2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[cabber24]

$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.

The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he?s be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.

Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he?d be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

Here is cap forecast from Sep 2022, they were correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/

I do not understand why the Leafs continue to pay their stars so high. Is McKinnion an idiot or do the Leafs overpay? I think the Leafs overpay.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.

The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he?s be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.

Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he?d be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

Here is cap forecast from Sep 2022, they were correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/

I do not understand why the Leafs continue to pay their stars so high. Is McKinnion an idiot or do the Leafs overpay? I think the Leafs overpay.

Do you think some team would have given Matthews more than $13.25m?  I think some other team would have. 

 

[cabber24]

$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.

The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he?s be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.

Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he?d be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

Here is cap forecast from Sep 2022, they were correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/

I do not understand why the Leafs continue to pay their stars so high. Is McKinnion an idiot or do the Leafs overpay? I think the Leafs overpay.

Do you think some team would have given Matthews more than $13.25m?  I think some other team would have.

Honestly, I don't know why Matthews got the top cap hit on just a 4-year deal. If you're going to pay someone more than anyone else a reasonable term length would be assumed.

Agents to Leafs: "I want more than all my peers". Leafs GM's: "okay".

 

[herman]

[youtube]pB_ooxgMj78[/youtube]
[*] A bit of CapFriendly talk
[*] No new developments on Mitch Marner, but some discussion about the sensitivities involved; EF thinks Leafs FO doesn't want Marner at his (likely) asking price.
[*] EF: Keef was very careful when it came to Marner; curious if that would change under Berube
[*] they put Willy on the market and didn't like the offers
[*] unless Leafs can sell Marner on the change, EF thinks it goes into next season, as playing with Matthews is his best bet for a pay day
[*] Goalies: Markstrom they'd love but would be complicated and other teams are more likely; Brossoit makes sense but would need a solid 3rd. Believes Leafs will try to get the best goalie they can get.
[*] Suspects Vegas will be in on Marner
[*] UFA targets: multiple Defensemen and Leafs' cap room will make them a 'force' in this market; aiming for 2 big names
[*] Bertuzzi/Domi: if they don't sign, it'll be down to term


https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1800595075237367908

The Leafs had their eyes on Ferraro and Sharks forward Luke Kunin during the season and it?s entirely possible Toronto GM Brad Treliving circles back on both this off-season ? but he may have to work fast.

As I reported almost a month ago, if the Toronto Maple Leafs approach Mitch Marner about waiving his no-movement clause, he will consider his options. Nothing has changed, aside from a sneaking suspicion I have that the Leafs have an idea where he would consider moving to. Marner wants to stay in Toronto, but if the Leafs don?t want him, he?ll weigh things out.

https://x.com/nhl_watcher/status/1801024559849537584
- directly quoting the text he gets from Darren Ferris

 

[princedpw]

[*] UFA targets: multiple Defensemen and Leafs' cap room will make them a 'force' in this market; aiming for 2 big names
[*] Bertuzzi/Domi: if they don't sign, it'll be down to term

These sources are either bad at math or their ?big fish? are not the same as my big fish.  We don?t have enough cap space for Domi+Bertuzzi+2 good D+even a bad goalie who can play 50 games (assuming we keep Marner).

 

[Joe S.]

$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.

The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he?s be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.

Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he?d be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

Here is cap forecast from Sep 2022, they were correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/

I do not understand why the Leafs continue to pay their stars so high. Is McKinnion an idiot or do the Leafs overpay? I think the Leafs overpay.

Maybe I?m slow, but I don?t understand your point. If Mackinon were a UFA right now, he?d be looking for more than Matthews. I don?t see what that has to do with cap projections 2 years ago. The market gets reset every year when impact NHL players set the bar with whatever salary they ask for.

And as for Matthew?s being the top paid player in the league, for a period of time, why does this bother you? It?s not his fault mcdavid signed his deal 8 years ago. And mcdavid will get more than Matthews. Even Drysaitl might.

I?m not trying to be a dick, but I?m just not on the same page with you at all.

 

[dappleganger]

[*] UFA targets: multiple Defensemen and Leafs' cap room will make them a 'force' in this market; aiming for 2 big names
[*] Bertuzzi/Domi: if they don't sign, it'll be down to term

These sources are either bad at math or their ?big fish? are not the same as my big fish.  We don?t have enough cap space for Domi+Bertuzzi+2 good D+even a bad goalie who can play 50 games (assuming we keep Marner).

One of J?rnkrok or K?mpf would have to go, and if, a big IF, Domi signs for $4m x 4 and Bert accepts $5m x 5 they theoretically could do it. It would mean not bringing back any of their RFAs, and going really thin at goalie and depth D.

Something like this:

 

[herman]

[*] UFA targets: multiple Defensemen and Leafs' cap room will make them a 'force' in this market; aiming for 2 big names
[*] Bertuzzi/Domi: if they don't sign, it'll be down to term

These sources are either bad at math or their ?big fish? are not the same as my big fish.  We don?t have enough cap space for Domi+Bertuzzi+2 good D+even a bad goalie who can play 50 games (assuming we keep Marner).

I don't think these observations are anything remotely like a fully considered and mapped out plan; just feelers for what each side is looking for and if there is enough alignment and opportunity. UFA D will be the priority, as well as a goalie. After that, it's make do with whatever is left/available.

 

[dappleganger]

I think Bert is gone. I don't see how they could fit in his salary given the teams other needs.

I expect Dewar and Robertson to be back so I think there's also a lack of forward spots for Bertuzzi as well.

 

[herman]

I think Bert is gone. I don't see how they could fit in his salary given the teams other needs.

I expect Dewar and Robertson to be back so I think there's also a lack of forward spots for Bertuzzi as well.

I agree. For the first time in awhile, LW is not a position of need. Let the kids gain some traction.

If we were to spend actual money on a forward, I'd like it to be a RH Centre with speed and PK experience.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If we were to spend actual money on a forward, I'd like it to be a RH Centre with speed and PK experience.

Jumping on the Pageau train with me?

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/nhl_watcher/status/1801024559849537584
- directly quoting the text he gets from Darren Ferris

Previously, after the playoffs
Toronto Sun May 06, 2024 link

?That would be a goal,? Marner said when he was asked if he wants to stay in Toronto longterm. ?I?ve expressed my love for this place, this city. I grew up here. We?ll start thinking about that now and trying to figure something out.?

Hockey News June 4, 2024 Report: Preference From Mitch Marner's Camp to Start Season with Maple Leafs

"As I wrote a few weeks ago, the Marner camp, led by agent Darren Ferris isn?t putting together a list of teams for a potential trade. The focus for Marner, who has a full no-move clause, is on honoring the remaining year of his contract and seeing where things go from there," LeBrun wrote.

"That also means I don?t think there?s an appetite to talk extension come July 1. The preference from the Marner camp is to start the season and see how things go. Perhaps there are talks on an extension eventually, but I don?t believe there?s a strong desire to get into them this summer."

Now, we have this from Dreger quoting Marner's agent:

"Marner has another year remaining on his contract and he intends to play it out ..."

I wonder how many times Marner has to say it before the media catches on ... (they need their subscriptions, ratings & clicks ..)

The clock is ticking. We're getting closer to the big dominos game on July 1 where after the first dominos fall, a bunch of plan B's, C's & D's get immediately launched, etc as they scramble.
A GM's time is increasingly precious now. He has to have all his ducks lined up.
Are they going to spend a bunch of their critical time on a complex, big $ trade where the player with a NMC hasn't even blessed any destination or provided a willingness to do so and his agent wants him to test the UFA market?
I really doubt it.

Whether Marner accepts being traded or not any time soon is up to Marner and he repeatedly has said he's not interested any time soon. If they don't want him around long term, his agent can take care of that July 1, 2025. It would save him some work - one less offer to review. The Leafs can try to find a 28 yr old, 95 pt replacement on the UFA market ... which I don't recall seeing very often

 

[herman]

If we were to spend actual money on a forward, I'd like it to be a RH Centre with speed and PK experience.

Jumping on the Pageau train with me?

Is there a younger version? I was really hoping Jarnkrok had some actual chops there, but sadly no.

 

[bustaheims]

Honestly, I don't know why Matthews got the top cap hit on just a 4-year deal. If you're going to pay someone more than anyone else a reasonable term length would be assumed.

Agents to Leafs: "I want more than all my peers". Leafs GM's: "okay".

And, if they say no, and he's not willing to budge, he'd be wearing a different uniform next season. Pretty easy to see why the Leafs were willing to work with Matthews to find a deal that worked instead of being adversarial. It's pretty simple logic here - better to have Matthews, the league's best goalscorer, at a rate and term that isn't ideal than to see him walk because you wanted more favourable terms.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Jumping on the Pageau train with me?

Is there a younger version? I was really hoping Jarnkrok had some actual chops there, but sadly no.

No, although I will say I expected Pageau to be a little older than he actually is (turns 32 this November). That's up there, but not exactly ancient. edit: to hammer this point in he's actually younger than Jarnkrok.

If you want an even crazier idea, Montreal might be looking to unload Mitch's old centre from his London Knights days...

 

[princedpw]

[*] UFA targets: multiple Defensemen and Leafs' cap room will make them a 'force' in this market; aiming for 2 big names
[*] Bertuzzi/Domi: if they don't sign, it'll be down to term

These sources are either bad at math or their ?big fish? are not the same as my big fish.  We don?t have enough cap space for Domi+Bertuzzi+2 good D+even a bad goalie who can play 50 games (assuming we keep Marner).

One of J?rnkrok or K?mpf would have to go, and if, a big IF, Domi signs for $4m x 4 and Bert accepts $5m x 5 they theoretically could do it. It would mean not bringing back any of their RFAs, and going really thin at goalie and depth D.

Something like this:

That goalie situation just doesn?t seem reasonable to me ?. I like Martin Jones as a 3rd stringer a lot!  But not as a guy we need to play 50 games when Woll gets injured.  Some of Bertuzzi?s 5 million needs to be allocated to a goaltender.

 

[herman]

Jumping on the Pageau train with me?

Is there a younger version? I was really hoping Jarnkrok had some actual chops there, but sadly no.

No, although I will say I expected Pageau to be a little older than he actually is (turns 32 this November). That's up there, but not exactly ancient. edit: to hammer this point in he's actually younger than Jarnkrok.

If you want an even crazier idea, Montreal might be looking to unload Mitch's old centre from his London Knights days...

I just flipped through the list of RH centres expiring now to like 3 years out and the market is poop.
I was hoping for younger than Jarnkrok today, because a UFA signing will likely require some term commitment.

Annoyingly, Boston has the market semi-cornered on this player profile.

I'm kind of on the Elias Lindholm train if he magically comes in <7 (after turning down all other higher extensions so far), but I think Boston will end up getting him.

I also think we see a longer stretch of Nylander at centre, with maybe Berube's hair turning gray faster than expected.

 

[Bender]

https://twitter.com/nhl_watcher/status/1801024559849537584
- directly quoting the text he gets from Darren Ferris

Previously, after the playoffs
Toronto Sun May 06, 2024 link

?That would be a goal,? Marner said when he was asked if he wants to stay in Toronto longterm. ?I?ve expressed my love for this place, this city. I grew up here. We?ll start thinking about that now and trying to figure something out.?

Hockey News June 4, 2024 Report: Preference From Mitch Marner's Camp to Start Season with Maple Leafs

"As I wrote a few weeks ago, the Marner camp, led by agent Darren Ferris isn?t putting together a list of teams for a potential trade. The focus for Marner, who has a full no-move clause, is on honoring the remaining year of his contract and seeing where things go from there," LeBrun wrote.

"That also means I don?t think there?s an appetite to talk extension come July 1. The preference from the Marner camp is to start the season and see how things go. Perhaps there are talks on an extension eventually, but I don?t believe there?s a strong desire to get into them this summer."

Now, we have this from Dreger quoting Marner's agent:

"Marner has another year remaining on his contract and he intends to play it out ..."

I wonder how many times Marner has to say it before the media catches on ... (they need their subscriptions, ratings & clicks ..)

The clock is ticking. We're getting closer to the big dominos game on July 1 where after the first dominos fall, a bunch of plan B's, C's & D's get immediately launched, etc as they scramble.
A GM's time is increasingly precious now. He has to have all his ducks lined up.
Are they going to spend a bunch of their critical time on a complex, big $ trade where the player with a NMC hasn't even blessed any destination or provided a willingness to do so and his agent wants him to test the UFA market?
I really doubt it.

Whether Marner accepts being traded or not any time soon is up to Marner and he repeatedly has said he's not interested any time soon. If they don't want him around long term, his agent can take care of that July 1, 2025. It would save him some work - one less offer to review. The Leafs can try to find a 28 yr old, 95 pt replacement on the UFA market ... which I don't recall seeing very often

I think we all understand your position by now.

 

[herman]

Again, the content of what's being said through the media is all just posturing for bargaining position on both sides. However, how it's being said points towards a divorce happening one way or another.

 

[herman]

MLHS has some decent recaps of Matthews & Nylander's seasons.  No revelations: Both are gamebreakers, Matthews needs to bring it in the playoffs, that's all he has left to prove, and Nylander still cheats for offense.

https://x.com/APetrielli/status/1801269304320553170