Does the atmosphere at the ACC cost the Leafs?

[Corn Flake]

I've been to the ACC for a playoff game, OT nonetheless and the atmosphere was electric.

Absolutely. I have been to many (sooo long ago!!) and it gets insane loud in there, all game long.

Yes the crowd gets lulled to sleep in the middle of the game when the play slows to a crawl and the whistles are going all over the place, but when there is something to get noisy about, they do get noisy. 

I was there for the Islanders game last week and it was plenty noisy in the first and while things started to come unglued in the 2nd.. after that the fans just kind of shut down and gave up.  To be expected.

I wish they would get more creative with ways to get the crowd going instead of yelling at us to "MAKE SOME NOISE" every commercial break. The fans get most into things like showing replays of some of the bigger moments in Leafs history.. ie: Sundin scoring in OT, etc etc. and you can feel the spirit of everyone in the place climb. 

 

[The Red Polar Bear]

I wish they would get more creative with ways to get the crowd going instead of yelling at us to "MAKE SOME NOISE" every commercial break.

Oh I hate those things. If you give me something to cheer about (that is, the play on the ice), then I will cheer.  If you're telling me to make noise for the sake of making noise, forget it.

I'm at a hockey game to watch the hockey game, not make a ruckus.

 

[lc9]

By comparing them exclusively to the bottom feeders, I think what you've done is sort of magnified the baseline home-road advanatage that's going to apply to every team in the league which will look more pronounced because of just how dreadful a really terrible team is on the road.

Well, so what does this say about the leafs?  Why are they consistently performing at the same level, or worse in some cases, than teams that play better at home than the leafs do?  Why can't the leafs play as well at home as the poorer teams?

 

[lc9]

In the last 4 seasons, the Leafs are 25th out 30 in terms of percentage of points earned at home, this is for all teams over 4 seasons. 

Making the top 12 are:
NYI
Columbus
Carolina
Edmonton
Montreal

Here is the bottom 15:
New Jersey
Chicago
Phoenix
Detroit
Vancouver
Atlanta/Winnipeg
Buffalo
Colorado
Toronto
Pittsburgh
Los Angeles
NY Rangers
Philadelphia
Boston

All of the teams in the bottom 15 are teams that have had good success over the past 4 seasons sans Colorado, the Leafs and then Jets/Atlanta. 

Atlanta was notorious for having a lousy crowd, their first season in Winnipeg (out of the playoffs still) and they finish 23-13-5 at home.  The Leafs, over 4 seasons, have only been able to gain 53.1% of their earned points at home.  The Islanders are at 58.3% leading the way. 

The expectations for lousy teams is that they should earn a greater percentage of their points at home, compared to a good team who can earn points both on the road and at home.  Boston for instance, is ranked dead last for percentage of points earned at home with 50.2%, this is because they are really good and win where ever.  I would expect a lousy team to finish near the top, yet the leafs find themselves with teams that are winning organizations.  And the other team with them--Atlanta/Winnipeg--had a drastic change in home win % based on moving from Atlanta to Winnipeg. 

I think there is a crowd effect going on in Toronto.  Based on how they have played the last 4 seasons one would expect them to gain more points at home relative to the road, because that is what we see from lousy teams.  But with the leafs, that isn't the case. 

Based on how the Leafs have played on the road the last 4 seasons, they should be a better team than they have been at home during that same stretch. 

 

[Kin]

Well, so what does this say about the leafs?  Why are they consistently performing at the same level, or worse in some cases, than teams that play better at home than the leafs do?  Why can't the leafs play as well at home as the poorer teams?

Well, the obvious answer to the last question and feeding into why I think the way you've approached this is flawed, is that the Leafs are playing as well as the teams you've singled out at home. They're just also playing better on the road which is leading to them being a better team overall.

If there's one thing that your list of teams shows pretty conclusively it's that what separates the teams with the higher points winning percentage at home vs. the road can't be good crowds, unless you're of the belief that the worst teams in the league also have the best crowds.

 

[lc9]

Well, the obvious answer to the last question and feeding into why I think the way you've approached this is flawed, is that the Leafs are playing as well as the teams you've singled out at home. They're just also playing better on the road which is leading to them being a better team overall.

If there's one thing that your list of teams shows pretty conclusively it's that what separates the teams with the higher points winning percentage at home vs. the road can't be good crowds, unless you're of the belief that the worst teams in the league also have the best crowds.

My belief is that in general teams play better at home than on the road.  This seems pretty conclusive through all sports.  I attribute this to many factors: being comfortable, family/friends, maybe a little home cooking..things that typically benefit a team at home. 

Now, to the bold point.  The question wasn't whether other teams benefit from a home a crowd, the question was does the atmosphere at the ACC cost the leafs.  Based on the second set of data I posted, I would say yes.  Based on how the Leafs play on the road, relative to how other teams play on the road, the Leafs should be better at home. 

Note, the second set of data posted consists of all teams in the NHL over the last 4 years.

 

[Kin]

My belief is that in general teams play better at home than on the road.  This seems pretty conclusive through all sports.  I attribute this to many factors: being comfortable, family/friends, maybe a little home cooking..things that typically benefit a team at home.

I'd agree. 

Now, to the bold point.  The question wasn't whether other teams benefit from a home a crowd, the question was does the atmosphere at the ACC cost the leafs.  Based on the second set of data I posted, I would say yes.  Based on how the Leafs play on the road, relative to how other teams play on the road, the Leafs should be better at home. 

Although, as I said before, it's just as likely that the oddity there is that the Leafs are exceptionally good on the road which there's just as much anecdotal/argumentative evidence for.

Either way, I don't think you can just focus on the data and how it relates to the Leafs to prove a point and ignore what it says about the rest of the league. If the Leafs relatively low home-road winning % is attributable to the crowd then you have to explain for the Islanders. And the Avalanche. Otherwise, I think all that your data really tells us is that bad teams tend to have a higher points winning percentage at home although there are multiple exceptions without a common link.

 

[lc9]

Also, in the last 4 seasons, only Edmonton has finished with fewer home wins and fewer home points than the Leafs.  Edmonton and Toronto have been the worst home teams in the NHL for 4 seasons now.  They are 0-2 to start at the ACC this year. 

 

[lc9]

My belief is that in general teams play better at home than on the road.  This seems pretty conclusive through all sports.  I attribute this to many factors: being comfortable, family/friends, maybe a little home cooking..things that typically benefit a team at home.

I'd agree. 

Now, to the bold point.  The question wasn't whether other teams benefit from a home a crowd, the question was does the atmosphere at the ACC cost the leafs.  Based on the second set of data I posted, I would say yes.  Based on how the Leafs play on the road, relative to how other teams play on the road, the Leafs should be better at home. 

Although, as I said before, it's just as likely that the oddity there is that the Leafs are exceptionally good on the road which there's just as much anecdotal/argumentative evidence for.

Either way, I don't think you can just focus on the data and how it relates to the Leafs to prove a point and ignore what it says about the rest of the league. If the Leafs relatively low home-road winning % is attributable to the crowd then you have to explain for the Islanders. And the Avalanche. Otherwise, I think all that your data really tells us is that bad teams tend to have a higher points winning percentage at home although there are multiple exceptions without a common link.

I won't disagree with any of this.  All I can do is form an opinion.  My data is very much open to interpretation as there are many variables.

I guess, IMO, I have always thought that the docile and quick to boo crowd attributed, somewhat, to the Leafs lack luster performance at home.  I wouldn't really say this data supports it one way or the other, but it also doesn't disprove it.  It is all subjective, I just wanted to throw out more data and facts.  As I have gone through this I realized the limitations and that any conclusion I draw will still be subjective.

So there's that.

 

[nutman]

The leafs would pick it up at home if the fans got off there hands. it seems they need the lift. look at there home record in the last 10 games. shhhh dont tell nik I said this.  ;D

 

[Kin]

Also, in the last 4 seasons, only Edmonton has finished with fewer home wins and fewer home points than the Leafs.  Edmonton and Toronto have been the worst home teams in the NHL for 4 seasons now.  They are 0-2 to start at the ACC this year.

That's almost a perfect encapsulation of my point though. Edmonton is frequently cited as being one of the louder buildings in the league. I think the commonality there is just that both teams have stunk for those four years.

 

[Kin]

I guess, IMO, I have always thought that the docile and quick to boo crowd attributed, somewhat, to the Leafs lack luster performance at home.  I wouldn't really say this data supports it one way or the other, but it also doesn't disprove it.  It is all subjective, I just wanted to throw out more data and facts.  As I have gone through this I realized the limitations and that any conclusion I draw will still be subjective.

I understand and, for what it's worth, I do encourage the data-based opposing viewpoint. My problem is just that I think there's a strong sense of confirmation bias at work whenever I see the Leafs bad home-record attributed to the supposedly bad atmosphere at the ACC when, as this thread kind of shows, the atmosphere at the ACC is one that gets a lot of varying opinions. The 05-06 Leafs had a terrific home record and I don't think there's been a substantial change in atmosphere from then until now.

What the data could, I suppose, show is that these particular Maple Leafs have a hard time playing at home but even then I'd be quicker to attribute that to deficiencies with the players than the building.