Contracts for the Big-3

[Kin]

This is not true. No matter what salaries are negotiated, the amount of money the owners get stays the same ? it is a fixed percentage of revenues.  The only thing that can change is how money is allocated amongst different classes players.

If we're going to be technical about it, you're not really right here. The fixed percentage of revenues is based on a division of leaguewide revenues. Money going out has to conform to the cap. Money coming in is not likewise divided. Assuming revenues are static, a team paying less in salary is going to be more profitable.

 

[lamajama]

After reading the multitude of posts here, I have to disagree with those that say Dubas has "botched" this negotiation and this is for the simple fact that no one knows anything about the numbers - only what the media has thrown out there. Dubas may be offering a very reasonable deal and Willy (and I still hold true in my mind that his Dad is a PITA influence) won't take it.

As I said above, even if that's the case I still think Dubas has mangled the negotiations. Saying that I think he's botched this is not numbers dependent.

Again all speculation but I really wonder why Willy does not take the bridge deal and prove himself worthy of a large deal.

As you say, we have no idea what sort of offers are on the table. So the idea of a bridge deal as some sort of quick and easy compromise doesn't necessarily hold up.

Especially because just about everyone here who suggests a bridge deal seems to do so on the idea that "Ok, you don't want to be underpaid for 6 years, so how about we underpay you even more for 2 years" is going to be an attractive offer.

As far as the mangled comment goes (I don't know how to snip that out) I still fail to see how only one side can be singled out as mangling or botching something when it takes two to complete a deal. Obviously I've never met either Dubas or Willy but my impression of Dubas is that he is pretty professional and respectful. I don't know how one can make that determination unless you knew both sides which as I have said I don't believe we'll ever get the true story.

I also do wonder sometimes how Lou would have handled this....at the first sign of resistance, he flies a few of his friends over to have a chat with Willy? or his Dad.... ;D

 

[Zee]

It's almost as if Dubas is taking one for the rest of the league.

If I'm going to play armchair psychologist here I think there's a good possibility that Dubas wants to endear himself to the fraternity with this, his first big contract negotiation.

The rest of the league has a vested interest in Dubas "winning" this as they'll have their own RFAs coming up and want a reasonable solution to this.  I think it's part of the reason nobody uses offer sheets, there might be some GMs willing to do so, but they'd have to get sign off from ownership and as we all know, they all want salaries to stay down.

This is not true. No matter what salaries are negotiated, the amount of money the owners get stays the same ? it is a fixed percentage of revenues.  The only thing that can change is how money is allocated amongst different classes players.

I mean that's true if the team spends to the cap, which not all teams do.  The more "value" contracts you can have, the more money you save. 

But Nik is right, it means more for the GM than the owners.  If you blow your wad on 3-4 players and have to fill out the roster with a bunch of scrubs, which results in the team being bad, you'll have to answer some difficult questions to your boss. 

I guess it's easier for GMs to make "mistakes" on players as long as the salaries are reasonable, once you start allocating huge % of the cap to a few players, you better be right on who gets that money.

 

[Kin]

As far as the mangled comment goes (I don't know how to snip that out) I still fail to see how only one side can be singled out as mangling or botching something when it takes two to complete a deal.

Because ultimately the decisions are entirely in Dubas' hands. Sign Nylander for his asking price or don't, trade him or don't. As I've said a few times now, I think what Dubas has done in these negotiations is ultimately bad for the Leafs regardless of whether Nylander gets signed or not.

Also, and this is sort of a side point, but there's a bit of a limit to how much I'm inclined to think that Nylander asking for significantly more than has ever been rumoured or reported is a real possibility. I've already said I think that signing him to what his reported asking price was a month or so ago would be more or less the right thing to do.

 

[slapshot]

There's a longer game and bigger stakes than just Nylander that resulted in this whole proceeding. It takes a hard line to establish a team salary grid.

Like I said, I think even if Nylander's ask is outrageous and they want to move on, this isn't the right way to do that.

And I think that anyone who thinks that the way Dubas has handled this will in anyway help him with the Matthews and Marner signings is kidding themselves. For all the talk about Nylander and the nefarious influence of his father, neither of those guys have re-upped to team friendly deals either.

I think it's reasonable to say how you feel about the situation, but to suggest anyone has handled it badly without being privy to the facts is pretty unfair. We don't know who is being the most unreasonable here until all the details come out. It seems the Leafs have been prepared to exhaust their chances of signing him up to the deadline. Dubas wouldn't be smart to cave to a player's demands that don't make sense for the team. Also, there may not have been a trade offered that made sense. There could be teams that could make a better offer in March because they plan to move salary out and would have more time to negotiate a deal with Nylander camp directly. I don't think Dubas has gotten to where he is at his age by being a dummy.

 

[Zee]

As far as the mangled comment goes (I don't know how to snip that out) I still fail to see how only one side can be singled out as mangling or botching something when it takes two to complete a deal.

Because ultimately the decisions are entirely in Dubas' hands. Sign Nylander for his asking price or don't, trade him or don't. As I've said a few times now, I think what Dubas has done in these negotiations is ultimately bad for the Leafs regardless of whether Nylander gets signed or not.

Also, and this is sort of a side point, but there's a bit of a limit to how much I'm inclined to think that Nylander asking for significantly more than has ever been rumoured or reported is a real possibility. I've already said I think that signing him to what his reported asking price was a month or so ago would be more or less the right thing to do.

How can it be ultimately bad for the Leafs if Nylander signs? I'm not following the reasoning here. The goal is to get him signed, if he does it's good for the Leafs

 

[cabber24]

My dream is that at a 12pm press conference tomorrow the Leafs announce the signing of all of the Big-3. 12M, 9M and 6.7M. Then we all drive around the city honking our horns like idiots in a true Leaf Nation stupor.

 

[Zee]

My dream is that at a 12pm press conference tomorrow the Leafs announce the signing of all of the Big-3. 12M, 9M and 6.7M. Then we all drive around the city honking our horns like idiots in a true Leaf Nation stupor.

Mitch Marner's agent Darren Ferris is the guest on the latest "Full 60" podcast with Craig Custance.  Marner ain't signing anything until next summer at the earliest.

 

[Kin]

How can it be ultimately bad for the Leafs if Nylander signs? I'm not following the reasoning here. The goal is to get him signed, if he does it's good for the Leafs

It's what I said to TML Fan earlier. At this point, even if Nylander signs for a comparatively team friendly rate, Dubas will have decided that what I think is a fairly unimportant amount of cap space was worth Nylander missing a good chunk of an important developmental year. To me, that's still not as good an outcome as just signing the guy.

 

[Kin]

I think it's reasonable to say how you feel about the situation, but to suggest anyone has handled it badly without being privy to the facts is pretty unfair.

I am absolutely comfortable with making that assessment based on the facts we do have. As I've said a bunch of times, that criticism isn't really contingent on Nylander's asking price short of some pretty reasonable assumptions.

 

[Zee]

How can it be ultimately bad for the Leafs if Nylander signs? I'm not following the reasoning here. The goal is to get him signed, if he does it's good for the Leafs

It's what I said to TML Fan earlier. At this point, even if Nylander signs for a comparatively team friendly rate, Dubas will have decided that what I think is a fairly unimportant amount of cap space was worth Nylander missing a good chunk of an important developmental year. To me, that's still not as good an outcome as just signing the guy.

I don't agree with this take at all.  Having Nylander signed is the most important thing here and is a win for the Leafs.  Having him miss 26-27 games at the start of the season is going to hurt his development?  I don't buy it.  He has a playoff run to get those 26-27 games back

 

[Kin]

Having Nylander signed is the most important thing here and is a win for the Leafs.

I agree. It's why they should have done it months ago.

 

[Zee]

Having Nylander signed is the most important thing here and is a win for the Leafs.

I agree. It's why they should have done it months ago.

So it's not "ultimately bad", just that it could have or should have been done earlier.  Keeping the asset is never a bad thing (unless he's wildly overpaid)

 

[Kin]

So it's not "ultimately bad", just that it could have or should have been done earlier.  Keeping the asset is never a bad thing (unless he's wildly overpaid)

I didn't say signing Nylander was ultimately bad, I said the job Dubas did in the negotiations is ultimately bad.

It's like if you're trying to sell your house and your estate agent tells you to turn down a 1m dollar offer because the market's about to heat up but it doesn't and you ultimately sell for 900k. You still sold your house and that's a good thing but the job your estate agent did? Not good.

 

[TML fan]

If you get offered 900k and you hold out for a million and you end up not selling your house at all, how did your agent do?

 

[Kin]

If you get offered 900k and you hold out for a million and you end up not selling your house at all, how did your agent do?

This is going pretty far afield but I guess it depends on the advice he gave? In your scenario the people making the bad decisions are the home owners and I don't necessarily think that reflects badly on the agent but this is where limited analogies are meant to be limited.

 

[Zee]

So it's not "ultimately bad", just that it could have or should have been done earlier.  Keeping the asset is never a bad thing (unless he's wildly overpaid)

I didn't say signing Nylander was ultimately bad, I said the job Dubas did in the negotiations is ultimately bad.

It's like if you're trying to sell your house and your estate agent tells you to turn down a 1m dollar offer because the market's about to heat up but it doesn't and you ultimately sell for 900k. You still sold your house and that's a good thing but the job your estate agent did? Not good.

Once again you seem to be "all player, no team" in my estimation.  You never had a kind word for Lou's dealings here, and you've been critical of Dubas since the start.  The analogy doesn't work, this isn't a case of the Leafs "losing" anything by not having Nylander play for the first part of the season.  If anything there could even be a benefit in that he'll be more fresh down the road without having played in the first 2 months.

You said "I think what Dubas has done in these negotiations is ultimately bad for the Leafs regardless of whether Nylander gets signed or not." which is ludicrous. Once Nylander signs it's business as usual for the Leafs and the team is ultimately that much better.  The fact the Leafs are 2nd overall in the league standings just shows that this game of chicken Dubas has played hasn't hurt the team in the slightest.

 

[TML fan]

Given the concerns you've expressed over his development it seems to me that Nylander and his agent are the homeowners in this crude, limited analogy.

 

[Kin]

You never had a kind word for Lou's dealings here, and you've been critical of Dubas since the start.

Both of those things are emphatically untrue. To the extent that I didn't like Lamoriello a large part of it was because I was so high on Dubas and the things he did during his limited time running the time. I argued pretty strongly that Dubas' so-called "apprenticeship" period was entirely unnecessary. I also feel like I was pretty complimentary of Dubas after signing Tavares.

You said "I think what Dubas has done in these negotiations is ultimately bad for the Leafs regardless of whether Nylander gets signed or not." which is ludicrous.

Yes. Given the range of options I still think this was the wrong call and an obviously wrong call. I give Dubas credit when he does good things, criticize when he does glaringly stupid things. To me, this falls in the latter category.

Once Nylander signs...

If Nylander signs...again, the result you seem to have such a problem with me describing as bad is, at this point, the best case scenario.

The fact the Leafs are 2nd overall in the league standings just shows that this game of chicken Dubas has played hasn't hurt the team in the slightest.

This is also untrue. Leaving aside what I said about Nylander's potential development(and his potential trade value) the fact that the team has a certain number of points doesn't mean that, with another very good player on the team, they couldn't have more points.

In a division that looks to be pretty competitive this year, I think every point is ultimately going to count.

 

[Kin]

Given the concerns you've expressed over his development it seems to me that Nylander and his agent are the homeowners in this crude, limited analogy.

Your analogy and my analogy seem pretty different and mine was limited by design. It was just an illustration to emphasize the point that just because a good result is ultimately achieved doesn't mean everyone did their job well. I wasn't casting a play.