2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[herman]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/four-mitch-marner-trades-the-maple-leafs-could-consider/
The Kyper/Bourne/Friedman clip at the head of this article from this full segment (10:00ish min in):
[youtube]dX_j8gpir6M[/youtube]
NK: I know there's teams out there that have already put in calls in for Mitch Marner
[...]
If he gets a number for a place he can envision being in the next 8 years, the deal gets done this summer.


I also don't hate most of the suggestions proffered by Dixon, but I'll save that for the Armchair GM thread.

 

[mr grieves]

You see how he plays out next season. My guess is he?ll go the Nylander route and put up gangbuster points. If he does you sign him to a reasonable contract BUT that contract CANNOT have a no-trade clause . That?s a dealbreaker for the Leafs. Even if the deal has a 10 team list he provides each year, it provides an out for the Leafs if needed.

Nearly all the players in Marner's salary range who have come to UFA age are getting a NMC or have a NMC. There are exceptions to every rule but I doubt Marner or most other UFAs of his caliber will make that exception. Most contending teams seems to have a few of them.

Kucherov and Herman submit 10-team lists.
Hertl and Karlsson submit lists
Rantanan and Manson submit lists.
Gallagher, Anderson, and Dvorak submit lists.
JT Miller and Tyler Myers submit lists.
Fiala and Doughty submit lists.
Ovechkin, Oshie, and Carlson submit lists.
Zuccarello and Bogosian submit lists.
Pasta's NMC becomes a list, Marchand, Coyle, Zacha, Carlo all submit lists
Letang's NMC becomes a NT list
Zibanejad, Kreider, Trocheck, Trouba are all either submitting lists or have NMC's that expire
And so on.

The list of ironclad NMCs isn't that long.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The list of ironclad NMCs isn't that long.

Per Capfriendly there have been 21 contracts that carried an AAV of $10mil or above, starting of course with the Kane and Toews extensions signed 10 years ago. In those 21 contracts there were a total of 130 contract years that were eligible for no trade/move protection. 116 of those 130 years carried full no movement clauses, the others had limited no trade clauses. Absolutely best case scenario would be something like the Pasta or Huberdeau deals and the first 5 or 6 years of an 8 year deal would be covered with a NMC still.

 

[herman]

Kucherov and Herman submit 10-team lists.
Hertl and Karlsson submit lists
Rantanan and Manson submit lists.
Gallagher, Anderson, and Dvorak submit lists.
JT Miller and Tyler Myers submit lists.
Fiala and Doughty submit lists.
Ovechkin, Oshie, and Carlson submit lists.
Zuccarello and Bogosian submit lists.
Pasta's NMC becomes a list, Marchand, Coyle, Zacha, Carlo all submit lists
Letang's NMC becomes a NT list
Zibanejad, Kreider, Trocheck, Trouba are all either submitting lists or have NMC's that expire
And so on.

The list of ironclad NMCs isn't that long.

Fanbases I would accept a trade to if y'all feel a pressing need to get rid of me:
[*] Seattle - love their nerds
[*] Colorado - HIGH ALTITUDE. HIGH OCTANE. HIGH STRUNG.
[*] San Jose - I like their colours
[*] Anaheim - just vibes, who cares about performance
[*] Vegas - another evil empire, but actually able to win
[*] Florida - I like how they play
[*] Tampa - You know, another rebuild might be fun
[*] Carolina - chaos is fun
[*] Dallas - fast break hockey with some slow guys lol
[*] Minnesota - once they finally get out of those buy outs, watch out!

 

[Arn]

With the benefit of a few days and letting the latest loss sink in, I think we performed about where the team was. It was never as good as some of the last few years in terms of make up, and was barely improved at the deadline.

What I?d like to see happen is a new coach.

A slight change in the make up of D to make it more mobile and balanced around the big units.

Trade Reaves and Kampf.

Continue to spread Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander across 3 or even 4 lines, possibly with Tavares on the wing.

Woll as one goalie, Murray given the chance to be the ?3rd goalie? on a minimum contract and find someone to platoon with Woll.

 

[cw]

You see how he plays out next season. My guess is he?ll go the Nylander route and put up gangbuster points. If he does you sign him to a reasonable contract BUT that contract CANNOT have a no-trade clause . That?s a dealbreaker for the Leafs. Even if the deal has a 10 team list he provides each year, it provides an out for the Leafs if needed.

Nearly all the players in Marner's salary range who have come to UFA age are getting a NMC or have a NMC. There are exceptions to every rule but I doubt Marner or most other UFAs of his caliber will make that exception. Most contending teams seems to have a few of them.

Kucherov and Herman submit 10-team lists.
Hertl and Karlsson submit lists
Rantanan and Manson submit lists.
Gallagher, Anderson, and Dvorak submit lists.
JT Miller and Tyler Myers submit lists.
Fiala and Doughty submit lists.
Ovechkin, Oshie, and Carlson submit lists.
Zuccarello and Bogosian submit lists.
Pasta's NMC becomes a list, Marchand, Coyle, Zacha, Carlo all submit lists
Letang's NMC becomes a NT list
Zibanejad, Kreider, Trocheck, Trouba are all either submitting lists or have NMC's that expire
And so on.

The list of ironclad NMCs isn't that long.

There are around 78 pure NMC on NHL rosters for 2023-24 according to Cap Friendly
Rebuilding teams tend to have fewer
Larger market teams tend to have more.
That ignores full no trade clauses ()NTC's without condition)

For example, it does not count Larkin of the Wings who has full no trade for 5 years. Then it changes. to M-NTC
Same for Horvat for first 4 years, There are a lot of players with contracts like that - that change over time.

I'd guesstimate very roughly about 20% of the league can't be moved via trade to any other NHL team without the player's permission in a given year.

 

[Guilt Trip]

With the benefit of a few days and letting the latest loss sink in, I think we performed about where the team was. It was never as good as some of the last few years in terms of make up, and was barely improved at the deadline.

What I?d like to see happen is a new coach.

A slight change in the make up of D to make it more mobile and balanced around the big units.

Trade Reaves and Kampf.

Continue to spread Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander across 3 or even 4 lines, possibly with Tavares on the wing.

Woll as one goalie, Murray given the chance to be the ?3rd goalie? on a minimum contract and find someone to platoon with Woll.

Jarnkrok should be at the top of the list of guys to move. Reaves can be buried in the minors.

 

[Frank E]

Has the voting been completed for the awards? 

It would sure be nice if they got Bowness the Jack Adams.

Voting on everything other than the Conn Smythe is finalized between the end of the season and the beginning of the playoffs.

Well then, he should have retired before game 1. 

His fault.

 

[Arn]

With the benefit of a few days and letting the latest loss sink in, I think we performed about where the team was. It was never as good as some of the last few years in terms of make up, and was barely improved at the deadline.

What I?d like to see happen is a new coach.

A slight change in the make up of D to make it more mobile and balanced around the big units.

Trade Reaves and Kampf.

Continue to spread Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander across 3 or even 4 lines, possibly with Tavares on the wing.

Woll as one goalie, Murray given the chance to be the ?3rd goalie? on a minimum contract and find someone to platoon with Woll.

Jarnkrok should be at the top of the list of guys to move. Reaves can be buried in the minors.

Yes him too actually. I think you could get something back, even if it?s a late round draft pick, for Reaves but if not no problem burying him.

 

[Joe S.]

Why is it that I?m seeing next to nothing about ?playoff? Bertuzzi and his 5.5 mil? All season I kept reading that he was brought in for the playoffs, just wait for the playoffs. But Marner needs to be shot out of a canon.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Why is it that I?m seeing next to nothing about ?playoff? Bertuzzi and his 5.5 mil? All season I kept reading that he was brought in for the playoffs, just wait for the playoffs. But Marner needs to be shot out of a canon.

Far less emotional investment in Bertuzzi.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Why is it that I?m seeing next to nothing about ?playoff? Bertuzzi and his 5.5 mil? All season I kept reading that he was brought in for the playoffs, just wait for the playoffs. But Marner needs to be shot out of a canon.

I mean Bert had more points (4 to 3), generally showed a little more tenacity especially against Marchand, and makes half what Mitch does. Like right or wrong it at least makes sense why Marner took a lot more heat.

With that said I'm a little less tempted to re-sign Bertuzzi after that run. I did expect a little more from him in the playoffs and we've got Knies and McMann on the LW already with potentially Tavares moving over (remains to be seen still of course) and Cowan eventually coming up. Signing him for a chunk of his 30s probably isn't necessary.

 

[Bender]

Why is it that I?m seeing next to nothing about ?playoff? Bertuzzi and his 5.5 mil? All season I kept reading that he was brought in for the playoffs, just wait for the playoffs. But Marner needs to be shot out of a canon.

I mean Bert had more points (4 to 3), generally showed a little more tenacity especially against Marchand, and makes half what Mitch does. Like right or wrong it at least makes sense why Marner took a lot more heat.

With that said I'm a little less tempted to re-sign Bertuzzi after that run. I did expect a little more from him in the playoffs and we've got Knies and McMann on the LW already with potentially Tavares moving over (remains to be seen still of course) and Cowan eventually coming up. Signing him for a chunk of his 30s probably isn't necessary.

I like Bertuzzi but absolutely not at $6M+

 

[Arn]

Yeah of the 2 I?d hang on to Domi and let Bert find somewhere else.

I don?t dislike Bert, but he could probably get himself more term and/or $$$ somewhere else

 

[herman]

Why is it that I?m seeing next to nothing about ?playoff? Bertuzzi and his 5.5 mil? All season I kept reading that he was brought in for the playoffs, just wait for the playoffs. But Marner needs to be shot out of a canon.

Criticism/Heat is a function of expectations, and it's harder to meet or exceed expectations when you carry a 11M cap hit. Marner gave an Alex Kerfoot-esque playoff performance. A good Alex Kerfoot performance, mind you, but Alex Kerfoot level nonetheless.

Bertuzzi was brought in to muck it up, and muck it up he did, mostly nullifying Marchand's antics.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I expected a lot more out of Bert. You can get a guy to muck it up for a lot less then what he'll seek. I'd take Bert back but only at a pay cut which isn't likely to happen.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah of the 2 I?d hang on to Domi and let Bert find somewhere else.

I don?t dislike Bert, but he could probably get himself more term and/or $$$ somewhere else

Same. He showed he can be a decent secondary scoring option, but that money should probably used to bolster other areas or be spent more efficiently. Two ~$3M forwards might be more valuable than one ~$6M guy - especially if one is a solid two-way 3rd line C

 

[herman]

I expected a lot more out of Bert. You can get a guy to muck it up for a lot less then what he'll seek. I'd take Bert back but only at a pay cut which isn't likely to happen.

I'm good to let Bert walk too. Would like to find more Knieses and McManns.

 

[cw]

A GM has a duty to look at all the alternatives.
Looking at what alternatives there are for Marner and Tavares contracts are some of those duties.

He can kick things around with Marner's agent who is reputed to want his players to test free agency.
He can kick deals around with other NHL GMs on potential sign and trade.

He has to be careful how he goes about it because Marner could take it the wrong way - and say "F U I'm counting the days to free agency like my agent wants. I'll go where I'm wanted and is desirable for me."

In that situation, it is hard to see how they fully recover the loss of his talent with a sign and trade. I don't just mean on the total return. The timing of the talent return is also quite important. Getting a 1st round pick doesn't help a lot now because Matthews-Nylander window is now and will largely be closed by the time the 1st round pick is pulling his weight.

As well, the timing of a sign and trade happens after July 1 so they're going to miss some of the UFA fireworks for this year with whatever cap space they might get. Then you look at what they'll spend it on. There are no top UFA goalies. UFA dmen are not deep and whatever there are now will drop off before July 1 as teams sign them up. They don't have a lot of young assets to trade and they need them to help with the cap.

If I had to bet on it, their best chance at a parade is building around Matthews-Nylander-Marner.
Marner may be so ticked off that may not be an option any longer. Hope not. In a years time, Tavares contract is gone and you have three of the top forwards in the league to take your runs. That is not a bad place to be.

 

[cw]

I expected a lot more out of Bert. You can get a guy to muck it up for a lot less then what he'll seek. I'd take Bert back but only at a pay cut which isn't likely to happen.

I'm good to let Bert walk too. Would like to find more Knieses and McManns.

I'm indifferent on Bert too. I would not sign for $5 mil or long term which I think is what he wants. I felt he came in part to boost his stats to help him get a multi year deal. Some other team will undoubtedly sign him. I'd rather they spend on goaltending and defense.

We are seeing signs of them them beating the bushes. a couple of Benoit & McMann caliber players could really help their cap situation.