Ducks shopping Ryan

[maplesyrup]

Oh God, could you imagine Ryan for Krejci (RFA) + Hamilton (part of the Kessel deal) + some (if necessary.)  That's about as good as the Leafs cou'd do I think  :-\ ... I'd be looking for the nearest window to jump out of.

 

[Kin]

We're quibbling about the difference between "miles apart" and "pretty important difference."  Whatever.

Well, yeah, that's why I said that I wasn't going to be dwelling in your definition of "miles". That is a very important statistical difference between the two players and that should be established.

But no one has answered my query about Ryan vs Grabs defensively, and in terms of bringing effort every night. 

I think that's because, realistically, nobody here is going to be able to offer much re: Ryan as a defensive player because none of us watch the Ducks too often. Numbers wise, Ryan's been a + player every year of his career and saw some limited SH time last year(marginally more than Grabo).

 

[ZBBM]

We're quibbling about the difference between "miles apart" and "pretty important difference."  Whatever.

Well, yeah, that's why I said that I wasn't going to be dwelling in your definition of "miles". That is a very important statistical difference between the two players and that should be established.

But no one has answered my query about Ryan vs Grabs defensively, and in terms of bringing effort every night. 

I think that's because, realistically, nobody here is going to be able to offer much re: Ryan as a defensive player because none of us watch the Ducks too often. Numbers wise, Ryan's been a + player every year of his career and saw some limited SH time last year(marginally more than Grabo).

OK then.  I thought I had read something calling into question his willingness to play on both sides of the rink.  That concerns me.

 

[Derk]

I started a post about this yesterday, but when I got around to looking at the players that could possibly be involved, I decided to put it aside (and get back to work ).

However, based on what was posted in the first few pages of this thread, it seems like this is a budget reducing issue for Anaheim rather than a cap issue, meaning they want to dump as much real $$ as possible, while taking back as little as possible, meaning young players / prospects / picks.

However, as was also posted earlier, the Leafs are tapped out capwise right now (according to Capgeek they only have LTIR monies left to them, 1.325 M or so), so the deal can't just be straight prospects for Ryan - Leafs will need to send SOME salary back to Anaheim, or make another move to dump salary. In its simplest terms, they need to move out at least Ryan's salary worth to accept his contract (I understand that it is probably more complicated than that, but it is a good place to start).

They also have the option to take back a contract that can be buried in the minors, which would be an advantage over teams like Carolina - but would they even be allowed to do this if it put them well over the cap (not sure what the rules are with respect to this - someone like Blake WOULD count against the cap after the trade was made until such a time as he could be sent to the minors).

Ryan in (5.1M cap hit / 5.5M salary)
Other contract in (Blake? 4M cap hit / 3M salary, if possible)

Out - 5.1M cap value (to make the deal work for the Leafs - note Kadri is in the minors, so his 1.7M doesn't count towards the current cap so the Leafs would still need to add cap value if he was part of the deal)

Sorry for the long post. Just some thoughts to try and help with the possibilities. Like others have opined, I think Ryan would probably be sent elsewhere - this is a little too "public" for Burke's usual deals.

 

[bustaheims]

But no one has answered my query about Ryan vs Grabs defensively, and in terms of bringing effort every night.  Aren't there concerns about Ryan in those respects?  Because if there is my whole point is that I wouldn't be in a rush to trade a more complete player (Grabs) for the extra offense (Ryan).  Especially on a team whose forwards have been defensively suspect for years.

While I can't say much from my limited viewings of him, I can't recall anyone raising concerns about Ryan's defensive game. While I don't imagine he provides Selke quality defence (and, neither does Grabovski, I'd say), my guess is his defensive play is as reasonable as most quality forwards in the this league.

 

[cw]

I don't know about you, but I consider 14 goals and 16 points to be pretty significant differences.

Yeah, that's just where I was coming from. I mean, if you want to flip it, would anyone argue that there wasn't a pretty important difference between a forward scoring 22 goals and 53 points and a forward scoring 8 goals and 37 points? Because that's the same gap.

We're quibbling about the difference between "miles apart" and "pretty important difference."  Whatever.

But no one has answered my query about Ryan vs Grabs defensively, and in terms of bringing effort every night.  Aren't there concerns about Ryan in those respects?  Because if there is my whole point is that I wouldn't be in a rush to trade a more complete player (Grabs) for the extra offense (Ryan).  Especially on a team whose forwards have been defensively suspect for years.

I think some of the gap closes between the two because Grabovski is a center - which to me, are simply tougher to find and acquire. Defence and points are other legit considerations.

Having said that, on the trade market, I suspect nearly every team in the league would offer more than Grabovski straight up for Ryan. I think we saw close to Grabovski's high side last season. I'm not sure Ryan has hit his yet though he's had some better linemates than Grabbo.

This is a pretty good link to the Ryan rumours banter:
spectorshockey
Latest Bobby Ryan Trade Rumors ? November 30, 2011.]
and
Bobby Ryan Trade Rumors

Lebrun says:
The asking price in any Ryan deal would likely revolve around a young defenseman, a young forward and possibly a high draft pick -- in other words, a big package involving two to three pieces.

In open bidding on the trade market, that's probably not far off.

 

[bustaheims]

However, as was also posted earlier, the Leafs are tapped out capwise right now (according to Capgeek they only have LTIR monies left to them, 1.325 M or so), so the deal can't just be straight prospects for Ryan - Leafs will need to send SOME salary back to Anaheim, or make another move to dump salary. In its simplest terms, they need to move out at least Ryan's salary worth to accept his contract (I understand that it is probably more complicated than that, but it is a good place to start).

Part of this issue will be solved when the Leafs start to get healthy again. Once the Leafs start to get their roster back down to 23 guys instead of the 28 they have right now. With Reimer back this week, Armstrong close to a return, Grabovski healthy, etc, the likes of Scrivens, Frattin and Colborne could be heading back to the Marlies in the next 7-10 days, freeing up the equivalent of $3M cap space - and, add in the current LTIR space the Leafs have to work with from Komisarek and, potentially, Lombardi's injuries, and there's enough cap space to make it work for now.

 

[Derk]

However, as was also posted earlier, the Leafs are tapped out capwise right now (according to Capgeek they only have LTIR monies left to them, 1.325 M or so), so the deal can't just be straight prospects for Ryan - Leafs will need to send SOME salary back to Anaheim, or make another move to dump salary. In its simplest terms, they need to move out at least Ryan's salary worth to accept his contract (I understand that it is probably more complicated than that, but it is a good place to start).

Part of this issue will be solved when the Leafs start to get healthy again. Once the Leafs start to get their roster back down to 23 guys instead of the 28 they have right now. With Reimer back this week, Armstrong close to a return, Grabovski healthy, etc, the likes of Scrivens, Frattin and Colborne could be heading back to the Marlies in the next 7-10 days, freeing up the equivalent of $3M cap space - and, add in the current LTIR space the Leafs have to work with from Komisarek and, potentially, Lombardi's injuries, and there's enough cap space to make it work for now.

That was part of my problem. There were too many numbers to look at and a project deadline that was looming at the same time! It'd be nice if this happens, but again seems a little too public for BB.

 

[cw]

However, as was also posted earlier, the Leafs are tapped out capwise right now (according to Capgeek they only have LTIR monies left to them, 1.325 M or so), so the deal can't just be straight prospects for Ryan - Leafs will need to send SOME salary back to Anaheim, or make another move to dump salary. In its simplest terms, they need to move out at least Ryan's salary worth to accept his contract (I understand that it is probably more complicated than that, but it is a good place to start).

Part of this issue will be solved when the Leafs start to get healthy again. Once the Leafs start to get their roster back down to 23 guys instead of the 28 they have right now. With Reimer back this week, Armstrong close to a return, Grabovski healthy, etc, the likes of Scrivens, Frattin and Colborne could be heading back to the Marlies in the next 7-10 days, freeing up the equivalent of $3M cap space - and, add in the current LTIR space the Leafs have to work with from Komisarek and, potentially, Lombardi's injuries, and there's enough cap space to make it work for now.

That was part of my problem. There were too many numbers to look at and a project deadline that was looming at the same time! It'd be nice if this happens, but again seems a little too public for BB.

If everyone was healthy (Komisarek back and the Leafs 7 dmen were as they were to start the season) and Frattin (because he's a winger like Ryan but who would not have to go through waivers) & Rosehill (lowest salary on the team for worst case) were the guys sent down to make room, for the healthy players and Ryan, the team would need to free up roughly $1.5 mil in cap space. (sorry for the ugly sentence)

But that would assume no NHL roster player that would free up cap space would go the other way for Ryan - which I suspect is highly unlikely.

Like Busta, I do not see a serious cap space problem this season if they get Ryan. Next season, when they'd look to resign Grabbo, Liles, Kulemin, Fransin, Gustavsson and a few others while trying to upgrade the team, Ryan's contract might force some tougher choices.

For Bob Murray, when I look at Perry and Getzlaf becoming UFAs in 2013, how he would feel about his chances at resigning them would have to factor heavily into what he would do now in his current predicament. This moment or any time from now could be a very good time to move either of those two guys if he doesn't think he can resign them.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

However, as was also posted earlier, the Leafs are tapped out capwise right now (according to Capgeek they only have LTIR monies left to them, 1.325 M or so), so the deal can't just be straight prospects for Ryan - Leafs will need to send SOME salary back to Anaheim, or make another move to dump salary. In its simplest terms, they need to move out at least Ryan's salary worth to accept his contract (I understand that it is probably more complicated than that, but it is a good place to start).

Part of this issue will be solved when the Leafs start to get healthy again. Once the Leafs start to get their roster back down to 23 guys instead of the 28 they have right now. With Reimer back this week, Armstrong close to a return, Grabovski healthy, etc, the likes of Scrivens, Frattin and Colborne could be heading back to the Marlies in the next 7-10 days, freeing up the equivalent of $3M cap space - and, add in the current LTIR space the Leafs have to work with from Komisarek and, potentially, Lombardi's injuries, and there's enough cap space to make it work for now.

Plus, there's always other ways to make things happen.  If Anaheim didn't want to take appreciable salary back and furthermore the Leafs needed to clear some room, there's always the possibility of making a salary-motivated trade with another team to clear cap space.  Not sure who you'd give up, and/or at what price for making the deal, but it's still a viable means of enabling a Toronto-Anaheim deal.

 

[Tigger]

If the Leafs are willing to take Blake back in the deal, would that substantially change the player package going the other way?

IE, if the deal was say Kulemin Kadri and a 1st without Blake ( for argument ) would that turn the 1st into a 2nd or replace Kadri with Ross or D'Amigo with him?

I'm not asking for/about anything definitive just impressions on what getting rid of that salary might really be worth to the Ducks.

 

[Erndog]

If the Leafs are willing to take Blake back in the deal, would that substantially change the player package going the other way?

IE, if the deal was say Kulemin Kadri and a 1st without Blake ( for argument ) would that turn the 1st into a 2nd or replace Kadri with Ross or D'Amigo with him?

I'm not asking for/about anything definitive just impressions on what getting rid of that salary might really be worth to the Ducks.

I think that salary may be just a cost of doing business.  Sort of like, "You want Bobby?  Be prepared to pony up a few young assets AND take back some money."  I don't think it changes things substantially... they may give back a later pick like a 3rd or 4th or something along with Bobby but the principal ~3 young assets stay unchanged.

 

[Redleaf]

Personally, I think the best way this goes down is....

Aulie/Franson-Kadri-2nd

But of course it seldom works out best case scenario.

 

[Tigger]

If the Leafs are willing to take Blake back in the deal, would that substantially change the player package going the other way?

IE, if the deal was say Kulemin Kadri and a 1st without Blake ( for argument ) would that turn the 1st into a 2nd or replace Kadri with Ross or D'Amigo with him?

I'm not asking for/about anything definitive just impressions on what getting rid of that salary might really be worth to the Ducks.

I think that salary may be just a cost of doing business.  Sort of like, "You want Bobby?  Be prepared to pony up a few young assets AND take back some money."  I don't think it changes things substantially... they may give back a later pick like a 3rd or 4th or something along with Bobby but the principal ~3 young assets stay unchanged.

Fair enough, though I also wonder, if that's the cost of doing business does that put a team like Toronto to the head of the pack or near to it with a team like the Rangers? I don't see a lot of other teams with that kind financial clout.

 

[maplesyrup]

Personally, I think the best way this goes down is....

Aulie/Franson-Kadri-2nd

But of course it seldom works out best case scenario.

Compare that to say Krejci (Dreger belives Anaheim would prefer a center and he's a RFA.) and say, Hamilton (a fair bit more upside than either of Aulie or Franson.) I like Boston's package better and it's a deal that frankly, I think makes sense for both teams.  I really don't think your proposal is competitive enough. - Just me.

 

[Tigger]

Personally, I think the best way this goes down is....

Aulie/Franson-Kadri-2nd

But of course it seldom works out best case scenario.

Compare that to say Krejci (Dreger belives Anaheim would prefer a center and he's a RFA.) and say, Hamilton (a fair bit more upside than either of Aulie or Franson.) I like Boston's package better and it's a deal that frankly, I think makes sense for both teams.  I really don't think your proposal is competitive enough. - Just me.

This is where I wonder again about the effect of a Blake on the decision ( not that there's a definitive reason to think he's a make or break part of it ) does Boston have the ability/willingness to include him coming back in that deal?

 

[cw]

If the Leafs are willing to take Blake back in the deal, would that substantially change the player package going the other way?

IE, if the deal was say Kulemin Kadri and a 1st without Blake ( for argument ) would that turn the 1st into a 2nd or replace Kadri with Ross or D'Amigo with him?

I'm not asking for/about anything definitive just impressions on what getting rid of that salary might really be worth to the Ducks.

I think that salary may be just a cost of doing business.  Sort of like, "You want Bobby?  Be prepared to pony up a few young assets AND take back some money."  I don't think it changes things substantially... they may give back a later pick like a 3rd or 4th or something along with Bobby but the principal ~3 young assets stay unchanged.

I think money is quite important to Anaheim. In spite of Leafs management denials on the Lupul deal, eating his contract was big for the Ducks  - just like eating Giguere's contract was a money win for the Ducks.

29 other teams might or probably have young assets they might throw at the Ducks to get Ryan. But not all 29 other teams (in fact probably few in this economy) can eat salary like the Leafs can.

Rangers could but they have real cap space problems trying to fit Ryan. Flyers could but ditto finding cap space. And that's problematic because Anaheim can't take all the cap space back. That doesn't stop them from eating Blake's contract or from dumping salary to a third party so they wouldn't be out of it - it's just harder to do

For the Leafs to be able to eat Blake's contract (as an example) for the Ducks is a pretty decent dealbreaker for a number of other NHL teams who cannot afford that. To such an extent, the Ducks might well demand less of the Leafs in young assets to make the deal.

 

[maplesyrup]

Personally, I think the best way this goes down is....

Aulie/Franson-Kadri-2nd

But of course it seldom works out best case scenario.

Compare that to say Krejci (Dreger belives Anaheim would prefer a center and he's a RFA.) and say, Hamilton (a fair bit more upside than either of Aulie or Franson.) I like Boston's package better and it's a deal that frankly, I think makes sense for both teams.  I really don't think your proposal is competitive enough. - Just me.

This where I wonder again about the effect of a Blake on the decision ( again, not that there's a definitive reason to think he's a make or break part of it ), does Boston have the ability/willingness to include him coming back in that deal?

Millions out of someone's pocket could be a big factor for sure.

 

[Sudafederov]

Lots of proposals in this thread involving Blake.

Blake is currently injured if I'm not mistaken and therefore cannot be traded right now. 

Should a trade happen involving Blake, you're looking at January at the earliest.

 

[Tigger]

Lots of proposals in this thread involving Blake.

Blake is currently injured if I'm not mistaken and therefore cannot be traded right now. 

Should a trade happen involving Blake, you're looking at January at the earliest.

I thought he could if he agreed to it?