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2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

CarltonTheBear said:
I get Domi at C is clearly not the best spot for him, but with Tavares out I'm surprised he's still on the wing. Minten continues to not really look NHL ready. I'd rather see Domi at 3C, or maybe even 2C with Marner. That'd also open up a wing spot on the 3rd line for Steeves to try to show his stuff for a bit.
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When Matthews was out last playoffs, the first line was Bertuzzi-Domi-Marner, and they won both games he was out. So I certainly wouldn't be opposed to putting those two together again.
 
3rd line looks a lot better. I'd def swith up 88 and 16 though. That's way too much defensive responsibility for Holmberg. I like Kampf and Lorentz...on the 4th line.
 
Max is back and Stoli is on the ice and may get a game before the break. Knies skating but no contact. J.T is on the mend as well, probably back after the 4 Nations event that no one seems to want to watch.
 
herman said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1880367835148611748
Alright 13.16M AAV is fine, Marner.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1885360392907461028
13.16M AAV for 8 years against 95.5M for the first year is 13.78% of the cap.

Matthews 13.25M @ 88M cap: 15.06%
Nylander 11.5M @ 88M cap: 13.07%

But I doubt Marner's camp sees <14% of the cap as the target. He'll likely argue that on a longer term, matching Matthews' CH% on twice the term is a team-friendly deal --> ~14.38M AAV (115M total). He can probably get 14 with a contender @ 7 yrs (Carolina), and probably 15 with a current non-contender with cash (e.g. Chicago, Utah), which is 98M to 105M total.

On a recent 32T pod, Friedman noted that some teams will see these cap#s and balk at maxing out, and work with an internal cap irrespective of the Salary Cap. So the Leafs and other high rollers can see a bit of separation/advantage/opportunity to be stupid there in the coming years.
 
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Somewhat expected but those are crazy increases to finally see confirmed. I don't see Marner signing in the 13's if it's at max term.

The projected 27/28 cap floor ($83.9mil) will be higher than what the ceiling was last season ($83.5mil)
 
May finally be an advantage for the Leafs if other teams aren't willing to go to cap max. Assuming they don't continue to reset the standard of what guys get paid. Pay your guys fairly just don't go off the charts.
 
Barring action at this coming deadline, the Leafs have the following commitments for 2025-26
Forwards: 38.3M for 7 current NHLers
Defense: 22.2M for 6 players
Goalies: 6.2M for 2 tendies (steal)
for a total of ~ 67M out of 95.5

We'll need about 6 fwds, 2-3 def, 1 spare G maybe with nearly 30M to spend. Say we re-sign Marner and Tavares and Knies at their upper crust numbers (14+7+6), and that leaves 2ish M for 3 fwds, 3 def, 1 G
 
herman said:
Say we re-sign Marner and Tavares and Knies at their upper crust numbers (14+7+6), and that leaves 2ish M for 3 fwds, 3 def, 1 G
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Not sure where needing 3 D comes from with Rielly-Tanev-McCabe-OEL-Benoit-Myers already signed. They aren't carrying 9D of course. Definitely need one top-4ish guy though. They also aren't going to carry a 3rd goalie on the roster so that seems moot. Forward improvements would really need to rely on contributions from guys on ELCs like Minten/Cowan/Grebenkin which you obviously can't definitely bank on.

Using the numbers you said (which I think are fair), plus throwing Lorentz a $900k contract would give us:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
McMann-Tavares-Nylander
Domi-Minten-Jarnkrok
Lorentz-Kampf-Grebenkin
Reaves-Quillan

Rielly-McCabe
OEL-Tanev
Benoit-Myers
Rifai

Woll
Stolarz

That's a 23-man roster about $80k under the cap. With that said it means basically the same team we have right now which comes with the same issues/needs, namely C (unless Minten makes a big leap next season) and needing another defencemen to keep OEL on the 3rd pair. There's obviously potential to clear cap space with moving some expendable players like Domi, Jarnkrok, Kampff, Reaves, and Benoit of course.
 
I have Marner at $12.5m/8 years (this is what I think Marner should sing at). $6.75m/3 years for Tavares and I really think Knies should sign a bridge deal at $4m.

Leafs could free up $3-$4m by going with a 21-man roster and waiving Kampf and Järnkrok.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Not sure where needing 3 D comes
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I meant the ones they stash in the AHL that they always sign (Mermis, Myers, Lagesson, etc). Usually buried, safe to ignore.

CarltonTheBear said:
Definitely need one top-4ish guy though
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This, and the C issue, and how the the cap growth really just giving us the same team as now pushes the conversation towards a shake up being needed in the 2nd and 3rd tiers to try to gain some space for real 4D,3C.
 
Or we reallocate $14M for just one winger for better balance. This percentage of the cap thing is pissing me off for our stars. Our cap structure doesn't work let's not keep beating our head against the wall. If Marner wants $14+... goodbye. I would entertain fewer years for less cap hit.

What about that guy that fell off a cliff during the world JR's? Cowan.
 
herman said:
This, and the C issue, and how the the cap growth really just giving us the same team as now pushes the conversation towards a shake up being needed in the 2nd and 3rd tiers to try to gain some space for real 4D,3C.
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Absolutely. But you can definitely do some pretty aggressive cutting if Treliving commits to that. Domi, Kampf, Jarnkrok, Reaves, and Benoit combined is at $10.95mil right now. Can probably cut that in half and get the same contributions.

The 2026 offseason would be where the real craziness could happen for us. Another massive jump in cap space and no major re-signings to do. Jarnkrok and Reaves' deals come off the books, if they aren't moved before then. McMann would need a new deal, but that likely wouldn't be insane. Stolarz's contract would expire but fingers crossed at that point Hildeby could move into a full-time back-up role behind Woll. Could definitely see the team having $10mil in cap space to just spend on whatever they want then.
 
Marner will be 28 before his next contract kicks in. If he goes to UFA, any team can only give him 7 years. Is there a team willing to go $15million by 7? If so, Leafs can match the total contract money over 8 years with a $13.12million/year. Would Marner want to lock up to his 35/36 season or does he bet on himself, and no injuries and go short-term 4 years like Matthews? Time will tell.
 
Zee said:
Marner will be 28 before his next contract kicks in. If he goes to UFA, any team can only give him 7 years. Is there a team willing to go $15million by 7? If so, Leafs can match the total contract money over 8 years with a $13.12million/year. Would Marner want to lock up to his 35/36 season or does he bet on himself, and no injuries and go short-term 4 years like Matthews? Time will tell.
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They could do a sign and trade. Maybe he signs a shorter deal like Matthews and then will get another one later on. There are options to making your money.
 
dappleganger said:
I have Marner at $12.5m/8 years (this is what I think Marner should sing at). $6.75m/3 years for Tavares and I really think Knies should sign a bridge deal at $4m.

Leafs could free up $3-$4m by going with a 21-man roster and waiving Kampf and Järnkrok.
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If they can sign Mitch for that great but I don't see it. Too much for JT I think if they can get that down to 6 and sweeten it with some kind of position when he retires be good. Time to build a better roster as we are seeing the effects of a crappy bottom 6 and farm system. But in Leafland probably not going happen.
 
You could have a scrub at near league minimum to replace Domi.

Reaves to the minors there's almost $1M gone.

Kampf $2.4M could be replaced by half the cost.

Jarnkrok probably save around $1.5M.

Cheap out on the bottom end of the roster.

I'm trading Morgan Rielly before letting Marner walk.

Marner has been very durable during his career.

Find another Marner. Good luck.
 
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