Contracts for the Big-3

[Frank E]

You're talking about a deal done 8 years ago on a guy that had a 30 goal  - 88 point season, came in 9th best in the league in scoring, 7th in Hart Trophy voting...that deal is going to be some kind of benchmark for Marner's?

But even beyond you being wrong about the timing of when that deal was signed, let's say you're right and Kane only signed that deal after his ELC expired. Marner's agent is still being asked to negotiate a long term(one assumes) deal on the basis of his first two seasons. If Marner's agents are inclined to really make a push for their client you'd have to think they'd probably look at him as being likely to also have a big third year(especially playing with Tavares) and want to factor that growth into the contract.

So let's say Marner goes out and has a really good year. Not quite Kane level but, say, 80 points or so. Then let's say the Leafs have a decent run in the playoffs and Marner plays well, albeit not as well as Kane.

Then, yeah, I think absolutely Kane's contract is going to be seen as an interesting comparison. Sure, he wasn't quite at Kane's level(presumably pushing things a little lower cap % wise) but the Leafs would probably be trying to buy UFA years that the Blackhawks didn't(presumably pushing things higher cap % wise).

My point here was never Marner is as good as Kane or Marner is going to make the same demands as Kane but just that there's lots of ways to peel an orange and agents are always going to be looking at the ways to present their clients in the best light. Marner and Kane have had pretty similar production throughout their first two seasons despite the fact that Kane had almost twice as much PP ice time as Marner did in that span(660 minutes to 360 minutes).

We'll see, I guess... but what is now clear though is that I was definitely wrong.

 

[Kin]

Also, can I just say what a bummer the Salary Cap is with regards to this sort of thing? We should be stoked by the idea that Marner would be worthy of a contract that approximates Kane. Back in the day, it was a point of pride that the guy on your team was as good or better than the guy on the other team.

Now, though, the cap has turned us all into amateur accountants who think our best interests are served by trying to present our talented young players in the worst possible light. It's stupid and not all that conducive to fandom, I don't think.

 

[cabber24]

Also, can I just say what a bummer the Salary Cap is with regards to this sort of thing? We should be stoked by the idea that Marner would be worthy of a contract that approximates Kane. Back in the day, it was a point of pride that the guy on your team was as good or better than the guy on the other team.

Now, though, the cap has turned us all into amateur accountants who think our best interests are served by trying to present our talented young players in the worst possible light. It's stupid and not all that conducive to fandom, I don't think.

I have no idea what is going to happen to cap going forward considering how unstable things are under the Trump admin. There has been some wild swings in the CAD. I read today that Betman is going after hockey related gambling so who knows? Hockey related revenues? I think so.

 

[Frank E]

Also, can I just say what a bummer the Salary Cap is with regards to this sort of thing? We should be stoked by the idea that Marner would be worthy of a contract that approximates Kane. Back in the day, it was a point of pride that the guy on your team was as good or better than the guy on the other team.

Now, though, the cap has turned us all into amateur accountants who think our best interests are served by trying to present our talented young players in the worst possible light. It's stupid and not all that conducive to fandom, I don't think.

I'm not with you here.  I think most Leaf fans are pretty stoked about the team, and so much so that they want to make sure all the pieces fit together under the cap.  I'd bet most Leafs fans would place the forward group amongst the best in the league today.  So I think that as much as they love Marner, they want him to sign as cheap a deal as possible so that the Leafs can afford more Marners.  I'd prefer their next Marner to be a 80 point RD that signs for $3m...see how that works?  It's fun!

 

[Bill_Berg]

Better now than mid season. Summer's are slow for the team I would think, late July and Aug anyway.

Plus it wouldn't just be vacations. There are charity ping pong tourneys and things too.

I don't know. It's just tough to come up with a reason for a contract to take months to work out, unless there was a disagreement.

Maybe I'm completely talking outside of myself here but everytime I watch movies about hotshot big time agents or executives they make it a point to essentially always be reachable by phone, vacation or no(and honestly, I'd think contract negotiating season would be the busiest time for them). I genuinely wonder if there's ever a time where someone like Dubas can really take an extended vacation where he's not at least available for consultation.

Like I was saying earlier, I'm not sure most players would get involved unless absolutely necessary so they can probably play all the beer pong hey want.

Only movies I get to watch start with Disney. So my insight is weak in that sense.

Maybe replace vacations with obligations then. Agent is in LA for a signing, this week, so he can't fly to Toronto to finalize the Nylander signing. Is he enjoying LA"s sun and beaches, who cares. Point is he's busy so they schedule the Nylander signing for early Sept.

What I wonder is if there is really work going on every day or week on Nylander's contract, or if they just have other stuff to do. I suppose actual vacations may not be a top ten in the things to do.

 

[Kin]

So I think that as much as they love Marner, they want him to sign as cheap a deal as possible so that the Leafs can afford more Marners.

I really don't get how you can't see how that puts players in a needlessly adversarial place with fans. When McDavid, who's absolutely 100% worth the maximum, negotiated his deal originally he got heat for being "selfish" for wanting 13.25. He had to negotiate his own deal down to avoid that.

 

[Kin]

What I wonder is if there is really work going on every day or week on Nylander's contract, or if they just have other stuff to do. I suppose actual vacations may not be a top ten in the things to do.

My guess is that it's more about having other stuff to do. Front Office staff have multiple deals to work out, agents have multiple clients and both of them probably have other professional obligations(Dubas probably wanted to be around for some of the rookie camp, for instance) so I'd wager things like a Nylander negotiation gets scheduled for a certain time and everyone's cool with chilling out until that day.

That said, if it was really a spur under anyone's saddle, my guess is Nylander's camp could call Dubas and vice-versa to set something up whenever. I just don't think that urgency typically exists unless people think things will get contentious.

 

[Bill_Berg]

What I wonder is if there is really work going on every day or week on Nylander's contract, or if they just have other stuff to do. I suppose actual vacations may not be a top ten in the things to do.

My guess is that it's more about having other stuff to do. Front Office staff have multiple deals to work out, agents have multiple clients and both of them probably have other professional obligations(Dubas probably wanted to be around for some of the rookie camp, for instance) so I'd wager things like a Nylander negotiation gets scheduled for a certain time and everyone's cool with chilling out until that day.

That said, if it was really a spur under anyone's saddle, my guess is Nylander's camp could call Dubas and vice-versa to set something up whenever. I just don't think that urgency typically exists unless people think things will get contentious.

Ya I think that's about it.

Also generally agree with the cap argument you made. Although I personally enjoy spending a few min on cap friendly thinking through the options. But I'd prefer phone app logic puzzles and no cap, to cap puzzles and cap.

 

[Coco-puffs]

So I think that as much as they love Marner, they want him to sign as cheap a deal as possible so that the Leafs can afford more Marners.

I really don't get how you can't see how that puts players in a needlessly adversarial place with fans. When McDavid, who's absolutely 100% worth the maximum, negotiated his deal originally he got heat for being "selfish" for wanting 13.25. He had to negotiate his own deal down to avoid that.

The cap puts this pressure on.  Want to have a good team, you have to have a number of players on deals where their value exceeds the cost.  So yes, players can be put in adversarial place with fans if they shoot for the absolute most knowing it can impact the team composition.

The solution is simple:  get rid of the cap.  But the Owners aren't going to let that happen so it is what it is. 

At the end of the day though, I wouldn't blame fans for thinking this way at all... its not like McDavid, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander are really going to feel the difference of a couple of million a year.  They will all make over $50M in their careers MINIMUM.  None of us are asking Marner to sign for 2M a season.  We're saying make 6M instead of 8M... so 48M vs 64M on an 8-year deal.  Yeah, I'm not feeling bad about hoping that's how it plays out.  He'll be just fine making approximately 52M for the first 11 years of his career (ie, he'll still be able to make more).

 

[Kin]

The cap puts this pressure on.  Want to have a good team, you have to have a number of players on deals where their value exceeds the cost.  So yes, players can be put in adversarial place with fans if they shoot for the absolute most knowing it can impact the team composition.

I don't think McDavid at 13.25 is him shooting for the absolute most. I actually think it's pretty reasonable given the league's salary structure. Moreover, the difference between McDavid at 13.25 and 12.5 might not make a huge difference to McDavid, it's not like that 750k of cap space is likely to be a massive difference in how the Oilers do either.

At the end of the day though, I wouldn't blame fans for thinking this way at all... its not like McDavid, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander are really going to feel the difference of a couple of million a year.  They will all make over $50M in their careers MINIMUM.  None of us are asking Marner to sign for 2M a season.  We're saying make 6M instead of 8M... so 48M vs 64M on an 8-year deal.  Yeah, I'm not feeling bad about hoping that's how it plays out.  He'll be just fine making approximately 52M for the first 11 years of his career (ie, he'll still be able to make more).

I didn't say I blame fans or you should feel bad, I said it sucks that the cap creates this situation.

Fans can feel however they want about how much a player might miss 16 million dollars(or 8-ish million after taxes/agent costs) but I guess the trade-off may be that the players may feel less inclined to stick around when they don't have to.

 

[Kin]

Ya I think that's about it.

Also generally agree with the cap argument you made. Although I personally enjoy spending a few min on cap friendly thinking through the options. But I'd prefer phone app logic puzzles and no cap, to cap puzzles and cap.

Another thing to think about, and this might very well be me spitballing here, is that we tend to think of negotiations as being pretty simple. The team has a AAV and term they want, the player has a AAV and term they want and they hopefully meet somewhere in the middle. For most players, I'd guess it does work that way.

But in a case like Nylander's, where he's certainly got a ton of potential but there are questions about his ceiling and to what extent he's really shown his potential, I wonder if it's not a situation where the Leafs might actually make him several offers. Like, one for 5 or 6 years or another for 7 or 8. Or even all four at different AAVs that represent how much they want to invest in his future and see how Nylander wants to play things. Nylander and his representation then might want to take some time to think over things and how they want to proceed and make a few counter-offers of their own.

 

[Coco-puffs]

The cap puts this pressure on.  Want to have a good team, you have to have a number of players on deals where their value exceeds the cost.  So yes, players can be put in adversarial place with fans if they shoot for the absolute most knowing it can impact the team composition.

I don't think McDavid at 13.25 is him shooting for the absolute most. I actually think it's pretty reasonable given the league's salary structure. Moreover, the difference between McDavid at 13.25 and 12.5 might not make a huge difference to McDavid, it's not like that 750k of cap space is likely to be a massive difference in how the Oilers do either.

At the end of the day though, I wouldn't blame fans for thinking this way at all... its not like McDavid, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander are really going to feel the difference of a couple of million a year.  They will all make over $50M in their careers MINIMUM.  None of us are asking Marner to sign for 2M a season.  We're saying make 6M instead of 8M... so 48M vs 64M on an 8-year deal.  Yeah, I'm not feeling bad about hoping that's how it plays out.  He'll be just fine making approximately 52M for the first 11 years of his career (ie, he'll still be able to make more).

I didn't say I blame fans or you should feel bad, I said it sucks that the cap creates this situation.

Fans can feel however they want about how much a player might miss 16 million dollars(or 8-ish million after taxes/agent costs) but I guess the trade-off may be that the players may feel less inclined to stick around when they don't have to.

I don't disagree with anything you've said, was just pointlessly adding to the conversation.  The CAP is certainly the problem and it definitely has these consequences.

And yes, I hope Marner, Nylander, and Matthews sign for 1-2M less per year than most would peg their contract worth at.  If that means the players are less inclined to stick around when the don't have to (when they hit UFA in 6-8 years) then so be it.  I'd hope the multiple championships we've won in that time can convince them otherwise, but they will have earned the right to become UFA's and choose their path going forward.

 

[Kin]

And yes, I hope Marner, Nylander, and Matthews sign for 1-2M less per year than most would peg their contract worth at.  If that means the players are less inclined to stick around when the don't have to (when they hit UFA in 6-8 years) then so be it.

Just to clarify, it's not just hoping they take less that I think is the issue. I think it's the bad reactions if they decide not to take less that creates an unfortunate situation. If our relationship with players is that transactional, where in our eyes they become bad people or bad teammates if they want to earn more than we'd like them to then it seems fairly unlikely that you're going to engender deeply warm feelings coming back the other way.

 

[azzurri63]

I trust Dubas when he said signing all 3 wouldn't be an issue but man some of the signings lately and rumours on what guys are asking I'm not liking what I'm seeing or hearing. If Dubas talked to the 3 and explained the Tavares signing and somehow convinced them to take a slight discount then all good. But I personally don't see the big 3 signing for less than 25 million. Only thing that keeps it under that is Nylander getting Pasternak numbers which I think is where he should be. If we can get him for around 6 then it's doable. The Eichel and Draisaitl contracts were a huge mistake as I don't think any player deserves those kind of numbers for a second contract unless you are absolutely elite ie McDavid. See what happens.

 

[Coco-puffs]

And yes, I hope Marner, Nylander, and Matthews sign for 1-2M less per year than most would peg their contract worth at.  If that means the players are less inclined to stick around when the don't have to (when they hit UFA in 6-8 years) then so be it.

Just to clarify, it's not just hoping they take less that I think is the issue. I think it's the bad reactions if they decide not to take less that creates an unfortunate situation. If our relationship with players is that transactional, where in our eyes they become bad people or bad teammates if they want to earn more than we'd like them to then it seems fairly unlikely that you're going to engender deeply warm feelings coming back the other way.

For me personally, I'm not going to have a bad reaction of these guys get deals near their worth at all.  Even if they get more than that, I'm not going to perceive them as bad people or bad teammates.  Its just going to suck from a competitiveness standpoint when we can't add that other piece that would help bring a championship or we have to trade a good piece because their next contract won't fit.  I won't harbour bad feelings towards the players.  Its gonna be the same feeling you seem to have, which is that the salary cap sucks!

 

[Zee]

No contracts yet, you're dead to me Dubas

 

[Kaberle15]

1 thing that I would like the next CBA to include is either a luxury tax to keep 1-2 stars to max contract (see NBA model)
or the ability to buy cap space, ie 10 Mi over 5 years the team selling gets 50% as money.
50% of the Cap you are buying over time would be very nice to teams in need of money and to teams in need of the cap space. IN the example above, to buy 10mi x 5 years the team pays 5mi x 5 years to the team selling.

 

[Zee]

Anyone thinking that the Leafs are trying to sign all 3 long term and want to announce the big 3 at the same time?  It's been so quiet on this front other than the occasional report of "talks are ongoing" that I've heard from Nylander and Matthews's camp.  Probably not realistic that they'd be able to keep all 3 contracts on the down low so as to announce them on the same day, but you never know.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Anyone thinking that the Leafs are trying to sign all 3 long term and want to announce the big 3 at the same time?  It's been so quiet on this front other than the occasional report of "talks are ongoing" that I've heard from Nylander and Matthews's camp.  Probably not realistic that they'd be able to keep all 3 contracts on the down low so as to announce them on the same day, but you never know.

I think most of us are hoping for this, and I'd bet the Leafs would love to do all 3 deals now and have their financial picture long term figured out, but achieving that is another story. 

 

[dappleganger]

Anyone think that the Leafs should just say to AM, WN, and MM, here's $24m, divide it amongst yourselves however you see fit.

;D