Idiocracy
- Thread starter Highlander
- Start date
hockeyfan1
New member
Looks like the media and the pollsters in general, may have lost some credibility here. Not only did they all underestimate Trump winning the Republican nomination a year ago, but again, the same mistake was made in their predictions and most importantly, projections in determining the eventual President-elect.
In winning, Trump has practically thrown pie in their faces, especially CNN who had him cast as the devil's advocate in a suit. It's pretty obvious no one saw this victory coming, much less expected it. It happened. What's done, is now done.
Everybody was wrong. Again.
When Election Day dawned, almost all the pollsters, analytics nerds and political insiders in the country had Hillary Clinton waltzing into the White House.
By the time polls had closed nationwide on Tuesday night, those projections had been left in shambles ? just like the ones a year ago that all-but ruled out the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican Party?s presidential nomination.
The Republican nominee?s surprisingly strong performance, which left the race on a razor?s edge at the publication of this story, seemed to at least partly validate his claims that many polls ?just put out phony numbers.?
And it left pollsters and operatives struggling to explain how everyone had been so far off. There was too great a belief that demographics are destiny, and that demographics would lead to a certain outcome,? he said. ?The reality turned out to be much different that."
?The pollsters have lost a lot of credibility and won't be believed on anything soon," said Jonathan Barnett, a Republican National Committeeman from Arkansas who supported Trump. "The way they poll doesn't work anymore.
Some pointed to the possibility of ?hidden Trump voters,? who were embarrassed to admit even anonymously to pollsters that they planned to support Trump.
?The very premise of polling is based on the idea that voters will be completely honest with total strangers,? said veteran GOP operative Ned Ryun, who runs a grassroots group called American Majority and had announced his intent to run for Republican National Committee chairman if Trump lost.
Others pointed to the surge in momentum Trump received when the FBI announced 11 days before the election that it was reviewing new evidence related to its investigation into the handling of sensitive information by Clinton and her aides at the State Department.
But operatives on both sides of the aisle agreed the damage was done.
They pointed out that Trump was out-performing projections in states that had minimal early voting, such as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
?The bad headlines hurt her this past week,? said conservative operative Brendan Steinhauser, a staunch Trump critic. ?Trump had the momentum and the enthusiasm at just the right time.
nd the Republican National Committee?s investment over the past three years in its ground game, once regarded as a significant liability, was getting renewed attention as Trump?s electoral vote count mounted.
While Trump?s campaign lacked anywhere close to the field staff and offices maintained Clinton?s operation, the RNC had worked to make up the difference, funding 315 field offices staffed by 6,012 paid employees and fellows.
Pro-Trump operatives argued that even when some polls hinted at Trump?s strength, it was ignored or explained away by the media and analysts.
?Most of the press and folks in DC were science deniers when it came to this election,? said veteran GOP operative Curt Anderson, an adviser to a pro-Trump super PAC. ?Even in the face of polls that showed it very close, they all said that Trump had almost no chance. It was because they couldn?t imagine it happening.?
He added that ?they are in a bubble, and that bubble has just been burst."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/how-did-everyone-get-2016-wrong-presidential-election-231036
In winning, Trump has practically thrown pie in their faces, especially CNN who had him cast as the devil's advocate in a suit. It's pretty obvious no one saw this victory coming, much less expected it. It happened. What's done, is now done.
Everybody was wrong. Again.
When Election Day dawned, almost all the pollsters, analytics nerds and political insiders in the country had Hillary Clinton waltzing into the White House.
By the time polls had closed nationwide on Tuesday night, those projections had been left in shambles ? just like the ones a year ago that all-but ruled out the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican Party?s presidential nomination.
The Republican nominee?s surprisingly strong performance, which left the race on a razor?s edge at the publication of this story, seemed to at least partly validate his claims that many polls ?just put out phony numbers.?
And it left pollsters and operatives struggling to explain how everyone had been so far off. There was too great a belief that demographics are destiny, and that demographics would lead to a certain outcome,? he said. ?The reality turned out to be much different that."
?The pollsters have lost a lot of credibility and won't be believed on anything soon," said Jonathan Barnett, a Republican National Committeeman from Arkansas who supported Trump. "The way they poll doesn't work anymore.
Some pointed to the possibility of ?hidden Trump voters,? who were embarrassed to admit even anonymously to pollsters that they planned to support Trump.
?The very premise of polling is based on the idea that voters will be completely honest with total strangers,? said veteran GOP operative Ned Ryun, who runs a grassroots group called American Majority and had announced his intent to run for Republican National Committee chairman if Trump lost.
Others pointed to the surge in momentum Trump received when the FBI announced 11 days before the election that it was reviewing new evidence related to its investigation into the handling of sensitive information by Clinton and her aides at the State Department.
But operatives on both sides of the aisle agreed the damage was done.
They pointed out that Trump was out-performing projections in states that had minimal early voting, such as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
?The bad headlines hurt her this past week,? said conservative operative Brendan Steinhauser, a staunch Trump critic. ?Trump had the momentum and the enthusiasm at just the right time.
nd the Republican National Committee?s investment over the past three years in its ground game, once regarded as a significant liability, was getting renewed attention as Trump?s electoral vote count mounted.
While Trump?s campaign lacked anywhere close to the field staff and offices maintained Clinton?s operation, the RNC had worked to make up the difference, funding 315 field offices staffed by 6,012 paid employees and fellows.
Pro-Trump operatives argued that even when some polls hinted at Trump?s strength, it was ignored or explained away by the media and analysts.
?Most of the press and folks in DC were science deniers when it came to this election,? said veteran GOP operative Curt Anderson, an adviser to a pro-Trump super PAC. ?Even in the face of polls that showed it very close, they all said that Trump had almost no chance. It was because they couldn?t imagine it happening.?
He added that ?they are in a bubble, and that bubble has just been burst."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/how-did-everyone-get-2016-wrong-presidential-election-231036
hockeyfan1
New member
How will Trump and his policies (and beliefs) on issues related to the environment, defence & security (NATO, NORAD), trade (NAFTA, TPP), foreign policy, etc., affect Canada, for better or for worse?
Read on:
http://globalnews.ca/news/3051049/what-president-donald-trump-will-mean-for-canada/
Read on:
http://globalnews.ca/news/3051049/what-president-donald-trump-will-mean-for-canada/
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Never seen a more unqualified candidate and the people around him are just as insane and scary. Can't even fathom electing a more loathsome human being.
It's just insane how we up here voted in Trudeau just a year ago when he ran on almost the polar opposite campaign Trump did. At least when it came to things like love/fear, LGBT rights, womens rights, Muslims immigrants/Syrian refugees, being a decent human being.
TimKerr
New member
This is a horrible result but please do not underestimate people's feelings towards Hillary. The fact that Trump won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and is so close in Michigan. All those male white blue-collar workers flipped from Obama to Trump.
Everyone says this election is about racism but I wonder if it is more about sexism. They could have fathom a black President but not a female one.
Everyone says this election is about racism but I wonder if it is more about sexism. They could have fathom a black President but not a female one.
Boston Leaf
New member
As an American who voted in this election I am sickened and saddened. I am far from a Hillary supporter too.. But I didn't want to waste a vote or write one in.. so extremely reluctantly I voted for HC. I just couldn't vote for a guy who has said and done so many awful things and continuously put fear in Americans...I do not for a second think of moving or any of that crazy stuff. I still love my country.. but am really concerned of what the future holds right now...
I have three kids, ages 6, 8, and 11. The two oldest ones went to bed stressed that Trump might win, and they woke up scared about what is going to happen in the world.
In the 80's, when Reagan was running for his second term, I was around their age. The stories that got told were that if Reagan got elected, that world war three would happen. He got elected, and while that immediate result did not happen, one could argue that a lot of Reagans policies in that second term lead to the problems that are occurring in the middle east now. In thinking about that, we shouldn't be worried about what is going to happen immediately, we should worry about the state that the world is going to be in in 10 years.
In the 80's, when Reagan was running for his second term, I was around their age. The stories that got told were that if Reagan got elected, that world war three would happen. He got elected, and while that immediate result did not happen, one could argue that a lot of Reagans policies in that second term lead to the problems that are occurring in the middle east now. In thinking about that, we shouldn't be worried about what is going to happen immediately, we should worry about the state that the world is going to be in in 10 years.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
America's Brexit.
Turns out if you give bigoted racists an option, they'll check over their shoulder and vote with their tiny mind.
This morning I'm trying to take a deep breath and find any potential positives going forward.
As half of an interracial marriage in Texas, I'm dealing with a scared spouse and a little mixed race child who faces an uncertain future.
I think it's probably the best we try to move, we already get a lot of disapproving looks now and honestly I'm not sure I could keep the red mist at bay if any of these small minded fools who feel emboldened by this, open their mouth and cast their aspersions our way.
Turns out if you give bigoted racists an option, they'll check over their shoulder and vote with their tiny mind.
This morning I'm trying to take a deep breath and find any potential positives going forward.
As half of an interracial marriage in Texas, I'm dealing with a scared spouse and a little mixed race child who faces an uncertain future.
I think it's probably the best we try to move, we already get a lot of disapproving looks now and honestly I'm not sure I could keep the red mist at bay if any of these small minded fools who feel emboldened by this, open their mouth and cast their aspersions our way.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf said:
You know what I think this highlights for me, and why I find this so disappointing is that for years it felt like the human race was making progress towards acceptance. For years it felt that we were starting to reconcile some of the bad things from our past. This morning highlighted that there hasn't been any progress made really, and the same old problems exist today that did 30, 40, 100 years ago. We think that we are becoming a more civilized entity, but really all that is happening is that the problems are being shoved under the rug, and all it takes is an individual to come along and uplift that rug to expose all the problems again.
The sad thing about all of this for me is that it cements the idea that you can't fight craziness.
http://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000004708101/hillary-clinton-concession-speech-live-stream.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
Clinton's concession speech
Clinton's concession speech
Bill looks absolutely demolished. I honestly can't believe that Hilary is as composed as she is. I struggle to talk about this in real life and like most people here (Canadian, white, male) this effects me the least.
Obama said something in his interview with Samantha Bee last week in regards to what he wants his legacy to be that's really stuck with me. This was his answer:
"I feel confident that we can build on the progress we've made around climate change, clean energy, healthcare, making the economy work better for everybody... all that feels good to me but the thing that I care most about is making sure that there's a generation of young people who are following me and Michelle and if we can look back 20 years from now and say to ourselves, wow there are a whole bunch of people who were inspired by what we did and are doing it even better, then we'll feel pretty good."
I hope to god that still happens.
"I feel confident that we can build on the progress we've made around climate change, clean energy, healthcare, making the economy work better for everybody... all that feels good to me but the thing that I care most about is making sure that there's a generation of young people who are following me and Michelle and if we can look back 20 years from now and say to ourselves, wow there are a whole bunch of people who were inspired by what we did and are doing it even better, then we'll feel pretty good."
I hope to god that still happens.