Free Agent Pursuit Thread(No You-Know-Who)

[CarltonTheBear]

Laich in particular seems like the perfect guy to keep around. Veteran, well-respected and almost entirely valueless. I agree with CtB that you don't want to see promising kids kept down if they've earned a spot but I also don't think you want a team where Kadri/Gardiner are the elder statesmen.

Agreed about Laich. He's the one I'd want to keep around.

 

[Kin]

I just don't see why you hold on to JVR at this point. If you care about winning in the next two years, sure, but if you realize that's not likely to happen...man this seems like a trade market a smart team wants to be a part of with a big chip.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Just to show the current logjam at forward:

JVR-Kadri-Soshnikov
Komarov-Bozak-Nylander
Greening-Matthews-Lupul
Rychel-Laich-Michalek
Hyman-Holland-Marner
Leivo-Froese-Brown

A number of those players (Rychel, Hyman, Soshnikov, Brown) are waiver-exempt, so the logjam could be cleared rather easily.  So is Nylander, but I don't see that happening.  Marner could go back to junior, but I sure hope not. 

I'm pretty sure your point was they shouldn't bother signing any Free-agent forwards, and to that, I completely agree- barring any trades happening.

 

[Frank E]

Just to show the current logjam at forward:

JVR-Kadri-Soshnikov
Komarov-Bozak-Nylander
Greening-Matthews-Lupul
Rychel-Laich-Michalek
Hyman-Holland-Marner
Leivo-Froese-Brown

I think Froese, Leivo, and Rychel are bound for the Marlies. That opens things up a little. Lupul's a question mark in terms of health (as he always seems to be). As for the rest . . . one of Soshnikov or Hyman may have to start the season in the AHL. They were both good in their brief stints last season, but I don't think either of them are guys that are locks for the roster.

See, I think Sosh and Hyman are getting a little too old/experienced to be sent down again...especially Hyman.  I think it's sink or swim time for them.

I could be convinced that Leivo, Rychel, and Froese are Marlies bound for the start of the season.  But did they acquire Rychel, the guy that whined his way to a trade because he didn't like the minors, to send him to the Marlies?

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I just don't see why you hold on to JVR at this point. If you care about winning in the next two years, sure, but if you realize that's not likely to happen...man this seems like a trade market a smart team wants to be a part of with a big chip.

Yeah, I'd be calling Anaheim hourly just to check-in.  ;D

 

[sneakyray]

I just don't see why you hold on to JVR at this point. If you care about winning in the next two years, sure, but if you realize that's not likely to happen...man this seems like a trade market a smart team wants to be a part of with a big chip.

I'm questioning the market on scoring wingers right now just because of the hall trade.  Maybe they can't get good enough value for him to trade him right now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I just don't see why you hold on to JVR at this point. If you care about winning in the next two years, sure, but if you realize that's not likely to happen...man this seems like a trade market a smart team wants to be a part of with a big chip.

I was starting to get on board with trading JVR before the draft and then that didn't happen. But after seeing the best defenceman that Taylor Hall could fetch I'm less optimistic about the return JVR can bring. So shop him, sure, but I'm not trading him for a defenceman who's worth half of what he is simply because he's a defenceman.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

A number of those players (Rychel, Hyman, Soshnikov, Brown) are waiver-exempt, so the logjam could be cleared rather easily.  So is Nylander, but I don't see that happening.  Marner could go back to junior, but I sure hope not.

Those guys could go on waivers and Marner could be sent back, but the question is should they be?

 

[Kin]

I was starting to get on board with trading JVR before the draft and then that didn't happen. But after seeing the best defenceman that Taylor Hall could fetch I'm less optimistic about the return JVR can bring. So shop him, sure, but I'm not trading him for a defenceman who's worth half of what he is simply because he's a defenceman.

I agree, although I don't necessarily think that you need to trade him for a defenseman who can help now as opposed to picks prospects, but with that said I don't think you can just dismiss the Edmonton factor in Hall's "value". They almost certainly make a Shattenkirk deal if Shattenkirk would sign there.

Larsson's value isn't just about how good a player he is, it's that he's under team control. I'd like to think the Leafs don't have the same problem.

 

[cabber24]

Just to show the current logjam at forward:

JVR-Kadri-Soshnikov
Komarov-Bozak-Nylander
Greening-Matthews-Lupul
Rychel-Laich-Michalek
Hyman-Holland-Marner
Leivo-Froese-Brown

I wouldn't call that a log jam, I see a lot of logs of s@#t in that line up.

 

[Frank E]

I was starting to get on board with trading JVR before the draft and then that didn't happen. But after seeing the best defenceman that Taylor Hall could fetch I'm less optimistic about the return JVR can bring. So shop him, sure, but I'm not trading him for a defenceman who's worth half of what he is simply because he's a defenceman.

I agree, although I don't necessarily think that you need to trade him for a defenseman who can help now as opposed to picks prospects, but with that said I don't think you can just dismiss the Edmonton factor in Hall's "value". They almost certainly make a Shattenkirk deal if Shattenkirk would sign there.

Larsson's value isn't just about how good a player he is, it's that he's under team control. I'd like to think the Leafs don't have the same problem.

I think that's a very important point:  Edmonton was trading for a guy under contract for years to come.

And that's not something they can say at the press conference as justification for the trade.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm curious to see what Okposo and Lucic get this week. The general worry about JVR is that while his contract is amazing right now it won't be in 2 years when the Leafs are ready to compete. And I get that. But I've seen some suggest that he could fetch $7mil x 7 years. That seems pretty unrealistic for a 50-60 point player who is defensively responsible. I think that Lucic and Okposo are both superior players and they're hitting free agency at about the same age that JVR will be. If their AAV starts with a 6 I think we could probably get JVR for something with a 5.

 

[Kin]

I'm curious to see what Okposo and Lucic get this week. The general worry about JVR is that while his contract is amazing right now it won't be in 2 years when the Leafs are ready to compete. And I get that. But I've seen some suggest that he could fetch $7mil x 7 years. That seems pretty unrealistic for a 50-60 point player who is defensively responsible. I think that Lucic and Okposo are both superior players and they're hitting free agency at about the same age that JVR will be. If their AAV starts with a 6 I think we could probably get JVR for something with a 5.

Maybe but I think you could probably make a case that JVR is the best player of the 3.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Maybe but I think you could probably make a case that JVR is the best player of the 3.

Like I said, I think both are better and more valuable than him.

I think you and I agreed the other day that Lucic is definitely the more valuable player of the two because of the premium teams put on a player like him. And when it comes to contracts that's what teams focus on.

As for Okposo, his PPG rate for the past 3 seasons has been 0.88. JVR's is 0.72. For reference, Stamkos is at 0.90. I think that Okposo is pretty underrated actually. Sure, he plays with Tavares, but even when JVR was with Kessel at his peak he never scored close to that rate.

 

[Frank E]

According to generalfanager, NJD didn't qualify Smith-Pelly.

He was only making $800K and had a pretty good run at the end of the season with them.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I just don't see why you hold on to JVR at this point. If you care about winning in the next two years, sure, but if you realize that's not likely to happen...man this seems like a trade market a smart team wants to be a part of with a big chip.

I agree, he's our best trade chip and most likely to improve our defense.  Other than that, I'm not sure he's that dispensable considering our depth of Left Wing prospects.

Consider this:  Marner, Brown, Kapanen, Hyman, Korshkov all shoot right.  Nylander may be the best shot at playing LW, but assuming Bozak also gets traded, he moves back to the middle where I think he's best suited long term.  Some of those guys may be able to make the switch to their off-wing, but I wouldn't count on it.

Best LW prospects:  Johnson, Soshnikov, Timashov, Grundstrom, Leipsic.  None of them are on JVR's level and I don't expect any of them to be 1st line winger material. 

A top line of JvR- Matthews - Marner in a couple of years just sounds too sexy.  But I'm not against using him in a trade, as long as we don't Chiarelli it.

(Edited because I forgot about Andreas Johnson on LW.)

 

[Coco-puffs]

A number of those players (Rychel, Hyman, Soshnikov, Brown) are waiver-exempt, so the logjam could be cleared rather easily.  So is Nylander, but I don't see that happening.  Marner could go back to junior, but I sure hope not.

Those guys could go on waivers and Marner could be sent back, but the question is should they be?

Oh heck no, they probably shouldn't!  Hyman and Brown, IMO, shouldn't be in the AHL at all anymore.  Soshnikov was fun to watch, but I'm not against him getting more seasoning.  Rychel I haven't seen enough of yet.  Marner is way too good for junior at this point, but is he ready for the NHL... not sure, but I hope so.

 

[herman]

Also, I was thinking about this last night. Can we really ever say that going after a big ticket UFA was the right decision for a team?

Ignore, for a second, the way we treat winning a Stanley cup as both the only acceptable outcome for a team and also something that justifies anything that precedes it.

When we talk about the big ticket free agents who helped their teams win cups, aren't we also talking about the teams that had to make the most bad decisions salary capwise? Would the Bruins have really been worse off if they hadn't signed Chara but could keep Kessel or Dougie Hamilton? Or if the Blackhawks didn't sign Hossa but kept Ladd or Byfuglien or Nick Leddy?

Probably, yes, as Chara and Hossa are the two best players there but I don't think it's that cut and dry. Signing big deal UFA's probably accelerates things and, I guess, allows for more control over the big ticket pieces you have but better in the long run? I'm unconvinced.

You're singing my song.

 

[Kin]

I think you and I agreed the other day that Lucic is definitely the more valuable player of the two because of the premium teams put on a player like him. And when it comes to contracts that's what teams focus on.

I don't know if that was me because while I might agree that Lucic will probably get a little more I think that's because he's overvalued by some and, keep in mind, it's only a couple of teams who feel a certain way to set the market.

I think in two years, there might be just as many teams who think the other way and make JVR a hot commodity.

As for Okposo, his PPG rate for the past 3 seasons has been 0.88. JVR's is 0.72. For reference, Stamkos is at 0.90. I think that Okposo is pretty underrated actually. Sure, he plays with Tavares, but even when JVR was with Kessel at his peak he never scored close to that rate.

Kessel, much as I love the guy, isn't Tavares. JVR's never played with a top flight center and definitely not a top notch distributor(although Kessel is underrated in that regard, he was never a guy who primarily looked to set up others).

Over the last 4 years, Okposo's GPG is .28. In that same stretch, JVR's is .36. On a per 82 game basis, that's the difference between being a 23 goal scorer and a 29 goal scorer. Not a huge deal, no, but when you factor in the Tavares/Kessel divide it's not nothing. There was also a massive gap between them this year in 5v5 goals per 60, with JVR being 90th and Okposo 237th.

Teams put a premium on toughness, sure, but also on scoring goals.

 

[bustaheims]

See, I think Sosh and Hyman are getting a little too old/experienced to be sent down again...especially Hyman.  I think it's sink or swim time for them.

Sochnikov is 23, and would be playing his 2nd season in North America. Hyman is 24, and would be playing his 2nd professional season. I don't think age or experience are really factors here. They could both probably still use some seasoning. The key for them is that they'll be the first in line to take spots after deals are made, and that's when they'll have to try to cement their spots going forward. I think they're both close, but neither of them are locks.