Heroic Shrimp
New member
https://twitter.com/romulusnotnuma/status/1514253921455415298
Better than Vrana.
Better than Vrana.
Auston Matthews
- Thread starter disco
- Start date
Heroic Shrimp said:
I think even last year, I said to my brother that Matthews could get 50 goals in 50 games and he's the only one in the NHL currently capable of that. What had held him back had been injuries and covid/season disruptions.
It actually should be *easier* to score 50 in 50 at the start of the season, barring injury, because defenses are typically looser. In previous seasons, Matthews and other scores scream out of the games at a higher ppg rate than mid-season when defenses become more in sych. So watch out 50-in-50 next year ... again, barring injury.
Heroic Shrimp
New member
Time to kick up the goal scoring again, Draisaitl scored 3 last night.
I've had this belief for a while that Auston Matthews contributions on the defensive end are more important to the Leafs winning than his goal scoring. I figured trying to prove this would be a good way for me to enter into the world of advanced stats and try and learn what the meanings behind certain advanced stats and what they mean in the context of a game.
I've managed to get a breakdown of the on ice stats for each player for each win and each loss the Leafs have this year. I then focused on shots for, shots against, goals for, goals against, expected goals for, expected goals against, scoring chances for, scoring chances against, on ice shooting percentage, on ice save percentage, and just for fun, PDO. Here are Auston Matthews averages in wins and in loses:
I think what the numbers above are telling me is that I am wrong. It looks like that in most cases Matthews defensive contributions are consistent between wins and loses, but that in the loses, Matthews got goalied. Now some of this may be caused by some really high scoring chance and shooting numbers in some of the losses, like the 4-2 Montreal loss a couple of weeks back.
However, it does lead to the question of how do you win a playoff series in which you're star players are being goalied? I think this is the challenge that the Leafs coaching staff faces. When you get into a playoff series, and Matthews can't score at a rate that he is used to, what do you do as a team? Not that Matthews is the only reason the Leafs win or lose, but he is a pretty important factor in the games outcome.
I've managed to get a breakdown of the on ice stats for each player for each win and each loss the Leafs have this year. I then focused on shots for, shots against, goals for, goals against, expected goals for, expected goals against, scoring chances for, scoring chances against, on ice shooting percentage, on ice save percentage, and just for fun, PDO. Here are Auston Matthews averages in wins and in loses:
| Outcome | SF | SA | GF | GA | xGF | xGA | SCF | SCA | On-Ice SH% | On-Ice SV% | PDO |
| Wins | 13.58 | 8.44 | 2.40 | 0.78 | 1.53 | 0.68 | 14.93 | 7.89 | 18.36 | 90.82 | 1.09 |
| Losses | 17.03 | 9.03 | 1.34 | 1.73 | 1.74 | 0.97 | 18.11 | 7.88 | 7.68 | 81.05 | 0.88 |
I think what the numbers above are telling me is that I am wrong. It looks like that in most cases Matthews defensive contributions are consistent between wins and loses, but that in the loses, Matthews got goalied. Now some of this may be caused by some really high scoring chance and shooting numbers in some of the losses, like the 4-2 Montreal loss a couple of weeks back.
However, it does lead to the question of how do you win a playoff series in which you're star players are being goalied? I think this is the challenge that the Leafs coaching staff faces. When you get into a playoff series, and Matthews can't score at a rate that he is used to, what do you do as a team? Not that Matthews is the only reason the Leafs win or lose, but he is a pretty important factor in the games outcome.
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Which, I think, is where the "Defense wins championships" narrative comes from. I don't know if I have ever really bought into that narrative. I think you have to be good defensively, but I don't know if you have to be the lock down, no shots against, type of defense to win a Stanley cup.
Ok just so that we?re all on the same page, non leafs fans and ?real? hockey fans are advising us to simmer down for several reasons:
1. Who cares what Matthews did, the leafs will be out in the first round.
2. He scored most of his goals against non playoff teams.
3. He scored most of his goals in empty nets.
4. Stamkos scored 60 and didn?t win the Hart so why does Matthews deserve it.
5. This is the leafs Stanley cup because, again, the leafs will be out in the first round.
6. Matthews can?t score in the playoffs so this is meaningless.
7. Matthews has 0 goals in the second round.
8. Leafs fans are idiots.
So we good now? We all on the same page? And I cannot over emphasize how much it must be made clear that the leafs will be out in the first round.
1. Who cares what Matthews did, the leafs will be out in the first round.
2. He scored most of his goals against non playoff teams.
3. He scored most of his goals in empty nets.
4. Stamkos scored 60 and didn?t win the Hart so why does Matthews deserve it.
5. This is the leafs Stanley cup because, again, the leafs will be out in the first round.
6. Matthews can?t score in the playoffs so this is meaningless.
7. Matthews has 0 goals in the second round.
8. Leafs fans are idiots.
So we good now? We all on the same page? And I cannot over emphasize how much it must be made clear that the leafs will be out in the first round.
Guilt Trip
Active member
Yup. We sucked. Matthews is overrated, may as well not watch anymore.Joe S. said:
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1524758926327230464
bustaheims
Active member
But, I was assured that Huberdeau, Gaudreau, Josi, and others were clearly more valuable than Matthews. This can't be right.
Bullfrog said:
60 goals vs. 120 points. Both milestones are very tough to hit, although Matthews' is a little more rare for sure. Matthews missing some games and that taking his point totals down a bit might make a difference to some voters. I say Matthews deserves it and obviously there's some bias involved there but at the end of the day if he loses it to McDavid it wouldn't be a travesty or anything like that.
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1525122471434780673
Not a surprise either obviously. Players did vote in Josi as the 3rd guy instead of Shesterkin.
Not a surprise either obviously. Players did vote in Josi as the 3rd guy instead of Shesterkin.
