Hurricanes @ Leafs - Oct. 17th, 7:00pm - LeafsTV, SN 590

[GhostofPotvin29]

Was kinda hoping Bernier would get this one. Reimer wasn't very good against Carolina last year (3.50 GAA, .885 Save% in two games), not that that matters now, I guess.

It feels like even though CAR has been pretty bad the last couple of yrs the Leafs really struggle against them. I don't think it will be an easy game.

I get that feeling too.  I never like playing Carolina.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

maybe things seem extra defensive right now because this stuff is relatively new.. (and i'd say both sides are seemingly a little on edge about it) but over the long run i see this being the same deal. 

But I think the problem, from my perspective anyway, is that while this stuff is relatively new in a hockey sense the idea of using stats to look at sports in a fresh way isn't. The people advocating Corsi aren't Bill James in 1983, we live in a post-Moneyball world. Hell we live in a post Moneyball: The Movie world. The idea that people are inherently resistant to that kind of analysis doesn't really ring true.

And for someone like me, the problem I have with it isn't that it's new or that I don't understand it or I don't like numbers, it's that because I know about the ongoing development in using numbers to analyze sports it seems like the people who are going in whole hog in this one area are essentially ignoring lessons learned in other sports on the matter. Things like Corsi has the exact same flaws that a lot of the early basketball metrics had where they tried to baseball-ize analysis and come to pretty specific conclusions from the raw data in spreadsheets which doesn't really work for a sport where five people are constantly involved in the play on both offense and defense. It's only when analysis in that sport moved away from that and towards the study of tape and grading plays and accounting for each individual action on the court that things really began to take hold.

That revolution happened already. What I'm seeing in hockey stats doesn't seem problematic because it's so new, it's because it seems like a regression.

What i meant by that was simply that both sides may feel like there is more to arguing over this then they do say +/- is because it's relatively new to the conversation in hockey as a whole.  Also this is obviously a simplification/generalization that won't encompass every individual that partakes in the conversation. 

I myself don't think I have enough of a handle on the math to really have a real dog in this fight.  Without any stats I think just from watching the games I would have come to the conclusion that the leafs aren't as good as their record.  Though i have to say, i don't ever remember seeing so much hand-wringing over a 6-1 start.  Can only imagine what we'd be looking now if it was a 1-6 start.  (that last part not being directed at you..just my general feeling from the posts/articles at large)

 

[Kin]

What i meant by that was simply that both sides may feel like there is more to arguing over this then they do say +/- is because it's relatively new to the conversation in hockey as a whole.

Yeah, that's probably true but I still don't think the central debate is "numbers are good" vs. "numbers are bad". I think it's "this number is good" vs. "this number is bad" which, I think, is going to happen any time someone introduces a flawed metric into the discussion regardless of the general acceptance of statistical analysis in a sport.

Though i have to say, i don't ever remember seeing so much hand-wringing over a 6-1 start.  Can only imagine what we'd be looking now if it was a 1-6 start.  (that last part not being directed at you..just my general feeling from the posts/articles at large)

Well that I definitely agree with. Especially as it relates to some of the more specific criticisms of the way Carlyle has put the lineup together.

 

[LittleHockeyFan]

JVR has back spasms.

poor guy, I know how that feels, and his are probably worse than what I suffer through.

He needs to stop hanging around with Lupul, also a back spasm sufferer

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Komisarek scratched for Jay Harrison seems pretty crazy to me.

 

[Kessel Run]

GDT looks great!

 

[Redleaf]

I'd happily trade away a win tonight for one on Saturday against the Hawks. Somehow I don't see them wining both.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

I'd happily trade away a win tonight for one on Saturday against the Hawks. Somehow I don't see them wining both.

in that case i might take this one and not have that one..rather than having to wonder if that's a two game losing streak

 

[proteus2000]

I'd happily trade away a win tonight for one on Saturday against the Hawks. Somehow I don't see them wining both.

in that case i might take this one and not have that one..rather than having to wonder if that's a two game losing streak

If they lose tonite the Leafs could quickly go from a great start (6-1) to a pretty good start with question marks (6-4) as chicago and anaheim will provide two tough tests.

 

[Kessel Run]

I'd happily trade away a win tonight for one on Saturday against the Hawks. Somehow I don't see them wining both.

Well a loss against the Blackhawks is easier to swallow than a loss against the Hurricanes, who just don't impress me, so lets take it tonight!

 

[freer]

I'd happily trade away a win tonight for one on Saturday against the Hawks. Somehow I don't see them wining both.

Well a loss against the Blackhawks is easier to swallow than a loss against the Hurricanes, who just don't impress me, so lets take it tonight!

So much negativety here. They are going win. That is all.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Mark Masters @markhmasters
For the record, Hurricanes using 'Wake Me Up' by Avicii as their pump-up/victory song

 

[Redleaf]

I'd happily trade away a win tonight for one on Saturday against the Hawks. Somehow I don't see them wining both.

Well a loss against the Blackhawks is easier to swallow than a loss against the Hurricanes, who just don't impress me, so lets take it tonight!

So much negativety here. They are going win. That is all.

It's not negativity, its guarded optimism.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

I'd happily trade away a win tonight for one on Saturday against the Hawks. Somehow I don't see them wining both.

in that case i might take this one and not have that one..rather than having to wonder if that's a two game losing streak

If they lose tonite the Leafs could quickly go from a great start (6-1) to a pretty good start with question marks (6-4) as chicago and anaheim will provide two tough tests.

and even if they did it wouldn't be the end of  the world...

I think if i had of offered you a six and four start at the kick off of the season you would have taken it.  Especially with the Clarkson suspension already in place.  That's not to mention Kulemin, McLaren and Fraser have been out for a good chunk of that time.  And yes there would be panic in leaf land if that came to pass but there would also be hope as that's when we'd start to get bodies back.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

So....Reimer or Anderson tonight for fantasy (sounds weird but you know what I mean)?

 

[proteus2000]

I'd happily trade away a win tonight for one on Saturday against the Hawks. Somehow I don't see them wining both.

in that case i might take this one and not have that one..rather than having to wonder if that's a two game losing streak

If they lose tonite the Leafs could quickly go from a great start (6-1) to a pretty good start with question marks (6-4) as chicago and anaheim will provide two tough tests.

and even if they did it wouldn't be the end of  the world...

I think if i had of offered you a six and four start at the kick off of the season you would have taken it.  Especially with the Clarkson suspension already in place.  That's not to mention Kulemin, McLaren and Fraser have been out for a good chunk of that time.  And yes there would be panic in leaf land if that came to pass but there would also be hope as that's when we'd start to get bodies back.

I would surely have taken 6-4 with the suspension, not to mention the injuries that have occurred since. Leafs are on such a high that it is unreasonable to expect them to maintain it for a long time; As they already have 6 wins however I just hope that they can maintain it enough to get Clarkson back with 14-16 points in the bank.

 

[Bullfrog]

Curse you, LeafsTV! I'm stuck in a hotel in Ottawa and can't stream a game on my crappy laptop with crappy internet connection.

 

[iwas11in67]

Leafs by 2.

 

[LittleHockeyFan]

Oh. No??.

 

[drummond]

just great,reims down