Contracts for the Big-3

[Kin]

Where are you guys getting the 4 1st round picks from? If Willy signs at anything between $6,088,981 to $8,118,641 AAV, it's a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.

He'd have to sign at $10,148,303 AAV and above to return 4 1st round picks in compensation.

($8,118,642 to $10,148,302 would be 2 1st round picks,  a 2nd, and a 3rd)

We covered this on the last page. The AAV that compensation is based on is the total value of the offer sheet divided by 5 or the term of the contract, whichever is lower.

 

[dappleganger]

All I'm really saying is although not ideal, getting picks back for Willy wouldn't be the worse thing in the world because this team is going to need young, good players on entry level deals to fill out the roster in the near future.

The problem with that is, getting an elite player with an eighth overall pick is pretty rare.  The chances of the Leafs ever getting another Nylander out of a first, second, and third round pick are quite remote.  I also doubt they would get a top ten pick out of it.  The four first rounders would be a lot more interesting but I don't think there is any meaningful chance of that happening.

IMO Nylander puts the Leafs over the top this season.  They should find a way to sign him any way they can.  And then trade him in the off season.  It doesn't look like they will be able to get him on a team friendly deal.  And quite frankly Mitch Marner makes Nylander look like a mediocre player by comparison.  This might sound crazy but I actually think Marner could turn out to be just as good a player as Auston Matthews, if not better.  Yes, Matthews has the elite skill set, but I've never seen a player with wheels and hockey sense like Mitch Marner.  Not on the Leafs anyhow.  I love the way he backchecks.  He never seems to run out of gas.  100% if it comes down to keeping Nylander or Marner, the team has got to go with Marner hands down.  And IMO he needs to get paid.  Matthews is going to get his $12.5 million.  That much is a given.  But IMO they should pay Marner big time, even if it means they can't keep Nylander.

I don't disagree, but I think the Leafs have a decent Willy replacement in Kapanen already, and the money they're going to pay Willy could go to address the need on defence.

I don't think I'm as high on Nylander as others. I would have traded him last offseason for a defensemen.

I'll be happy when he's back scoring goals for the Leafs.  ;D

 

[dappleganger]

Where are you guys getting the 4 1st round picks from? If Willy signs at anything between $6,088,981 to $8,118,641 AAV, it's a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.

He'd have to sign at $10,148,303 AAV and above to return 4 1st round picks in compensation.

($8,118,642 to $10,148,302 would be 2 1st round picks,  a 2nd, and a 3rd)

We covered this on the last page. The AAV that compensation is based on is the total value of the offer sheet divided by 5 or the term of the contract, whichever is lower.

Ahh, Thank you. No way a team is going to offer that.

 

[Zee]

It's evident that Matthews is gonna get PAID. If he stays healthy this season would anyone be surprised if he puts up 50+ goals and 100+ points?  He's just been named NHL star of the week, the sky is the limit for this kid.  This more than anything just shows how each and every 500K savings on a Nylander deal will help make it all fit together.  If Matthews has the type of season we think he can his deal will be like McDavid.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Personally, I tend to think NHL GMs want to make trades that are good for their team.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

heh, the exeception that proves the rule.

 

[Kin]

They all want to, not all of them can. That's why there are TV analyst jobs for them.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

They all want to, not all of them can. That's why there are TV analyst jobs for them.

It'd be great if Ottawa hired him as the next GM

 

[Phileas Fogg]

It's evident that Matthews is gonna get PAID. If he stays healthy this season would anyone be surprised if he puts up 50+ goals and 100+ points?  He's just been named NHL star of the week, the sky is the limit for this kid.  This more than anything just shows how each and every 500K savings on a Nylander deal will help make it all fit together.  If Matthews has the type of season we think he can his deal will be like McDavid.

And it's early yet with a uselessly small sample, but when using Nylander's comps, it just again likely shows the influence of Matthews in these numbers that put him at 7M+. Without Nylander this season, Matthews seems to have no problem putting up points, and when Kapenen went from the 4th line to the 1st with Matthews, he put up a multipoint effort last night and was dangerous all game.

If Nylander was on, say, Kadri's wing with Brown last season, what would be the delta? 10 points? 20? Matthews is likely the difference for Nylander right there between a 6M player, and a 7M+ ask.

 

[Zee]

It's evident that Matthews is gonna get PAID. If he stays healthy this season would anyone be surprised if he puts up 50+ goals and 100+ points?  He's just been named NHL star of the week, the sky is the limit for this kid.  This more than anything just shows how each and every 500K savings on a Nylander deal will help make it all fit together.  If Matthews has the type of season we think he can his deal will be like McDavid.

And it's early yet with a uselessly small sample, but when using Nylander's comps, it just again likely shows the influence of Matthews in these numbers that put him at 7M+. Without Nylander this season, Matthews seems to have no problem putting up points, and when Kapenen went from the 4th line to the 1st with Matthews, he put up a multipoint effort last night and was dangerous all game.

If Nylander was on, say, Kadri's wing with Brown last season, what would be the delta? 10 points? 20? Matthews is likely the difference for Nylander right there between a 6M player, and a 7M+ ask.

Matthews is a horse and will produce with anyone even remotely decent. The fact the Leafs now have Tavares frees up more favorable matchups for Matthews from time to time which helps him produce even more.  Throw in that crazy first PP unit and yeah, his point totals won't be suffering without Willy. In fact when Nylander comes back it would be interesting to see if he could produce with Kadri to give the Leafs 3 amazing scoring lines.

 

[sickbeast]

All I'm really saying is although not ideal, getting picks back for Willy wouldn't be the worse thing in the world because this team is going to need young, good players on entry level deals to fill out the roster in the near future.

The problem with that is, getting an elite player with an eighth overall pick is pretty rare.  The chances of the Leafs ever getting another Nylander out of a first, second, and third round pick are quite remote.  I also doubt they would get a top ten pick out of it.  The four first rounders would be a lot more interesting but I don't think there is any meaningful chance of that happening.

IMO Nylander puts the Leafs over the top this season.  They should find a way to sign him any way they can.  And then trade him in the off season.  It doesn't look like they will be able to get him on a team friendly deal.  And quite frankly Mitch Marner makes Nylander look like a mediocre player by comparison.  This might sound crazy but I actually think Marner could turn out to be just as good a player as Auston Matthews, if not better.  Yes, Matthews has the elite skill set, but I've never seen a player with wheels and hockey sense like Mitch Marner.  Not on the Leafs anyhow.  I love the way he backchecks.  He never seems to run out of gas.  100% if it comes down to keeping Nylander or Marner, the team has got to go with Marner hands down.  And IMO he needs to get paid.  Matthews is going to get his $12.5 million.  That much is a given.  But IMO they should pay Marner big time, even if it means they can't keep Nylander.

I don't disagree, but I think the Leafs have a decent Willy replacement in Kapanen already, and the money they're going to pay Willy could go to address the need on defence.

I don't think I'm as high on Nylander as others. I would have traded him last offseason for a defensemen.

I'll be happy when he's back scoring goals for the Leafs.  ;D

I actually think Kapanen compliments Matthews more than Nylander does, and he is a more complete player to boot.  Kapanen is good defensively and he's a great penalty killer.

I'm also wondering if Nylander could mess up the team chemistry.  I remember the videos last year of him refusing to block shots.  Now if they sign him for the big deal he wants, it's kind of a cloud looming over the team.  Something would have to give.  Someone would have to go.  And you would have people looking at each other and questioning who the team would keep.  I don't think it would be a good thing for the team overall.  I think Nylander and everyone else would know that the team is only keeping him for this season, and it would affect how they interact and just the general vibe around the team.  IMO.

 

[herman]

Lol

 

[Kin]

I know one thing I like to do with uselessly small sample sizes is draw conclusive inferences from them.

 

[sickbeast]

Lol

Nice rebuttal.  I feel overwhelmed by facts right now.

The truth of the matter is that you are a slightly more knowledgable and somewhat less obnoxious version of Nik the Trik.  You like to toot your own horn.  You rarely if ever post in agreement with *anyone* on here.  I can also see how someone like you would not see the importance of team chemistry.  You're probably the type of person that would disrupt it.

 

[ZBBM]

Nylander and team chemistry:

1.  It's never been a problem.
2.  No indication it would be now.

Nylander and "cloud over team":

Everyone knows that people are going to get salary-squeezed off this roster at some point, Shanny's admonitions notwithstanding.  The four largest contracts will almost certainly be 91, 34, 29, 16.  If at some point they determine that they cannot keep all four, 91 and 34 are staying so it's down to 16 or 29.  And much as I like Nylander, he'll likely be the one they let go.  And (at this stage in his and Marner's careers) I would agree with that.

But that day is several years down the road, even if they somehow win it all this year.  And that day may never come, if we take Dubas at his word. 

So there is no cloud on the horizon, IMO.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I know one thing I like to do with uselessly small sample sizes is draw conclusive inferences from them.

No, I put enough question marks and couched it well enough for anyone to see it as an early theory.

But I think your comment helps me analyze your character flaws further - I've noticed that you tend to nitpick without meaningful contribution when you're not as close to the center of attention than you'd like to be. This is definitely something that we can work at.

 

[Kin]

No, I put enough question marks and couched it well enough for anyone to see it as an early theory.

The theory being Auston Matthews is a good hockey player? One that would likely succeed no matter what his situation?

Well, kudos on cracking the case on that one.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

No, I put enough question marks and couched it well enough for anyone to see it as an early theory.

The theory being Auston Matthews is a good hockey player? One that would likely succeed no matter what his situation?

Well, kudos on cracking the case on that one.

No, not at all- read it again. Take a deep breath first, and try to picture other posters as fun, pleasant people as opposed to adversaries that need to be defeated. The idea in the post is to try to establish the relative benefit of being on his line in a contract negotiation setting, similarly to Moulson with Tavares, who signed a much too rich deal with Buffalo on that basis.

 

[L K]

Lol

Nice rebuttal.  I feel overwhelmed by facts right now.

The truth of the matter is that you are a slightly more knowledgable and somewhat less obnoxious version of Nik the Trik.  You like to toot your own horn.  You rarely if ever post in agreement with *anyone* on here.  I can also see how someone like you would not see the importance of team chemistry.  You're probably the type of person that would disrupt it.

It?s amusing reading your constant posts attacking others and acting holier than thou over and over again.  It really is.

 

[Kin]

The idea in the post is to try to establish the relative benefit of being on his line in a contract negotiation setting, similarly to Moulson with Tavares, who signed a much too rich deal with Buffalo on that basis.

Except most of it was about Matthews scoring himself. The idea of his relative benefit to his linemates is confined to one game from Kapanen. This, of course, is weighed against the 180 or so games we've actually seen from Nylander. Including, last year, a fair number without Matthews.

I get it man. I've seen your schtick. You get personal because you don't have much else. But I've dealt with it from much cleverer people than you and it doesn't affect me, no matter how often you want to derail the board with it.