2022 NHL Draft Discussion
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
https://twitter.com/joshuakloke/status/1545243790503514113
Ostlund and Ohgren both went a little earlier than some expected. Del Bel Belluz, Beck, or Firkus would seem like guys on the Leafs' radar for 38.
Ostlund and Ohgren both went a little earlier than some expected. Del Bel Belluz, Beck, or Firkus would seem like guys on the Leafs' radar for 38.
Kin
New member
Obviously the continuing need to sacrifice draft capital to get out of bad contracts isn't ideal and when you combine it with the outlay of draft capital on deadline deals that haven't proven successful it leads to kind of a lousy spot prospect-wise. It's not a good thing obviously and it re-enforces what I've been saying for a while now. Dubas' drafts need to start looking good. Gems need to start being unearthed.
Otherwise, his argument for holding onto his job starts looking pretty thin. For the amount of resources at his disposal the Leafs should be expecting top-tier performance from the C-Suite. Is there a compelling case to be made he's delivered anywhere? Has he been a wizard at getting guys to re-sign team friendly contracts? No. Has his team construction via trade/UFA signings proven particularly adept? No. So drafting is what he has left. Ordinarily I'm very much of the "Don't fire someone just to fire them. Only fire them if you can make the case that the replacement is better" but if Dubas seems determined to prove himself a C student then at some point you just accept that's what he is and you're probably better off turning to another bright young unknown and see if he can show up with a slightly more impressive report card.
That said, we should keep this move in perspective. It didn't "cost the Leafs a 1st round pick". Moving from 25 to 38, realistically, could maybe be assumed to net a team a high 3rd or maybe very low 2nd. That's the cost here. To say otherwise is a bit like saying that trading a 20 dollar bill for a 10 and a 5 cost you twenty bucks. To be fair, even a mid 3rd shouldn't be written off as nothing for a team in need of a stronger prospect base.
To be honest, I'm a little concerned about this deal from another perspective. Just yesterday we had Dubas saying things that seemed pretty sensible about Mrazek about how it would be kind of ridiculous to think this one awful year is more representative of who he is than his multiple years of solid play. Which, if true, why make the move? If you sign someone to a multi-year deal thinking "If the first year of this deal goes terribly, I'll try to trade out of it at the cost of picks" then you probably shouldn't sign that deal in the first place. The Leafs cap situation isn't a surprise here so this attitude towards Mrazek does not seem indicative of solid long-term thinking to say nothing of Mrazek's short term performance.
I think I've been fair with Dubas. I generally speaking think he's a bright guy and like him a lot better than some of the stuck in their way hockey lifers we've seen here and around the league. To some extent I think that's driven my "draft a CHL Centre" stuff because I really do think that's the safest option and even a 15 goal, 40 point guy at this point would be something like a feather in his cap. Because if he keeps taking big swings and misses, at some point, you just come to the conclusion that he's not much of a hitter.
Otherwise, his argument for holding onto his job starts looking pretty thin. For the amount of resources at his disposal the Leafs should be expecting top-tier performance from the C-Suite. Is there a compelling case to be made he's delivered anywhere? Has he been a wizard at getting guys to re-sign team friendly contracts? No. Has his team construction via trade/UFA signings proven particularly adept? No. So drafting is what he has left. Ordinarily I'm very much of the "Don't fire someone just to fire them. Only fire them if you can make the case that the replacement is better" but if Dubas seems determined to prove himself a C student then at some point you just accept that's what he is and you're probably better off turning to another bright young unknown and see if he can show up with a slightly more impressive report card.
That said, we should keep this move in perspective. It didn't "cost the Leafs a 1st round pick". Moving from 25 to 38, realistically, could maybe be assumed to net a team a high 3rd or maybe very low 2nd. That's the cost here. To say otherwise is a bit like saying that trading a 20 dollar bill for a 10 and a 5 cost you twenty bucks. To be fair, even a mid 3rd shouldn't be written off as nothing for a team in need of a stronger prospect base.
To be honest, I'm a little concerned about this deal from another perspective. Just yesterday we had Dubas saying things that seemed pretty sensible about Mrazek about how it would be kind of ridiculous to think this one awful year is more representative of who he is than his multiple years of solid play. Which, if true, why make the move? If you sign someone to a multi-year deal thinking "If the first year of this deal goes terribly, I'll try to trade out of it at the cost of picks" then you probably shouldn't sign that deal in the first place. The Leafs cap situation isn't a surprise here so this attitude towards Mrazek does not seem indicative of solid long-term thinking to say nothing of Mrazek's short term performance.
I think I've been fair with Dubas. I generally speaking think he's a bright guy and like him a lot better than some of the stuck in their way hockey lifers we've seen here and around the league. To some extent I think that's driven my "draft a CHL Centre" stuff because I really do think that's the safest option and even a 15 goal, 40 point guy at this point would be something like a feather in his cap. Because if he keeps taking big swings and misses, at some point, you just come to the conclusion that he's not much of a hitter.
OldTimeHockey
Active member
Nik said:
This is how I feel as well. I realize that a drafted player is done so based on their potential, but the desire to unearth that player with "huge upside" that 30 other teams don't have a ton of interest in is getting quite old. I don't know that it's necessarily just a Dubas problem, though there does seem to be a pattern developing.
https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1545402666188124160
Also probably "why is my phone not working?".
Also probably "why is my phone not working?".
Guilt Trip
Active member
Agree and so far for me, some good work to add 3.8M to the cap. The cost was very little.Frank E said:
Kin
New member
Frank E said:
To be clear, I'm criticizing Dubas for what the Mrazek signing ended up delivering for the club in the past tense. I'm not calling for him to go and, sure, he's got another kick at the can of putting together a team for next year but there's nothing he can do this off-season that makes the Mrazek signing good.
At the same time I do think that last season was the worst possible outcome for Mrazek in any universe. The problem is it's hard to know how much he can bounce back and if they have more faith in Campbell now than when the deal was signed then I can understand wanting to sign the deal then but offload now considering Campbell needs to be paid.Nik said:
Guilt Trip
Active member
According to Earl Schwartz....Nik said:
https://twitter.com/EarlSchwartz27/status/1545266556686540800
And his view on Edm...
https://twitter.com/EarlSchwartz27/status/1545270288048340992
Kin
New member
Guilt Trip said:
Whatever "pick value model" he's been using for the last few years it's very different than the actual cost in the draft of moving up. We have pretty solid evidence of what moving from approximately 38 to 25 would cost a team and it's certainly not a 6th and a 7th.
Guilt Trip
Active member
Yes it is different and should be because it didn't cost the Leafs/Hawks a pick.Nik said:
Guilt Trip
Active member
It's not a big deal, just like the Leafs dropping 13 spots to gain 3.8 in cap space.Nik said:
I think the other thing to factor in here is that Mrazek could still be a #1b goalie on a team. Yes he had a bad year for the Leafs with injuries and inconsistency, but he could rebound on a different team. If he comes back this year and puts up good numbers on the Blackhawks, then this is an overpayment on the Leafs side, because it could have been a we give you this 6th round pick and you give us a 7th and lets call it a day, and that first round pick that the Leafs had could have been used to pick up a 2nd and 3rd.
Kin
New member
Guilt Trip said:
Whether or not it's a big deal we should at least be honest about the cost which, as Deebo illustrates, is very similar to the high 3rd/low 2nd I suggested in my post.
The problem with "trade value charts" is that they usually ignore the reality of draft picks as currency. While, yes, my post was written with the perspective of the team having a not very good prospect base because Dubas has been pretty cavalier about trading away picks and adding a prospect in that range would be good(particularly if Dubas ever starts earning his bonafides and uses 2nd and 3rd picks to produce useful NHL players) there's the additional reality of having that 2nd/3rd in your back pocket if you're looking to trade for a goalie or forward depth or whatever.