Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1

[Kin]

They're (very) good third line numbers, but our top nine pretty much played 2nd line minutes across the board. So for a second liner, that's... lower half of average? I don't know where the thresholds are actually. Anyone have a breakdown by line?

There were roughly 200 or so players in the NHL last year who scored at a 15 goals/82 pace. That's where I got top 6th of the 90 or so players who would effectively be relegated to 3rd line status.

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/90484/2017/08/28/bourne-why-connor-browns-brain-is-his-most-valuable-asset-in-the-nhl/

Bourne on Brown:

This will sound a bit fanboy, but hear me out: If you're looking to buy a Leafs jersey outside the young Trio of Terror, Brown's would be a worthwhile choice.

That?s because he's a cerebral player who is always going to have value on your team. It?s so hard to explain the value of ?smart? to hockey fans because it?s so hard to see. But if you could group NHL players by raw attributes ? a team of the fastest players, a team of the strongest guys, a team of the smartest ? that latter group would pick the rest apart.

Brown isn?t the best skater, nor is he the biggest guy, and he doesn?t have the hardest shot. But when a guy knows how to get himself in the right offensive spots, he scores a lot of what are perceived as ?easy? goals. Anyone could finish that, you?d think, after he taps in a rolling puck on the back door.

 

[hockeyfan1]

(Via theathletic)

A quick glance at capfriendly.com at Brown?s cap comparable right wingers next season shows that no other player comes close to the 20 goals Brown scored last season, proving the value the Leafs get in the 2012 sixth-round pick.

Well, looking at the comparables, Brown's numbers are commendable with plenty of room for improvement.


https://capfriendly.com

https://capfriendly.com/players/connor-brown

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Everything aside, it is rather amusing that some feel Brown has 'peaked'. I get his value, and I understand that he may be a tradable asset but why would anyone assume that his first year numbers are his peak? Even if his shooting percentage was high and his line mate, half the time, was Matthews...shouldn't his play improve? Perhaps I'm wrong but is there a lot of players that peaked in their first season?

 

[wnc096]

Everything aside, it is rather amusing that some feel Brown has 'peaked'. I get his value, and I understand that he may be a tradable asset but why would anyone assume that his first year numbers are his peak? Even if his shooting percentage was high and his line mate, half the time, was Matthews...shouldn't his play improve? Perhaps I'm wrong but is there a lot of players that peaked in their first season?

Bill Muckalt comes to mind

 

[Kin]

Everything aside, it is rather amusing that some feel Brown has 'peaked'. I get his value, and I understand that he may be a tradable asset but why would anyone assume that his first year numbers are his peak? Even if his shooting percentage was high and his line mate, half the time, was Matthews...shouldn't his play improve? Perhaps I'm wrong but is there a lot of players that peaked in their first season?

Well, I'm not sure anyone has made the argument that Brown has "peaked" definitively. But I think what you might be referring to is the idea that there's a possibility his scoring numbers don't get all that much better(or even get worse) over the next few seasons. Which I feel can be boiled down into several simple points that have been gone over pretty thoroughly so far:

- His high shooting %
- His relatively high number of empty netters
- The possibility that he gets less or no time with the big 3
- That he may at some point during this contract(if not already) be relegated to the team's 4th line RW.

Now, even with all of the above, I'm not willing to say he's "peaked". He may improve other elements of his game and/or he might be in a similar offensive role due to injury or bad Babcock decisions or whatever.

But there is another point that maybe seems to be at the root of your question. You, and others, seem to look at Brown's numbers and focus on the fact that last year was, technically, his rookie season. Whereas I, and I think some others, look at his numbers and focus on the fact that it was his draft +5 year. He'll be almost 24 when next season starts. That is an age that's pretty close to where a lot of guys have their peak offensive years even if they become more complete players later on.

 

[herman]

If I had to categorize the way Brown plays in one word, it would be Anticipation.

As Bourne pointed out (and our group here recognized even last year when talking about him), Brown gets to the right spots on the ice and helps put it home. He's not the greatest passer himself, but if you get it to him, he'll more than likely make it count. It's pretty similar to the way Tyler Bozak finds soft coverage and quietly sneaks in for tap-ins.

On defense, Brown is able to translate his own offensive instincts into his coverage structure. It's most evident on the PK when he's on the forecheck. Watch the routes he takes and how the puck carrier reacts/panics. He appears to process location, momentum, positioning very, very quickly, and pounces on lackadaisical PPs because he baited and anticipated the play.

Stimson's current Passing Project numbers have him categorized as a Dependent at the moment, but I think with more data, Brown is more accurately a Shooter.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Everything aside, it is rather amusing that some feel Brown has 'peaked'. I get his value, and I understand that he may be a tradable asset but why would anyone assume that his first year numbers are his peak? Even if his shooting percentage was high and his line mate, half the time, was Matthews...shouldn't his play improve? Perhaps I'm wrong but is there a lot of players that peaked in their first season?

Well, I'm not sure anyone has made the argument that Brown has "peaked" definitively. But I think what you might be referring to is the idea that there's a possibility his scoring numbers don't get all that much better(or even get worse) over the next few seasons. Which I feel can be boiled down into several simple points that have been gone over pretty thoroughly so far:

- His high shooting %
- His relatively high number of empty netters
- The possibility that he gets less or no time with the big 3
- That he may at some point during this contract(if not already) be relegated to the team's 4th line RW.

Now, even with all of the above, I'm not willing to say he's "peaked". He may improve other elements of his game and/or he might be in a similar offensive role due to injury or bad Babcock decisions or whatever.

But there is another point that maybe seems to be at the root of your question. You, and others, seem to look at Brown's numbers and focus on the fact that last year was, technically, his rookie season. Whereas I, and I think some others, look at his numbers and focus on the fact that it was his draft +5 year. He'll be almost 24 when next season starts. That is an age that's pretty close to where a lot of guys have their peak offensive years even if they become more complete players later on.

I'm nitpicking here, but I like doing that with you because its fun....

Why would playing Brown in an offensive role be a bad Babcock decision?  Someone smart/dependable defensively on a scoring line is pretty useful.

 

[Kin]

I'm nitpicking here, but I like doing that with you because its fun....

Why would playing Brown in an offensive role be a bad Babcock decision?  Someone smart/dependable defensively on a scoring line is pretty useful.

Well, I was speaking hypothetically there. So a hypothetical reason why playing Brown in an offensive role would be a bad decision is if someone like Kapanen proves himself to be smart/dependable defensively and better offensively but Babcock goes with Brown anyway.

I think Babcock is, by and large, a good coach but I can't rule out the possibility that he might make bad decisions in the future.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm nitpicking here, but I like doing that with you because its fun....

Why would playing Brown in an offensive role be a bad Babcock decision?  Someone smart/dependable defensively on a scoring line is pretty useful.

Well, I was speaking hypothetically there. So a hypothetical reason why playing Brown in an offensive role would be a bad decision is if someone like Kapanen proves himself to be smart/dependable defensively and better offensively but Babcock goes with Brown anyway.

I think Babcock is, by and large, a good coach but I can't rule out the possibility that he might make bad decisions in the future.

I'll add a little more to that and say that playing someone smart/dependable defensively like Brown on a line with Matthews isn't a problem by itself. But if it's Matthews and Brown AND Hyman again, there's a problem.

 

[Kin]

I'll add a little more to that and say that playing someone smart/dependable defensively like Brown on a line with Matthews isn't a problem by itself. But if it's Matthews and Brown AND Hyman again, there's a problem.

Well, see, I figure that we probably won't see that. Because the way I see it the top 2 lines, at least without any trades will be:

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
JVR-Bozak-Marner

So then you'll have a third line of, I guess:

Komarov-Kadri-X

So, I mean, X can be Brown but I think on that third line you want to balance offense and defense and Komarov and Kadri are already solid defensive players. Brown isn't a bad choice but if you can add some offensive punch there and not lose much defensively then I think that's the smarter play than giving Kadri lesser offensive wingers.

Of course, this all kind of calls back how insane it is that this team hasn't really done anything with JVR and Bozak yet.

 

[L K]

I'll add a little more to that and say that playing someone smart/dependable defensively like Brown on a line with Matthews isn't a problem by itself. But if it's Matthews and Brown AND Hyman again, there's a problem.

Well, see, I figure that we probably won't see that. Because the way I see it the top 2 lines, at least without any trades will be:

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
JVR-Bozak-Marner

So then you'll have a third line of, I guess:

Komarov-Kadri-X

So, I mean, X can be Brown but I think on that third line you want to balance offense and defense and Komarov and Kadri are already solid defensive players. Brown isn't a bad choice but if you can add some offensive punch there and not lose much defensively then I think that's the smarter play than giving Kadri lesser offensive wingers.

Of course, this all kind of calls back how insane it is that this team hasn't really done anything with JVR and Bozak yet.

Obviously if you are using that 3rd line as a shut down group you probably prefer a guy like Hyman or Brown on it but I wouldn't mind seeing them use either Kapanen or Leivo with Kadri for a stretch.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Well, see, I figure that we probably won't see that. Because the way I see it the top 2 lines, at least without any trades will be:

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
JVR-Bozak-Marner

I thought that top line was a slam dunk too at first, but now I don't know. I think Babs is really going to want to keep Hyman there. We'll see. Even a guy like Mirtle seems to think that's the right call, at least to start.

 

[Kin]

I thought that top line was a slam dunk too at first, but now I don't know. I think Babs is really going to want to keep Hyman there. We'll see. Even a guy like Mirtle seems to think that's the right call, at least to start.

So then is the idea that Komarov plays 4th line RW? Or Martin does? Or Martin doesn't play?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I thought that top line was a slam dunk too at first, but now I don't know. I think Babs is really going to want to keep Hyman there. We'll see. Even a guy like Mirtle seems to think that's the right call, at least to start.

So then is the idea that Komarov plays 4th line RW? Or Martin does? Or Martin doesn't play?

Was just about to edit my post with what his best guess at the line-up was:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Brown
JVR-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Komarov

He said he doesn't see Hyman moving onto the 4th line, and like everyone figures a move is coming at some point (suggested Komarov gets dealt).

 

[Kin]

Was just about to edit my post with what his best guess at the line-up was:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Brown
JVR-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Komarov

He said he doesn't see Hyman moving onto the 4th line, and like everyone figures a move is coming at some point (suggested Komarov gets dealt).

Well, if you're going to deal someone it might as well be the guy with the least value.

Anyways, if the ultimate outcome is that Kapanen doesn't play and Martin does...well, I'm back to being comfortable saying that all manner of things might happen because Babcock makes weird decisions sometimes.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Anyways, if the ultimate outcome is that Kapanen doesn't play and Martin does...well, I'm back to being comfortable saying that all manner of things might happen because Babcock makes weird decisions sometimes.

It's really crazy that as things stand right now and barring an injury, Kapanen probably has a 0% chance of cracking the line-up out of training camp.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'll add a little more to that and say that playing someone smart/dependable defensively like Brown on a line with Matthews isn't a problem by itself. But if it's Matthews and Brown AND Hyman again, there's a problem.

Surely that experiment is done, right? I mean, if there's anyone other than JvR or Marleau playing on that line, there's an issue.

That being said, Matthews does play strong on the left side, so it's somewhat understandable if his left-winger is the weaker player. Which is why I can't imagine a line with Brown and Hyman.

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
JvR-Bozak-Marner
Marleau-Kadri-Brown
Komarov-Moore-Martin

Something like that? Maybe switch Hyman/Komarov? Marner/Brown?

edit: I just noticed this is identical to your lineups like half a page up. lol

 

[Frank E]

I'm sure I read this somewhere, but my understanding is guys like Hyman have the job of puck retrieval to keep Matthews out of the corners/physical areas where guys are more susceptible to injury/longer term wear and tear.

 

[herman]

It's really crazy that as things stand right now and barring an injury, Kapanen probably has a 0% chance of cracking the line-up out of training camp.

We were pretty concerned about how there would be no room for Brown, Hyman, Soshnikov, Marner last season. The Leafs did the right thing and blew a crater in the lineup, burying Laich, Michalek, Greening, etc. to make room for those three at the beginning of the season.

Hurdle's a bit higher this year as it makes no sense to bury JvR, Bozak, Komarov, but it also makes no sense to gift roster spots before Training Camp when their aim is to generate internal competition pressure. I'm expecting some moves (lots of teams still looking for depth at centre).