Flames @ Leafs - Dec. 9th, 7:30pm - TSN4, TSN 1050

[herman]

That's true, but, like last season, you can't rely on your goalie to bail you out as much as the Leafs have of late. They're still counting on a number of unsustainable trends to win, and that's certainly nothing to be impressed by.

I know Bernier's been fantastic the past 2 games, but prior to that he's probably had more human games this season than all of last season. And I think we can all agree that Kessel, despite having a ton of points, has yet to really look like his best self this season. So I think it's encouraging that we are where we are despite our two MVPs from last year reaching their plateaus.

Yes, the team is still a mess defensively and likely won't go anywhere even if they make the playoffs, but I do see improvements in their play. Mainly because of the additions of Komarov/Santorelli/Winnik, the presence of a 4th line, and the improved play/role of Holland. The increased depth that this offseason brought is definitely paying dividends.

i guess i'd have to go look at the stats in the cujo era...but i don't know..i remember the leafs being fairly consistently outshot then too..especially when they had the lead...

Even if that's true though, isn't that a perfect example of why it should concern people? Those Leafs were better than these Leafs but those Leafs frequently got knocked out of the playoffs when they ran into a team who could match their goaltending or when the goalie had an off series. I mean...who is the best goalie that the Cujo or Belfour era Leafs won a series against? Patrick Lalime? Chris Osgood? Vanbiesbrouck?

I agree with all these points.

We're getting better, but it's not good enough to have long term, player-independent success the way Detroit seems to. The next few years will be telling with the new focus on puck possession play and improvements to player development programs.

 

[bustaheims]

I know Bernier's been fantastic the past 2 games, but prior to that he's probably had more human games this season than all of last season. And I think we can all agree that Kessel, despite having a ton of points, has yet to really look like his best self this season. So I think it's encouraging that we are where we are despite our two MVPs from last year reaching their plateaus.

I felt the same way about Bernier until I took a look at his numbers recently. In his last 11 starts, he's posted a Sv% of at least .946 on 6 occasions, and has only been .921 3 times (which, not surprisingly, were all Leaf losses). He seemed more "human" earlier in the season, and, yea, he's still allowing more weak goals that he did last season, but, he's still been a high volume of shots and putting up excellent numbers most of the time.

And, sure, the top line hasn't been producing of late, but, the team has run with a shooting percentage of 14% in their recent run. That's unsustainable, even if Kessel and Co. get back to scoring at the rate we've become accustomed to. I also imagine the 2nd period dominance we've been seeing is going to regress a little.

Are there improvements? Sure. It's pretty obvious there are. Are there still significant underlying issues? Absolutely. Just look at the 3rd periods over the past couple games, as well as a number of others throughout this stretch. Look at some of the possession numbers, too. Things are going to cool off, and, it's not going to be pretty.

 

[Redleaf]

That's true, but, like last season, you can't rely on your goalie to bail you out as much as the Leafs have of late. They're still counting on a number of unsustainable trends to win, and that's certainly nothing to be impressed by.

I know Bernier's been fantastic the past 2 games, but prior to that he's probably had more human games this season than all of last season. And I think we can all agree that Kessel, despite having a ton of points, has yet to really look like his best self this season. So I think it's encouraging that we are where we are despite our two MVPs from last year reaching their plateaus.

Yes, the team is still a mess defensively and likely won't go anywhere even if they make the playoffs, but I do see improvements in their play. Mainly because of the additions of Komarov/Santorelli/Winnik, the presence of a 4th line, and the improved play/role of Holland. The increased depth that this offseason brought is definitely paying dividends.

Agreed. I don't think you can underestimate what these new additions bring to this club. I could be wrong here, but I don't see a major nosedive happening this season, not with these veteran guys chipping in at both ends of the ice. Sure , there'll be slumps, but not like we've seen the past few seasons. I'm getting a sense that this squad is for real. Much more solid footing. Barring any key injuries, I'm predicting a playoff spot.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I know Bernier's been fantastic the past 2 games, but prior to that he's probably had more human games this season than all of last season. And I think we can all agree that Kessel, despite having a ton of points, has yet to really look like his best self this season. So I think it's encouraging that we are where we are despite our two MVPs from last year reaching their plateaus.

I felt the same way about Bernier until I took a look at his numbers recently. In his last 11 starts, he's posted a Sv% of at least .946 on 6 occasions, and has only been .921 3 times (which, not surprisingly, were all Leaf losses). He seemed more "human" earlier in the season, and, yea, he's still allowing more weak goals that he did last season, but, he's still been a high volume of shots and putting up excellent numbers most of the time.

I wonder (and I'm just thinking out loud here) if some of those high SV% numbers are a reflection of 'score effects' because it seems like the Leafs have had a number of games recently with 2 or 3 goal leads (and fairly early in the game), and SV% has been shown to rise with more shots against.

I haven't looked to see if there are even enough games with 'score effects' situations to make that true but...just a thought.

 

[Kin]

i guess it depends on where your expectations are. This isn't a cup winner.  So yes...if that's where your expectations are for this years club then yes they're awful.  But if you're a long suffering leafs fan that would at this point just like to see some playoff hockey..because you know....it's only happened once in the last 10 years.  Then I think this team can do that and compared to other bubble teams they're not awful.

But I think that's sort of the point being made here. Right now they're 6th in the conference despite the fact that as busta points out there are some pretty good indications that they're playing over their head. Should those things regress a little you'll probably see the Leafs as very much a team that is on the bubble of making the playoffs.

So if the goal of the team really is to make the playoffs I think what's being said is that the results we've seen so far shouldn't be reason for complacency or satisfaction. Whether it's a change behind the bench or strategy changes or line-up changes or even outside roster moves they should all still be on the table and in order to make the playoffs this team still has pressing issues to address.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

i guess it depends on where your expectations are. This isn't a cup winner.  So yes...if that's where your expectations are for this years club then yes they're awful.  But if you're a long suffering leafs fan that would at this point just like to see some playoff hockey..because you know....it's only happened once in the last 10 years.  Then I think this team can do that and compared to other bubble teams they're not awful.

But I think that's sort of the point being made here. Right now they're 6th in the conference despite the fact that as busta points out there are some pretty good indications that they're playing over their head. Should those things regress a little you'll probably see the Leafs as very much a team that is on the bubble of making the playoffs.

So if the goal of the team really is to make the playoffs I think what's being said is that the results we've seen so far shouldn't be reason for complacency or satisfaction. Whether it's a change behind the bench or strategy changes or line-up changes or even outside roster moves they should all still be on the table and in order to make the playoffs this team still has pressing issues to address.

Then I guess it comes down to how I think this team compares to last years.  I don't know about you but I feel that this team is deeper than last years.  The secondary scoring may not be sustainable at the levels it's currently at but last year there wasn't any.  This made a lot of long nights for the time line which I think is one of the main reasons the wheels fell off at the end.  Every year is of course different.  But I kind of feel if we had this years team last year the team would have made the playoffs.  I'm not saying that the team can't improve.  I don't know a team that can't.  It just sometime feels a little more like chicken little around here and a little less like objective criticism.  Especially when there really have been some games this year where goaltending didn't have to bail them out.  And while I agree that not every win is deserved neither is every loss.

But for those that see more enjoyment out of feasting on every flaw the team has-and i'm not saying that's what you personally are doing- that's their perogative and all the more power to them.  I just really think there are some brightspots on this team and there will be plenty of time to get in the I told you so when the leafs go on their next losing streak but I'd like to extract some joy out of this team while I can (Maybe even madferret will stop by again like he did at the start of the season)

 

[Kin]

Then I guess it comes down to how I think this team compares to last years.  I don't know about you but I feel that this team is deeper than last years.  The secondary scoring may not be sustainable at the levels it's currently at but last year there wasn't any.  This made a lot of long nights for the time line which I think is one of the main reasons the wheels fell off at the end.  Every year is of course different.  But I kind of feel if we had this years team last year the team would have made the playoffs.  I'm not saying that the team can't improve.  I don't know a team that can't.  It just sometime feels a little more like chicken little around here and a little less like objective criticism.  Especially when there really have been some games this year where goaltending didn't have to bail them out.  And while I agree that not every win is deserved neither is every loss.

I don't think it's about whether or not this team can improve because as you say that's a fairly universal statement. It's more about thinking that if making the playoffs is really important then they should look to improve because right now the underlying numbers still indicate that they might have trouble doing so.

But for those that see more enjoyment out of feasting on every flaw the team has-and i'm not saying that's what you personally are doing- that's their perogative and all the more power to them.  I just really think there are some brightspots on this team and there will be plenty of time to get in the I told you so when the leafs go on their next losing streak but I'd like to extract some joy out of this team while I can (Maybe even madferret will stop by again like he did at the start of the season)

I don't think there's anything mutually exclusive between enjoying the team's wins as they happen and being able to see that there are indications that things need to be improved upon. Personally, I'm not even someone who really prioritizes the team making the playoffs this year. I'm really just saying that if you do, I think you have more reason to be antsy than satisfied so far.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

I don't think there's anything mutually exclusive between enjoying the team's wins as they happen and being able to see that there are indications that things need to be improved upon. Personally, I'm not even someone who really prioritizes the team making the playoffs this year. I'm really just saying that if you do, I think you have more reason to be antsy than satisfied so far.

The leafs could win every game and outshoot every opponent and I'd still spend time being antsy about them.