2025 Offseason Thread: Spring Cleaning

[cabber24]

Look, I don't want to be a Leafs apologist. I thought they lost because of no other reason the group's mentality. Specifically, the team/players were good enough but they choked. That being said, below is something I haven't heard a lot of people comment on:

These were the on-ice cap values (not the cap hit to each team) for each team for the deciding Game 7 in the 2025 playoffs 2nd round:

Florida: $96,275,000

Toronto: $86,454,872
Clearly Toronto is at a disadvantage there. $10m buys a good amount of depth. Sure you can put that on management or the "coincidence" of the situation but it belies the situation that if Toronto had of won the series, it would have been in some terms an upset. In a hard cap league that's quite an anomaly.

Maybe the answer for a team to receive LTIR cap relief the player has to be out for the entire year, not magically come back for the playoffs, or maybe have the LTIR space continue in the playoffs in the same form as it functions during the regular season?

In the NFL, if a player is injured and the team receives insurance proceeds, the amount is credited to their salary cap in the following league year. They get extra money to spend the following season based on insurance payouts, which in a revenue spit CBA situation, kinda makes a lot of sense.

Matthews was the ultimate LTIR candidate this year. He may have had a better playoff if he had a break and we could of added salary at the deadline.

 

[Joe S.]

Matthews was the ultimate LTIR candidate this year. He may have had a better playoff if he had a break and we could have added salary at the deadline.

You are absolutely correct.

But I’m convinced had the leafs done this, somehow it would result in a fine or a change in rules.

I bet you’re going to see a change in contract rules if the leafs give out a Gourde type contract this year or a penalty against the leafs or some kind of consequence.

 

[Joe S.]

Look, I don't want to be a Leafs apologist. I thought they lost because of no other reason the group's mentality. Specifically, the team/players were good enough but they choked. That being said, below is something I haven't heard a lot of people comment on:

These were the on-ice cap values (not the cap hit to each team) for each team for the deciding Game 7 in the 2025 playoffs 2nd round:

Florida: $96,275,000

Toronto: $86,454,872
Clearly Toronto is at a disadvantage there. $10m buys a good amount of depth. Sure you can put that on management or the "coincidence" of the situation but it belies the situation that if Toronto had of won the series, it would have been in some terms an upset. In a hard cap league that's quite an anomaly.

Maybe the answer for a team to receive LTIR cap relief the player has to be out for the entire year, not magically come back for the playoffs, or maybe have the LTIR space continue in the playoffs in the same form as it functions during the regular season?

In the NFL, if a player is injured and the team receives insurance proceeds, the amount is credited to their salary cap in the following league year. They get extra money to spend the following season based on insurance payouts, which in a revenue spit CBA situation, kinda makes a lot of sense.

This is a great post.

But is it an anomaly though? Haven’t all the cup winners recently been over the cap? TB wore freaking T-shirts to commemorate that accomplishment.

 

[bustaheims]

You are absolutely correct.

But I’m convinced had the leafs done this, somehow it would result in a fine or a change in rules.

I bet you’re going to see a change in contract rules if the leafs give out a Gourde type contract this year or a penalty against the leafs or some kind of consequence.

They are, apparently, looking to make some changes to the LTIR playoff loophole in the next CBA. What that will look like - if it comes to fruition - is obviously still TBD, but, it didn't take the Leafs doing it to get the league to look at it. It became enough of a widespread issue for that to happen. Suspect the same thing will happen with the Gourde-type contracts (as well as deferred payments) if there starts to be more than a handful of them around the league.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This is a great post.

But is it an anomaly though? Haven’t all the cup winners recently been over the cap? TB wore freaking T-shirts to commemorate that accomplishment.

Technically the Leafs "abused" the rule too this season with Pacioretty coming off LTIR in the playoffs when he couldn't have during the regular season. Think it's happened with us once or twice more as well over the years, although obviously all with significantly less impactful players than a Tkachuk or Kucherov or Stone.

I bet you’re going to see a change in contract rules if the leafs give out a Gourde type contract this year or a penalty against the leafs or some kind of consequence.

Leafs already did this with Tanev really. There's speculation they might with Tavares as well.

 

[cabber24]

Technically the Leafs "abused" the rule too this season with Pacioretty coming off LTIR in the playoffs when he couldn't have during the regular season. Think it's happened with us once or twice more as well over the years, although obviously all with significantly less impactful players than a Tkachuk or Kucherov or Stone.


Leafs already did this with Tanev really. There's speculation they might with Tavares as well.

Yes, I was going to say Tanev and hopefully JT too.

 

[dappleganger]

Technically the Leafs "abused" the rule too this season with Pacioretty coming off LTIR in the playoffs when he couldn't have during the regular season. Think it's happened with us once or twice more as well over the years, although obviously all with significantly less impactful players than a Tkachuk or Kucherov or Stone.

The only exception I'd say to this is the Leafs could have made a roster mover to make Pacioretty fit. (they could have waived Kampf to make room) There were no roster moves Tampa or Florida could have made to make those rosters compliant.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I also don't care for Nylander with Matthews; they make each other play lazy.

88 doesn't need 34 to make him play lazy....lol.

 

[Joe S.]

Technically the Leafs "abused" the rule too this season with Pacioretty coming off LTIR in the playoffs when he couldn't have during the regular season. Think it's happened with us once or twice more as well over the years, although obviously all with significantly less impactful players than a Tkachuk or Kucherov or Stone.


Leafs already did this with Tanev really. There's speculation they might with Tavares as well.

Yeah that’s true. I know I’m coming across like a conspiracy theory nut, but I guess I’m just frustrated that the leafs don’t really play dirty when they can.

 

[Joe S.]

Yes, I was going to say Tanev and hopefully JT too.

I forgot about Tanev’s contract when I wrote that…. But yeah, that’s true.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

But I think his PPG numbers are somewhat masking his decline though. He had career highs in shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage this season. And significant career high too in personal shooting percentage at 19%. That beats his previous career high of 17.28% during the 48-game partial-lockout season with the Islanders and 16.43% during his first season with the Leafs when he scored 48 goals. In his previous 5 seasons with the Leafs his shooting percentage was just 11.9%. This is admittedly way too simplistic but if he had shot 11.9% this season he comes out with just 23 goals.

On the flip side he had career lows (or 2nd worst lows going back to the Islanders) in shot rates, CF%, and xGF%. Some of this can maybe be explained by "Berube hockey" but other players numbers didn't suffer quite as much and as I said about their playoff performance I don't think "Berube hockey" is a good enough excuse for getting outplayed at 5-on-5 consistently.

I also think it's important to note that Tavares has had a VERY plum gig as the 2C of this team. At 5-on-5 he's almost always had one of Nylander or Marner as his right winger and on the powerplay he's almost always played with both of those two plus Matthews. Kadri was brought up as a comparable and he had 67 points in 82 games while playing with Huberdeau and whatever a Martin Pospisil is at 5-on-5 and a collection of players that couldn't hold a candle to the Leafs PP1 skills on the powerplay.

I don't want to completely wave away the success that Tavares had this season. 38 goals and 74 points is remarkable especially at this stage of his career. I doubt anyone would have guessed he'd be hitting those marks in the last year of his deal when it was originally signed. But we also have to be realistic about what he can do going forward and more importantly also pay him on that basis and not on what he did in the past. Next season his shooting percentage will drop probably significantly, his on-ice shooting percentage will probably drop, and instead of always having a Nylander or Marner on his right side at 5-on-5 he might not have the opportunity to play with either of them very much.

I agree with what's in this post. The only thing I'd point out is these are reasons to think long and hard about whether Tavares is a fit for the Leafs as a 2C. He's not at the point of shoving him into a 3C role with some "smushers on his wing" while inserting guys who don't have the offensive credentials ahead of him.

The Tavares decision and negotiation is, from a certain point of view, more interesting and impactful than Marner. The Marner situation is black and white, you believe or you don't, you pay the money or he walks. Tavares and the Leafs have a much more nuanced decision to make. Everything above is true, there is reason to be concerned Tavares numbers are not sustainable, and concerns like speed aren't going to get any better as he ages. On the other hand, he has continued to produce.

So what's he willing to sign for? What's he going to expect as a role? The last contract was a childhood dream for Tavares. The next one will tell us a lot about where the Leafs are headed.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I agree with what's in this post. The only thing I'd point out is these are reasons to think long and hard about whether Tavares is a fit for the Leafs as a 2C. He's not at the point of shoving him into a 3C role with some "smushers on his wing" while inserting guys who don't have the offensive credentials ahead of him.

The Tavares decision and negotiation is, from a certain point of view, more interesting and impactful than Marner. The Marner situation is black and white, you believe or you don't, you pay the money or he walks. Tavares and the Leafs have a much more nuanced decision to make. Everything above is true, there is reason to be concerned Tavares numbers are not sustainable, and concerns like speed aren't going to get any better as he ages. On the other hand, he has continued to produce.

So what's he willing to sign for? What's he going to expect as a role? The last contract was a childhood dream for Tavares. The next one will tell us a lot about where the Leafs are headed.

The thing with Tavares, is that we've been waiting for this massive drop off and it hasn't occurred. This year certainly has a higher shooting percentage, but the previous year he actually dipped below his average and still put up 29 goals.

I'm not saying that the leafs hand him ridiculous $$, but I think he's worth more than some people are guessing he'll get(or should get).

It will definitely be interesting. I hope that if the Leafs lowball him and he decides to walk that the fans don't hold it against him.

 

[Kaberle15]

Matthews was the ultimate LTIR candidate this year. He may have had a better playoff if he had a break and we could of added salary at the deadline.

And he stayed 9 games out, 1 more game and he could be added to LTIR

 

[dappleganger]

I agree with what's in this post. The only thing I'd point out is these are reasons to think long and hard about whether Tavares is a fit for the Leafs as a 2C. He's not at the point of shoving him into a 3C role with some "smushers on his wing" while inserting guys who don't have the offensive credentials ahead of him.

The Tavares decision and negotiation is, from a certain point of view, more interesting and impactful than Marner. The Marner situation is black and white, you believe or you don't, you pay the money or he walks. Tavares and the Leafs have a much more nuanced decision to make. Everything above is true, there is reason to be concerned Tavares numbers are not sustainable, and concerns like speed aren't going to get any better as he ages. On the other hand, he has continued to produce.

So what's he willing to sign for? What's he going to expect as a role? The last contract was a childhood dream for Tavares. The next one will tell us a lot about where the Leafs are headed.

I want Tavares back, there's no question about that. The only issue is cap hit. I'd even hold out and finish the other UFA business and give Tavares whatever is left on a 1-year deal if he wants to go that route.

With Tavares returning, I think the Leafs need to target one of Duchene, Granlund, or Bennett to round out the centers. (I'd also be interested in Toews but for 4th line duty).

I would shift Tavares down to line 3 and have him with something like Laughton and McMann as his wingers. Have them grind. John is good at that.

 

[bustaheims]

And he stayed 9 games out, 1 more game and he could be added to LTIR

Unless he stayed out until the playoffs, that wouldn't have mattered.

 

[Bender]

I did provide a counterpoint. You don’t agree with it and that’s fine. None of us had a crystal ball to know how it would ultimately play out. I’m comfortable in the knowledge they bet on 3 of the most talented players they’ve ever had. I can’t say moving one of them would have lead to better results, I have no idea.

Your counterpoint is basically we don't know what the alternative would look like, which isn't much of a position. So much of team discussions does involve hypotheticals and that's just the way it is, and GMs are paid to deal with the probable outcomes of hypotheticals. At the end of the day they won 2 playoff rounds in 9 attempts and will now let Marner walk for nothing. Many people saw this coming and the non-comittal stance of "well we wouldn't know" isn't strong enough for me when many said we'd likely be better off overall (ignoring regular season success) with making a move on either Nylander or Marner when we had the chance. We bet on the core that didn't work repeatedly, talent notwithstanding, and had quite a few data points regarding it, and now we're guaranteed to be worse off than if we traded Marner or Nylander. I don't know how anyone could be satisfied with that.

 

[Bender]

Look, I don't want to be a Leafs apologist. I thought they lost because of no other reason the group's mentality. Specifically, the team/players were good enough but they choked. That being said, below is something I haven't heard a lot of people comment on:

These were the on-ice cap values (not the cap hit to each team) for each team for the deciding Game 7 in the 2025 playoffs 2nd round:

Florida: $96,275,000

Toronto: $86,454,872

Clearly Toronto is at a disadvantage there. $10m buys a good amount of depth. Sure you can put that on management or the "coincidence" of the situation but it belies the situation that if Toronto had of won the series, it would have been in some terms an upset. In a hard cap league that's quite an anomaly.

Maybe the answer for a team to receive LTIR cap relief the player has to be out for the entire year, not magically come back for the playoffs, or maybe have the LTIR space continue in the playoffs in the same form as it functions during the regular season?

In the NFL, if a player is injured and the team receives insurance proceeds, the amount is credited to their salary cap in the following league year. They get extra money to spend the following season based on insurance payouts, which in a revenue spit CBA situation, kinda makes a lot of sense.

They had their chance to LTIR Matthews into the post-season and they didn't. Lots of people here were saying we should pull a Vegas a la Mark Stone or a Lightning a la Kucherov. The Leafs had their chance and they chose not to exercise it.

 

[Chris]

They had their chance to LTIR Matthews into the post-season and they didn't. Lots of people here were saying we should pull a Vegas a la Mark Stone or a Lightning a la Kucherov. The Leafs had their chance and they chose not to exercise it.

Leafs management (I'm mainly talking about Dubas and Shanahan) overall has been about as timid as the core players in elimination games. Afraid of the big moment, afraid to take a risk. Well, now they have to deal with the consequences. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't, which kind of fits with the management approach through this whole era.

Sounds like Shanahan was the main driving force in all of this...Dubas might have tried to move one of the core if he hadn't gotten fired. Wonder where that would have led...

 

[ZBBM]

And he stayed 9 games out, 1 more game and he could be added to LTIR

This is on Treliving and Shanahan. They should have insisted on LTIR no matter what Auston wanted.

 

[dappleganger]

Leafs management (I'm mainly talking about Dubas and Shanahan) overall has been about as timid as the core players in elimination games. Afraid of the big moment, afraid to take a risk. Well, now they have to deal with the consequences. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't, which kind of fits with the management approach through this whole era.

Sounds like Shanahan was the main driving force in all of this...Dubas might have tried to move one of the core if he hadn't gotten fired. Wonder where that would have led...

I completely agree. This deadline was a perfect example. The Leafs should have put Järnkrok and Kämpf on waivers the day before the deadline so they would have cleared $2.25m against the cap $1.125m each) by noon on deadline day. Chances are they would have cleared, but if they were claimed that would have been ok too as it would have cleared either a $2.1m or $2.4m cap hit this year and next. If they clear, you bring them back for the cup run.

Obviously it wouldn't have been the kindest thing to do with either of those players but the Leafs need to be more ruthless in trying to win the cup and those moves would have made sense.