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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

Frank E said:
Anybody think we should amalgamate this thread with the "armchair" thread?

Amalgamation was just a scam to dilute urban needs with suburban wishes.

On topic though: this thread is about what happened and reactions. The armchair thread is about theorizing and wishing and manifesting into reality. Pretty easy distinction in my mind.
 
What's happening right now is Florida wiping the floor with Boston.  We are so far away from being a real contender.
 
https://x.com/leafs_truth/status/1789645062780907547
Legitimately chortled when I saw this part of the video. But he did crack a smile when they joked about Mangiapane and Severson.

Kampf and Holmberg are also playing at Worlds.
 
herman said:
In the regular season, the Leafs feast on getting into the slot and generating a bajillion chances there. It works because penalties get called and teams aren't going to spend the regular season routinely paying playoff prices in the slot.

Different game come April-June: teams that can get behind defenses with regularity are the ones that cash in. Under Keefe, the Leafs pick their way up the ice for control at the cost of letting defenses get set up. One bobbled pass or a mis-timed pass across the top of the OZ and we're looking at an ugly rush chance against.

Valuable players for that environment (and all seasons): skaters who can control the puck across the NZ, guys who can get to board battles first and get pucks into the middle, players who are comfortable and successful with lateral puck movement. Probably best to use the regular season to set up your playoff style game patterns (at like 80-85% effort) so it's instinctive and reflexive.

This is what I wanted last offseason for the path forward. I still want it because they didn't really get fully there.

New coach has to be aligned with the roster Treliving wants to build. Regardless of where you stand on snot and whatnot, a team committed to an identity is going to be more effective than one that doesn't know what it should be (which is the Leafs these past 4 seasons).

Then start moving on from the core personnel and prospects that aren't built for that type of game, whether it gets done this offseason or next.

I don't mean a full abandonment of skilled players, but re-focusing on the skills that are playoff-ready:
[*] ability to play through contact, be it through size, style, or guile
[*] willing to sacrifice aesthetics for effectiveness
[*] skills to extend plays, sow chaos, convert on sloppy opportunities
[*] improves the conditions of the puck

Let's be fasstholes; let's be fasstholes all year round.
 
herman said:
herman said:
In the regular season, the Leafs feast on getting into the slot and generating a bajillion chances there. It works because penalties get called and teams aren't going to spend the regular season routinely paying playoff prices in the slot.

Different game come April-June: teams that can get behind defenses with regularity are the ones that cash in. Under Keefe, the Leafs pick their way up the ice for control at the cost of letting defenses get set up. One bobbled pass or a mis-timed pass across the top of the OZ and we're looking at an ugly rush chance against.

Valuable players for that environment (and all seasons): skaters who can control the puck across the NZ, guys who can get to board battles first and get pucks into the middle, players who are comfortable and successful with lateral puck movement. Probably best to use the regular season to set up your playoff style game patterns (at like 80-85% effort) so it's instinctive and reflexive.

This is what I wanted last offseason for the path forward. I still want it because they didn't really get fully there.

New coach has to be aligned with the roster Treliving wants to build. Regardless of where you stand on snot and whatnot, a team committed to an identity is going to be more effective than one that doesn't know what it should be (which is the Leafs these past 4 seasons).

Then start moving on from the core personnel and prospects that aren't built for that type of game, whether it gets done this offseason or next.

I don't mean a full abandonment of skilled players, but re-focusing on the skills that are playoff-ready:
[*] ability to play through contact, be it through size, style, or guile
[*] willing to sacrifice aesthetics for effectiveness
[*] skills to extend plays, sow chaos, convert on sloppy opportunities
[*] improves the conditions of the puck

Let's be fasstholes; let's be fasstholes all year round.

I agree with all of this, but if we're going that route, we need to make a play to get Gregory Campbell from the Florida Panthers.  His dad is technically George Parros' superior, so that way the Leafs would get away with being fasstholes. :P
 
louisstamos said:
I agree with all of this, but if we're going that route, we need to make a play to get Gregory Campbell from the Florida Panthers.  His dad is technically George Parros' superior, so that way the Leafs would get away with being fasstholes. :P

We must leverage every resource at our disposal! But I think he'll have to be an office hire (no salary cap there...). Shane Doan could also hold some development sessions about this.
 
herman said:
https://twitter.com/APetrielli/status/1790091076897779943

I know it's kind of a "don't touch it" subject, but now that Nylander has his new deal, maybe it's time to 2C him.

It wasn't going to work well in a contract year, but he's got a ton of runway here to give it a real shot.

 
L K said:
What's happening right now is Florida wiping the floor with Boston.  We are so far away from being a real contender.

That is why I do not get some of the handwringing with the loss to Boston.
The writing was very arguably on the wall last summer.
What credible folks had the Leafs listed as a "real contender" this season?

I hoped the Leafs would face the Bruins in the 1st round because I doubted they had much of a chance against Florida.
 
Guilt Trip said:
Highlander said:
Ya, Willie may grow into the new Sundin.
Thats pretty funny.

A right handed Swedish first round centre with a history of international tournament and Maple Leafs success, and a hairline trending towards the occipital lobe?
 
[youtube]kFpuQm3Eqxs[/youtube]
Your mileage with SDPN may vary; I'm generally not into their opinions (it's hard to generate that much content!), but recognize they do have connections to the organization. I finally got to it yesterday (the duration is off-puttingly long lol)

Adam is of the opinion, through the conversations he's had with org sources, that Marner was preparing to be traded last season, i.e. Dubas was going to trade him before the NMC kicked in due to the playoff patterns, but got canned for his powerplay against Shanahan, who in turn immediately reached out to Core players reassuring them they would not be trading them following Dubas' firing (1:05ish and on).

Even Jonas Siegel, who has been a huge proponent of Marner deserving the 10.9M and more salary, has turned.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5472284/2024/05/05/maple-leafs-playoffs-game-7/
Marner?s poor start to the season was notable for how joyless he appeared, how devoid of enthusiasm and energy.

He finished with three points in seven games against the Bruins. He wasn?t the offensive difference-maker the Leafs needed him to be, especially early in the series when Nylander was absent.

He might be just as ready for a change as the Leafs are. He was prepared for the possibility last summer.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5473270/2024/05/06/maple-leafs-mitch-marner-future/
Reporters hear more than they write about, and occasionally will just use those anonymous notes to paint an analysis where you can sort of see the outline of what was shared with them.

 
Highlander said:
Marner to Rangers for Fox and a 1st

Is there another significantly worse "Fox" on the Rangers because there's quite literally 0 chance they're trading Adam for anything like this.
 
Highlander said:
Marner to Rangers for Fox and a 1st

Doesn't make sense to me.
Who will the Rangers offensive dman be?
Gustavsson?

I do not think Marner will provide a past Norris winner in his prime plus a 1st in return.
Probably the 1st should come with Marner to the Rangers

The 1st isn't like to help win a Cup during Matthews next 4 years.
They would have to trade it for a player closer to their prime in the next 4 years.

To me, there are a whole bunch of issues to overcome trying to move Marner:
- their negotiating position isn't great due to the media, playoff results, etc
- they have to find a team Marner is willing to go to
- they have to overcome Marner's agent's preference for his player to become a UFA
- they have to find a team where there is a talent fit and a way to work it into the other team's cap space
- whatever they come up with has to work within the Leafs cap space & talent mix
- they cannot rely on a lot of youth/picks coming back because it won't help Matthews et al in the next 4 years before Matthews contract expires - they would probably have to flip them
- the sign and trade can't happen before July 1st so some of the prime UFAs may be gone for next season before they get cap space from such a trade - which hurts in the short term
- if they get rid of Marner, they're losing Tavares contract next season. Tarares is the one who has really dived in the playoffs to .63ppg - so a Marner trade & age could have them potentially going from core 4 to core 2.
- the combination of the return on the trade plus cap space (UFA market is not great) is very likely a reduction in the overall talent on the NHL roster next season. They're trading the guy with the highest playoff ppg since he arrived ... to improve their scoring in the playoffs even thought the prior two playoff years were 3.43 & 3.00 GFA.
- that previous point contradicts this: Shanahan needs something to work quickly or he won't be getting renewed next year. Treliving is not far behind him in that regard. So those are also constraints on the deal: they have to deliver in the playoffs soon.

To me, the heavy odds are that this is a rubik's cube talent/cap problem that they won't be able to get the colors to line up like they have to - to make it work in the short time frame that they need.

I have doubts getting rid of your highest ppg playoff scorer will improve playoff offense. Particularly when that offense delivered 3.43GFA and 3.00GFA in '23 & '22 and was hurt and in a more defensive posture against Pastrnak for '24.

To me, the biggest impact on this team going further in the playoffs would be adding a reliable goalie. Followed in short order by shoring up the team Dmen group - defensively & offensively. We knew that last summer. They have to plan on a 4 year window with Matthews. Dmen & goalies take the longest to develop. So they should try to make sure that foundation is quickly there. Forwards are far easier to add and integrate in a shorter window.
 
Are there any other teams that are as disgruntled with their team as much as the Leafs?

(I'm thinking as a potential trade partner)

 

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