Game 39: Rangers @ Leafs - Apr. 8, 7:00pm - Sportsnet, Fan 590

[TML fan]

wow!!!!!!!!! Even after winning a big game like that, against a very good team, you guys find the bad, and its what you go on about.  grabbo had a brain cramp and was sat, RC has been doing it all season, and it has got his point across. but we win and all I heare is who we get rid of next season, why?. get on the waggon and enjoy the run, stop fretting people. like it or not we have a good team, so run with it, we have suffered long enough. time to reep the rewards.

Yes, I truely do hate it that this team is good.

No you don"t, TML does.  ;D

No, I hate that the team isn't good. I am glad they are winning games, but come talk to me after an 82 game season of what the Leafs call hockey and tell me if everyone is happy with the results. I promise you, if the Leafs play like this next year, they will not make the playoffs.

 

[Zee]

wow!!!!!!!!! Even after winning a big game like that, against a very good team, you guys find the bad, and its what you go on about.  grabbo had a brain cramp and was sat, RC has been doing it all season, and it has got his point across. but we win and all I heare is who we get rid of next season, why?. get on the waggon and enjoy the run, stop fretting people. like it or not we have a good team, so run with it, we have suffered long enough. time to reep the rewards.

Yes, I truely do hate it that this team is good.

No you don"t, TML does.  ;D

No, I hate that the team isn't good. I am glad they are winning games, but come talk to me after an 82 game season of what the Leafs call hockey and tell me if everyone is happy with the results. I promise you, if the Leafs play like this next year, they will not make the playoffs.

I'm curious, why do you think that the way they've played for 39 games won't translate into 82 games?  If they play the first 39 games like this next season, you think they'll suddenly fall off in the 2nd half of the season?  What makes you say they're not a good team?

 

[caver]

I really dont get everyone here. Bozak, is earning next to nothing. he defensively sound. He win approx 60 percent of his faceoffs, and he is capable to chip in 20 goals a year. You want someone like Richards, at 6-7 millions dollars a year. IMO You can keep him.

Yeah, no, absolutely.

You know, except for the fact that he's never scored 20 goals, is nowhere near 60 percent on face-offs and will be looking to make a lot of money next year that's bang-on.

You just keep your facts out of this !!

 

[TML fan]

wow!!!!!!!!! Even after winning a big game like that, against a very good team, you guys find the bad, and its what you go on about.  grabbo had a brain cramp and was sat, RC has been doing it all season, and it has got his point across. but we win and all I heare is who we get rid of next season, why?. get on the waggon and enjoy the run, stop fretting people. like it or not we have a good team, so run with it, we have suffered long enough. time to reep the rewards.

Yes, I truely do hate it that this team is good.

No you don"t, TML does.  ;D

No, I hate that the team isn't good. I am glad they are winning games, but come talk to me after an 82 game season of what the Leafs call hockey and tell me if everyone is happy with the results. I promise you, if the Leafs play like this next year, they will not make the playoffs.

I'm curious, why do you think that the way they've played for 39 games won't translate into 82 games?  If they play the first 39 games like this next season, you think they'll suddenly fall off in the 2nd half of the season?  What makes you say they're not a good team?

I don't believe that teams who play 2/3 of a game without the puck are good teams. I don't believe they can sustain this kind of play over a longer period of time. In a shortened season, with this many teams in the race, nobody has really tightened up defensively. More teams are playing desperate and taking more chances, which the Leafs are capitalizing on, and have been at a very high rate for most of this season. I don't think that happens in an 82 game schedule.

 

[gilmourthegreat]

wow!!!!!!!!! Even after winning a big game like that, against a very good team, you guys find the bad, and its what you go on about.  grabbo had a brain cramp and was sat, RC has been doing it all season, and it has got his point across. but we win and all I heare is who we get rid of next season, why?. get on the waggon and enjoy the run, stop fretting people. like it or not we have a good team, so run with it, we have suffered long enough. time to reep the rewards.

Yes, I truely do hate it that this team is good.

No you don"t, TML does.  ;D

No, I hate that the team isn't good. I am glad they are winning games, but come talk to me after an 82 game season of what the Leafs call hockey and tell me if everyone is happy with the results. I promise you, if the Leafs play like this next year, they will not make the playoffs.

I'm curious, why do you think that the way they've played for 39 games won't translate into 82 games?  If they play the first 39 games like this next season, you think they'll suddenly fall off in the 2nd half of the season?  What makes you say they're not a good team?

I don't believe that teams who play 2/3 of a game without the puck are good teams. I don't believe they can sustain this kind of play over a longer period of time.

I don't think you can ignore Corsi statistics entirely, since they have been proven to be highly predictive of future success.

At the same time, you can't ignore the fact that two of the best teams in the NHL, Toronto and Anaheim, are playing well above average while sitting back. I would imagine that the Corsi stats of the New Jersey Devils in the 2000s would have been bad as well. I'm not saying the Leafs or Ducks are about to win the cup, but a trapping style, which I see the Leafs play alot, tends to result in less possession. It is a style which has worked in the playoffs before, and may work again.

Bottom line, I am overjoyed by the success of the Leafs this year. Every game is a pleasure to watch, and I almost always feel we can win the game, even if we're down in the third. This is what I hoped for before the season, and I'm not ready to reset my expecational treadmill just yet.

GO LEAFS!!

 

[TML fan]

wow!!!!!!!!! Even after winning a big game like that, against a very good team, you guys find the bad, and its what you go on about.  grabbo had a brain cramp and was sat, RC has been doing it all season, and it has got his point across. but we win and all I heare is who we get rid of next season, why?. get on the waggon and enjoy the run, stop fretting people. like it or not we have a good team, so run with it, we have suffered long enough. time to reep the rewards.

Yes, I truely do hate it that this team is good.

No you don"t, TML does.  ;D

No, I hate that the team isn't good. I am glad they are winning games, but come talk to me after an 82 game season of what the Leafs call hockey and tell me if everyone is happy with the results. I promise you, if the Leafs play like this next year, they will not make the playoffs.

I'm curious, why do you think that the way they've played for 39 games won't translate into 82 games?  If they play the first 39 games like this next season, you think they'll suddenly fall off in the 2nd half of the season?  What makes you say they're not a good team?

I don't believe that teams who play 2/3 of a game without the puck are good teams. I don't believe they can sustain this kind of play over a longer period of time.

I don't think you can ignore Corsi statistics entirely, since they have been proven to be highly predictive of future success.

At the same time, you can't ignore the fact that two of the best teams in the NHL, Toronto and Anaheim, are playing well above average while sitting back. I would imagine that the Corsi stats of the New Jersey Devils in the 2000s would have been bad as well. I'm not saying the Leafs or Ducks are about to win the cup, but a trapping style, which I see the Leafs play alot, tends to result in less possession. It is a style which has worked in the playoffs before, and may work again.

Bottom line, I am overjoyed by the success of the Leafs this year. Every game is a pleasure to watch, and I almost always feel we can win the game, even if we're down in the third. This is what I hoped for before the season, and I'm not ready to reset my expecational treadmill just yet.

GO LEAFS!!

Ok, I don't even know what Corsi stats are, so those never factored into my opinion. The Leafs don't trap. They give up the zone and collapse. Allow point shots and basically just try to keep everything out of the middle of the ice. They've been getting the goaltending necessary to do that and be successful, and combined with being extremely opportunistic it's worked thus far. I think over the course of an 82 game season when teams are less desperate for points this will all even out and the amount of games the Leafs win playing under siege, will equal the amount of games lost.

I am very happy the Leafs look like they're going to make the playoffs this year, but the way they've done it doesn't fill me with confidence for the playoffs, or inspiration for seasons to follow. I would like to see more than a handful of games where the Leafs dictate the play from start to finish. Only when the Leafs can do that consistently will I consider them a good team.

 

[Bullfrog]

I don't believe that teams who play 2/3 of a game without the puck are good teams. I don't believe they can sustain this kind of play over a longer period of time. In a shortened season, with this many teams in the race, nobody has really tightened up defensively. More teams are playing desperate and taking more chances, which the Leafs are capitalizing on, and have been at a very high rate for most of this season. I don't think that happens in an 82 game schedule.

So, they capitalize on their opponents mistakes. Isn't that what good teams do?

 

[TML fan]

I don't believe that teams who play 2/3 of a game without the puck are good teams. I don't believe they can sustain this kind of play over a longer period of time. In a shortened season, with this many teams in the race, nobody has really tightened up defensively. More teams are playing desperate and taking more chances, which the Leafs are capitalizing on, and have been at a very high rate for most of this season. I don't think that happens in an 82 game schedule.

So, they capitalize on their opponents mistakes. Isn't that what good teams do?

Yes, but not exclusively. Good teams create their own chances.

 

[Zee]

wow!!!!!!!!! Even after winning a big game like that, against a very good team, you guys find the bad, and its what you go on about.  grabbo had a brain cramp and was sat, RC has been doing it all season, and it has got his point across. but we win and all I heare is who we get rid of next season, why?. get on the waggon and enjoy the run, stop fretting people. like it or not we have a good team, so run with it, we have suffered long enough. time to reep the rewards.

Yes, I truely do hate it that this team is good.

No you don"t, TML does.  ;D

No, I hate that the team isn't good. I am glad they are winning games, but come talk to me after an 82 game season of what the Leafs call hockey and tell me if everyone is happy with the results. I promise you, if the Leafs play like this next year, they will not make the playoffs.

I'm curious, why do you think that the way they've played for 39 games won't translate into 82 games?  If they play the first 39 games like this next season, you think they'll suddenly fall off in the 2nd half of the season?  What makes you say they're not a good team?

I don't believe that teams who play 2/3 of a game without the puck are good teams. I don't believe they can sustain this kind of play over a longer period of time. In a shortened season, with this many teams in the race, nobody has really tightened up defensively. More teams are playing desperate and taking more chances, which the Leafs are capitalizing on, and have been at a very high rate for most of this season. I don't think that happens in an 82 game schedule.

I think it works both ways.  You said that "teams are playing desperate and taking more chances", I think that makes them come at the Leafs more and take more shots.  If they're playing "less desperate" because it's a long season and don't feel the urgency to win, the shot totals against the Leafs would come down.  The Leafs have proven they can score goals on even small chances, so the goal scoring isn't an issue.  I don't see the Leafs only scoring goals on opposition teams being caught up the ice and creating a 2 on 1, the Leafs have created quite a bit of their own offense. 

 

[TML fan]

wow!!!!!!!!! Even after winning a big game like that, against a very good team, you guys find the bad, and its what you go on about.  grabbo had a brain cramp and was sat, RC has been doing it all season, and it has got his point across. but we win and all I heare is who we get rid of next season, why?. get on the waggon and enjoy the run, stop fretting people. like it or not we have a good team, so run with it, we have suffered long enough. time to reep the rewards.

Yes, I truely do hate it that this team is good.

No you don"t, TML does.  ;D

No, I hate that the team isn't good. I am glad they are winning games, but come talk to me after an 82 game season of what the Leafs call hockey and tell me if everyone is happy with the results. I promise you, if the Leafs play like this next year, they will not make the playoffs.

I'm curious, why do you think that the way they've played for 39 games won't translate into 82 games?  If they play the first 39 games like this next season, you think they'll suddenly fall off in the 2nd half of the season?  What makes you say they're not a good team?

I don't believe that teams who play 2/3 of a game without the puck are good teams. I don't believe they can sustain this kind of play over a longer period of time. In a shortened season, with this many teams in the race, nobody has really tightened up defensively. More teams are playing desperate and taking more chances, which the Leafs are capitalizing on, and have been at a very high rate for most of this season. I don't think that happens in an 82 game schedule.

I think it works both ways.  You said that "teams are playing desperate and taking more chances", I think that makes them come at the Leafs more and take more shots.  If they're playing "less desperate" because it's a long season and don't feel the urgency to win, the shot totals against the Leafs would come down.  The Leafs have proven they can score goals on even small chances, so the goal scoring isn't an issue.  I don't see the Leafs only scoring goals on opposition teams being caught up the ice and creating a 2 on 1, the Leafs have created quite a bit of their own offense.

Ok well if that's what you see, who am I to argue? I don't see it that way.

 

[wnc096]

wow!!!!!!!!! Even after winning a big game like that, against a very good team, you guys find the bad, and its what you go on about.  grabbo had a brain cramp and was sat, RC has been doing it all season, and it has got his point across. but we win and all I heare is who we get rid of next season, why?. get on the waggon and enjoy the run, stop fretting people. like it or not we have a good team, so run with it, we have suffered long enough. time to reep the rewards.

Yes, I truely do hate it that this team is good.

No you don"t, TML does.  ;D

No, I hate that the team isn't good. I am glad they are winning games, but come talk to me after an 82 game season of what the Leafs call hockey and tell me if everyone is happy with the results. I promise you, if the Leafs play like this next year, they will not make the playoffs.

I'm curious, why do you think that the way they've played for 39 games won't translate into 82 games?  If they play the first 39 games like this next season, you think they'll suddenly fall off in the 2nd half of the season?  What makes you say they're not a good team?

I don't believe that teams who play 2/3 of a game without the puck are good teams. I don't believe they can sustain this kind of play over a longer period of time. In a shortened season, with this many teams in the race, nobody has really tightened up defensively. More teams are playing desperate and taking more chances, which the Leafs are capitalizing on, and have been at a very high rate for most of this season. I don't think that happens in an 82 game schedule.

I think it works both ways.  You said that "teams are playing desperate and taking more chances", I think that makes them come at the Leafs more and take more shots.  If they're playing "less desperate" because it's a long season and don't feel the urgency to win, the shot totals against the Leafs would come down.  The Leafs have proven they can score goals on even small chances, so the goal scoring isn't an issue.  I don't see the Leafs only scoring goals on opposition teams being caught up the ice and creating a 2 on 1, the Leafs have created quite a bit of their own offense.

Gotta agree with that.  I mean you don't score 121 goals (4th in the league) by simply being opportunistic. 

 

[Bullfrog]

Gotta agree with that.  I mean you don't score 121 goals (4th in the league) by simply being opportunistic.

Exactly. This has plenty of offensive skill and creativity.

 

[Palmateer29]

I just don't get it.  Komarov made a turnover that lead to a goal an Carlyle played him after.  But he doesn't play Grabovski?

I have no idea what they'll do with Grabovski.  You can't pay a guy $5.5M and have him playing 3rd/4th line minutes.  It's pretty obvious Carlyle doesn't trust him, so what are the options?

1) Nonis tells Carlyle to play Grabovski more -- highly unlikely and always a bad situation to have a GM dictating a lineup
2) Carlyle gives Grabovski more of a chance next season, if he continues to flounder you look to move him
3) Buy out / trade Grabovski either this summer or next (provided #2 is followed this will happen NEXT summer)
4) Fire Carlyle, get a coach that likes Grabovski -- won't happen while the Leafs are sporting a winning record

In any event, it has to be dealt with at some point.  They have contracts coming up, notably Bozak, Kessel, Kadri to name a few.  Grabovski's salary and his production isn't doing the Leafs any favors right now.

That is how I'm seeing it to.  If your going to trade Grabbo the we better do it in the summer. Hopefully then we can get a UFA centre to replace him.

Maybe they can package him with Gardiner and get a big center or whatever else they need. Unless Gardiner has huge patience I don't see him wanting to stick around when his contract expires after next year. Maybe he can go play with his buddy Schultz in Edmonton.

I think that might be akin to trading Kadri last year, when was playing with the Marlies. In other words, you don't do it.

I completely agree but if Wilson was still here then Kadri would still be playing with the Marlies and/or 4 minutes a game on the 4th line. I just think the at some point Gardiner's patience will run out when he is sitting behind Kostka, O'Byrne, Holtzer and even Franson. Sitting in the press box isn't helping his game, isn't helping his confidence or helping his defensive game. That's the only point I'm trying to make.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I am very happy the Leafs look like they're going to make the playoffs this year, but the way they've done it doesn't fill me with confidence for the playoffs, or inspiration for seasons to follow. I would like to see more than a handful of games where the Leafs dictate the play from start to finish. Only when the Leafs can do that consistently will I consider them a good team.

Consistently dictating the play from start to finish isn't the mark of a good team, it's the mark of an unquestionably elite team.  It's a standard that almost no NHL team can and does achieve.  Your expectations for the team are lofty and a worthwhile standard for the team to strive for, but I think you're guaranteed to be disappointed for a very long time.

 

[Bender]

I am very happy the Leafs look like they're going to make the playoffs this year, but the way they've done it doesn't fill me with confidence for the playoffs, or inspiration for seasons to follow. I would like to see more than a handful of games where the Leafs dictate the play from start to finish. Only when the Leafs can do that consistently will I consider them a good team.

Consistently dictating the play from start to finish isn't the mark of a good team, it's the mark of an unquestionably elite team.  It's a standard that almost no NHL team can and does achieve.  Your expectations for the team are lofty and a worthwhile standard for the team to strive for, but I think you're guaranteed to be disappointed for a very long time.

I'd also like to ask for the definition of "good" team. If a good team is one that makes the playoffs then, so far, the Leafs are a good team. If your argument is good teams create their own chances and the Leafs have not, well I frankly don't know how you can prove your point and make any Messier-esque guarantees that the Leafs wouldn't make the playoffs over an 82 game season based on  how they've played currently. Your argument is too circular and subjective for it to be convincing. The general consensus I feel is if the Leafs continue to play the way they have then they will make the playoffs - most believe this based not only on observation but on statistical analysis as well.

If you're trying to argue that the Leafs are playing a 48 game style that won't fly in an 82 game season because other teams are taking more chances than usual then, well, isn't that an argument you can make against pretty much EVERY team since they're all playing a 48 game season, and therefore probably also a 48 game style?

 

[TML fan]

I am very happy the Leafs look like they're going to make the playoffs this year, but the way they've done it doesn't fill me with confidence for the playoffs, or inspiration for seasons to follow. I would like to see more than a handful of games where the Leafs dictate the play from start to finish. Only when the Leafs can do that consistently will I consider them a good team.

Consistently dictating the play from start to finish isn't the mark of a good team, it's the mark of an unquestionably elite team.  It's a standard that almost no NHL team can and does achieve.  Your expectations for the team are lofty and a worthwhile standard for the team to strive for, but I think you're guaranteed to be disappointed for a very long time.

Your argument is too circular and subjective for it to be convincing.

Then it's a good thing I'm not trying to convince anyone. I am just speaking my mind. As for the rest of it, only time will tell.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Can Gardiner be sent to the Marlies on a conditioning stint?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I am very happy the Leafs look like they're going to make the playoffs this year, but the way they've done it doesn't fill me with confidence for the playoffs, or inspiration for seasons to follow. I would like to see more than a handful of games where the Leafs dictate the play from start to finish. Only when the Leafs can do that consistently will I consider them a good team.

Consistently dictating the play from start to finish isn't the mark of a good team, it's the mark of an unquestionably elite team.  It's a standard that almost no NHL team can and does achieve.  Your expectations for the team are lofty and a worthwhile standard for the team to strive for, but I think you're guaranteed to be disappointed for a very long time.

I'd also like to ask for the definition of "good" team. If a good team is one that makes the playoffs then, so far, the Leafs are a good team. If your argument is good teams create their own chances and the Leafs have not, well I frankly don't know how you can prove your point and make any Messier-esque guarantees that the Leafs wouldn't make the playoffs over an 82 game season based on  how they've played currently. Your argument is too circular and subjective for it to be convincing. The general consensus I feel is if the Leafs continue to play the way they have then they will make the playoffs - most believe this based not only on observation but on statistical analysis as well.

If you're trying to argue that the Leafs are playing a 48 game style that won't fly in an 82 game season because other teams are taking more chances than usual then, well, isn't that an argument you can make against pretty much EVERY team since they're all playing a 48 game season, and therefore probably also a 48 game style?

I don't know about any of that, but this is why I have thought it would be less likely in an 82 game season.  48 games leaves less time to regress to the mean.

Whereas more casual observers see a team that is seventh in goals per game and has cut its goals against dramatically from last season, the statistically inclined point to the fact the Leafs are outshot more heavily than all but one other NHL team (Edmonton Oilers) and have a shooting percentage that?s abnormally high (10.3 per cent at even strength).

Both are considered indicators a team?s record will not hold up long-term.

?It?s a lot more likely the Leafs have been on an unsustainable hot streak than that this team is one of the best collection of snipers in recent years,? Tulsky explained of why shooting percentage can matter. ?While anything could happen over the short time span left in the season, it?s reasonable to expect that their offence will fall off a bit and their results will fade with it.

?Last year, they were riding a shooting percentage that was a bit high, but the team was only outshot by a little. This year, they are getting much more badly outshot and are relying much more heavily on their hot shooting to keep them in it.?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/statistician-forecasts-tougher-second-half-for-resurgent-maple-leafs/article9652448/

 

[losveratos]

I am very happy the Leafs look like they're going to make the playoffs this year, but the way they've done it doesn't fill me with confidence for the playoffs, or inspiration for seasons to follow. I would like to see more than a handful of games where the Leafs dictate the play from start to finish. Only when the Leafs can do that consistently will I consider them a good team.

Consistently dictating the play from start to finish isn't the mark of a good team, it's the mark of an unquestionably elite team.  It's a standard that almost no NHL team can and does achieve.  Your expectations for the team are lofty and a worthwhile standard for the team to strive for, but I think you're guaranteed to be disappointed for a very long time.

I'd also like to ask for the definition of "good" team. If a good team is one that makes the playoffs then, so far, the Leafs are a good team. If your argument is good teams create their own chances and the Leafs have not, well I frankly don't know how you can prove your point and make any Messier-esque guarantees that the Leafs wouldn't make the playoffs over an 82 game season based on  how they've played currently. Your argument is too circular and subjective for it to be convincing. The general consensus I feel is if the Leafs continue to play the way they have then they will make the playoffs - most believe this based not only on observation but on statistical analysis as well.

If you're trying to argue that the Leafs are playing a 48 game style that won't fly in an 82 game season because other teams are taking more chances than usual then, well, isn't that an argument you can make against pretty much EVERY team since they're all playing a 48 game season, and therefore probably also a 48 game style?

I don't know about any of that, but this is why I have thought it would be less likely in an 82 game season.  48 games leaves less time to regress to the mean.

Whereas more casual observers see a team that is seventh in goals per game and has cut its goals against dramatically from last season, the statistically inclined point to the fact the Leafs are outshot more heavily than all but one other NHL team (Edmonton Oilers) and have a shooting percentage that?s abnormally high (10.3 per cent at even strength).

Both are considered indicators a team?s record will not hold up long-term.

?It?s a lot more likely the Leafs have been on an unsustainable hot streak than that this team is one of the best collection of snipers in recent years,? Tulsky explained of why shooting percentage can matter. ?While anything could happen over the short time span left in the season, it?s reasonable to expect that their offence will fall off a bit and their results will fade with it.

?Last year, they were riding a shooting percentage that was a bit high, but the team was only outshot by a little. This year, they are getting much more badly outshot and are relying much more heavily on their hot shooting to keep them in it.?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/statistician-forecasts-tougher-second-half-for-resurgent-maple-leafs/article9652448/

Your article predicted a regresion to 7th or 8th position from 5th in the Eastern division... but since the article was written, we've played 13 more games and gathered 17 points out of 26 available. That's pretty good hockey. The second thing is that we're still in 5th.

How far into the future do you want to push this regression off to before you say "Ok.... maybe they're just a better team playing better than before."?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

It's not a way to time travel, it's just an attempt to predict future performance.  It's not going to be necessarily right in every instance, and the article itself mentions the shorter schedule as a point in the Leafs favour.  There's no magic number of games for the team to 'regress' - they may not even.  Teams can have lucky/fortunate seasons.  Considering a normal season would have 34 more games, there would normally be a lot of time to see.