difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox and the Jays right now isn't payroll or free agent spending, it's that the Red Sox and Yankees are coming up with really good young players and the Jays aren't.

 

[Andy007]

I don't know, for me, signing a 32 year old who's had serious injuries the last two years and who plays the position of our top prospect who's also the top MLB prospect, to a lucrative, long-term deal just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

As for meaningful players, they acquired some pretty decent controllable young pieces in Diaz, Solarte, Hernandez and Grichuk at a pretty low net cost. And with 2/3 of that "young strong pitching core" out of the lineup for almost the entire year, as well as the other major injuries this team has sustained, I'm not sure how much better this team could possibly have been.

And yea, exactly what Nik just posted, too.

 

[bustaheims]

I feel the team had the opportunity to remain competitive, if not contend, with a young strong pitching core and a mvp to build around. We have not resigned our MVP and haven't brought in a single meaningful player. We have picked up fringe/depth players that's it. What did the fan's get for their support? Higher ticket prices and a crappier team.

That MVP has been dealing with major injury issues over the past two seasons, and is closer to the end of his career than the beginning. He's not a great player to give a long-term, big dollar commitment to right now - never mind the fact that it's awfully difficult to build a successful team around a single high-end batter. Also, those young pitchers? They're hardly contributing right now, either.

So, really, the aspects you highlight as reasons the team should have been able to be competitive? They're playing a significant role is why the team isn't.

 

[bustaheims]

What doesn't really add up is that I don't think anyone right now could point to a free agent that the Jays missed out on that would have had a significant impact on where the Jays are right now. Edwin, as much as we all liked him, is currently sporting a 0.7 WAR. Arrieta is at 1.7. David Price, who many people gave Shapiro the biggest lambasting over, has consistently underperformed the guy Shapiro did sign at more than twice the price.

So when people talk about a failed opportunity to keep the team competitive via free agency...who are they referring to? What course of action could the Jays have taken that would have kept them at a reasonable payroll and had them up there with the Sox and Yankees?

The difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox and the Jays right now isn't payroll or free agent spending, it's that the Red Sox and Yankees are coming up with really good young players and the Jays aren't.

There may not have been a single player who would have moved the needle substantially on their own, but, there were definitely guys available who would be upgrades on what the team has now, and the cumulative impact of those upgrades had the potential to be significant. Bringing guys like Lorenzo Cain or Justin Upton could have been nice upgrades to the offence, or bringing in Hosmer and ditching Morales. Adding someone like Hellickson to the pitching staff would be a nice upgrade so far this season (though, he wasn't very good last season). Whether those moves would have been enough is obviously open for debate, but there were opportunities to improve the team where the Jays either weren't in the running or were unable to seal the deal.

 

[Kin]

There may not have been a single player who would have moved the needle substantially on their own, but, there were definitely guys available who would be upgrades on what the team has now, and the cumulative impact of those upgrades had the potential to be significant. Bringing guys like Lorenzo Cain or Justin Upton could have been nice upgrades to the offence, or bringing in Hosmer and ditching Morales. Adding someone like Hellickson to the pitching staff would be a nice upgrade so far this season (though, he wasn't very good last season). Whether those moves would have been enough is obviously open for debate, but there were opportunities to improve the team where the Jays either weren't in the running or were unable to seal the deal.

Whether they would have been enough is definitely questionable but beyond that you're talking about cases of adding 10+ million dollars per player at least. The "keeping the payroll reasonable" side of that is pretty questionable too.

I don't think it's reasonable or wise to expect the Jays to have fielded a 200+ million dollar team in the hopes of maybe squeezing out a wildcard spot.

 

[bustaheims]

Whether they would have been enough is definitely questionable but beyond that you're talking about cases of adding 10+ million dollars per player at least. The "keeping the payroll reasonable" side of that is pretty questionable too.

I don't think it's reasonable or wise to expect the Jays to have fielded a 200+ million dollar team in the hopes of maybe squeezing out a wildcard spot.

Well, that's the bloated contract issue I referenced in my first post impacting things. If the Jays weren't spending $50+ million on Martin, Tulo, and Morales, they'd be in a much better position to upgrade other areas.

 

[itsgametime]

What doesn't really add up is that I don't think anyone right now could point to a free agent that the Jays missed out on that would have had a significant impact on where the Jays are right now. Edwin, as much as we all liked him, is currently sporting a 0.7 WAR. Arrieta is at 1.7. David Price, who many people gave Shapiro the biggest lambasting over, has consistently underperformed the guy Shapiro did sign at more than twice the price.

So when people talk about a failed opportunity to keep the team competitive via free agency...who are they referring to? What course of action could the Jays have taken that would have kept them at a reasonable payroll and had them up there with the Sox and Yankees?

The difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox and the Jays right now isn't payroll or free agent spending, it's that the Red Sox and Yankees are coming up with really good young players and the Jays aren't.

Edwin's WAR number alone is meaningless without stripping out the defensive components (since he plays 1B and DH's), his oWAR is 5 and it was 18 last season (Morales was -8/-11).  He had plenty left in the tank but Atkins thought he could get the same production out of Morales at a reduced price but he was wrong. 

 

[Kin]

Edwin's WAR number alone is meaningless without stripping out the defensive components (since he plays 1B and DH's), his oWAR is 5 and it was 18 last season (Morales was -8/-11).

I'm using BR's formula here and his WAR basically is his oWAR and has been the last few years. His oWAR is 0.7 and his WAR is 0.7. Last year the split was 3.0/2.8(he loses a little for being a bad 1B)

Nobody in the history of baseball has had a oWAR of 18.

edit: It looks like you're using Fangraphs and it seems like the stat you're referencing is offensive runs above average, not wins.

 

[itsgametime]

Edwin's WAR number alone is meaningless without stripping out the defensive components (since he plays 1B and DH's), his oWAR is 5 and it was 18 last season (Morales was -8/-11).

I'm using BR's formula here and his WAR basically is his oWAR and has been the last few years. His oWAR is 0.7 and his WAR is 0.7. Last year the split was 3.0/2.8(he loses a little for being a bad 1B)

Nobody in the history of baseball has had a oWAR of 18.

Yea Fangraphs Offense (not War) was 18, the comparison stands.

Point is you cannot compare EE to Morales, EE is the much better player by every offensive statistic.  When EE declined the first offer from Atkins he quickly and inexplicabley signed Morales - that was a big mistake

 

[Kin]

Point is you cannot compare EE to Morales, EE is the much better player.

No, you absolutely can compare the two. The whole point of these numbers is that it lets us compare two players and judge their relative impact. The difference between Morales and Encarnacion is, according to Fangraphs, something like 13 runs or so or as BR would put it, about 1.2 wins.

 

[Kin]

When EE declined the first offer from Atkins he quickly and inexplicabley signed Morales - that was a big mistake

Also, just for clarity's sake, it was Shapiro who made that call, not Atkins. Atkins hadn't been hired yet.

 

[cabber24]

Jays aren't even having conversations with any of these guys. I don't believe it's a choice, it's policy not to spend or take on more. Not only did we not spend we did not, have not, traded "aging assets" thus decreasing the return with everyday that passes. So which is it?

I basically see it as farce to have the appearance of remaining competitive without sincerely making an effort to do so. We're neither rebuilding or competing. It's maddening to me.

I believe in our pitching staff even though they have struggled of late.

I would like to see Donaldson, Happ and Estrada stay and bring up our big 2 prospects next year and see what we can do. This is a decent team that needs a few more meaningful parts.