Gardiner: Where's he heading, career-wise?

[GhostofPotvin29]

I've wasted such a good rick roll opportunity.

 

[bustaheims]

I've wasted such a good rick roll opportunity.

Is it 2007?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I've wasted such a good rick roll opportunity.

Is it 2007?

Wazzzuuuuuup

 

[lamajama]

But Dion's 105 so this is clearly an flawed chart.

 

[Tigger]

I think it's been long enough now to be able to say, even cautiously, that Jake seems to have worked out the bone headed plays under Babcock. His defensive play has really improved so far too, nice to see.

 

[2badknees]

I changed the filter to Fenwick, and it turns into a much less complimentary picture. I had assumed that over a long time period, there should be closer correlation?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

This link probably won't work on mobile, but I love these "HERO" charts from http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/

It's a really easy way to get a sense of a player if you are unable to do a ton of research.  Here's the one for Gardiner:  http://public.tableau.com/shared/FQ24B3BK3?:display_count=yes

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

This link probably won't work on mobile, but I love these "HERO" charts from http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/

It's a really easy way to get a sense of a player if you are unable to do a ton of research.  Here's the one for Gardiner:  http://public.tableau.com/shared/FQ24B3BK3?:display_count=yes

There has been a small section of the "analytics community" that have been banging the Gardiner drum on social media for most of this season. He is in some special company when you look at his numbers.

 

[hobarth]

I think there's a huge disconnect between hero charts and analytics and the real world, Gardiner is a poster boy for this disconnect.

Gardiner's stats this year 48 GP-3 G-13 A= 16 Pts, -6, Gardiner's ATOI is 19:27 more because of TO's lack of options than his quality of play.

I/we need to see Gardiner justify his lofty analytics but it ain't happening.

 

[herman]

Analytics attempts to measure the process of success (elements of a game under the players control). The stats you've quoted merely measure the results, and those are subject to a variety of random elements and are not always an accurate measure of a player's value.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Analytics attempts to measure the process of success (elements of a game under the players control). The stats you've quoted merely measure the results, and those are subject to a variety of random elements and are not always an accurate measure of a player's value.

Babcock has made a point this year to say guys some of the young guys need to learn the defensive side of the game before the offensive leash is lengthened. I think we've seen that with Rielly this year (minimal power play time), and perhaps Kadri as well (not sure about Gardiner). If they score less in this scenario it's not necessarily a reflection of their offensive ability, but more about their development process. Now if Gardiner is scoring less and his advanced stats go into the toilet, then there may be a problem.

 

[Redleaf]

Analytics attempts to measure the process of success (elements of a game under the players control). The stats you've quoted merely measure the results, and those are subject to a variety of random elements and are not always an accurate measure of a player's value.

Babcock has made a point this year to say guys some of the young guys need to learn the defensive side of the game before the offensive leash is lengthened. I think we've seen that with Rielly this year (minimal power play time), and perhaps Kadri as well (not sure about Gardiner). If they score less in this scenario it's not necessarily a reflection of their offensive ability, but more about their development process. Now if Gardiner is scoring less and his advanced stats go into the toilet, then there may be a problem.

I agree. Back to the basics, especially for the young D-men. It's nice that we have 2 stud defencemen a little older than the nucleus coming up soon. They should have babs system down pat by the time the young forwards come up. Defencemen take longer to grow into their roles and I think the timings important for the young d to get a head start.

 

[hobarth]

Analytics attempts to measure the process of success (elements of a game under the players control). The stats you've quoted merely measure the results, and those are subject to a variety of random elements and are not always an accurate measure of a player's value.

Babcock has made a point this year to say guys some of the young guys need to learn the defensive side of the game before the offensive leash is lengthened. I think we've seen that with Rielly this year (minimal power play time), and perhaps Kadri as well (not sure about Gardiner). If they score less in this scenario it's not necessarily a reflection of their offensive ability, but more about their development process. Now if Gardiner is scoring less and his advanced stats go into the toilet, then there may be a problem.

I from the old school that the best defense is offense or more precisely possession. Rielly is an excellent possession player and as such for me he hasn't been utilized to his fullest advantage. I fail to see how depriving him of PP time makes him a better defensive player, I don't think TO needs more Hunwicks, more Karlssons yes.

If you have superior offensive d-men then I think it's up to the coach to incorporate the offense while looking for defense, not nearly totally suppressing the offense for defense. Both Gardiner's and Rielly's instincts are motor with the puck to defend, that should be encouraged because they're good at it.

I couldn't care a less about advanced stats, I do care that the Leafs are horrible and if Gardiner and Rielly can post decent stats not being themselves imagine what they could do if they were given more opportunity to be themselves.

O'Dog on Leaf lunch said what's up with Babs not playing Rielly on the PP, PP duties are as much a learning experience as defense.

 

[herman]

The tactic Babcock is taking with Gardiner and Rielly is good for their development into better rounded defensemen and good for the Tank. Best way to develop is to focus on what you're not as good at yet, rather than trying to max out scoring stats, especially in a year with no expectations on results.

Who cares how well you can carry the puck into the offensive zone if you don't know how to take the puck away from the other team first? The point of a structured defensive system is to earn the puck back as a team, and that's what they're focusing on.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

The tactic Babcock is taking with Gardiner and Rielly is good for their development into better rounded defensemen and good for the Tank. Best way to develop is to focus on what you're not as good at yet, rather than trying to max out scoring stats, especially in a year with no expectations on results.

Who cares how well you can carry the puck into the offensive zone if you don't know how to take the puck away from the other team first? The point of a structured defensive system is to earn the puck back as a team, and that's what they're focusing on.

Which is exactly why they've been able to hang in in so many games, even with much less talent than their opponents.

 

[Kin]

O'Dog on Leaf lunch said what's up with Babs not playing Rielly on the PP, PP duties are as much a learning experience as defense.

I'm sorry but no. Just no.

 

[hobarth]

The tactic Babcock is taking with Gardiner and Rielly is good for their development into better rounded defensemen and good for the Tank. Best way to develop is to focus on what you're not as good at yet, rather than trying to max out scoring stats, especially in a year with no expectations on results.

Who cares how well you can carry the puck into the offensive zone if you don't know how to take the puck away from the other team first? The point of a structured defensive system is to earn the puck back as a team, and that's what they're focusing on.

Even Babs says the best way to defend is to get the puck into the opposition's zone and keep it there.

 

[herman]

The tactic Babcock is taking with Gardiner and Rielly is good for their development into better rounded defensemen and good for the Tank. Best way to develop is to focus on what you're not as good at yet, rather than trying to max out scoring stats, especially in a year with no expectations on results.

Who cares how well you can carry the puck into the offensive zone if you don't know how to take the puck away from the other team first? The point of a structured defensive system is to earn the puck back as a team, and that's what they're focusing on.

Even Babs says the best way to defend is to get the puck into the opposition's zone and keep it there.

Which is precisely what Gardiner's lofty analytics numbers show he is doing.

 

[hobarth]

The tactic Babcock is taking with Gardiner and Rielly is good for their development into better rounded defensemen and good for the Tank. Best way to develop is to focus on what you're not as good at yet, rather than trying to max out scoring stats, especially in a year with no expectations on results.

Who cares how well you can carry the puck into the offensive zone if you don't know how to take the puck away from the other team first? The point of a structured defensive system is to earn the puck back as a team, and that's what they're focusing on.

Even Babs says the best way to defend is to get the puck into the opposition's zone and keep it there.

Which is precisely what Gardiner's lofty analytics numbers show he is doing.

I remember Gardiner in his first year before RC got his hands on him, that was a promising dynamic offensively inclined prospect. What we have now is a far cry from that player, what we have is a player who's style has been compromised by a coach who wants him to conform to his needs. Phanny is the same and now Babs is doing the same malarkey with Rielly.

Edmonton, one of the pioneering teams of the analytic minded, had a d-man last year that was it's best corsi stated d-man, they traded away this gem for a 4th rounder to TO, Marincin. That he was traded while being their best tells me that Edmonton altho knowing his status/value couldn't accept his stats as being superior in any way shape or form. Another gem that TO found over the summer had very impressive corsi stats last year, Arco and he can't even keep his position on the worst team in the NHL this year.

If something is too good to be true, it is, no matter what the analytics tells you. There a lot of overcoaching going on, especially in TO.

 

[herman]

I remember Gardiner in his first year before RC got his hands on him, that was a promising dynamic offensively inclined prospect. What we have now is a far cry from that player, what we have is a player who's style has been compromised by a coach who wants him to conform to his needs. Phanny is the same and now Babs is doing the same malarkey with Rielly.

Edmonton, one of the pioneering teams of the analytic minded, had a d-man last year that was it's best corsi stated d-man, they traded away this gem for a 4th rounder to TO, Marincin. That he was traded while being their best tells me that Edmonton altho knowing his status/value couldn't accept his stats as being superior in any way shape or form. Another gem that TO found over the summer had very impressive corsi stats last year, Arco and he can't even keep his position on the worst team in the NHL this year.

If something is too good to be true, it is, no matter what the analytics tells you. There a lot of overcoaching going on, especially in TO.

The context of this season plays a huge role in how to interpret Gardiner and Rielly's production and deployment. As Shanahan/Lamoriello/Babcock have all said repeatedly, this season is about establishing a playing structure and developing players to be year-round professionals. It's a rebuild of a foundation reusing as much of the existing material as possible.

To that end, offensively dynamic defensemen (Gardiner/Rielly), are being paid special attention to teach them a structured system that they never had in the NHL that will help support their defensive play, and allow them to be turned loose on offense with much less to fear when they do take those risks.

The previous regime had the mandate to win, so Carlyle coached accordingly -- score goals at just about any cost (see Bozak's line). This left our defensemen (and goaltenders) vulnerable on the backend because no one was there to receive passes when they retrieved the puck, and the defensemen were forced to either carry it themselves solo, or fire a low-percentage high-risk pass to the opposite blue line. This led to many turnovers coming back, or repeated icings leaving the whole unit tired or on the PK. Carlyle's system made it an uphill battle every shift, and he apparently never bothered to teach his players the reason behind his methods. So in addition to being tired and prone to mistakes, they were never given any guidance on how to play his system better.

This year, Babcock is instilling a structure that helps funnel the flow of the game into areas of the ice where our team will have more support and opportunities to generate shots on goal. MLHS had a great article earlier this year about Babcock's swinging centre scheme that utilizes the middle of the ice to give our players more options than the old chip and chase. All it requires of players is to go to their appointed positions in the given situations, execute their short passes, and then have fun on offense.

I don't see this as overcoaching, or stifling offensive creativity; I see it as giving your skilled offensive talents an opportunity to do their thing by building a team structure that reduces the risk of jumping into the play. This is what good coaches should do: give players the opportunities to be their best.