2018 Toronto Blue Jays General Season Thread

[Kin]

All my WAR values are specific to the year leading into the player signing the FA contract (except for Keuchel).  Fixed means I took into account the WAR as a result of playing on 2 teams but I was not precise and it really didn't matter since we were comparing to a 2 WAR threshold but here they are : 

Lester 2014 had 2 WAR's 2.8 and 1.9 = 2014 WAR 2.5. 
Redick 2015 had 2 WAR's 2.3 and .2 = 2015 WAR 1.44
Zobrist 2015 had 2 WAR's 0.8 and 1.1 - 2015 WAR 0.94

No, WAR is cumulative. It is not an average. It's no different from a guy hitting 15 homeruns for one team and then 20 for another. That's 35 homeruns, not 17.5. Lester's WAR in 2014 was 4.7.

 

[itsgametime]

All my WAR values are specific to the year leading into the player signing the FA contract (except for Keuchel).  Fixed means I took into account the WAR as a result of playing on 2 teams but I was not precise and it really didn't matter since we were comparing to a 2 WAR threshold but here they are : 

Lester 2014 had 2 WAR's 2.8 and 1.9 = 2014 WAR 2.5. 
Redick 2015 had 2 WAR's 2.3 and .2 = 2015 WAR 1.44
Zobrist 2015 had 2 WAR's 0.8 and 1.1 - 2015 WAR 0.94

No, WAR is cumulative. It is not an average. It's no different from a guy hitting 15 homeruns for one team and then 20 for another. That's 35 homeruns, not 17.5. Lester's WAR in 2014 was 4.7.

Bref for some reason doesn't combine them for you unless it's separate years - not sure why it does that - so I assumed they needed to be weighted averaged over the number of games for each team within that season.  I don't use WAR unless it's to compare careers - eg. when looking at HOF ballots..etc.  This is a problem with using WAR in trying to compare season over season

 

[itsgametime]

Lester 4.7
Redick 2.5
Zobrist is 1.9

correct?

 

[Kin]

Bref for some reason doesn't combine them for you unless it's separate years - not sure why it does that - so I assumed they needed to be weighted averaged over the number of games for each team within that season.  I don't use WAR unless it's to compare careers - eg. when looking at HOF ballots..etc.  This is a problem with using WAR in trying to compare season over season

I don't think it's a problem with WAR but even moving on from that I still think you're drastically misrepresenting my point. My point was that the kind of player Edwin seems to be now, a 2-3 win sort of player, is not good enough to change the fortunes of the team so signing him would have been bad for the Jays considering its length and term and his age and likelihood of decline.

Somehow, you seem to have interpreted that as "signing all free agents ever is bad for any team". That is not what I think. In fact, I think a strong argument can be made that while signing EE at his desired price would have been the wrong move for the Jays, it was a reasonable one for Cleveland. Cleveland has the young core the Jays don't and while their title hopes mainly rest on the shoulders of guys like Lindor and Ramirez and Kluber, their window was right for supplementing that core externally with guys at key positions in the hope that they get a few high value years even if the long term value of the contract doesn't look so good.

Free agent deals don't happen in a vacuum. How a player fits into a situation, what that team's needs are, and the player's entire history(not just the one pre-free agency year) need to be taken into account.

 

[Kin]

Lester 4.7
Redick 2.5
Zobrist is 1.9

correct?

Yes. Although keeping in mind that it's cumulative, that Zobrist season was over 126 games and Reddick's even shorter over 115. So, again, there's a huge difference between "A 2-3 win ballplayer wouldn't drastically alter the Jays' situation right now" and "There is no reason for any team to ever sign a 2-3 win player".

 

[itsgametime]

Bref for some reason doesn't combine them for you unless it's separate years - not sure why it does that - so I assumed they needed to be weighted averaged over the number of games for each team within that season.  I don't use WAR unless it's to compare careers - eg. when looking at HOF ballots..etc.  This is a problem with using WAR in trying to compare season over season

I don't think it's a problem with WAR but even moving on from that I still think you're drastically misrepresenting my point. My point was that the kind of player Edwin seems to be now, a 2-3 win sort of player, is not good enough to change the fortunes of the team so signing him would have been bad for the Jays considering its length and term and his age and likelihood of decline.

Somehow, you seem to have interpreted that as "signing all free agents ever is bad for any team". That is not what I think. In fact, I think a strong argument can be made that while signing EE at his desired price would have been the wrong move for the Jays, it was a reasonable one for Cleveland. Cleveland has the young core the Jays don't and while their title hopes mainly rest on the shoulders of guys like Lindor and Ramirez and Kluber, their window was right for supplementing that core externally with guys at key positions in the hope that they get a few high value years even if the long term value of the contract doesn't look so good.

Free agent deals don't happen in a vacuum. How a player fits into a situation, what that team's needs are, and the player's entire history(not just the one pre-free agency year) need to be taken into account.

"I'd like them to look at the actually successful teams and do what they are doing. Teams like the Cubs or Astros didn't get where they are by virtue of giving tons of money to 2 WAR players, they did it by developing their own talent."

and I was attempting to show you that was not totally accurate by following your line of thinking starting with you stating EE's current WAR of 0.7 and I told you he will easily be above 2 at years end - remember it's cumulative, WAR is not to be used to compare in season or even 1 or 2 seasons it wont tell the whole story the authors of it tell you as much.  So not sure how that translated to me "drastically misrepresenting my point" (unless you meant me miss interpreting the 2 team WAR stat?).  Further "tons of money" is relative ... $10M - $25M. 

I showed you the Cubs and Astros payroll, I also showed the increase in payroll leading up to their WS wins, I showed you the key components of their roster - 5 homegrown and 5 not homegrown players which goes against your statement above.

I purposely stayed away from traditional stats but because you said something along the lines you didn't dare for them:

EE right now .825 OPS, 115 OPS+ 16 HR's and 40 RBI's
Morales .634 OPS,74 OPS+ 5 HR's and 20 RBI's

 

[Kin]

"I'd like them to look at the actually successful teams and do what they are doing. Teams like the Cubs or Astros didn't get where they are by virtue of giving tons of money to 2 WAR players, they did it by developing their own talent."

and I was attempting to show you that was not totally accurate by following your line of thinking starting with you stating EE's current WAR of 0.7 and I told you he will easily be above 2 at years end - remember it's cumulative, WAR is not to be used to compare in season or even 1 or 2 seasons it wont tell the whole story the authors of it tell you as much.  So not sure how that translated to me "drastically misrepresenting my point" (unless you meant me miss interpreting the 2 team WAR stat?).  Further "tons of money" is relative ... $10M - $25M. 

Except none of that is true. Your "examples" of those teams giving money to "2 WAR players" are three cases, all of which are bad comps. Lester wasn't a 2 WAR player by any definition and in the other cases you're looking at two guys coming off of being injured, playing 3/4's of a season but who had histories of being substantially better than 2 WAR players(and, while it's true that EE has that as well, he's also significantly older than Reddick and Lester were so his decline is far more likely)

Short of that, to establish any inconsistency, you'd have to seriously be making the argument that the Cubs got to where they did by virtue of the Ben Zobrist deal, which is insane.

Also, EE is at 0.7 through 1/3 of the season so it's by no means a sure thing he'll finish above 2.0, let alone well above it.

I showed you the Cubs and Astros payroll, I also showed the increase in payroll leading up to their WS wins, I showed you the key components of their roster - 5 homegrown and 5 not homegrown players which goes against your statement above.

No, it doesn't. For starters you're somehow equating a move like the Cubs acquiring Arrieta as a 27 year old pitcher by virtue of trading nothing for him with high priced talent acquisitions. That's disingenuous at best.

But as to the main point you're again completely incorrect. The comparison you made with the Cubs still showed their in-house talent contributing the bulk of their success(25 being higher than 20) and you didn't even do it for the Astros because you know their external contributions didn't come close to that of their homegrown talent. The Jays did not have an equivalent young core to either team and so it didn't make sense to sign free agents like they did, even if Encarnacion was a good comparison for any of the guys they signed(which he isn't). Those teams were built primarily on the backs of their in-house talent which was then supplemented by outside help. That simply wouldn't have been the case here.

Otherwise the case you're making is effectively that the major difference between the Jays and the Astros or Cubs isn't the difference between Rizzo and Smoak or Jose Altuve and Devon Travis or Keuchel and Stroman but rather the difference between Morales and Zobrist. Which, again, is just nonsense.

I purposely stayed away from traditional stats but because you said something along the lines you didn't dare for them:

EE right now .825 OPS, 115 OPS+ 16 HR's and 40 RBI's
Morales .634 OPS,74 OPS+ 5 HR's and 20 RBI's

Which is entirely irrelevant. The Morales signing was bad. I'm not arguing otherwise. But the Morales signing being bad doesn't make signing Encarnacion good. That Morales shouldn't be getting at-bats doesn't mean that Encarnacion's 2 or 3 wins would turn the Jays into a World Series winner.

 

[Kin]

For clarity's sake, here's the Astros' 2+ win players last year:

In-House:

Altuve 8.3
Correa 6.3
Springer 5.0
Gonzalez 4.3
Bregman 4.1
Keuchel 3.9
Peacock 3.0
Gurriel    2.6

Total: 37.5

External:

Redick: 4.3
Marisnick: 2.0

Total: 6.3 or less than Altuve by himself

So the Astros absolutely were built on internal talent, not on external additions. External additions were made to supplement the very talented core they already had in place.

 

[itsgametime]

"I'd like them to look at the actually successful teams and do what they are doing. Teams like the Cubs or Astros didn't get where they are by virtue of giving tons of money to 2 WAR players, they did it by developing their own talent."

and I was attempting to show you that was not totally accurate by following your line of thinking starting with you stating EE's current WAR of 0.7 and I told you he will easily be above 2 at years end - remember it's cumulative, WAR is not to be used to compare in season or even 1 or 2 seasons it wont tell the whole story the authors of it tell you as much.  So not sure how that translated to me "drastically misrepresenting my point" (unless you meant me miss interpreting the 2 team WAR stat?).  Further "tons of money" is relative ... $10M - $25M. 

Except none of that is true. Your "examples" of those teams giving money to "2 WAR players" are three cases, all of which are bad comps. Lester wasn't a 2 WAR player by any definition and in the other cases you're looking at two guys coming off of being injured, playing 3/4's of a season but who had histories of being substantially better than 2 WAR players(and, while it's true that EE has that as well, he's also significantly older than Reddick and Lester were so his decline is far more likely)

It is true and they aren't my examples they are yours "Teams like the Cubs or Astros didn't get where they are by virtue of giving tons of money to 2 WAR players, they did it by developing their own talent."  So you started the examination of those clubs not me I'm just following along.  I listed players that were signed in the year leading up to the WS wins go back up and check its's all there I had the wrong war values and that was pointed out and fixed. Moreover with "your" Cubs example you can add that they signed one of the worst contracts ever in Jason Heyward @ 8 yrs/$184M.

Short of that, to establish any inconsistency, you'd have to seriously be making the argument that the Cubs got to where they did by virtue of the Ben Zobrist deal, which is insane.

No by virtue of all the players (homegrown and not) I listed for you already.

Also, EE is at 0.7 through 1/3 of the season so it's by no means a sure thing he'll finish above 2.0, let alone well above it.

He is on track, EE is 11th overall in home runs, seriously, quoting a WAR stat 56 games into the season makes little sense especially from a player showing no signs of decline, it would be the last stat to use when comparing in season. 

I showed you the Cubs and Astros payroll, I also showed the increase in payroll leading up to their WS wins, I showed you the key components of their roster - 5 homegrown and 5 not homegrown players which goes against your statement above.

No, it doesn't. For starters you're somehow equating a move like the Cubs acquiring Arrieta as a 27 year old pitcher by virtue of trading nothing for him with high priced talent acquisitions. That's disingenuous at best.

This shows me that you really don't understand.  I never mentioned him for a reason, do you even know his history?

But as to the main point you're again completely incorrect. The comparison you made with the Cubs still showed their in-house talent contributing the bulk of their success(25 being higher than 20) and you didn't even do it for the Astros because you know their external contributions didn't come close to that of their homegrown talent. The Jays did not have an equivalent young core to either team and so it didn't make sense to sign free agents like they did, even if Encarnacion was a good comparison for any of the guys they signed(which he isn't). Those teams were built primarily on the backs of their in-house talent which was then supplemented by outside help. That simply wouldn't have been the case here.

I am completely correct, see the bolded above, you said "they did it by developing their own talent." I don't see anything there about bulk.  It may be true it may not, point is your changing the discussion to suit your argument.

Otherwise the case you're making is effectively that the major difference between the Jays and the Astros or Cubs isn't the difference between Rizzo and Smoak or Jose Altuve and Devon Travis or Keuchel and Stroman but rather the difference between Morales and Zobrist. Which, again, is just nonsense.

Nope.  You are the one with the Cubs and Astros comps - my point of contention is actuality very very easy.  EE vs Morales.  You have to be the only one that can't see it and your argument that EE wouldn't have made a difference just imagine if GM's managed teams with that mindset?  Not only would they be fired but players would quit on them. 

I purposely stayed away from traditional stats but because you said something along the lines you didn't dare for them:

EE right now .825 OPS, 115 OPS+ 16 HR's and 40 RBI's
Morales .634 OPS,74 OPS+ 5 HR's and 20 RBI's

Which is entirely irrelevant. The Morales signing was bad. I'm not arguing otherwise. But the Morales signing being bad doesn't make signing Encarnacion good. That Morales shouldn't be getting at-bats doesn't mean that Encarnacion's 2 or 3 wins would turn the Jays into a World Series winner.

Right, and 56 games of a WAR stat is relevant. There's no way out of this rabbit hole.

 

[itsgametime]

For clarity's sake, here's the Astros' 2+ win players last year:

In-House:

Altuve 8.3
Correa 6.3
Springer 5.0
Gonzalez 4.3
Bregman 4.1
Keuchel 3.9
Peacock 3.0
Gurriel    2.6

Total: 37.5

External:

Redick: 4.3
Marisnick: 2.0

Total: 6.3 or less than Altuve by himself

So the Astros absolutely were built on internal talent, not on external additions. External additions were made to supplement the very talented core they already had in place.

Clarity?  again you brought the Astros up not me.  Hmm, missed a little $16M external? check again.

 

[Kin]

Hmm, missed a little $16M external? check again.

You mean the guy with the -0.6 WAR? Yeah, he was the whole reason they won the World Series.

 

[Kin]

Nope.  You are the one with the Cubs and Astros comps - my point of contention is actuality very very easy.  EE vs Morales.

It's a false choice. The Jays didn't have to sign either. Both deals can be evaluated invidually on their own merits.

 

[sickbeast]

I was hoping the Jays could keep it rolling against the Rays but they are fading fast.  This will be a lost season.  They're going to blow the team up for sure.

 

[cabber24]

Separate??  Looks like the decisions are directly related. Morales was signed immediately after EE declined their first offer

They're related in as much as both had to do with the Jays and their DH position but you can evaluate each separately on their own merits. Neither deal was a particularly good one for the team to sign. Especially if, as reported, Encarnacion was looking for even more money and more years from the Jays.

WAR is meant more to compare seasons or careers not 1/3rd of a season go and check the real numbers it's not even close.

I don't think there's anything less real about numbers like runs above average or WAR(and I don't agree about what they were "meant for" in such a limited sense) but even looking at traditional numbers EE looks like an older ballplayer who isn't having a great year who wouldn't be a huge difference maker.

It makes sense right now to hope that Morales' pretty good last month or so(or at least better month or so) can continue until the deadline where they can hopefully move him for a C prospect or something. After that, yeah, stop giving him at-bats and you can probably make up most of the difference between him and EE.

All that aside, my concern is more with the message than with the actual players.  To me the message is we are trying to be competitive, the message that I want to hear is we are in this to win the WS - nothing less.  This is a big market and there's no reason why we can't compete with the other big market teams.

Don't forget this country went nuts for this team in 2015 and 2016, I want that back, we should all demand it - I refuse to buy tickets until then.

This is the route of my frustration, you damn right we're a big market!

Act like it and field a great team and quit with the "um, ah's" from this inept, muzzled management group.

 

[bustaheims]

I was hoping the Jays could keep it rolling against the Rays but they are fading fast.  This will be a lost season.  They're going to blow the team up for sure.

Which is probably for the best. The core of the team needs an overhaul and the farm system could use some depth. There are some bloated contracts the team may have to eat, but that's much easier to swallow when you can replace them with cheap/cost-controlled young players who contribute as much or more to the team's success.

 

[sickbeast]

I was hoping the Jays could keep it rolling against the Rays but they are fading fast.  This will be a lost season.  They're going to blow the team up for sure.

Which is probably for the best. The core of the team needs an overhaul and the farm system could use some depth. There are some bloated contracts the team may have to eat, but that's much easier to swallow when you can replace them with cheap/cost-controlled young players who contribute as much or more to the team's success.

It's going to take a few years.  A lot of their prospects are pretty raw.  And like you say, the Tulo, Morales, and Martin contracts won't come off the books for a few years.  Those contracts are albatrosses and they limit what management can do to improve the team.

The real problem is going to be the attendance next season.  It's going to plummet.

 

[Frank E]

I was hoping the Jays could keep it rolling against the Rays but they are fading fast.  This will be a lost season.  They're going to blow the team up for sure.

Which is probably for the best. The core of the team needs an overhaul and the farm system could use some depth. There are some bloated contracts the team may have to eat, but that's much easier to swallow when you can replace them with cheap/cost-controlled young players who contribute as much or more to the team's success.

It's going to take a few years.  A lot of their prospects are pretty raw.  And like you say, the Tulo, Morales, and Martin contracts won't come off the books for a few years.  Those contracts are albatrosses and they limit what management can do to improve the team.

The real problem is going to be the attendance next season.  It's going to plummet.

Attendance isn't your problem, sickbeast, so don't worry too much about that.

 

[sickbeast]

I was hoping the Jays could keep it rolling against the Rays but they are fading fast.  This will be a lost season.  They're going to blow the team up for sure.

Which is probably for the best. The core of the team needs an overhaul and the farm system could use some depth. There are some bloated contracts the team may have to eat, but that's much easier to swallow when you can replace them with cheap/cost-controlled young players who contribute as much or more to the team's success.

It's going to take a few years.  A lot of their prospects are pretty raw.  And like you say, the Tulo, Morales, and Martin contracts won't come off the books for a few years.  Those contracts are albatrosses and they limit what management can do to improve the team.

The real problem is going to be the attendance next season.  It's going to plummet.

Attendance isn't your problem, sickbeast, so don't worry too much about that.

It becomes our problem as fans because it forces them to lower the payroll if attendance tanks.  And it will next season for sure.  I guess they could lower ticket prices.  But I would be shocked to see them do that.  They should never have raised the ticket prices to begin with.

 

[Kin]

If the Jays blow up the team to rebuild, payroll will drop regardless as they shed contracts/trade pieces for futures. The only danger is if when it comes time to spend money again and the team is good, fans don't return. I don't think that's particularly likely.

 

[Joe S.]

I don?t know why Martin is getting a free pass. His defence is sub par and he can?t hit anymore. But he can sure frame the hell out of a pitch.