John Tavares is a Maple Leaf

[Mack674]

I can't though, it's good fortune that Tavares chose the Leafs but I fear if we gloat too much karma will bite us in the ass and maybe Matthews leaves to Arizona when it's his turn.

If Matthews decides that after 9 years here he's got a burning desire to play in Arizona than best of luck to him but I think it's important to draw not pretend that would be a mirror image of what happened here.

The Islanders, during most of Tavares' time there, were a mess of an organization. They lacked stable ownership and, really, a modern arena. They made some pretty terrible decisions on top of that like moving to Brooklyn, then deciding to unmove and split their time between Brooklyn and Nassau. To top all of that off it was their choice to sign Tavares to a well under-market 5 year extension.

So if Matthews gets offered, essentially, the same thing that Eichel or McDavid got and decides he only wants five years I think we'd have to prepare ourselves for the reality that he's thinking about his future and doesn't necessarily see playing for the Leafs for the entirety of his career as a certainty.

What happened with Tavares didn't just happen out of the blue and if Matthews makes a similar decision it won't just happen out of the blue either.

This. As soon as he was drafted I thought cool - but hes American and from Arizona, pretty good chance down the road he might want to go home if the price is right.

I mean, I would.

Thanks for drafting me and all, but its been XX years. I lived there my whole life, my family and friends are there, all the support and people that helped me get where I am today etc.

It would be a bummer but not at all surprising and I certainly wouldnt go medieval lunatic and start calling him a traitor and burning jerseys.

 

[Kin]

This. As soon as he was drafted I thought cool - but hes American and from Arizona, pretty good chance down the road he might want to go home if the price is right.

I actually don't really agree with this. While we're all very happy with Tavares coming here I think it's still important to remember that what Tavares did here is still really unusual and, more than that, that his decision wasn't just "I'm from Toronto, I want to play there" even if that's what makes for a compelling narrative.

I guess some people don't but I really believe Tavares when he said that even with everything compelling about leaving the Islanders for the Leafs it was still a very difficult and emotional decision for him. He broke one way on it, sure, but we've seen countless guys break the other way.

So while I wouldn't bet my life on Matthews being a Leaf for life I'd actually be incredibly surprised if he left the team at the same age Tavares did and if he does, I really don't think there's a compelling reason to think it would be for Arizona.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I guess some people don't but I really believe Tavares when he said that even with everything compelling about leaving the Islanders for the Leafs it was still a very difficult and emotional decision for him. He broke one way on it, sure, but we've seen countless guys break the other way.

Agreed. This is actually the exception that proves the rule.

I don't think too many people would argue that the NYI org has been the most dysfunctional franchise over the last decade; and considering 6 teams were throwing quite a bit at Tavares (and probably at least 12 more teams, if he took more interviews) - and the fact it came down to only one team that could tempt him away from leaving - it definitely validates the rarity of likelyhood of reoccurance.

 

[Mack674]

This. As soon as he was drafted I thought cool - but hes American and from Arizona, pretty good chance down the road he might want to go home if the price is right.

I actually don't really agree with this. While we're all very happy with Tavares coming here I think it's still important to remember that what Tavares did here is still really unusual and, more than that, that his decision wasn't just "I'm from Toronto, I want to play there" even if that's what makes for a compelling narrative.

I guess some people don't but I really believe Tavares when he said that even with everything compelling about leaving the Islanders for the Leafs it was still a very difficult and emotional decision for him. He broke one way on it, sure, but we've seen countless guys break the other way.

So while I wouldn't bet my life on Matthews being a Leaf for life I'd actually be incredibly surprised if he left the team at the same age Tavares did and if he does, I really don't think there's a compelling reason to think it would be for Arizona.

I guess I meant more along the lines of "if it were me". It is an anomaly that a guy does this, but there is a case there for compelling reasons to at least consider "going home" versus say, I dunno Edmonton or something.

I think he would have liked to play here but even from last year this team looks alot better than it did.

Being from Toronto isnt the only factor im sure - but is a factor, is all im saying - which is why I wouldnt be totally shocked it Matthews or anybody decided to leave.

Niedermayer left to play with his brother, but Anaheim being a pretty good team at the time didnt hurt either.

Thats the other caveat, it the team is garbage nobody will want to jump at going there - hometown or not.

If you took the leafs from 3 years ago and put them in yesterdays sweepstakes id guess theres close to 0% chance he comes here. Toronto is good, babcock and shanahan are better, matthews and marner even better still.

I watched the presser, I believe him when he says it was difficult. Its a big change.

 

[Kin]

Being from Toronto isnt the only factor im sure - but is a factor, is all im saying - which is why I wouldnt be totally shocked it Matthews or anybody decided to leave.

I guess the way that I would put it is that if a star player leaves the team that drafted him voluntarily I wouldn't be shocked if a desire to play closer to home influenced where he went but generally speaking I would still be shocked if a star player chose to leave the team that drafted him at all.

There's just so much financial incentive for a guy to stick around with who drafted him that I really do think it takes a situation like the Islanders where just about everything has to go wrong, both on and off the ice, for it even to be a realistic possibility.

 

[Mot the Barber]

Tavares made a great decision and I hope it inspires others to come "home" since there are quite a few players that are from Ontario and were fans of the Leafs growing up. 

 

[Mack674]

Being from Toronto isnt the only factor im sure - but is a factor, is all im saying - which is why I wouldnt be totally shocked it Matthews or anybody decided to leave.

I guess the way that I would put it is that if a star player leaves the team that drafted him voluntarily I wouldn't be shocked if a desire to play closer to home influenced where he went but generally speaking I would still be shocked if a star player chose to leave the team that drafted him at all.

There's just so much financial incentive for a guy to stick around with who drafted him that I really do think it takes a situation like the Islanders where just about everything has to go wrong, both on and off the ice, for it even to be a realistic possibility.

Ive never been a stupid-rich multi millionaire , so im only talking out of my ass: but id have to imagine at some point (when you already have 60 or 70 million bucks, US for that matter so 2 billion Canadian) is an extra 6 or 7 million really that big of a deal anymore?

Im sure it matters, but id think 70 million vs 85 million matters alot less when you're already drowning in cash. I would imagine finding a good team you want to play with and win would be a much higher priority

Unless you're ... well wont name names but fill in the blanks lol theres always mercenaries out there.

 

[Mack674]

Tavares made a great decision and I hope it inspires others to come "home" since there are quite a few players that are from Ontario and were fans of the Leafs growing up.

I hope so, I also hope Tavares 'lead by example' to leave money on the table to play in Toronto has a ripple effect on future contract negotiations.

"Well Austin, you know John burned 10 million to come here...." lol

 

[Kin]

Ive never been a stupid-rich multi millionaire , so im only talking out of my ass: but id have to imagine at some point (when you already have 60 or 70 million bucks, US for that matter so 2 billion Canadian) is an extra 6 or 7 million really that big of a deal anymore?

Im sure it matters, but id think 70 million vs 85 million matters alot less when you're already drowning in cash. I would imagine finding a good team you want to play with and win would be a much higher priority

Well, leaving aside that 7 million dollars is still an awful lot of money I'm not really talking about that sort of thing. What I'm talking about is guys who are coming off entry level deals, and as such haven't earned 60 or 70 million yet, negotiating their first deals. What I think we've seen in the past is that those players basically have two choices available to them. Either they take shorter term deals(Tavares, Kane, Toews) that get them to free agency ASAP, which are usually significantly under market value, or they get offered huge, almost market level deals that last the max the way Eichel and McDavid did.

Right? So if Matthews wants a five year deal to get to free agency ASAP he might be looking at, say, a 5 year/40 million dollar offer. If, however, he's committed to signing a max length extension he very well might get an offer somewhere between McDavid and Eichel, or in the 8 years/90 million dollar range.

So you're talking about kids who maybe aren't entirely set for life choosing between guaranteeing themselves 40 million or 90 million. That's a lot of money either way but we haven't seen too many players in that position turning down the bigger offer. That's a tremendous financial incentive.

Sure, when that second deal is up there's less incentive to stick around but by that point they've been on the team 11 years and there are probably huge personal reasons to stick around.

Unless you're ... well wont name names but fill in the blanks lol theres always mercenaries out there.

Who are you referring to?

 

[Mack674]

No one in particular, just pro sports in general. Theres always some guys that will just go where the most money is, period.

 

[Joe S.]

This is all under the assumption that Arizona still has a team by that time.

Besides. Again. Can we just enjoy the moment? If Matthews leaves in 5-7 years so what? Enjoy the tome we have with him on the team while it lasts.

Seriously this thread is so up and down. This is an awesome day and an amazing era we as leafs fans are going into. Enjoy it.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

This. As soon as he was drafted I thought cool - but hes American and from Arizona, pretty good chance down the road he might want to go home if the price is right.

I actually don't really agree with this. While we're all very happy with Tavares coming here I think it's still important to remember that what Tavares did here is still really unusual and, more than that, that his decision wasn't just "I'm from Toronto, I want to play there" even if that's what makes for a compelling narrative.

I guess some people don't but I really believe Tavares when he said that even with everything compelling about leaving the Islanders for the Leafs it was still a very difficult and emotional decision for him. He broke one way on it, sure, but we've seen countless guys break the other way.

So while I wouldn't bet my life on Matthews being a Leaf for life I'd actually be incredibly surprised if he left the team at the same age Tavares did and if he does, I really don't think there's a compelling reason to think it would be for Arizona.

I'd also add that, while Tavares' emphasis on the significance of returning to the team he grew up cheering for may be 100% as important to him as it's been stated, I could also see the possibility that he's played that factor up a little to soften the blow to New York.  It's a lot easier to say to Isles fans that the Leafs offered him something sentimental that the Islanders couldn't match, rather than to bluntly state the obvious:  that the Leafs are a way better organization that's infinitely closer to a Cup.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

The most frustrating part of this signing for me has been the media members who are falling over themselves to play devils advocate about the Leafs lack of defense or even their ability to pay their stars.

There is actual math out there done by fans via cap friendly and the like that show very clearly how this can all be done financially.

It is so unprofessional for those hired to speak about the team to have not done even the most basic research that fans online have done. 

The TMLfans podcast could set them all straight.

 

[mr grieves]

It is so unprofessional for those hired to speak about the team to have not done even the most basic research that fans online have done. 

Although.... if the Nylander negotiation drags out as he wants $7m and the Leafs want less than $6.5m, wouldn't it be smart for a team to try to sign him for, say, $8mx5? Compensation isn't terrible, and, if the Leafs match, you've made it harder for them to re-sign Matthews and Marner without cutting into the depth. 

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I have zero doubt the Leafs would match that and explore other options afterwards.

Offer sheets in the NHL are weird because past a certain point they become cost prohibitive for the team acquiring them too and at that point the compensation on offer is usually worthwhile.

Without Hainsey, Gardiner, Marleau and Horton?s contract the Leafs have a lot of cap room.

My point being no matter the lazy suggestion thrown out there, the Leafs have positioned themselves in a great spot to counter.

 

[mr grieves]

Without Hainsey, Gardiner, Marleau and Horton?s contract the Leafs have a lot of cap room.

My point being no matter the lazy suggestion thrown out there, the Leafs have positioned themselves in a great spot to counter.

Well, Marleau's got a pretty ironclad NMC no? So, there's only one contract there that they'd be able to move without getting worse (Gardiner) or taking stuff back/ attaching assets (as they'd have to for Horton). That $3m would certainly get it done though, I agree.

I generally agree that the Leafs are set up really well to have a handful of stars eating up a lot of cap space. They don't have the middle class contracts that really hurt (well, Zaitsev)... but I guess I'm just trying to think like another GM. Leafs are coming on fast, and I'd be nervous. If there's a way to slow them down, throw sand the gears, I'd look at it.

 

[Kin]

It's a lot easier to say to Isles fans that the Leafs offered him something sentimental that the Islanders couldn't match, rather than to bluntly state the obvious:  that the Leafs are a way better organization that's infinitely closer to a Cup.

I think that's true and I think this sort of underscores another reason why it's hard to see other players like Tavares leaving their teams. For starters, I don't want to say it's easy to build a good team around a guy like him but I also think you have to screw up in a lot of ways not to.

So for example, in 4 of the 5 years after drafting Tavares, the Islanders had picks in the top 5 of the draft. Here's how they did with those picks:

2010: #5 Nino Niederreiter

There were a few really good players on the board(Tarasenko, Skinner, Kuznetsov) but it's not a terrible pick. Problem is they traded him when he was 21 and got a 4th line player like Cal Clutterbuck in return

2011: #5 Ryan Strome

Not a bad player but a frighteningly bad pick. The four picks after him were Zibanejad, Scheifele, Couturier, Hamilton. He's probably the worst pick in the entire top 10 of that draft.

2012: #4 Griffin Reinhart

Again, he may have something of a NHL career but wow was this a whiff. Even if they were only looking for defensemen the guys who went after him in the top 10 included Rielly, Dumba, Lindholm and Trouba. Then the Caps took some guy named Filip Forsberg at 11. They conned an even dumber team out of a pick for Reinhart eventually and that pick became Barzal but still...talk about a wasted opportunity

2014: #5 Michael Dal Collle

Again, a draft where just about everyone in the top 10 looks like they'll have some sort of legit NHL career except for the Islanders pick. Again, if they were looking wing they could have gone Nylander or Ehlers. Even Ritchie and Virtanen look like better picks right now.

The Islanders have some good picks from that era and I get that you could do a "look at who was available at their pick" to any team but man is that a bad run of drafting in the top 5. Even if you want to say it's all luck then it's a terrible run of luck. They probably would have done better with putting the top 10 prospects on a board and throwing darts.

So, yeah, the Islanders being a mess is pretty clearly an issue here and again...I think if a team is going to be bad enough to draft #1 overall they're probably going to have some other high picks and I just think it's tough to imagine messing up the way the Islanders did. Again, just about everything had to break wrong for them for Tavares to be in the situation he was in.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/capfriendly/status/1013924896123088896

I don?t know the CapFriendly person, but I suspect he or she is an awesome person.

 

[Hobbes]

So, yeah, the Islanders being a mess is pretty clearly an issue here and again...I think if a team is going to be bad enough to draft #1 overall they're probably going to have some other high picks and I just think it's tough to imagine messing up the way the Islanders did. Again, just about everything had to break wrong for them for Tavares to be in the situation he was in.

All things considered the Oilers aren't covering themselves with glory. Another 5 years of their futility might see another big name looking for a legitimate opportunity to win a cup.

 

[Kin]

I generally agree that the Leafs are set up really well to have a handful of stars eating up a lot of cap space. They don't have the middle class contracts that really hurt (well, Zaitsev)... but I guess I'm just trying to think like another GM. Leafs are coming on fast, and I'd be nervous. If there's a way to slow them down, throw sand the gears, I'd look at it.

I tried to look at to what extent things would really get sticky for the Leafs before Marleau's contract comes off the book and for the Leafs to really be in trouble I think a few things have to happen:

1. They re-sign Gardiner
2. They can't move Martin
3. The five young guys who need to be re-signed get in excess of 35 million combined.
4. There's almost no cap growth


I looked at things in sort of a worst case scenario way to get that 35 million by the way. My breakdown was 11.5 for Matthews, 8.5 for Marner, 7 for Nylander, 5 for Kapanen and 3 for Johnsson. If you can whittle that down at all the Leafs will be fine for the most part and if you can't then it's really just the one tough year until Marleau's contract comes off the books at which point between cap growth and that expiring deal they'll have 10 million or so to play with/re-sign guys like Dermott.

The Leafs will definitely have to make some hard decisions 4 or 5 years down the line but realistically those decisions will be about guys like Kadri more than any of their top flight guys.