2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[Zee]

It's hard to imagine Boston not winning it all.  In terms of W/L and goal diff, they are insanely ahead of everyone.  Sure, upsets can happen.  But they are turning in the most flawless season since the MTL machine of the late 70s.  I can't stand the Bruins but I have to acknowledge how good they are right now.

I'm not speaking to you again until the season is over.

 

[cw]

It's hard to imagine Boston not winning it all.  In terms of W/L and goal diff, they are insanely ahead of everyone.  Sure, upsets can happen.  But they are turning in the most flawless season since the MTL machine of the late 70s.  I can't stand the Bruins but I have to acknowledge how good they are right now.

They have the best odds to win a Cup. No question.

8 of the best win% seasons in NHL history are by the Bruins. They only won 2 Cups. They lost an .875 win% season (best win% ever) in 1930 finals. Bobby Orr & the 1971 Bruins lost a .776 win% season (9th best) in the 1st round.

Of the top 50 win% seasons in NHL history, ~38% won Cups. Many of those were two rounds or less than four rounds. So the percentage today is probably considerably less due to four rounds. I've seen odds around 22% for the Bruins - those are probably not far off.

I don't know how up to date this stat is: Only 8 of 33 (24%) President's Cup winners went on to win the Stanley Cup.

I've seen odds for our Leafs at 7%-10% - reality is probably a bigger range than that depending on the oddsmaker. A couple of teams not including the Bruins are ahead of them.

That is part of what is exciting about the playoffs. Teams put their best roster together. But when they compete: hot goaltending, bad calls, injuries, bad bounces/luck, freak good performances, etc factor in to decide the series.

Kyle Dubas has pulled out most of the stops. He has a top 4 team. Tampa is also a pretty good team. If Vasilevskiy gets hot, even the Bruins would have trouble beating them. If winning a round is the criteria for Dubas to keep his job, he has roughly a 50% chance of being here next year on that series alone. It might be decided by a bad call, injuries, bad bounces, etc. That is part of the spectacle and the drama.

That same bad stuff can happen to a good Bruins team. As a Leafs fan, I'm hoping it does.

 

[princedpw]

No matter how good Boston?s regular season record, if the wager is Boston vs the field, I take the field to win the cup.  They are still only one fluky Bergeron injury away from being merely good.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Tavares in extra grey? Wonder if he's banged up from Sat. I think if ROR is on the IR the Leafs can use Holmberg or Steeves as an emergency loan because they'll be under 12 forwards, no?

I don't believe the non-COVID emergency is position specific in that way. Teams just need to be able to dress 18 healthy skaters, which the Leafs can. They'd also have to had played a game with less than 18 skaters to qualify for it.

I'm pretty sure it's still the 12F, 6D, 2G setup unless they changed it last CBA?

The CBA says - and has always said - 18 skaters.

THe 12/6 part was only for COVID related emergencies or when teams have cap room. Neither of those situations apply to the Leafs.

Thx busta

Ok so if it's not 12F, 6D, 2G then why are Holmberg and Steeves listed as Emergency Loan with ROR on LTIR? If it was just the 18 skaters, Leafs have plenty but with ROR and Tavares out they have 10F. What am I missing.

 

[herman]

Ok so if it's not 12F, 6D, 2G then why are Holmberg and Steeves listed as Emergency Loan with ROR on LTIR? If it was just the 18 skaters, Leafs have plenty but with ROR and Tavares out they have 10F. What am I missing.

Emergency recall post-deadline is unrelated to the emergency exception stipulated above. It is just a response provision for the recall limit imposed post-deadline with the expanded rosters.

 

[cw]

No matter how good Boston?s regular season record, if the wager is Boston vs the field, I take the field to win the cup.  They are still only one fluky Bergeron injury away from being merely good.

That would be a good bet
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/updated-stanley-cup-odds-how-trade-deadline-impacted-contending-teams/
Betting odds for 2023 Stanley Cup champion as of March 6:
Boston +362 (Bruins opened at +2200)
Colorado +613 (Avalanche opened at +400)
Carolina +738 (Hurricanes opened at +1400)
Toronto +832 (Maple Leafs opened at +800)
New Jersey +1058 (Devils opened at +7500)
NY Rangers +1260 (Rangers opened at +2000)

Chance of winning:
https://www.covers.com/tools/odds-converter
Boston 21.65% (78.35% chance Bruins do not win the Cup)
Colorado 14.03%
Carolina 11.93%
Toronto 10.73% (89.27% chance Leafs do not win the Cup)
New Jersey 8.64%
NY Rangers 7.35%

Five of the six teams with the best odds are in the East - which reduces their individual chances.
Also, the above numbers get affected by betting dollars so they're not absolutely pure on the raw chances to win.

 

[bustaheims]

Ok so if it's not 12F, 6D, 2G then why are Holmberg and Steeves listed as Emergency Loan with ROR on LTIR? If it was just the 18 skaters, Leafs have plenty but with ROR and Tavares out they have 10F. What am I missing.

With ROR on LTIR, the Leafs now have the available cap space to use the standard Emergency Loan instead of the Roster Emergency Exception.

 

[Bill33]

Also, the above numbers get affected by betting dollars so they're not absolutely pure on the raw chances to win.

I'd go further than that and say that betting lines are completely irrelevant to the "raw chances" to win. They're only correlated to hedging the gambling public. Maybe it'll correlate, maybe it won't.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1633153285166096385

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1633153285166096385

So 4 weeks puts us at April 4th, this is what's left on the Leafs schedule.  6 games left, could have been worse.

 

[Bill33]

So 4 weeks puts us at April 4th, this is what's left on the Leafs schedule.  6 games left, could have been worse.

Yeah, that's just about perfect, in terms of getting back up to game speed. And I would assume (legit question mark) that he could still skate non-contact and keep his fitness up.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah, that's just about perfect, in terms of getting back up to game speed. And I would assume (legit question mark) that he could still skate non-contact and keep his fitness up.

He might be advised to stay off skates for a bit, but he can definitely do other activities (bike, treadmill, etc.) to keep up his fitness.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Yeah, that's just about perfect, in terms of getting back up to game speed. And I would assume (legit question mark) that he could still skate non-contact and keep his fitness up.

He might be advised to stay off skates for a bit, but he can definitely do other activities (bike, treadmill, etc.) to keep up his fitness.

But can he still play the guitar on road trips

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah, that's just about perfect, in terms of getting back up to game speed. And I would assume (legit question mark) that he could still skate non-contact and keep his fitness up.

He might be advised to stay off skates for a bit, but he can definitely do other activities (bike, treadmill, etc.) to keep up his fitness.

But can he still play the guitar on road trips

Might have some issues there.

 

[Bill33]

Yeah, that's just about perfect, in terms of getting back up to game speed. And I would assume (legit question mark) that he could still skate non-contact and keep his fitness up.

He might be advised to stay off skates for a bit, but he can definitely do other activities (bike, treadmill, etc.) to keep up his fitness.

But can he still play the guitar on road trips

Might have some issues there.

Drop D barre chords only.

 

[louisstamos]

Yeah, that's just about perfect, in terms of getting back up to game speed. And I would assume (legit question mark) that he could still skate non-contact and keep his fitness up.

He might be advised to stay off skates for a bit, but he can definitely do other activities (bike, treadmill, etc.) to keep up his fitness.

But can he still play the guitar on road trips

Might have some issues there.

Drop D barre chords only.

So lots of Days of the New?

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah, that's just about perfect, in terms of getting back up to game speed. And I would assume (legit question mark) that he could still skate non-contact and keep his fitness up.

He might be advised to stay off skates for a bit, but he can definitely do other activities (bike, treadmill, etc.) to keep up his fitness.

But can he still play the guitar on road trips

Might have some issues there.

Drop D barre chords only.

So lots of Days of the New?

There?s a wide range of mediocre 90s alt rock options available.

 

[cw]

I glanced again at the bottom feeders to see if there was a left wing/forward that was .5ppg or better who wasn't a talented kid they were developing and could plausibly fit under the cap with up to 50% retention if needed. Az & Detroit had maxed on their retentions. Could have missed someone but I did not see much that was obvious to me. I was a little surprised it was that hard to find a left wing who could help and fit under the cap.

 

[herman]

I glanced again at the bottom feeders to see if there was a left wing/forward that was .5ppg or better who wasn't a talented kid they were developing and could plausibly fit under the cap with up to 50% retention if needed. Az & Detroit had maxed on their retentions. Could have missed someone but I did not see much that was obvious to me. I was a little surprised it was that hard to find a left wing who could help and fit under the cap.

If he was on a different team, Kerfoot would've been a target lol

 

[cw]

I glanced again at the bottom feeders to see if there was a left wing/forward that was .5ppg or better who wasn't a talented kid they were developing and could plausibly fit under the cap with up to 50% retention if needed. Az & Detroit had maxed on their retentions. Could have missed someone but I did not see much that was obvious to me. I was a little surprised it was that hard to find a left wing who could help and fit under the cap.

If he was on a different team, Kerfoot would've been a target lol

A transaction that would never finish ...