2024 Offseason Thread: Changes
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
herman said:
I feel Knies underperformed quite a bit relative to expectations and to his position in the lineup along the side our top offensive players for most of the year. Compare Knies 15 goals in 80 games to 15/14 goals for McMann/Robertson in just 56 games each, many of which were with lesser linemates. Knies defense was also not one of his strengths.
I am unsure what the expected improvement curve for a guy his age with his experience is, but lets hope it is steep.
princedpw said:
He was thrown on the top line too quickly after the Bertuzzi experiment initially failed and I don't think he was quite ready for it. He wasn't a complete fish out of water but you could tell he was just a little bit off from being able to a) play with Matthews+Marner/Nylander and b) play against top competition.
But I also think he showed enough flashes to show why he'll be a great fit there down the line, and of course in playoffs showed that could happen sooner than later.
Frank E
Active member
CarltonTheBear said:
I know it's been said, but Knies looked like a different player in the playoffs...one of the few Leafs that really stepped up. He wasn't great during the season, but he sure showed up in the playoffs.
I hope he can play with that same intensity during the season next year.
CarltonTheBear said:
Power forwards seem to take longer to fully develop.
To play in the playoffs like he did, after only 1 NHL season ... that's pretty good.
You could see during the season the increased number of games he wasn't used to took a toll.
But he proved that was nothing he couldn't bounce back from.
He's likely to be that much better next year
herman
Well-known member
Wingers with Matthews-Marner tend to underperform individually. Bunting was a minor outlier in that he wasn?t putting numbers up unless he was with them.
Not only do they get the hardest defensive matchup usually, they also have to play F1, eat cross checks in front of the net, and then never see the puck again.
Not only do they get the hardest defensive matchup usually, they also have to play F1, eat cross checks in front of the net, and then never see the puck again.
princedpw said:
I think their biggest needs are a goalie and dmen
They had the 2nd best goals per game in 2023-24 but were 21st in goals against.
They had the 7th best PP but were 23rd on the PK.
UFA market for goalies is not great this year - some decent backups.
That appears to improve in 2024-25 but many could re-sign by then ..
Rielly, McCabe & Benoit have them in decent shape on the left side.
UFA market right now for dmen - which could change between now and July 1 - seems pretty good
I'd be looking hard at a couple or RHD from the top 6 UFA dmen on this list if they're still available July 1
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2025/toi/all/defense/ufa/desc/right?stats-season=2024&display=weight,height&hide=goalie-stats&limits=age-25-34,weight-189-300,gp-34-90,toi-16-40
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/ufa-projections-how-much-money-did-canucks-elias-lindholm-cost-himself-this-year
And a good backup from this UFA list
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2025/sv/all/goalies/ufa?stats-season=2024&display=weight,height&hide=skater-stats&limits=age-25-33,gp-10-90
Bullfrog
Active member
L K said:
Agreed that there's some grey area and there's room for argument each way.
However, a signing bonus needs to be a "bonus" I would think. I'm starting a new job in a month and am getting a true signing bonus. In my case, the bonus is irrespective of my salary. My salary is clearly separate.
In JT's case, it's easily arguable that his appropriate salary is far greater than the reported salary. So it's clearly just paying him in advance.
On the other hand, how is a bonus defined? I'm sure it's clear in the excise tax act, but I'm too lazy to look it up. Part of the bonus might not be the value, but the timing.
I'm confident the CRA will prevail, but maybe they cut a deal recognizing it's potentially grey and that JT is entitled to a sizable signing bonus. It'll likely come down to an argument of how much of his total remuneration is salary vs bonus. No way CRA will accept 75% bonus / 25% salary. This case will be precedent setting.
Bullfrog
Active member
herman said:Bullfrog said:
Well you asked how I could say it so confidently
But I'm not the only one who has observed this.
Bullfrog said:
I don't know how you can look at the rosters and the signings and the deployment under Dubas/Keefe and not see how that was the implicit design (and maybe explicit, I'm not in the dressing room). I don't know how you can hear Treliving's first comments being 'this is a team of 18' and the hiring of Berube as anything other than a direct response to how the team used to operate. Keefe was pretty consistently ride-or-die with Matthews-Marner and sacrificed good lines that were humming along to get Marner top minutes when he was puttering, and the team shed good depth players to keep this structure going.
That's fair. I don't fully agree, but definitely see your point. Once that amount of money was dedicated to so few players, there really isn't many options.
The ridiculous comment was how you phrased that they were basically told they're just time-killers. Every bottom-6 player knows their role. When you see MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, you know you're just filling time until they can get back on.
bustaheims
Active member
Broissoit, Stolarz, and maybe Kahkonen are the only UFA goalies with any real appeal as more than a 3rd string.
A few more potential options for RHD, but they'll be in high demand. Montour and Pesce would be my top targets, followed by DeMelo, Tanev, Walker, Myers, etc.
UFA market is pretty mediocre this year - which is pretty typical for most summers. A few standout wingers, which the Leafs aren't likely to be serious suitors for (thought, Toffoli would be a really nice add), but, outside of that, it's your standard middle and bottom of the lineup types, for the most part. Finding a couple affordable depth adds will be key.
A few more potential options for RHD, but they'll be in high demand. Montour and Pesce would be my top targets, followed by DeMelo, Tanev, Walker, Myers, etc.
UFA market is pretty mediocre this year - which is pretty typical for most summers. A few standout wingers, which the Leafs aren't likely to be serious suitors for (thought, Toffoli would be a really nice add), but, outside of that, it's your standard middle and bottom of the lineup types, for the most part. Finding a couple affordable depth adds will be key.
Arn
Active member
cw said:
I?d go along with this. Focus the fix on the back end. We probably need a bit more mobility to go with the size on D. Maybe someone with a decent shot.
Then I?m inclined to plug in Cowan and Minten in the top 3 lines and give them a long leash to learn the game next season.
I think we can still pretty much match this regular season then of course next season we either have Tavares or Marner cap hits gone or reduced or a mix of both. And Cowan and Minten have a full season of, eh, seasoning.
herman
Well-known member
Bullfrog said:
Congrats on the new job!
Hyperbole is a rhetorical device I
There's the usual understanding of role/depth players, but what I was alluding to was the apparent lack of actual meritocracy and clear caste system. MLHS points this out pretty regularly, when Keefe needs a goal he goes to the Core 4, irrespective of how the game leading up to that point went. So if Robertson or Domi or whoever had a great game and the stars were just dogging it, guess who still got the extra shifts?
Logistically, you could say they've only practiced 6-on-5 with that group, but that in and of itself is a coaching decision. Do they really need to wait for an injury or penalty to reward someone else for playing well? Is it fear of making the stars mad? How motivated are the stars to play better if they know their TOI is all but guaranteed? Is the offense system so finesse driven that only a certain caliber of player can excel with it? If so, is that the right choice in a hard cap environment (and on home ice that historical is slush most nights)?
This is where Berube has the track record, and the license from Treliving, to compose a different tune.
herman
Well-known member
bustaheims said:
I wouldn't go all out on UFA (ever), and would prefer the Leafs keep their powder dry -- i.e. leave cap room open to accrue for a deadline play when bad teams with good players are ready to deal, and really give the top-6F or top-4D a difference maker then. Play the kids in the first half and see who has staying power.
Arn said:
I didn't feel the roster could be fixed in short order.
They could shore up the D with some decent UFAs
Next year, when at least Tavares contract is gone, they can reassess Woll's fragility, Hideby's progress, the performance of the UFA backup/1B and go after a starter if all of those things don't deliver one.
Some of the cap price for the dmen will be paid by Bertuzzi's $5 mil. But Knies should be improved and a full season with McMann should help pick up Bertuzzi's contributions. Maybe Robertson or Cowan fill in the balance. They can still re-sign Domi for $3.5M or so.
Bringing Cowan & Minten in might help them contribute more during Matthews window before he becomes a UFA.
This could all easily fall apart if the CRA issue with Tavares prevails into the summer as I'm worried it will. After tax dollars could make it tough for CDN teams to be competitive with the US.
Bullfrog
Active member
herman said:
Thanks!
It'll be interesting to see how it pans out. I keep flip-flopping on Marner vs. 2 $6M players.
I generally lean more toward the Keefe way of things: a half-ass dogging Nylander/Matthews probably still gives you a better chance of scoring than a fired up Domi. I think the point that does have merit is this could be frustrating for the middle players who are busting their ass.
bustaheims
Active member
herman said:
If the Leafs' weren't in what should be their Cup run window, I'd agree, but, with where they are, they can't afford to sit on their hands and wait for the deadline - especially considering that's often when prices for players are at their silliest and cost more future assets the team cannot afford to expend. Better to have the significant pieces on the roster for the longer haul than plugging them in at the deadline. Cap space replenishes every season. Prospects and picks traded away do not. We're already experiencing the repercussions of that approach from the team's previous GM.
L K
Active member
I mean the problem with not going with the Core 4 was that our depth generally doesn't score. If you are trailing, what does putting out David Kampf do.
I think the bigger issue was a lack of lineup flexibility. If Robertson is having a good game, give him time with Marner/Matthews instead of just stagnating him on the same line. If the 1st PP unit has been playing like garbage for the last 15 games of the year, mix it up instead of just doing the same thing over and over again. Keefe was great at putting Marner on Matthews line when the game wasn't going well and I don't think he did a good job of doing other adjustments.
I think the bigger issue was a lack of lineup flexibility. If Robertson is having a good game, give him time with Marner/Matthews instead of just stagnating him on the same line. If the 1st PP unit has been playing like garbage for the last 15 games of the year, mix it up instead of just doing the same thing over and over again. Keefe was great at putting Marner on Matthews line when the game wasn't going well and I don't think he did a good job of doing other adjustments.