Is this the turning point???
- Thread starter nutman
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Corn Flake
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Zee said:
Last night he had a few chances he wristed in vs. attempting the big shot. Maybe the coaches and Dion are realizing this. Also, watching Fransen who is the best on the team at getting shots through almost always wrists it in.
During the game the other night, I had a look at missed shots among the league leaders. I didn't run numbers so my statement may not be absolutely precise. My impression from glancing at the missed shots stats among the dmen shot leaders vs shots taken was that over the last couple of seasons, Dion was roughly in line with the others - not way off.
Having said that, the snap shot like Franson takes is kind of like a punch shot in golf - I think it's more accurate because there's less rotation in the swing - the blade can stay perpendicular to the target a little longer. The wrist shot is also more accurate though it's hard to get much effective velocity on that from the point (but it can be tipped easier at a lower velocity). I think Franson's snap shot is the best or the shot I'd use the most if I played NHL D. It's very useful and Franson gets exceptional velocity on it relative to others who use the snap shot. Like Kessel's shot it tends to dip more and cause goalies some misses because it's trajectory is not as much of a straight line in the vertical plane.
Having said that, the snap shot like Franson takes is kind of like a punch shot in golf - I think it's more accurate because there's less rotation in the swing - the blade can stay perpendicular to the target a little longer. The wrist shot is also more accurate though it's hard to get much effective velocity on that from the point (but it can be tipped easier at a lower velocity). I think Franson's snap shot is the best or the shot I'd use the most if I played NHL D. It's very useful and Franson gets exceptional velocity on it relative to others who use the snap shot. Like Kessel's shot it tends to dip more and cause goalies some misses because it's trajectory is not as much of a straight line in the vertical plane.
nutman said:
I do think he had a bit of an accuracy problem - I've commented on it before. And he still does some. But it surprised me that a lot of dmen miss about 1/3 of the time.
Now because Dion pinches in or skates in, he probably benefits from that statistically vs that guy who just pounds away from the point. And there are some teams like the Wings who miss intentionally (a set play) to get a rebound off the back boards.
The point is that I expected to see something fairly horrid for Phaneuf's accuracy relative to other dmen and I didn't see it obviously at a glance. Maybe a closer look at the numbers would reveal something.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
I suspect he's been worse this year in terms of accuracy, especially on the PP.
Ok, so I ran some of the numbers I glanced at.
I selected all dmen who took 200 or more shots plus missed shots in a season. That got me a little over 30 dmen - the top point men for each team very roughly - dmen doing a similar role to Dion. I then calculated the % of the attempted shots that hit the goal.
In 2012, Phaneuf was 17th of 33 (average) at 69.8% (high was 74.5% Eric Johnson, low was Goligoski at 62.2% - there is a bit of an exponential drop off from the very top dmen).
In 2011, Phaneuf was 24th of 37 (slightly below average) at 66.9% (high was 72.7% Chara, low was Jack Johnson at 59.3%.
Like the big driver in golf, my sense is the guys who really blast it tend to suffer some in accuracy (I'm also sure there are exceptions to that like Chara). Given that, although there's room for improvement, I can't conclude Phaneuf is awful at hitting the net relative to those doing a similar job in this league. Given his shot velocity, I'd say he's probably about average - maybe slightly less than average in general accuracy (ignoring that he pinches more than average).
Now this season, it's tough because we don't have a very reliable sampling of data as there have been so few games.
In 2013, from the 37 who have taken 22 or more shots, Phaneuf was again 24th of 37 (slightly below average) at 63.0%. But there have been too few games to draw much conclusion from those stats.
I selected all dmen who took 200 or more shots plus missed shots in a season. That got me a little over 30 dmen - the top point men for each team very roughly - dmen doing a similar role to Dion. I then calculated the % of the attempted shots that hit the goal.
In 2012, Phaneuf was 17th of 33 (average) at 69.8% (high was 74.5% Eric Johnson, low was Goligoski at 62.2% - there is a bit of an exponential drop off from the very top dmen).
In 2011, Phaneuf was 24th of 37 (slightly below average) at 66.9% (high was 72.7% Chara, low was Jack Johnson at 59.3%.
Like the big driver in golf, my sense is the guys who really blast it tend to suffer some in accuracy (I'm also sure there are exceptions to that like Chara). Given that, although there's room for improvement, I can't conclude Phaneuf is awful at hitting the net relative to those doing a similar job in this league. Given his shot velocity, I'd say he's probably about average - maybe slightly less than average in general accuracy (ignoring that he pinches more than average).
Now this season, it's tough because we don't have a very reliable sampling of data as there have been so few games.
In 2013, from the 37 who have taken 22 or more shots, Phaneuf was again 24th of 37 (slightly below average) at 63.0%. But there have been too few games to draw much conclusion from those stats.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
cw said:
Thanks for this. Rational.
leafplasma
New member
Bullfrog said:
Thanks for the breakdown CW. The discrepancy may also be attributed to what Bullfrog is saying. It would be nice to see what percentage of shots from the point are slapshots in relation to all the top dman shooters in the league. If a guy like Chara has a higher percentage of shots that make it through due to the fact they are not all slapshots this would tend to show that Phaneuf's slapshot is closer in accuracy to that of Chara's slapshots would it not?
leafplasma said:
I don't think they keep those stats - not that I'm aware of. They try to describe the shot in the play by play records of the game
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20122013/PL020111.HTM
EV 0:57 19:03 SHOT BOS ONGOAL - #33 CHARA, Wrist, Off. Zone, 58 ft.
so if someone wanted to crawl through all the shots various dmen make (and maybe from where as accuracy would have a relationship to the distance the shot must travel) ...
In his full seasons since the the lockout, while with the Leafs, Kaberle was 72.5% on goal (near the top of the league) and averaged about 24th (of the top dmen) in shots on goal (for the media who whined about the guy not shooting). McCabe wasn't far behind.
And so the key with Phaneuf to me has been in part his decision making on what type of shot to deliver and when. I believe I've heard an interview with Chara where if there are Bruins in front of the goal, he often doesn't blast away - so he doesn't hurt them and so he gives them something easier to tip - while making sure he gets it on goal. I'm not convinced Phaneuf has been as savvy. His emotions seem to get the better of him and he'll blast away wildly sometimes.
A flimsy shot on goal when guys are in front is better than a head hunter that grossly misses the net.
As was observed last season and this, Phaneuf seems to be getting better at that and opting to use something other than a boomer to get the puck on net.
leafplasma
New member
cw said:
Amazes me that they actually log all of that info and in real time even. It really is quite remarkable when you think about it. Stats have come along way over the history of the game.
leafplasma said:
Folks do grab that data and parse through it or get it from the NHL to do data analysis. If you google it, you might find something. But I haven't seen specifically what you mentioned. I have seen some general shot analysis, type of shot and where they go, etc.