General Leafs Talk

[Kin]

You asked for examples of top flight #1 C having been involved in trades and I gave them to you with the asterisk that you may not think they are as elite as you gauge important for the dialogue. 

But again, that's none. None of the guys you're talking about are what you're talking about. You thinking that they might have been in Toronto is absolutely no different than anyone thinking that Kadri might be. I mean, you give reasons why Kadri isn't that guy here well, guess what, there are reasons why Jeff Carter and Jordan Staal aren't that either.

Anyone the Leafs could have traded for to become their #1 center came with big asterisks and no, they're not "better than what we have."

 

[Kin]

To my mind, at $5m Lecavalier would've been worth it as an upgrade.

Sure. There's still no way of knowing if that gets you him though. If the Leafs offered 5 million, Philly might have countered with 5.1.

Back to the point: what, then, becomes a fair a basis of criticism?

I think anything's a fair basis for criticism if you're actually criticizing the results of decisions made as opposed to how something might look the day after it happened on the basis of the imaginary choices you might have thought were better.

 

[mr grieves]

Back to the point: what, then, becomes a fair a basis of criticism?

I think anything's a fair basis for criticism if you're actually criticizing the results of decisions made as opposed to how something might look the day after it happened on the basis of the imaginary choices you might have thought were better.

Well, I thought we were all supposed to something here till the season started other tell each other whether David Clarkson is more reminiscent of Wendel Clark or Gary Roberts.

 

[Kin]

Well, I thought we were all supposed to something here till the season started other tell each other whether David Clarkson is more reminiscent of Wendel Clark or Gary Roberts.

Likewise, it's fully within the realm of legitimate criticism to say "I wouldn't have signed Clarkson" or "If I were running the team I'd have kept Grabo, not re-signed Bozak and fired Carlyle after the team just made the playoffs for the first time in a decade if he didn't like which of the middle-tier options for the center position I did" because those are all decisions that we're sure that Nonis had available to him.

It's the "I'd have signed Lecavalier" or "I'd have traded for Matt Duchene with Kadri and the magic beans" that aren't really things that you can criticize someone for without knowing the whole story.

 

[mr grieves]

Well, I thought we were all supposed to something here till the season started other tell each other whether David Clarkson is more reminiscent of Wendel Clark or Gary Roberts.

Likewise, it's fully within the realm of legitimate criticism to say "I wouldn't have signed Clarkson" or "If I were running the team I'd have kept Grabo, not re-signed Bozak and fired Carlyle after the team just made the playoffs for the first time in a decade if he didn't like which of the middle-tier options for the center position I did" because those are all decisions that we're sure that Nonis had available to him.

It's the "I'd have signed Lecavalier" or "I'd have traded for Matt Duchene with Kadri and the magic beans" that aren't really things that you can criticize someone for without knowing the whole story.

Well, I've mostly been "If I were running the team I'd have kept Grabo, not re-signed Bozak and fired stuck Carlyle with Grabo even if he didn't like which of the middle-tier options for the center position I did because I don't want the team I manage to risk losing its RFAs to offer sheets."

 

[Deebo]

I don't think there are many clubs, if any, that have the excess budget or cap room to throw a large enough offersheet at our RFAs that we wouldn't match.

 

[Kin]

Well, I've mostly been "If I were running the team I'd have kept Grabo, not re-signed Bozak and fired stuck Carlyle with Grabo even if he didn't like which of the middle-tier options for the center position I did because I don't want the team I manage to risk losing its RFAs to offer sheets."

1. I'm not sure that's any better or makes more sense. If you don't like the way Carlyle puts together the team, if you think his preference of Bozak is completely off as you think and his complete and total disinterest in using Grabovski is as poorly reasoned as you think why keep Carlyle around? More to the point, if you accept that Carlyle doesn't want Grabo for his top six why keep around a 5.5 million dollar third line center who's so-so defensively and can't win draws? It seems to me as though actively choosing between Carlyle and Grabo is necessary regardless of any other decisions.

2. Every year we hear about how "Team X is way too close to the cap so they'll lose a bunch of players to offer sheets" and it never happens. Seriously, under the last CBA how many RFA's were signed away by other teams? Call it a collusory practice if you like but teams typically don't offer sheet other team's RFAs because A) they know it's an inflationary practice that can just as easily bite them and B) teams are pretty likely to match and just look for cap space elsewhere so ultimately all it does is drive up the price of their own RFA's down the road. Feeling that strongly about a move because of the "risk" that a team "might" see some of it's players get offer sheets is, in terms of the times it's actually happened, along the lines of being really pissed that you didn't make it to the store in time for your lottery tickets.

3) This is what I mean about criticism being better placed if it comes from a "Decision A caused Result B, therefore Decision A sucked" sort of place as opposed to "Decision A might maybe could cause Result B, therefore I'm going to spend a lot of time talking about why Decision A could possibly result in bad things and is a bad decision". Why not give Nonis the benefit of the doubt here? What if he has a much better sense of what it'll take to sign the team's RFA's than you do because of actual communications with the player's agents? What if he has a standing offer for Liles on the table and he's just waiting to see if he can get the RFA's signed cheap and keep them all? I agree, if signing Clarkson results in the team shipping Kadri to the Ducks for a 6th round pick, he'll have badly managed his assets but isn't it a little prudent to let that happen first?

 

[mr grieves]

I don't think there are many clubs, if any, that have the excess budget or cap room to throw a large enough offersheet at our RFAs that we wouldn't match.

Bigger question, for me, is "will we be able to match?"

Fraser's in arbitration, and, given his Group, I think the Leafs have to pay him what he's awarded (i.e. they can't walk away and make him UFA). He might get $1M, but even that's no sure thing given what evidence the arbitrators look at. But let's say $ 1M. The team's down to to $9.3M for 3 forwards. One will be Kadri. Say he gets $3.3M, and we're at $6M. Say the other's Colborne with a ~10% raise to $1M, and the last is some plug at the league minimum ($500k?), and now you've got $4.5M for both Gunnarson and Franson.

There are plenty of ways this ends with the Leafs losing at least one of Colborne, Kadri, Franson, and Gunnarson. The only way out of this tight spot is to trade salary away -- Liles, one hopes -- and not take much back. Maybe send a prospect along with him?

Until that happens, it doesn't matter whether the Leafs would match offer sheets. They really can't.

 

[mr grieves]

Well, I've mostly been "If I were running the team I'd have kept Grabo, not re-signed Bozak and fired stuck Carlyle with Grabo even if he didn't like which of the middle-tier options for the center position I did because I don't want the team I manage to risk losing its RFAs to offer sheets."

1. I'm not sure that's any better or makes more sense. If you don't like the way Carlyle puts together the team, if you think his preference of Bozak is completely off as you think and his complete and total disinterest in using Grabovski is as poorly reasoned as you think why keep Carlyle around? More to the point, if you accept that Carlyle doesn't want Grabo for his top six why keep around a 5.5 million dollar third line center who's so-so defensively and can't win draws? It seems to me as though actively choosing between Carlyle and Grabo is necessary regardless of any other decisions.

2. Every year we hear about how "Team X is way too close to the cap so they'll lose a bunch of players to offer sheets" and it never happens. Seriously, under the last CBA how many RFA's were signed away by other teams? Call it a collusory practice if you like but teams typically don't offer sheet other team's RFAs because A) they know it's an inflationary practice that can just as easily bite them and B) teams are pretty likely to match and just look for cap space elsewhere so ultimately all it does is drive up the price of their own RFA's down the road. Feeling that strongly about a move because of the "risk" that a team "might" see some of it's players get offer sheets is, in terms of the times it's actually happened, along the lines of being really pissed that you didn't make it to the store in time for your lottery tickets.

3) This is what I mean about criticism being better placed if it comes from a "Decision A caused Result B, therefore Decision A sucked" sort of place as opposed to "Decision A might maybe could cause Result B, therefore I'm going to spend a lot of time talking about why Decision A could possibly result in bad things and is a bad decision". Why not give Nonis the benefit of the doubt here? What if he has a much better sense of what it'll take to sign the team's RFA's than you do because of actual communications with the player's agents? What if he has a standing offer for Liles on the table and he's just waiting to see if he can get the RFA's signed cheap and keep them all? I agree, if signing Clarkson results in the team shipping Kadri to the Ducks for a 6th round pick, he'll have badly managed his assets but isn't it a little prudent to let that happen first?

1. If I were managing the Leafs, yes I would've fired Carlyle. If I were managing any hockey team, I'd give the coach the best line-up I could and have him get the most he can out of it.

2. 8 times in the last 7 years, and the money that could be offered to the Leafs RFAs needn't even exceed what they'd get from a very team-friendly arbitrator to screw with the team's cap situation. I don't think 29 other teams are going to help the Dave Nonis sign Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarson, and Cody Franson for below value.

3. I already said Liles would need to move to make the above no problem at all. Maybe Nonis does have a standing offer. Maybe he encourages another RFA go to arbitration so another buyout window opens and he can ditch Liles that way. Either way, we'd need to give him the benefit of the doubt. He hasn't done much since March for me to give him that.

 

[Kin]

1. If I were managing the Leafs, yes I would've fired Carlyle.

Yeah, that's why I said it a while back. You could have just agreed and we'd move on. 

2. 8 times in the last 7 years, and the money that could be offered to the Leafs RFAs needn't even exceed what they'd get from a very team-friendly arbitrator to screw with the team's cap situation. I don't think 29 other teams are going to help the Dave Nonis sign Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarson, and Cody Franson for below value.

Just for the record, the answer is once. Not 8. One time in the last 8 years did a team actually sign a player to an offer sheet that wasn't matched.

Why? GMs know that teams bidding on RFA's drives up the prices on their own RFA's. That's why it's a dead market. All the Leafs need to do to teams is say "We'll match" and any move towards offer-sheeting someone is inherently self-destructive. I don't have a lot of faith in the ability of GM's to act responsibly as a rule but the whole "don't bid on other team's RFA's" thing is one they've been able to stick to pretty well. 

3. I already said Liles would need to move to make the above no problem at all. Maybe Nonis does have a standing offer. Maybe he encourages another RFA go to arbitration so another buyout window opens and he can ditch Liles that way. Either way, we'd need to give him the benefit of the doubt.

You really don't need to give Nonis the benefit of the doubt to assume that he can trade Liles. You just have to allow, for a second or two, that he might know as much about running a hockey team as you do.

 

[Deebo]

Bigger question, for me, is "will we be able to match?"

Fraser's in arbitration, and, given his Group, I think the Leafs have to pay him what he's awarded (i.e. they can't walk away and make him UFA). He might get $1M, but even that's no sure thing given what evidence the arbitrators look at. But let's say $ 1M. The team's down to to $9.3M for 3 forwards. One will be Kadri. Say he gets $3.3M, and we're at $6M. Say the other's Colborne with a ~10% raise to $1M, and the last is some plug at the league minimum ($500k?), and now you've got $4.5M for both Gunnarson and Franson.

There are plenty of ways this ends with the Leafs losing at least one of Colborne, Kadri, Franson, and Gunnarson. The only way out of this tight spot is to trade salary away -- Liles, one hopes -- and not take much back. Maybe send a prospect along with him?

Until that happens, it doesn't matter whether the Leafs would match offer sheets. They really can't.

They can match anything they want, since they're allowed to go over the cap by 10% in the offseason. If they are forced over the cap by offersheets, then they can make the move for Liles.

Fraser has reportedly filed for arbitration, yet to see that confirmed, but the vast majority of players who file for arbitration never even get to a hearing. Last summer, there were no arbitration hearings.

Also, the 10.3M in capspace that you started the calculation with already has the plug forward at the minimum included, Trevor Smith.

 

[mr grieves]

2. 8 times in the last 7 years, and the money that could be offered to the Leafs RFAs needn't even exceed what they'd get from a very team-friendly arbitrator to screw with the team's cap situation. I don't think 29 other teams are going to help the Dave Nonis sign Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarson, and Cody Franson for below value.

Just for the record, the answer is once. Not 8. One time in the last 8 years did a team actually sign a player to an offer sheet that wasn't matched.

That "wasn't matched" makes for a distinction without a difference here. The Leafs can't match even a not-very-inflationary $4M offer on Kadri and manage to sign Franson and Gunnarson. Without Liles's cap space, the 5 RFAs aren't coming back -- and, if he gets to arbitration, it's not likely Fraser's the one we're losing.

3. I already said Liles would need to move to make the above no problem at all. Maybe Nonis does have a standing offer. Maybe he encourages another RFA go to arbitration so another buyout window opens and he can ditch Liles that way. Either way, we'd need to give him the benefit of the doubt.

You really don't need to give Nonis the benefit of the doubt to assume that he can trade Liles. You just have to allow, for a second or two, that he might know as much about running a hockey team as you do.
[/quote]

Again, the spirit and purpose of a discussion board is to second guess the coach and GM. If "well, are you, sir, an NHL GM?" is the scratch we had to come up to, there'd be very little discussion here.

He can know worlds more about running a hockey team than I do -- and he does -- and still poorly prioritize the team's needs and screw up its roster.

 

[Kin]

That "wasn't matched" makes for a distinction without a difference here.

No, you just have to have a reasonable familiarity with how the process works to see the difference. As you've pointed out, the returns on RFA compensation when you're talking about 2-3.5 or so million dollar players is very low. That's why, in the history of the current RFA system, the very few instances where teams have actually offered contracts to RFA's with the actual purposes of signing them(as opposed to, say, the great big neon "Eff You" to Vancouver that St. Louis signing Bernier was) the team's have chosen to match and, if they still needed to clear cap space, looked elsewhere to do it. The Blackhawks, for instance, chose to match the offer sheet to Hjarlmasson(and really, in the last 8 years the Hjarlmasson offer sheet is the only one that's really comparable to the one you assume teams will be lining up to give any one of the three Leafs) and shop guys like Byfuglien, Ladd and Versteeg.

For instance, which of these two options do you suppose is more attractive to the Leafs, a second round pick as RFA compensation for Kadri or dealing Kulemin to the highest bidder? While there's a possibility that the Leafs may have to make hard roster choices(a possibility Nonis would have been well aware of) the likelihood of that choice being "We'll lose a talented young player for almost nothing" is basically nil.

Again, the spirit and purpose of a discussion board is to second guess the coach and GM. If "well, are you, sir, an NHL GM?" is the scratch we had to come up to, there'd be very little discussion here.

And like I said, criticizing the validity of these moves is perfectly legitimate from a hockey perspective. Assuming that Dave Nonis isn't fully aware of the cap situation his team is in, that he doesn't have a plan for how everything is going to fit under the cap, that he would sign Clarkson without thinking about these things....that's not just "I don't think Bozak answers the problem at center" that's "I don't think Nonis knows how to run a hockey team".

 

[Redleaf]

A nice summation of the changes so far this off season....

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/07/05/make-no-mistake-these-are-randy-carlyles-maple-leafs

 

[mr grieves]

A nice summation of the changes so far this off season....

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/07/05/make-no-mistake-these-are-randy-carlyles-maple-leafs

It's somewhat less of a summary than an editorial. And it's by Steve Simmons.

 

[Redleaf]

A nice summation of the changes so far this off season....

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/07/05/make-no-mistake-these-are-randy-carlyles-maple-leafs

It's somewhat less of a summary than an editorial. And it's by Steve Simmons.

Is that you Nik? I guess, and correct. Lets call it a breakdown. Is that conducive enough? I'm actually growing into a fan of the off season moves. I think most fans will probably see it that way once the season kicks in. We'll see I guess.

 

[mr grieves]

A nice summation of the changes so far this off season....

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/07/05/make-no-mistake-these-are-randy-carlyles-maple-leafs

It's somewhat less of a summary than an editorial. And it's by Steve Simmons.

Is that you Nik? I guess, and correct. Lets call it a breakdown. Is that conducive enough? I'm actually growing into a fan of the off season moves. I think most fans will probably see it that way once the season kicks in. We'll see I guess.

Well, after Grabo was bought out I said, "they're better be an upgrade at center. If it's just for Bozak, it's better be at $1.5m cap savings, so the team can address its pressing needs on the top 4-D, RW, and for depth grinders that can shutdown forwards. If Grabo's money is cleared just to make way for Bozak's and Clarkson's money and term, they won't make the playoffs."

So, I guess I should stick with that. Although if Jonathan Bernier is the lights out superstar management thinks he is -- or if Reimer is that to hold his job -- they might.

 

[hockeyfan1]

A nice summation of the changes so far this off season....

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/07/05/make-no-mistake-these-are-randy-carlyles-maple-leafs

It's somewhat less of a summary than an editorial. And it's by Steve Simmons.

Is that you Nik? I guess, and correct. Lets call it a breakdown. Is that conducive enough? I'm actually growing into a fan of the off season moves. I think most fans will probably see it that way once the season kicks in. We'll see I guess.

Quite possibly Steve Simmons' best column yet.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Quite possibly Steve Simmons' best column yet.

I thought that as well, however it doesn't make me like him any more.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Quite possibly Steve Simmons' best column yet.

I thought that as well, however it doesn't make me like him any more.

I'd rather read the back of a shampoo bottle than Simmons.