Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
- Thread starter CarltonTheBear
- Start date
List of defencemen who signed deals with an AAV between $1-3.5mil since this most recent offseason: https://www.capfriendly.com/signings/all/all/defense/1-15/1000000-3500000/06012019-12312019
Excluding younger players like Carlo and Sanheim, I think this is a pretty good list of comparables for Holl.
Like I said worst case scenario he drops back down to the 3rd pairing but still gives us reliable minutes there as a RHD. It's been awhile since that 3RHD spot was filled by someone capable of passing a puck. In that case I'd still take him over a lot of sub-$2mil players on that list like Ben Hutton, Connor Carrick, Scott Harrington, Christian Djoos and Mirco Mueller. Plus all the vets like Sekera, Polak, and Coburn.
If his performance/usage continues from what we've seen since Keefe took over, then I think he would be heading into the UFA market in a similar position to guys like Joel Edmundson, Neal Pionk, Ben Chariot and Patrick Nemeth. And those guys all got $3mil or higher on their deals.
So like I said, I think factoring in that the Leafs are sort of taking a risk here by signing him early and without much of a track record I think $2mil is probably a good bet size.
Excluding younger players like Carlo and Sanheim, I think this is a pretty good list of comparables for Holl.
Like I said worst case scenario he drops back down to the 3rd pairing but still gives us reliable minutes there as a RHD. It's been awhile since that 3RHD spot was filled by someone capable of passing a puck. In that case I'd still take him over a lot of sub-$2mil players on that list like Ben Hutton, Connor Carrick, Scott Harrington, Christian Djoos and Mirco Mueller. Plus all the vets like Sekera, Polak, and Coburn.
If his performance/usage continues from what we've seen since Keefe took over, then I think he would be heading into the UFA market in a similar position to guys like Joel Edmundson, Neal Pionk, Ben Chariot and Patrick Nemeth. And those guys all got $3mil or higher on their deals.
So like I said, I think factoring in that the Leafs are sort of taking a risk here by signing him early and without much of a track record I think $2mil is probably a good bet size.
Hobbes
New member
Yeah, based on his recent play and usage (effectively #3-4 RD) I was expecting him to be more in the $2.5-3 range and would only want to sign for 1 or 2 years (betting on himself to get more in the $3-4M range when he came up again at age 30). To me, $2 is a bit of a discount...maybe in exchange for the extra year of job security.
The other thing to bear in mind is 2 years from how, when he's still got 1.5 years left on this deal, he's likely to be an attractive trade chip as long as he remains decent. It's not like there's some massive surplus of steady RHD at this kind of price.
The other thing to bear in mind is 2 years from how, when he's still got 1.5 years left on this deal, he's likely to be an attractive trade chip as long as he remains decent. It's not like there's some massive surplus of steady RHD at this kind of price.
Highlander
Active member
Jeff "Give me a" Finger a break, the guy sucked from the get go. Terrible signing. Holl has earned this, beside Marner needs him to keep the beat for the rhythm section.Frycer14 said:
Frank E said:
I'm with you on that assessment. Holl would be at best a 3rd pair D on a team that is built for a playoff run. I would have thought 1.5m max, but this seems to be par for course of Dubas' contract negotiations thus far. Lou probably would have got him signed for 900k average.
Frank E
Active member
bustaheims said:
Holl has a grand total of 52 NHL games under his belt at 28 years old. I'm not sure you can say that "Holl is significantly better than anyone on that list" at all.
Secondly, I think that spot in the lineup might better be an ELC spot, or a scrapheap signing spot, and not a $2m a year spot.
I'm not really interested in discussing the relative value of bottom pairing d-men that will be available this summer. I'm more disappointed that the Leafs see that 3rd pairing as a place to spend an extra $1m in cap space that they really don't have the luxury of affording. There are going to be some interesting discussions this summer, and this contract doesn't make things any easier.
Kin
New member
Frank E said:
It's probably more likely that they think Holl is better than you do and that they think that sticking to outdated notions of players being "3rd pairing guys" probably doesn't accurately assess their worth.
The Leafs probably aren't going to have the kind of Norris-quality 25+ minute a night defensemen that a lot of other teams have relied on heavily. Accordingly, they're going to need more from their third pairing than other teams might. If Holl does wind up on the third pairing, his pay would probably just reflect that.
herman
Well-known member
Holl has played 52 NHL games. Dubas and Keefe have watched his entire pro career and I think they have a pretty good idea where Holl stands relative to other NHL talent in the league.
Sandin and Liljegren are earmarked already. I don?t see Dermott getting more than a low bridge deal. Martin Marincin is probably coming back to the 6/7 slot for minimum (haha).
Sandin and Liljegren are earmarked already. I don?t see Dermott getting more than a low bridge deal. Martin Marincin is probably coming back to the 6/7 slot for minimum (haha).
Kin
New member
herman said:
Yeah. I know we in North America have this sort of all or nothing attitude where every year there's one winner and 30 ties for last place and there's doing it in the big leagues or nothing else matters but I think we should probably think of player evaluation a little bit more like they do in soccer. Obviously there all of the various leagues aren't of the same quality and so a team in a league like the EPL or Bundesliga won't look at a player's resume in MLS or the Japanese leagues as 1:1 equivalents but they won't dismiss it as nothing either.
The AHL is either the 2nd or 3rd best league in the world and and what a guy does in it will contribute to their evaluation and, accordingly, their value.
Highlander
Active member
Who wouldn't want to play for the Leafs, this is a great gesture as is bringing up Kivihalme for the trip to Minnesota. Dubas staying with Souperman and flying back with him is another great gesture. It would be good to get Mickey under contract as well at this point.herman said:
I think our D is going to round into much better shape when some of our young un's come up next year (or this year if we have more injuries)
By the way Holl is worth 2 million a year. Especially if Barrie is worth 4.5 and can't defend worth a shit.
bustaheims
Active member
Frank E said:
Considering the 'veterans' on that list are largely guys who can't hold on to a spot on an NHL roster, never mind play significant minutes on a regular basis, I'm quite confident I can.