Armchair GM 2016-2017

[Kin]

Interesting stuff. I guess what I wonder is whether the deficiencies in Rielly's game on the right are so great that you wouldn't want to add a LD of Lindholm's calibre. If he did well with Gardiner (magic) on the left, then things might work out with Lindholm. Maybe Trouba would be ideal, but I'm proceeding under the assumption that he's very unlikely to be acquired -- you can't just offer sheet him and there are probably other teams that have the pieces WPG wants for him (haven't Carolina and Anaheim been drafting good defensemen?).

In some of the stuff I saw re: what Winnipeg wanted it didn't sound like high quality defensive prospects would do it. They wanted, essentially, a left handed Trouba. I don't know that Carolina has that sort of thing and short of a Lindholm-Trouba swap Anaheim needs to slash cap space just to sign Lindholm.

Realistically a Trouba trade is almost certainly going to depend on Winnipeg coming off of what they want regardless of who it's with. Whether that's in the direction of getting fewer years of control(like for someone like Gardiner) or someone less established has yet to be seen but it seems incredibly unlikely anyone will offer what they're asking.

 

[Frank E]

Is Trouba better than Gardiner?

 

[Kin]

Is Trouba better than Gardiner?

In the immediate sense probably not. He's got some things going that make him roughly as valuable though(age, righthandedness).

 

[Frank E]

Another question,  how long are we giving Rielly to establish himself as the man on this team before looking for an upgrade? 

I ask because I'm not sure that he's their Letang/Burns/Doughty/Keith.

 

[Frank E]

Is Trouba better than Gardiner?

In the immediate sense probably not. He's got some things going that make him roughly as valuable though(age, righthandedness).

That's what I thought.  Like my other post, I'm wondering if we should be setting our sights higher.

 

[mr grieves]

Another question,  how long are we giving Rielly to establish himself as the man on this team before looking for an upgrade? 

I ask because I'm not sure that he's their Letang/Burns/Doughty/Keith.

Babcock -- who (IIRC) was reluctant to draft Marner because he values having high-end defensemen above forwards -- seems to be pretty high on Rielly and talks like he's developing into such a player. I don't think that necessarily makes it so.

I don't know how this team gets its hands on someone much better without bottoming out again -- unlikely to happen and, if it does, uncertain to yield a franchise defenseman -- or trading one of Marner, Matthews, or Nylander (and that assumes none have rough patches that diminish their value).

 

[Kin]

Another question,  how long are we giving Rielly to establish himself as the man on this team before looking for an upgrade? 

I ask because I'm not sure that he's their Letang/Burns/Doughty/Keith.

That's sort of the million dollar question for the Leafs now. Not so much "how much time do they give Rielly" because I don't think Rielly is on any sort of clock but rather if we assume Rielly doesn't become that Norris-calibre defenseman how does the team build a championship-quality defense?

I think the "Offer-sheet Lindholm, trade for Trouba" idea recognizes that if Rielly isn't quite at that level that the chances of adding a player like that via trade are fairly slim and so it instead revolves around the idea that you can win without a top notch #1 if you have a couple of guys on the tier just below that. That's attractive because it seems fairly doable, even if there's not a lot of evidence it yields cups.

The other alternative is you build assets through the draft. Obviously Liljegren looks like an ideal solution if the Leafs stink again this year but even if they don't get him you can still use those assets in the service of trading for that sort of player(or at least players with that kind of potential) should they become available. It's worth mentioning that in the Cap years high value defensemen were probably the most likely players to move about. Pronger, Chara, Subban, Burns...it's not common but it happens enough that building up good and expendable assets can yield that result given patience.

 

[herman]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thought-ducks-lindholm-oilers-leafs-100-flames-gaudreau/

1. Basically, the Hampus Lindholm situation comes down to this: Anaheim wants him under Rasmus Ristolainen?s $5.4M salary.

At the beginning of last week, word around the NHL indicated the two sides were $700,000 apart per season (Lindholm at $5.8M, the Ducks at $5.1M). I think that?s closed, but the critical sticking point remains that if it?s a six-year term (as it is with the Buffalo defender), that buys up two years of unrestricted free agency for Lindholm as opposed to one for Ristolainen. Anaheim has flirted with a five-year offer, but Lindholm?s camp doesn?t seem interested.

 

[pnjunction]

I guess of all Cup-winning #1 D-men of the last 10 years Boston getting Chara in a trade comes to mind.

Assuming Rielly is as good as we can get the only potential comparable I see in the list (Niedermayer/Pronger, Lidstrom, Letang x2, Keith x3, Chara, Doughty x2) is maybe Letang?  Some of those guys are in a league of their own (Niedermayer, Lidstrom), he's not going to be a defensive rock like Keith or prime Chara and isn't as skilled as Doughty (who was a stud on Canada's gold-medal blue line at 20!).

Actually Letang's first 3 years don't look much different from Rielly, at least offensively (+/- is bad but the Leafs especially goaltending have stunk).  It kind of seems like unless we tank again or get a crazy lucky draft/trade (lottery win, Karlsson-like mid-1st pick, Chara trade) Rielly developing into a Letang-like player and then finding a solid defensive guy like 2010 Orpik or 2016 Dumoulin (?) is about all we can hope for?

 

[Kin]

I guess of all Cup-winning #1 D-men of the last 10 years Boston getting Chara in a trade comes to mind.

Chara was a UFA when he went to Boston, not a trade. Pronger is probably best defenseman to be traded in that time span and was effectively a #1 for Anaheim.

 

[pnjunction]

I guess of all Cup-winning #1 D-men of the last 10 years Boston getting Chara in a trade comes to mind.

Chara was a UFA when he went to Boston, not a trade. Pronger is probably best defenseman to be traded in that time span and was effectively a #1 for Anaheim.

Ah right I stand corrected, don't know how I forgot about Pronger moving around...  Still for both of those moves you have to go pretty far back, seems to be less big trades these days (Subban for Weber was trading one for another) and the UFA market is pretty lame now (they have to give up 8th year to leave a team, the open market salary demands are nuts, and Toronto is at massive tax disadvantage with the new bonus scams).

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Quick question guys  - if we successfully signed Lindholm via an offer sheet at a level that involves us needing to give up a first round pick, then at what point do we hand over this pick?  If it's as soon as the signing is made, could we trade for another first rounder beforehand and hand that over in the Lindholm deal or would it always be the Leafs own pick unless they didn't own it?

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Quick question guys  - if we successfully signed Lindholm via an offer sheet at a level that involves us needing to give up a first round pick, then at what point do we hand over this pick?  If it's as soon as the signing is made, could we trade for another first rounder beforehand and hand that over in the Lindholm deal or would it always be the Leafs own pick unless they didn't own it?

The draft picks a team gives up have to be their own.

 

[bustaheims]

Quick question guys  - if we successfully signed Lindholm via an offer sheet at a level that involves us needing to give up a first round pick, then at what point do we hand over this pick?  If it's as soon as the signing is made, could we trade for another first rounder beforehand and hand that over in the Lindholm deal or would it always be the Leafs own pick unless they didn't own it?

Has to be their own pick, and has to be in the next draft (or multiple drafts, if multiple picks in the same round are involved).

 

[mr grieves]

I guess of all Cup-winning #1 D-men of the last 10 years Boston getting Chara in a trade comes to mind.

Assuming Rielly is as good as we can get the only potential comparable I see in the list (Niedermayer [3rd]/Pronger [2nd], Lidstrom [53rd], Letang x2 [62nd], Keith x3 [54th], Chara [56th], Doughty x2 [2nd]) is maybe Letang?  Some of those guys are in a league of their own (Niedermayer, Lidstrom), he's not going to be a defensive rock like Keith or prime Chara and isn't as skilled as Doughty (who was a stud on Canada's gold-medal blue line at 20!).

Actually Letang's first 3 years don't look much different from Rielly, at least offensively (+/- is bad but the Leafs especially goaltending have stunk).  It kind of seems like unless we tank again or get a crazy lucky draft/trade (lottery win, Karlsson-like mid-1st pick, Chara trade) Rielly developing into a Letang-like player and then finding a solid defensive guy like 2010 Orpik or 2016 Dumoulin (?) is about all we can hope for?

While a UFA or trade for a proven commodity might offer the most obvious solution, it does seem the hardest, and high-volume drafting in later rounds, emphasizing defensemen there, might help things out. A bit weird they opted for the over-agers this draft, but, as a TLN article points out today, at their age, PK Subban (43rd) didn't look much different than Travis Dermott (34th) or Andrew Nielsen (65th).

 

[Kin]

While a UFA or trade for a proven commodity might offer the most obvious solution, it does seem the hardest, and high-volume drafting in later rounds, emphasizing defensemen there, might help things out. A bit weird they opted for the over-agers this draft, but, as a TLN article points out today, at their age, PK Subban (43rd) didn't look much different than Travis Dermott (34th) or Andrew Nielsen (65th).

We've talked about it before but of the defensemen who grew from being 2nd or 3rd round picks into those kinds of defensemen you're realistically looking at at least a Draft +4 or Draft +5 year until they actually are playing at that level.

 

[mr grieves]

While a UFA or trade for a proven commodity might offer the most obvious solution, it does seem the hardest, and high-volume drafting in later rounds, emphasizing defensemen there, might help things out. A bit weird they opted for the over-agers this draft, but, as a TLN article points out today, at their age, PK Subban (43rd) didn't look much different than Travis Dermott (34th) or Andrew Nielsen (65th).

We've talked about it before but of the defensemen who grew from being 2nd or 3rd round picks into those kinds of defensemen you're realistically looking at at least a Draft +4 or Draft +5 year until they actually are playing at that level.

Right. And there aren't enough defensemen in the system that I'd bet we're 3 or 4 years from seeing one emerging from within (which would be within our hopes for when the team would contend). A trade for a Trouba would likely set them back a couple years. -- So, doesn't seem a problem with a quick fix.

 

[herman]

I don't see how trading for Trouba really sets the Leafs back all that much. Assuming the trade is Gardiner + a forward prospect + whatever.

We don't have any RHD in the pipeline. Zaitsev is good, but I'd like another rising option. Carrick is awesome, but I think he tops out at 3/4. On the left side, we're about to have Dermott, Nielsen, Loov, Valiev as options bubbling to the NHL roster who also have 3/4 potential.

If our window to win is 2-4 years from now, and the likelihood of a 2nd-4th rd Def pick takes 3-5 years to pan out, wouldn't you want to have an emergent RHD on hand to complement Rielly now?

Whether or not Trouba is the right player to target is a different question, but the way I see it, it'll be even more of a crapshoot to draft a #1/2 RHD that peaks in the next 2-4 years. Teams don't really let go of their top RHD and Trouba is a chance for one with a high ceiling.

 

[Kin]

I don't see how trading for Trouba really sets the Leafs back all that much. Assuming the trade is Gardiner + a forward prospect + whatever.

I think we're now onto that being maybe too much of an assumption. Especially if, say, the upper limit on that forward prospect is Kapanen.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't see how trading for Trouba really sets the Leafs back all that much. Assuming the trade is Gardiner + a forward prospect + whatever.

I don't know if it really moves them forward though, unless an accompanying offer sheet for Lindholm goes up too. Losing Gardiner would make us pretty weak on the left-side. It'd be Rielly-Hunwick-Marincin as things stand right now. I don't want to be down on Dermott and Nielsen but we can't go pencilling them into top-4 spots.

I'm of the opinion that spreading out your top-2 defencemen is the way to go anyway, so we'd be going from Rielly-Zaitsev/Gardiner-X to Rielly-Zaitsev/X-Trouba. So there's a hole there regardless.