Contracts for the Big-3

[Guilt Trip]

They have an idiot for a GM tho.

Did they? So what leverage would a smart GM have had if McDavid demanded 14 million and not a penny less? Let Connor McDavid sit? Let him sign an offer sheet and take picks for a generational talent?

Yes the idiot is still in place. The issue isn't with McDavid's contract or any generational talent like him. Those guy's get paid, just like Matthews will...It's Dri's contract. Oilers had leverage with him, they didn't use it.

 

[mr grieves]

The Matthews contract has its own thread, but that's the least interesting of them all (it'll be $11m).

Marner's will be interesting to see.

Came across players who've had similar production. Here are the PPG, the age the players were when doing it, and the circumstances under which they signed their second contract.

Player??......?..	GP??..	Pts??..	PPG??.	Age?....?.	Signed?......	CH%......	Length?..
D Pastrnak	173	123	0.71	18-20	at expiry	8.89%	6
T Hall	126	95	0.75	19-20	after yr2	10.00%	7
V Tarasenko	179	135	0.75	21-23	at expiry	10.27%	8
B Ryan	168	131	0.78	20-22	holdout	8.59%	5
J Eberle	147	119	0.81	20-21	after yr2	10.00%	6
M Marner	159	130	0.82	19-20	???	???	???
J Gaudreau	159	142	0.89	21-22	holdout	9.25%	6
P Kane	162	158	0.98	19-20	after yr2	11.09%	5

 

[Kin]

I know people can get sick of my relentless optimism but I do think that of the three contracts, Marner is the one where we're most likely to be pleasantly surprised by the number. Because he's local, because he's more of a set-up guy than a scorer, because I sort of suspect that he's benefitted as much as anyone by the Leafs choosing to balance their scoring lines...I don't know. I know we all think he'll get more than Nylander but I wouldn't be shocked if they're real close.

 

[mr grieves]

I think it's probably true that Marner's number will be lower than we might expect... but I still think his peers' contracts mean we should adjust what constitutes 'pleasantly surprising' from, say, $7m x 8 or $5m bridge deal to something more like $8.5m x 8... or $8m x 7... $7.5m x 6... $7m x 5. Those seem a bit more realistic 'hometown discounts' given the comparables.

 

[Kin]

I think it's probably true that Marner's number will be lower than we might expect... but I still think his peers' contracts mean we should adjust what constitutes 'pleasantly surprising' from, say, $7m x 8 or $5m bridge deal to something more like $8.5m x 8... or $8m x 7... $7.5m x 6... $7m x 5. Those seem a bit more realistic 'hometown discounts' given the comparables.

Well, alright, but let's look at the Hall contract for instance. Same age, really comparable goals per game, signed after year 2...with some differences. Hall was a #1 pick, was more of a goal scorer and probably less sheltered than Marner but Marner was healthy both years, contributed to a winning team and is coming off a good playoffs.

Hall got 7 years at 10% of the cap. So the equivalent for Marner would be 7 years and roughly 56 million or so or 8 million per. However, as I've argued elsewhere, Hall signed when RFA's seemed to be using their leverage a little less than they do now so that may be on the low side. But there's also no hometown discount there(or a "Look at this great team we have, don't you want to be cap friendly?" discount)

But, like I just said, Marner strikes me as the guy who's maybe most likely to sign for slightly below his best comps. If we figure the range on his deal is somewhere between 7 million(Pastrnak's % roughly) and 9 million(Kane) long term, all I'm saying is that it wouldn't shock me if he came down on the less expensive side of that divide. It wouldn't shock me if he didn't, but you know...just my guess.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

But, like I just said, Marner strikes me as the guy who's maybe most likely to sign for slightly below his best comps. If we figure the range on his deal is somewhere between 7 million(Pastrnak's % roughly) and 9 million(Kane) long term, all I'm saying is that it wouldn't shock me if he came down on the less expensive side of that divide. It wouldn't shock me if he didn't, but you know...just my guess.

It's an interesting situation, because the first guy that signs pretty much defines the expectation for the other two, or at least, the spread.. so perhaps that's the dubas strategy for now.. instead of forcing the issue, wait for one guy to want it over with to focus on the upcoming season, and then the other two deals close quickly.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

But, like I just said, Marner strikes me as the guy who's maybe most likely to sign for slightly below his best comps. If we figure the range on his deal is somewhere between 7 million(Pastrnak's % roughly) and 9 million(Kane) long term, all I'm saying is that it wouldn't shock me if he came down on the less expensive side of that divide. It wouldn't shock me if he didn't, but you know...just my guess.

It's an interesting situation, because the first guy that signs pretty much defines the expectation for the other two, or at least, the spread.. so perhaps that's the dubas strategy for now.. instead of forcing the issue, wait for one guy to want it over with to focus on the upcoming season, and then the other two deals close quickly.

Except, Nylander needs a contract before the season starts, Mitch and Auston could wait it out another year. 

 

[Zee]

Today is July 16th.  I predict Wee Willy Nylander will be signed by July 31 at the latest.

 

[Kaberle15]

Today is July 16th.  I predict Wee Willy Nylander will be signed by July 31 at the latest.

To a Bridge deal (2-3 years) until they have some cap relief or to an 8 year extension ?

I think that one key thing that might work very well in favor of the Leafs and the so called hometown discount is that they can sign contracts structured as the Tavares one, low on salary, huge on SB. That way they are covered if a lockout happen.

they do have 14,741,667.00 in cap space (as of today) + 5.3 mi in the Horton's deal.

I don't think that is enough to lock all 3 for 8 years this summer. Someone is getting a bridge deal, and i do think it is Nylander.

 

[Frank E]

Today is July 16th.  I predict Wee Willy Nylander will be signed by July 31 at the latest.

To a Bridge deal (2-3 years) until they have some cap relief or to an 8 year extension ?

I think that one key thing that might work very well in favor of the Leafs and the so called hometown discount is that they can sign contracts structured as the Tavares one, low on salary, huge on SB. That way they are covered if a lockout happen.

they do have 14,741,667.00 in cap space (as of today) + 5.3 mi in the Horton's deal.

I don't think that is enough to lock all 3 for 8 years this summer. Someone is getting a bridge deal, and i do think it is Nylander.

Marner and Matthews have deals for this year, and that don't expire until next summer.  They can sign new deals today, but they won't take effect until next year, and associated cap hits aren't relevant until the season they take effect.

 

[Kaberle15]

Marner and Matthews have deals for this year, and that don't expire until next summer.  They can sign new deals today, but they won't take effect until next year, and associated cap hits aren't relevant until the season they take effect.

I know that, and next year they will have Hansey off and Gardiner as an UFA that is -7Mi off the books, however, those 2 spots should be filled.

My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?

 

[Guilt Trip]

My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?

Maybe but I doubt it. Def not 22.

 

[Bates]

$6, $7, and $11 million.

 

[Kin]

$6, $7, and $11 million.

Best of luck on those first two.

 

[Bill_Berg]

$7.5, $8.5, $10.5.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?

Maybe but I doubt it. Def not 22.

Yeah, that's way too optimistic. If they came under 27M I'd be pleasantly suprised

 

[Coco-puffs]

My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?

Maybe but I doubt it. Def not 22.

Yeah, that's way too optimistic. If they came under 27M I'd be pleasantly suprised

I don't believe Nylander has a case to be paid more than 7M on his next deal and will most likely come in slightly under that (6.5 to 6.75) 

Matthews, if he signs this off-season seems to be a no-brainer at 11M  (between Eichel and McDavid... and the same as Tavares).  If he waits until after the upcoming season, things can change based on his performance- so the question is, is his camp in the lets wait until after this season to sign mode, or lets get it done now mode?

Anyways, lets assume 11M.... So we're at 18M.

So you think Marner is going to command 9M+?  If he were to sign before this season starts he's not getting much more than Nylander.  He could go out and have a huge campaign and that will definitely push his number up.  At the same time, I'd be really surprised if Marner wasn't the guy out of these three that signs the most team-friendly deal.  Not EXPECTING IT, but wouldn't be surprised.

Anyways, the whole point of my statement was to say I believe you will be pleasantly surprised.  I'm expecting these three to come in around 25-27M- depending mostly on WHEN Matthews and Marner sign their extensions.

 

[cabber24]

I am hoping for no bridge deals, let's lock down this offensive core.

 

[Frank E]

My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?

Maybe but I doubt it. Def not 22.

Yeah, that's way too optimistic. If they came under 27M I'd be pleasantly suprised

I don't believe Nylander has a case to be paid more than 7M on his next deal and will most likely come in slightly under that (6.5 to 6.75) 

Matthews, if he signs this off-season seems to be a no-brainer at 11M  (between Eichel and McDavid... and the same as Tavares).  If he waits until after the upcoming season, things can change based on his performance- so the question is, is his camp in the lets wait until after this season to sign mode, or lets get it done now mode?

Anyways, lets assume 11M.... So we're at 18M.

So you think Marner is going to command 9M+?  If he were to sign before this season starts he's not getting much more than Nylander.  He could go out and have a huge campaign and that will definitely push his number up.  At the same time, I'd be really surprised if Marner wasn't the guy out of these three that signs the most team-friendly deal.  Not EXPECTING IT, but wouldn't be surprised.

Anyways, the whole point of my statement was to say I believe you will be pleasantly surprised.  I'm expecting these three to come in around 25-27M- depending mostly on WHEN Matthews and Marner sign their extensions.

Tell them they've got $25M AAV to work with between them, and lock them in a room until they come out with a consensus. 

 

[Kin]

Matthews, if he signs this off-season seems to be a no-brainer at 11M  (between Eichel and McDavid... and the same as Tavares).  If he waits until after the upcoming season, things can change based on his performance- so the question is, is his camp in the lets wait until after this season to sign mode, or lets get it done now mode?

Anyways, lets assume 11M.... So we're at 18M.

I think that's a pretty big assumption and it's kind of the crux of the whole matter. I think most Leafs fans would be thrilled with Matthews at 11M and I think that's a reasonable sign that he might not come that cheap. Put Matthews at 13 and Nylander at 7 and that 27 figure looks very optimistic.