Blue Jackets vs. Leafs - Oct. 20th, 7:00pm - SN

[CarltonTheBear]

So, nice win and all that...but...the top 9 of the offense is probably performing at an unsustainable pace.

Matthews - 1.64 PPG pacing 137 points

Looking at Matthews specifically here it's interesting that his 5-on-5 personal and on-ice shooting percentages are both pretty well within his career norms. And his actual 5-on-5 goal totals are still currently on pace to be at Berube levels than pre-Berube.

It's the powerplay that's accounting for this massive surge in points. For whatever reason he's never been a powerplay producer. Looking at his 3 peak seasons (21-22 to 23-24) Matthews was 3rd in the league in 5-on-5 points (behind MacKinnon and McDavid) and 1st in the league in 5-on-5 goals (with an insane 18 goal lead on 2nd). In that same span though he was just 23rd in powerplay points, and tied for 6th in powerplay goals. Even accounting for games missed he would have been almost 30 goals behind the PP goals leader in that span (Draisaitl).

He's currently on pace for 50+ points on the powerplay, this is generally where the league leaders are often around. His previous career high was 29 in 71 games. Last season he had 12 in 56 games. Even if he slows down a little on the powerplay if his production there can finally match what his 5-on-5 peers are capable of doing then a career year isn't really out of the question.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2112899450406387877

https://twitter.com/x/status/2112687578818208206

 

[Bill_Berg]

Looking at Matthews specifically here it's interesting that his 5-on-5 personal and on-ice shooting percentages are both pretty well within his career norms. And his actual 5-on-5 goal totals are still currently on pace to be at Berube levels than pre-Berube.

It's the powerplay that's accounting for this massive surge in points. For whatever reason he's never been a powerplay producer. Looking at his 3 peak seasons (21-22 to 23-24) Matthews was 3rd in the league in 5-on-5 points (behind MacKinnon and McDavid) and 1st in the league in 5-on-5 goals (with an insane 18 goal lead on 2nd). In that same span though he was just 23rd in powerplay points, and tied for 6th in powerplay goals. Even accounting for games missed he would have been almost 30 goals behind the PP goals leader in that span (Draisaitl).

He's currently on pace for 50+ points on the powerplay, this is generally where the league leaders are often around. His previous career high was 29 in 71 games. Last season he had 12 in 56 games. Even if he slows down a little on the powerplay if his production there can finally match what his 5-on-5 peers are capable of doing then a career year isn't really out of the question.

Thanks Alfredsson?

 

[rjd]

Looking at Matthews specifically here it's interesting that his 5-on-5 personal and on-ice shooting percentages are both pretty well within his career norms. And his actual 5-on-5 goal totals are still currently on pace to be at Berube levels than pre-Berube.

It's the powerplay that's accounting for this massive surge in points. For whatever reason he's never been a powerplay producer. Looking at his 3 peak seasons (21-22 to 23-24) Matthews was 3rd in the league in 5-on-5 points (behind MacKinnon and McDavid) and 1st in the league in 5-on-5 goals (with an insane 18 goal lead on 2nd). In that same span though he was just 23rd in powerplay points, and tied for 6th in powerplay goals. Even accounting for games missed he would have been almost 30 goals behind the PP goals leader in that span (Draisaitl).

He's currently on pace for 50+ points on the powerplay, this is generally where the league leaders are often around. His previous career high was 29 in 71 games. Last season he had 12 in 56 games. Even if he slows down a little on the powerplay if his production there can finally match what his 5-on-5 peers are capable of doing then a career year isn't really out of the question.

Maybe he is just starting to understand he doesn't need to be the scorer on the powerplay, and the unit is now more of a 5 man unit, which allows for him to pick up some more assists. In years past, they would try and move the puck to him most of the time, and most of the time he would shoot. Now I find he is deferring a little more to try and draw guys in, or taking it to the net, like the goal that was scored last night.

 

[YYZ]

Looking at Matthews specifically here it's interesting that his 5-on-5 personal and on-ice shooting percentages are both pretty well within his career norms. And his actual 5-on-5 goal totals are still currently on pace to be at Berube levels than pre-Berube.

It's the powerplay that's accounting for this massive surge in points. For whatever reason he's never been a powerplay producer. Looking at his 3 peak seasons (21-22 to 23-24) Matthews was 3rd in the league in 5-on-5 points (behind MacKinnon and McDavid) and 1st in the league in 5-on-5 goals (with an insane 18 goal lead on 2nd). In that same span though he was just 23rd in powerplay points, and tied for 6th in powerplay goals. Even accounting for games missed he would have been almost 30 goals behind the PP goals leader in that span (Draisaitl).

He's currently on pace for 50+ points on the powerplay, this is generally where the league leaders are often around. His previous career high was 29 in 71 games. Last season he had 12 in 56 games. Even if he slows down a little on the powerplay if his production there can finally match what his 5-on-5 peers are capable of doing then a career year isn't really out of the question.

That's a much nicer and gentler way of telling Frank he's a poopy pants.

 

[L K]

I think the biggest thing is just more targets.

Marner was great. Marner scored goals. Marner was not a shoot first guy at all.
Rielly was decent. Rielly rarely scored goals. Rielly was definitely not a shoot at all guy.

Marchenko replaces Marner. Raddysh replaces Rielly.

Four players are absolutely shooters on the PP. McKenna provides more of a playmaking role where Tavares provides more of a net front presence.

I think that really does make a huge difference.

 

[cw]

Looking at Matthews specifically here it's interesting that his 5-on-5 personal and on-ice shooting percentages are both pretty well within his career norms. And his actual 5-on-5 goal totals are still currently on pace to be at Berube levels than pre-Berube.

It's the powerplay that's accounting for this massive surge in points. For whatever reason he's never been a powerplay producer. Looking at his 3 peak seasons (21-22 to 23-24) Matthews was 3rd in the league in 5-on-5 points (behind MacKinnon and McDavid) and 1st in the league in 5-on-5 goals (with an insane 18 goal lead on 2nd). In that same span though he was just 23rd in powerplay points, and tied for 6th in powerplay goals. Even accounting for games missed he would have been almost 30 goals behind the PP goals leader in that span (Draisaitl).

He's currently on pace for 50+ points on the powerplay, this is generally where the league leaders are often around. His previous career high was 29 in 71 games. Last season he had 12 in 56 games. Even if he slows down a little on the powerplay if his production there can finally match what his 5-on-5 peers are capable of doing then a career year isn't really out of the question.

A few off-the-top-of-my-head thoughts (b4 I saw LK's post)

Compared to last season and maybe seasons gone by:

I think Marchenko is an upgrade over Knies on the PP

Although we haven't seen it result in points so much, having a threat from the point like Raddysh's shot is probably affecting the coverage teams are trying to employ - different from when the Leafs did not have a menacing point shot. Raddysh may be opening up opportunities for the others even though they haven't had the time to really incorporate him deeply into their PP.

And then they have this 1B and 1C option where Cowan as a puck hound or McKenna as a distributor can be introduced such that both those kids can alter the characteristics of and speed of the attack.

Add to that, Bill_Berg's observation that Alfredsson probably added some wrinkles having been coaching on the opposing team for a few seasons and with his experience ...

It would seem all of those things could make the Leafs PP tougher to defend against and therefore, result in more success ...

Then again, we're only 11 games in ... end of spitballing ..

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2112928426659021255