All quiet on the Leaf front. But why?

[Joe S.]

I'm not going to lie -- even though the term and money may be crazy, I'm sad knowing that teams like the friggin' Wild have no problem going all out to make their team better with stars, while the Leafs, the league's most profitable team, adhere to some self-imposed restrictions and come up with guys like Connolly and McClement. 

They're both from the that neck of the woods... I'm guessing that was a gigantic factor in their decision to go to the wild.

So Kessel to the Wild in 2014?  :-\

Could happen...

 

[Champ Kind]

I'm still trying to figure out if Burke is planning on making the dance next year.

I still think that the team as is will be what we see in camp, more or less.

Good grief, Nik, I hope not.  Burke has said almost as much, though he's presented the possibility that this might be the squad to open.  I think, though, he's pretty agreed with the obvious: the LEafs need goaltending.

Put another way, if I was Reimer / Scrivens, I wouldn't exactly feel warm and fuzzy with Burke's "we're looking to improve but are prepared to go into the season with what we have (in net)" line.

 

[Kin]

Good grief, Nik, I hope not.  Burke has said almost as much, though he's presented the possibility that this might be the squad to open.  I think, though, he's pretty agreed with the obvious: the LEafs need goaltending.

Yeah, well, Burke says a lot of things.

Joking aside, I think the question of goaltending can only really be answered if you know what the Leafs aims are for the season. Let's assume you're right and they do want to add goaltending and, for the sake of argument, assume Luongo isn't an option. What's left? Who's available out there for a price Burke wants to pay?

I sort of look at Burke saying "we want to improve" these days the way I look at me saying "I want a Bentley". Both might be true. Both may even reflect future plans. But the price remains the sticking point.

 

[Champ Kind]

Good grief, Nik, I hope not.  Burke has said almost as much, though he's presented the possibility that this might be the squad to open.  I think, though, he's pretty agreed with the obvious: the LEafs need goaltending.

Yeah, well, Burke says a lot of things.

Joking aside, I think the question of goaltending can only really be answered if you know what the Leafs aims are for the season. Let's assume you're right and they do want to add goaltending and, for the sake of argument, assume Luongo isn't an option. What's left? Who's available out there for a price Burke wants to pay?

I sort of look at Burke saying "we want to improve" these days the way I look at me saying "I want a Bentley". Both might be true. Both may even reflect future plans. But the price remains the sticking point.

I'm of the opinion that us laypersons don't have a real sense - or, maybe it would be truer to say accurate sense - of what goes on in terms of player management.  I'd say many of the posters on here are logical, better connected, have more common sense, etc., but are no more in tune with what might be happening than anyone else.  The media is used for posturing, positioning,  and stroking - much like a Bentley (I'm trying here, Nik).

While you're likely right, it just seems to me that we're speculating on a market we know little about.  This is why I only buy the mutual funds my financial advisor tells me to.  No more Nortels for Champ.

 

[Kin]

While you're likely right, it just seems to me that we're speculating on a market we know little about.

I'm not speculating at all about the market(and being a hockey fan, knowing what has taken place will tell you a lot about that market), I'm just speaking to my wariness about public statements from Burke about wanting to improve. I have no doubts that he wants to, just like I have no doubts that he wanted to sign the Sedins or trade up for Tavares. I just don't connect that to what I think will happen.

 

[Kin]

FWIW...

?I would say that?s not a real possibility at all,? Burke told Sportsnet 590 The Fan radio when asked if the current roster will be the one that reports for camp. ?That?s remote. We need to do some more work.

?We believe we can upgrade at those positions, yes.?

Yeah, I heard the interview.

 

[Zee]

While you're likely right, it just seems to me that we're speculating on a market we know little about.

I'm not speculating at all about the market(and being a hockey fan, knowing what has taken place will tell you a lot about that market), I'm just speaking to my wariness about public statements from Burke about wanting to improve. I have no doubts that he wants to, just like I have no doubts that he wanted to sign the Sedins or trade up for Tavares. I just don't connect that to what I think will happen.

That's the thing that bothers me too.  We've all heard Burke's "wishes" in the past, trading up in the Tavares draft is the one that sticks out, but can he actually deliver anything on that wish?  Sure he said Leafs need to upgrade in center and net but does he have the assets to make good trades?  I'm skeptical until I see something happen.

 

[bustaheims]

What role does the word 'solely' play in what you're saying here?  I'm curious as to what you think Burke will do, beyond the obvious move for a goaltender.

It means Burke won't be moving high value, long-term assets for older players, short-term fixes or gambles/reclamation projects. If he can get pieces that will help the team make the playoffs now and be a significant part of the team throughout the period where he hopes the team will legitimately be able to compete for a Cup, he'll do it, but, not for guys like, for instance, Luongo or Stastny.

 

[slapshot]

My goodness, people ranting about 3.5 years like it's been forever. There are what 6-7 general managers in the entire league that have actually won a cup, Burke being one of them.
Guys like Reiger and McPhee have been with their teams for what 15 years or so. Yes, they make the playoffs but they haven't won anything.
Some of the GMs that won like Bowman and Shero, walked into teams that were already stacked. Even Ken Holland did his first couple of cups, taking over from Bowman.
I see Leafs as really starting to stock the cupboards. Gardiner and Frattin gave a lot of room for optimism last year. If they continue to progress and there is no reason to think they won't, and we get a couple more advancing (say Kadri, Colborne or D'Amigo) things can turn around pretty quick. Even JVR, if he plays up to his potential, could make a big difference. It would be interesting to see what he could do between Kessel and Lupul, if they decide to try him there.
If the Leafs can get solid, consistent goaltending, I think they are in the playoffs for sure and the continued building will carry on with guys like Biggs, Ross, Rielly and Percy coming down the pike soon.
Good young core coming I think personally. Even the vets like Phaneuf and Kessel will not be "old" when the younger guys gain experience.

So Shero, Bowman and Holland are all just lucky? Regier and McPhee are not very good because they've remained competitive but never won the Cup?

Burke has done very little in his time here in terms of tangible results. Yes he's done some decent things with the prospects, as should be expected with 3 years of missing the playoffs (and 4 years of picks before that), but he's also traded away a large amount of his possible picks.

This team will likely need to be competitive (make the playoffs) for a good few years before a Cup magically appears.

The fact that Burke still needs to address the #1C, #1D and #1G indicate that this team will a) suck for awhile yet o  b) move a bunch of the good prospects to obtain those players.

He's damned if he doesn't (team continues to languish and miss the playoffs) and damned if he does (roster gets stronger but the prospects he's been busy developing disappear).

Ultimately I think most people will get off his back if the team is competitive again, even if he ends up trading Kadri/Colborne/Frattin/D'Amigo/Percy/Blacker/Ross/Biggs etc.

Never said that Bowman and Holland were "just lucky." That's your interruption of it. What I said was that they were fortunate to have inherited teams that were already pretty well stacked. Not saying they weren't competent enough to help their teams win the cup. But having something to work with is a big help.

Consider what Burke inherited:

Jason Blake
Alexei Ponikarovsky
Matt Stajan
Mikhail Grabovski
Nik Antropov?
Niklas Hagman
Dominic Moore
Pavel Kubina
Tomas Kaberle
Nikolai Kulemin
Lee Stempniak
John Mitchell
Ian White
Jeff Finger
Jamal Mayers
Luke Schenn
Anton Stralman
Boyd Devereaux
Mike Van Ryn
Jeremy Williams
Jonas Frogren
Jeff Hamilton
Jiri Tlusty
Brad May
Ryan Hollweg
Phil Oreskovic
Jaime Sifers
Andre Deveaux
Jay Harrison
Tim Stapleton
Ben Ondrus
Kris Newbury
Vesa Toskela
Justin Pogge

The only two left are Grabo and Kulemin, probably the two best on the list (depending on how Schenn develops). Is there anyone that list, you would trade Frattin for straight up? Is there any three on that list you'd trade Gardiner for? Is there a forward on that list you'd trade Kadri or Colborne for today if you had the chance? Not me.
If you had an expansion draft today, you could probably fair just as well as that lot.
People complain that his UFAs didn't work out, but if you checked back, I'd bet that aside from Connolly (because of his injury history), practically everyone was praising the signings of Komo, Beauchemin, etc at the time. And, look at what the trade of Beauchemin brought back.
I'm not for dealing away all the young talent just to get "competitive". I think you stockpile it, just as Burke is doing, and then you selectively play your pieces, some you keep and some you use to improve your club in other areas. But as this young core develops I think the overall stock will rise collectively, with a few discards along the way (like Schenn for JVR).
Also, not saying Reiger and McPhee are not very good. Again, your interpretation. My point is the opposite, they've stuck around because they are good, but in spite of being good managers they haven't won yet...which just shows how tough it is.
I think Burke is a good manager as well, and if we can all remain patient, we will see things start to take off. If they can fix their goaltending and make the playoffs, they could very well land a key UFA next year. Look at how the Wild's fortunes changed in just one day today.

 

[Kin]

Look at how the Wild's fortunes changed in just one day today.

You mean by signing two examples of the kind of deal that Burke has said he'll never offer a player?

 

[slapshot]

Look at how the Wild's fortunes changed in just one day today.

You mean by signing two examples of the kind of deal that Burke has said he'll never offer a player?

Won't have to, new CBA will take care of that. Doesn't always take two big signings. Even one can make a difference. Not saying the Leafs will hit the jackpot on the UFAs but they might also.

 

[Kin]

Won't have to, new CBA will take care of that.

We have no idea what the new CBA will or won't do. For all you know there could be drastic changes to free agency eligibility.

 

[Strangelove]

What role does the word 'solely' play in what you're saying here?  I'm curious as to what you think Burke will do, beyond the obvious move for a goaltender.

It means Burke won't be moving high value, long-term assets for older players, short-term fixes or gambles/reclamation projects. If he can get pieces that will help the team make the playoffs now and be a significant part of the team throughout the period where he hopes the team will legitimately be able to compete for a Cup, he'll do it, but, not for guys like, for instance, Luongo or Stastny.

Isn't that precisely what he did with Schenn though?  I'm very happy with the return but the move was a significant gamble considering the injury risk involved.

With respect to your main point, I don't really see who, beyond Gardiner and their new D, would constitute a high-value long term asset.  Given the current state of the team along with the fairly evident fact that neither Burke nor ownership can stomach a full rebuild right now, I think everyone ought to be in play.  Certainly, standing pat or making only minor moves cannot be an option.  We know what this team brings to the table.

 

[Deebo]

What role does the word 'solely' play in what you're saying here?  I'm curious as to what you think Burke will do, beyond the obvious move for a goaltender.

It means Burke won't be moving high value, long-term assets for older players, short-term fixes or gambles/reclamation projects. If he can get pieces that will help the team make the playoffs now and be a significant part of the team throughout the period where he hopes the team will legitimately be able to compete for a Cup, he'll do it, but, not for guys like, for instance, Luongo or Stastny.

Isn't that precisely what he did with Schenn though?  I'm very happy with the return but the move was a significant gamble considering the injury risk involved.

Schenn is only 6 months younger and signed for 2 less years.

 

[Bullfrog]

He is a tough sell and they can't go into mass salary dumping, but if they took on a cheaper deal on a shorter term maybe it works.  ie: Connolly ++ for Stastny.

I'm not sure I go for that, because I'd rather have the cap space available for the summer of 2013. A deal centred around Komisarek, sure, but, that's highly unlikely. Adding real value assets in the hopes of Stastny rebounding while taking up a significant chunk of cap space has bad news written all over it.

Now what ever would we use cap space in the summer for??

It's a risk, but Stastny could get back to 75 point range. Connolly will not come remotely close to that and is effectively homeless on this team.  For the right price I would do it, also given the number of contracts Burke has coming off the books in a year.

It's a risk I'd be willing to take. Unless someone like Kopitar is available (which I doubt.)

 

[rdowdall]

He is a tough sell and they can't go into mass salary dumping, but if they took on a cheaper deal on a shorter term maybe it works.  ie: Connolly ++ for Stastny.

I'm not sure I go for that, because I'd rather have the cap space available for the summer of 2013. A deal centred around Komisarek, sure, but, that's highly unlikely. Adding real value assets in the hopes of Stastny rebounding while taking up a significant chunk of cap space has bad news written all over it.

Now what ever would we use cap space in the summer for??

It's a risk, but Stastny could get back to 75 point range. Connolly will not come remotely close to that and is effectively homeless on this team.  For the right price I would do it, also given the number of contracts Burke has coming off the books in a year.

It's a risk I'd be willing to take. Unless someone like Kopitar is available (which I doubt.)

There was a tweet that went by with the #Leaf from NHLTradeRumours that stated that Burke was shopping Connolly and some teams were interested.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

My goodness, people ranting about 3.5 years like it's been forever. There are what 6-7 general managers in the entire league that have actually won a cup, Burke being one of them.
Guys like Reiger and McPhee have been with their teams for what 15 years or so. Yes, they make the playoffs but they haven't won anything.
Some of the GMs that won like Bowman and Shero, walked into teams that were already stacked. Even Ken Holland did his first couple of cups, taking over from Bowman.
I see Leafs as really starting to stock the cupboards. Gardiner and Frattin gave a lot of room for optimism last year. If they continue to progress and there is no reason to think they won't, and we get a couple more advancing (say Kadri, Colborne or D'Amigo) things can turn around pretty quick. Even JVR, if he plays up to his potential, could make a big difference. It would be interesting to see what he could do between Kessel and Lupul, if they decide to try him there.
If the Leafs can get solid, consistent goaltending, I think they are in the playoffs for sure and the continued building will carry on with guys like Biggs, Ross, Rielly and Percy coming down the pike soon.
Good young core coming I think personally. Even the vets like Phaneuf and Kessel will not be "old" when the younger guys gain experience.

So Shero, Bowman and Holland are all just lucky? Regier and McPhee are not very good because they've remained competitive but never won the Cup?

Burke has done very little in his time here in terms of tangible results. Yes he's done some decent things with the prospects, as should be expected with 3 years of missing the playoffs (and 4 years of picks before that), but he's also traded away a large amount of his possible picks.

This team will likely need to be competitive (make the playoffs) for a good few years before a Cup magically appears.

The fact that Burke still needs to address the #1C, #1D and #1G indicate that this team will a) suck for awhile yet o  b) move a bunch of the good prospects to obtain those players.

He's damned if he doesn't (team continues to languish and miss the playoffs) and damned if he does (roster gets stronger but the prospects he's been busy developing disappear).

Ultimately I think most people will get off his back if the team is competitive again, even if he ends up trading Kadri/Colborne/Frattin/D'Amigo/Percy/Blacker/Ross/Biggs etc.

Never said that Bowman and Holland were "just lucky." That's your interruption of it. What I said was that they were fortunate to have inherited teams that were already pretty well stacked. Not saying they weren't competent enough to help their teams win the cup. But having something to work with is a big help.

Consider what Burke inherited:

Jason Blake
Alexei Ponikarovsky
Matt Stajan
Mikhail Grabovski
Nik Antropov?
Niklas Hagman
Dominic Moore
Pavel Kubina
Tomas Kaberle
Nikolai Kulemin
Lee Stempniak
John Mitchell
Ian White
Jeff Finger
Jamal Mayers
Luke Schenn
Anton Stralman
Boyd Devereaux
Mike Van Ryn
Jeremy Williams
Jonas Frogren
Jeff Hamilton
Jiri Tlusty
Brad May
Ryan Hollweg
Phil Oreskovic
Jaime Sifers
Andre Deveaux
Jay Harrison
Tim Stapleton
Ben Ondrus
Kris Newbury
Vesa Toskela
Justin Pogge

The only two left are Grabo and Kulemin, probably the two best on the list (depending on how Schenn develops). Is there anyone that list, you would trade Frattin for straight up? Is there any three on that list you'd trade Gardiner for? Is there a forward on that list you'd trade Kadri or Colborne for today if you had the chance? Not me.
If you had an expansion draft today, you could probably fair just as well as that lot.
People complain that his UFAs didn't work out, but if you checked back, I'd bet that aside from Connolly (because of his injury history), practically everyone was praising the signings of Komo, Beauchemin, etc at the time. And, look at what the trade of Beauchemin brought back.
I'm not for dealing away all the young talent just to get "competitive". I think you stockpile it, just as Burke is doing, and then you selectively play your pieces, some you keep and some you use to improve your club in other areas. But as this young core develops I think the overall stock will rise collectively, with a few discards along the way (like Schenn for JVR).
Also, not saying Reiger and McPhee are not very good. Again, your interpretation. My point is the opposite, they've stuck around because they are good, but in spite of being good managers they haven't won yet...which just shows how tough it is.
I think Burke is a good manager as well, and if we can all remain patient, we will see things start to take off. If they can fix their goaltending and make the playoffs, they could very well land a key UFA next year. Look at how the Wild's fortunes changed in just one day today.

That depends on what my teams needs are. Would I trade Frattin for Antro? Sure. Probably for Kubina, Kaberle, White and maybe Poni and Tlusty.

I didn't say Burke inherited a stacked team but neither did Tambellini. I'd say after the last 4 years he's doing pretty well. Some would say he's even close to "stacked" now.

Do I give him credit for the Beauchemin deal? Absolutely. It was a total success. I like the Kadri pick (even if he hasn't had an impact yet. I also like the Kaberle deal and to a lesser extent Frattin and Bozak. I think Burke hurt his own cause with the Monster and Rynnas by overhyping them.

I also think he's massively over paid for most of his UFA's which have largely been busts.

If Burke doesn't make the Kessel deal, doesn't sign Armstrong/Komi/Connolly and trade for Lombardi/Phaneuf, and puts those Cap dollars to good use in the off season, well then this team obviously looks a lot different and probably is pretty close to competitive for a lon time in the near future.

It strikes me that Burke has tried to address things like the 3rd and 4th line and the 3-6th Dman every off season and less so the positions that are of more importance.

 

[Redleaf]

He is a tough sell and they can't go into mass salary dumping, but if they took on a cheaper deal on a shorter term maybe it works.  ie: Connolly ++ for Stastny.

I'm not sure I go for that, because I'd rather have the cap space available for the summer of 2013. A deal centred around Komisarek, sure, but, that's highly unlikely. Adding real value assets in the hopes of Stastny rebounding while taking up a significant chunk of cap space has bad news written all over it.

Now what ever would we use cap space in the summer for??

It's a risk, but Stastny could get back to 75 point range. Connolly will not come remotely close to that and is effectively homeless on this team.  For the right price I would do it, also given the number of contracts Burke has coming off the books in a year.

It's a risk I'd be willing to take. Unless someone like Kopitar is available (which I doubt.)

There was a tweet that went by with the #Leaf from NHLTradeRumours that stated that Burke was shopping Connolly and some teams were interested.

I can believe that. He's only 2 seasons removed from a 65 pt season, and has only 1 yr remaining on his contract. Question is what kind of return can Burke expect? He's 31 and spends lots of time in the infiemary.

 

[rdowdall]

He is a tough sell and they can't go into mass salary dumping, but if they took on a cheaper deal on a shorter term maybe it works.  ie: Connolly ++ for Stastny.

I'm not sure I go for that, because I'd rather have the cap space available for the summer of 2013. A deal centred around Komisarek, sure, but, that's highly unlikely. Adding real value assets in the hopes of Stastny rebounding while taking up a significant chunk of cap space has bad news written all over it.

Now what ever would we use cap space in the summer for??

It's a risk, but Stastny could get back to 75 point range. Connolly will not come remotely close to that and is effectively homeless on this team.  For the right price I would do it, also given the number of contracts Burke has coming off the books in a year.

It's a risk I'd be willing to take. Unless someone like Kopitar is available (which I doubt.)

There was a tweet that went by with the #Leaf from NHLTradeRumours that stated that Burke was shopping Connolly and some teams were interested.

I can believe that. He's only 2 seasons removed from a 65 pt season, and has only 1 yr remaining on his contract. Question is what kind of return can Burke expect?

Not sure.  If a team has a need to get to the cap floor, and they also need a 1b, 2a type centreman, maybe they bite and giveup a middling draft pick. 

 

[Kin]

Not sure.  If a team has a need to get to the cap floor, and they also need a 1b, 2a type centreman, maybe they bite and giveup a middling draft pick.

Honestly, I'd pass. I mean, unless there are immediate and pressing needs for the cap space I think the smart thing to do is keep Connolly around.

Best case scenario: Connolly plays really well, helps the team into the playoffs
Medium case scenario: Connolly plays well, Leafs suck, trade him at the deadline
Worst Case Scenario: Connolly doesn't play well/is injured, cap hit comes off the books

So, I mean, I'd much rather gamble on the first two. I think you could even argue that the medium case scenario would be for the best given the way teams overpay on deadline day.