Contracts for the Big-3

[Bill_Berg]

What I've consistently heard on sports radio is that Nylander's 8 million ask is with a finger pointing at Draisaitl's 8.5 million. Which is then immediately proclaimed to be a bad deal for the Oilers. I remember thinking that was an overpayment.

I do agree that something north of 7 is more in line with league salaries. But I suppose Dubas would say something south of 7 is more in line with Leaf salaries.

 

[Kin]

What I've consistently heard on sports radio is that Nylander's 8 million ask is with a finger pointing at Draisaitl's 8.5 million. Which is then immediately proclaimed to be a bad deal for the Oilers. I remember thinking that was an overpayment.

As I've said earlier, I don't think that Nylander necessarily has to look at Draisaitl to arrive around 8 million on a long term deal. I think there are a lot of deals that support an ask in that general vicinity. That said, I'm not sure I agree re: the Draisaitl deal. Maybe Edmonton saw something they liked in Draisaitl and knowing that they have a tough sell up there they maybe paid extra to keep him fat and happy for 8 years.

But even forgetting that, even if it is a "bad" deal, the extent to which it's a bad deal doesn't seem super relevant. If the argument re: RFAs is that rather than there being an actual market price for their services they're expected to just negotiate on whatever established salary structure there is, I think all deals within that structure then become equally relevant, good or bad.

 

[sickbeast]

Interesting CBA wrinkle.  If the Leafs sign Nylander after the season starts, they can see a cap savings in years 2+.  Especially if they front load it.

(Note.  Not sure why Nylander would want such a high salary on the first year, if he's only getting a percentage of it)

https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/1045315053539545088

Yeah I am cautiously hopeful that this is exactly what is happening.  It could be win-win for both the player and the team.  Nylander will get more money, and the Leafs will get some cap savings that will come in very handy.  I'm thinking one or two days into the season we will see Nylander signed.  Perhaps they have already alluded to this fact with his agent.  I'm not sure if that is allowed because they are kind of abusing the CBA by doing this.  In any event, we'll see.  I am hopeful.

 

[L K]

I think it?s stupidly optimistic to expect there to be any cap shenanigans with any lander intentionally holding out until the season.  He?ll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs aren?t signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.

 

[ZBBM]

I think it?s stupidly optimistic to expect there to be any cap shenanigans with any lander intentionally holding out until the season.  He?ll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs aren?t signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.

^^

 

[Guilt Trip]

He?ll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs aren?t signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.

And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.

 

[Kin]

Hey, if Nylander signs a deal with a ton of money in signing bonuses would they just pro-rate the signing bonus for the first year? Or could he sign a deal with a big signing bonus after the year begins and get the full amount?

 

[princedpw]

He?ll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs aren?t signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.

And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.

Sometimes, for some athletes, I think these contracts act as status symbols --- it's more than just the money, if that makes sense.  For instance, if Matthews feels he is better than Eichel, he may want the status of a larger contract than Eichel's (to take one example).

 

[Kin]

And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less.

I've said this before but that seems like something that isn't likely to be a major concern. Those sorts of injuries are pretty rare and if it's something they're really concerned about they're probably better off insuring themselves against it than negotiating on the basis of it.

 

[Guilt Trip]

He?ll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs aren?t signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.

And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.

Sometimes, for some athletes, I think these contracts act as status symbols --- it's more than just the money, if that makes sense.  For instance, if Matthews feels he is better than Eichel, he may want the status of a larger contract than Eichel's (to take one example).

Totally makes sense.

 

[Zee]

Interesting CBA wrinkle.  If the Leafs sign Nylander after the season starts, they can see a cap savings in years 2+.  Especially if they front load it.

(Note.  Not sure why Nylander would want such a high salary on the first year, if he's only getting a percentage of it)

https://twitter.com/CapFriendly/status/1045315053539545088

Yeah I am cautiously hopeful that this is exactly what is happening.  It could be win-win for both the player and the team.  Nylander will get more money, and the Leafs will get some cap savings that will come in very handy.  I'm thinking one or two days into the season we will see Nylander signed.  Perhaps they have already alluded to this fact with his agent.  I'm not sure if that is allowed because they are kind of abusing the CBA by doing this.  In any event, we'll see.  I am hopeful.

The problem is "a few days" doesn't give you anything, you have to have him sit a month to see a significant cap savings in years 2+

 

[L K]

He?ll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs aren?t signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.

And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.

UFA contracts don't equate with RFA years but if I'm Marner/Nylander/Matthews I'm looking at the last two years and thinking why should I be making 4 million dollars less than Tavares and playing for 7 million.

Tavares - 65G 85A 150P (159GP)
Matthews - 74G 58A 132P  (144GP)
Marner - 41G 89A 130P (159GP)
Nylander - 42G 80A 122P (163GP)

 

[Bates]

Well I guess we have established Matthews as under $12.5 then.

He?ll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs aren?t signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.

And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.

Sometimes, for some athletes, I think these contracts act as status symbols --- it's more than just the money, if that makes sense.  For instance, if Matthews feels he is better than Eichel, he may want the status of a larger contract than Eichel's (to take one example).

 

[Kin]

UFA contracts don't equate with RFA years but if I'm Marner/Nylander/Matthews I'm looking at the last two years and thinking why should I be making 4 million dollars less than Tavares and playing for 7 million.

Tavares - 65G 85A 150P (159GP)
Matthews - 74G 58A 132P  (144GP)
Marner - 41G 89A 130P (159GP)
Nylander - 42G 80A 122P  (163GP)

Yeah and additionally, I think when people say these guys are going to be motivated by winning have a ways to go to then think it just figures that they're going to be interested in taking a haircut. I think most of them are confident enough in their own abilities that they think they'll be able to win in most situations.

Considering the real argument for "taking less to win" isn't so much about signing guys like Nylander but rather giving Dubas less to work with at the end of the roster, you're basically asking players like Marner or Nylander to think that whether or not they can put together a winning team depends on the difference between Hainsey and a minimum salary guy.

 

[sickbeast]

I think it?s stupidly optimistic to expect there to be any cap shenanigans with any lander intentionally holding out until the season.  He?ll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs aren?t signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.

Maybe he will remain indoors for a few days. 

 

[OldTimeHockey]

For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.

 

[rdowdall]

For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.

There should be some middle ground though.  I agree with Nik's point in the Dubas thread about how this summer, with respect to contract negotiations for the big three, can't really be seen as a success. 

To me the problem is that there is an insistence on a long term deal.  At this point, if there isn't a fit on a long term deal, then go shorter.  Then it becomes a two or three year problem to solve. 

 

[Zee]

For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.

There should be some middle ground though.  I agree with Nik's point in the Dubas thread about how this summer, with respect to contract negotiations for the big three, can't really be seen as a success. 

To me the problem is that there is an insistence on a long term deal.  At this point, if there isn't a fit on a long term deal, then go shorter.  Then it becomes a two or three year problem to solve.

I get the impression that Dubas doesn't like to put things off. Sure he could push the problem to 2 years down the road with a bridge but he wants to get long term cost certainty now

 

[rdowdall]

For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.

There should be some middle ground though.  I agree with Nik's point in the Dubas thread about how this summer, with respect to contract negotiations for the big three, can't really be seen as a success. 

To me the problem is that there is an insistence on a long term deal.  At this point, if there isn't a fit on a long term deal, then go shorter.  Then it becomes a two or three year problem to solve.

I get the impression that Dubas doesn't like to put things off. Sure he could push the problem to 2 years down the road with a bridge but he wants to get long term cost certainty now

I don't get that thinking though.  In two years, when Marleau's contract comes off the books, you could conceivably give that money to Nylander, along with what he is making now minus the cost of an entry level player to replace him.  That's based on the premise that Marner and Matthews get signed next year. 

I think one of the major sticking points on this deal is that Nylander doesn't want his contract to be that much further behind Marners and Matthews, but those deals haven't been signed yet.  Also at this point it is really hard to predict how much they are going to sign for.  If Matthews comes out and hits 100 points this year, you bet he is going to want more than Tavares.  Maybe Tavares outscores Matthews, and that means that there is more of an argument to pay him less than Tavares.  Maybe Marner outscores them both.  There are too many moving parts here.  So I think the hang up is that Nylander is looking at this and saying, you know, in a years time, Marner and Matthews are going to be potentially locked in on contracts that are higher than 10 million per, and here I will be locked in on a contract where I am only getting 8 per.  So go shorter.  Get Nylander in camp.  Have the best season you can this year, and then deal with the problem in two years.  If the contract is that much of a problem, he can be moved at that time.  It also give the Leafs time to see if this 4 headed monster approach is going to work. 

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I thought this post was interesting:
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/leon-draisaitl-is-not-a-1-center.2530675/

With McDavid:

61 points (2.78 P/60)
55.6% CF
54.43% GF
5.59% CFRel (16-17), 7.06% CFRel (17-18) (Average 6.325% CFRel)
6.49% GFRel (16-17), 1.99% GFRel (17-18) (Average 4.24% GFRel)
56% OZFO

Without McDavid:

44 points (2.27 P/60)
49.2% CF
45.16% GF
-1.53% CFRel (16-17), 0.77% CFRel (17-18) (Average -0.38% CFRel)
-3.62% GFRel (16-17), -5.24% GFRel (17-18) (Average -4.43% GFRel)
52.6% OZFO

I can't find a similar analysis for Nylander with Matthews, but I'd be interested to see what the dropoff is.