Finding top four d-man

[herman]

Roman Polak over his career:

Season		Team		GP		CF%		GF%		PDO
20072008		STL		6		45.63		60		104.87
20082009		STL		69		47.25		42.68		97.56
20092010		STL		78		49.51		52.43		100.93
20102011		STL		55		49.35		48.1		99.7
20112012		STL		77		50.12		50		99.05
20122013		STL		48		49.71		43.75		97.33
20132014		STL		72		49.34		44.93		98.73
20142015		TOR		56		45.07		34.18		95.98
20152016		S.J/TOR		79		49.85		50		100.38
20162017		TOR		67		47.42		55.56		102.05

Which 5v5 stat gives you the most consistent picture of the player?

He's having a miracle season and it was the peak time to cash in on him (again).

 

[Coco-puffs]

Polak generally causes a lot of the PKs too.

Our bottom five in penalty differential:
Martin -22
Polak -21
Hunwick -19
Soshnikov -15
Gauthier -10

You shouldn't use penalty differential alone if you are talking about who puts us on the PK.  Nazem Kadri is notably absent from that list and he's taken 13 more penalties than Polak.  Marner has taken the same amount of minor penalties as Polak this year.  Carrick, Zaitsev, and JvR also have almost as many penalties as Polak.  While the draw much more, it doesn't mean Polak disproportionately puts us on the PK compared to his teammates- especially considering the style of player he is.

 

[Coco-puffs]

He's having a miracle season and it was the peak time to cash in on him (again).

I wholeheartedly disagree with this.  You're telling me Frankie Corrado or Alexei Marchenko would have had better results than Polak since the trade deadline?  Without those results, we aren't in a playoff spot today.

And Polak had very little value if you ask me.  His warts were exposed in the playoffs last year and despite his luck this year, everyone is aware of his limitations.  I'd much rather make the playoffs this year than get a 2nd round pick for him at the deadline (and he wouldn't have gotten that much IMO)

 

[herman]

He's having a miracle season and it was the peak time to cash in on him (again).

I wholeheartedly disagree with this.  You're telling me Frankie Corrado or Alexei Marchenko would have had better results than Polak since the trade deadline?  Without those results, we aren't in a playoff spot today.

And Polak had very little value if you ask me.  His warts were exposed in the playoffs last year and despite his luck this year, everyone is aware of his limitations.  I'd much rather make the playoffs this year than get a 2nd round pick for him at the deadline (and he wouldn't have gotten that much IMO)

If Corrado had more than 1 or 2 games to round into form, yeah. Polak's value is in mostly not losing. Corrado and Marchenko actually drive play, and if they were given the rope Polak has been given I doubt we would be having this discussion.

 

[Coco-puffs]

He's having a miracle season and it was the peak time to cash in on him (again).

I wholeheartedly disagree with this.  You're telling me Frankie Corrado or Alexei Marchenko would have had better results than Polak since the trade deadline?  Without those results, we aren't in a playoff spot today.

And Polak had very little value if you ask me.  His warts were exposed in the playoffs last year and despite his luck this year, everyone is aware of his limitations.  I'd much rather make the playoffs this year than get a 2nd round pick for him at the deadline (and he wouldn't have gotten that much IMO)

If Corrado had more than 1 or 2 games to round into form, yeah. Polak's value is in mostly not losing. Corrado and Marchenko actually drive play, and if they were given the rope Polak has been given I doubt we would be having this discussion.

Yup, this team really struggles to drive play. They have no problems keeping the puck out of their own net.  So let's trade away the guy who barely gets scored on to play a guy who's had as many goals scored against him in the last month despite 40% of the ice time or a guy who leaked goals at 3.34 GA60 last season with us (highest on the team by a large margin).

 

[Kin]

It's a heck of a thing for Polak to both have no real value and also be the reason the team's going to make the playoffs.

 

[mr grieves]

Is any of the above meant to indicate that they've found their top-four D-man in... Roman Polak?

 

[herman]

Polak's marketable skill is largely a run of unsustainable luck and being a real good pro. We have seen GMs pay for it regularly, especially for playoff drives.

I think the better long term play would have been to actually assess internal assets during the season so that we could make more informed moves. It's the core that's important to success; if we are relying on fringe vets to make it to the playoffs, meh.

 

[bustaheims]

Yup, this team really struggles to drive play. They have no problems keeping the puck out of their own net.  So let's trade away the guy who barely gets scored on to play a guy who's had as many goals scored against him in the last month despite 40% of the ice time or a guy who leaked goals at 3.34 GA60 last season with us (highest on the team by a large margin).

You keep bringing this up, but, really, considering the quality of competition Polak is facing at even strength, it's really not all that impressive. 5-on-5, he's usually out there against 3rd and 4th liners. He doesn't get scored on much, because he mostly plays against guys that don't score much. He's getting scored on at roughly the rate you'd expect 3rd and 4th liners to score - especially considering the quality of goaltending the Leafs now have. So, yay, he's ordinary? I think we can strive for better than that.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Listen everyone, I get it. Being happy with Polak's performance this year is unpopular.  It goes against the underlying analytics and he's frustrating to watch too because Polak just smashes everything including the puck off the glass and people from behind.  I don't want the team to re-sign him for those very reasons.

But everyone's disdain for the player is glossing over the fact that since New Year's Day he's performed well statistically at his main job- helping keep the puck out of the net when he's on the ice against lower scoring 3rd or 4th lines.  To the tune of 1.48 GA60. 

Since the trade deadline that number is 0.73 GA60.  In both cases, that's much better than the average GF60 of 3rd and 4th liners. 

Is any of the above meant to indicate that they've found their top-four D-man in... Roman Polak?

Oh god no.  That's not even remotely what I've been trying to say.  I don't want him as our sixth defence man next year- nevermind in our top 4. 



On the season he's at 1.71 GA60, which is still better than average for a player seeing sheltered minutes. 

 

[PrestigeWorldwide]

I don't get all the Polak hate. He leads the Leafs in PK TOI/GM. The Leafs have a top 10 penalty kill this year. He hits, blocks shots, he's not lost in his own end. He's a bottom pairing defenceman.

I think there is a reason he was a regular on a team who made it to the Stanley Cup Finals last year.

I'd be fine with him coming back next year.

I actually like Polak and would like to see the Leafs hang on to him for next year, he seems tough to play against which I like.  Seeing as I live in the San Jose area though, last year I went to most Sharks playoff games and in the Finals against Pittsburgh, Polak's lack of speed was truly exposed.  He got just blown away by the Pens forwards so many times that I felt embarrassed for him.  In my opinion, he was the catalyst to get the Sharks org to focus on getting faster this year which they have attempted by picking up Danes Mikkel Boedker and Jannik Hansen.

 

[Kin]

But everyone's disdain for the player is glossing over the fact that since New Year's Day he's performed well statistically at his main job- helping keep the puck out of the net when he's on the ice against lower scoring 3rd or 4th lines.  To the tune of 1.48 GA60. 

Since the trade deadline that number is 0.73 GA60.  In both cases, that's much better than the average GF60 of 3rd and 4th liners. 

I think what you're missing is that most people don't agree that Polak's main job is to perform well in one particular and somewhat suspect statistical measurement vs. the general idea of helping the team win hockey games.

 

[Coco-puffs]

But everyone's disdain for the player is glossing over the fact that since New Year's Day he's performed well statistically at his main job- helping keep the puck out of the net when he's on the ice against lower scoring 3rd or 4th lines.  To the tune of 1.48 GA60. 

Since the trade deadline that number is 0.73 GA60.  In both cases, that's much better than the average GF60 of 3rd and 4th liners. 

I think what you're missing is that most people don't agree that Polak's main job is to perform well in one particular and somewhat suspect statistical measurement vs. the general idea of helping the team win hockey games.

I'm not missing that point at all.  While I may only be pointing to that statistical measure- which btw, isn't suspect- its a measurement of the goals scored against based on ice-time.  The only thing it isn't is PREDICTIVE.  I'm not using it in a predictive fashion- I'm using it to discuss the impact of having had him on the ice during our playoff drive.  I'm not using it to tell anyone we should re-sign him next year because I expect regression based on the analytics that point to expected regression.

The main point I'm making is when he's been on the ice, they've outscored their opposition which DOES tell us he's helping the team win:

since Feb 1st:  13 GF, 5 GA 

Prior to Feb 1st he was even on the season (23 GF, 23 GA). 

Herman's point about taking a fair amount of penalties and drawing none all season is valid.  He's also helped kill alot of penalties others have taken, to the tune of better than average GA60 on the PK as well.  I think that washes out. 

 

[Bullfrog]

You keep bringing this up, but, really, considering the quality of competition Polak is facing at even strength, it's really not all that impressive. 5-on-5, he's usually out there against 3rd and 4th liners. He doesn't get scored on much, because he mostly plays against guys that don't score much. He's getting scored on at roughly the rate you'd expect 3rd and 4th liners to score - especially considering the quality of goaltending the Leafs now have. So, yay, he's ordinary? I think we can strive for better than that.

Isn't ordinary the expected standard for a 6th defenseman?

 

[Frank E]

You keep bringing this up, but, really, considering the quality of competition Polak is facing at even strength, it's really not all that impressive. 5-on-5, he's usually out there against 3rd and 4th liners. He doesn't get scored on much, because he mostly plays against guys that don't score much. He's getting scored on at roughly the rate you'd expect 3rd and 4th liners to score - especially considering the quality of goaltending the Leafs now have. So, yay, he's ordinary? I think we can strive for better than that.

Isn't ordinary the expected standard for a 6th defenseman?

Salary cap implications usually force a low-cost option on those low minute pairings, right?

 

[Peter D.]

I'd personally make a run at Shattenkirk.  But I know I'll be quite alone in that thinking.

 

[Bullfrog]

Isn't ordinary the expected standard for a 6th defenseman?

Salary cap implications usually force a low-cost option on those low minute pairings, right?

I feel as though people will perpetually complain about 4th liners and 6th defensemen. I mean, they're not above criticism, but the expectations should be lower. My criticism, and I think I share this with Busta, is more the type of players that put in these positions.

 

[herman]

I'd personally make a run at Shattenkirk.  But I know I'll be quite alone in that thinking.

I'd say you take the same kind of run at Shattenkirk (or any premiere free agent) as we did with Stamkos. Pick a reasonable, sustainable term and cap hit: if Shattenkirk bites, yay! If not, whatevs.

It's getting into bidding wars over players with no growth potential that bugs me.

 

[Kin]

I'm not missing that point at all.  While I may only be pointing to that statistical measure- which btw, isn't suspect- its a measurement of the goals scored against based on ice-time.

Right and +/-, which I don't think anyone takes particularly seriously, is just a measurement of goals for when a player is on the ice - goals against. Goals against per 60, GF%....they all have some of the same inherent problems and biases that +/- has. It's not just that it isn't predictive, it also isn't especially indicative of individual play.

 

[Kin]

You keep bringing this up, but, really, considering the quality of competition Polak is facing at even strength, it's really not all that impressive. 5-on-5, he's usually out there against 3rd and 4th liners. He doesn't get scored on much, because he mostly plays against guys that don't score much. He's getting scored on at roughly the rate you'd expect 3rd and 4th liners to score - especially considering the quality of goaltending the Leafs now have. So, yay, he's ordinary? I think we can strive for better than that.

Isn't ordinary the expected standard for a 6th defenseman?

I think even within the context of 3rd pairing defensemen and 4th line forwards there's good, ordinary and not so good.