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Leafs 2015/2016 Schedule in 10 game chunks

Interesting numbers guys...thanks for that.

If we're talking about where they're going to end up at the end of the season at the 10 game mark, it's worth discussing which of these guys is actually on pace to be worth anything at the deadline.

We'll agree that the idea was that they'd trade away Matthias, Grabner, Boyes, Parenteau, and Polak.  At this point, only Boyes is scoring at a rate that would make him an interesting acquisition for someone.
 
Frank E said:
We'll agree that the idea was that they'd trade away Matthias, Grabner, Boyes, Parenteau, and Polak.  At this point, only Boyes is scoring at a rate that would make him an interesting acquisition for someone.
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Well, in terms of guys like Matthias and Polak, teams won't necessarily be looking at them as a boost for their offence (especially re: Polak), but rather as defensive players/depth, etc. As for the rest . . . we're not going to get great assets for them since they're not producing, but they could still be guys teams pick up as injury insurance. Instead of 3rd round picks, maybe the Leafs only get 5th round picks instead - or the Leafs use them as a throwaway contract when they pick up larger contracts from other teams, while adding some valuable assets. The fact that they're all on relative inexpensive expiring deals gives the Leafs the ability to be creative with them.
 
CarltonTheBear said:
Patrick said:
There has never been a team that has taken the number of shots the Leafs are on pace to take (even if you factor in some regression) and only shot 6%.
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I know in the past Carolina and New Jersey have had seasons where they posted pretty good possession numbers but just couldn't translate that into goals (and thus wins). New Jersey is obviously a slightly different story but I decided to see how Toronto compared to those Carolina teams.

The Leafs currently have a 6.4% shooting percentage at even-strength. And they're averaging 56.3 shot attempts for per 60 minutes.

The 12/13 Hurricanes shot 7.3% and had 61.6 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

The 13/14 Hurricanes shot 6.8% and had 58.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

The 14/15 Hurricanes shot 6.2% and had 57.3 shot attempts per 60 minutes.

So it's certainly not impossible to have a higher than average shot-attempts for rate and a lower than average shooting percentage. Even if the Leafs current shooting percentage rises it's definitely not going to get as high as the league average. Maybe it creeps up in the 7s, but that's likely it given the talent on this team.
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I said it in another thread, but they look like the 2009-10 Leafs all over again - 52.8 CF%, 4th worst 5v5 SH%, 6th worst 5v5 SV%.
 
gyqMVgs.jpg


I didn't see that coming!
 
That is such ridiculous scheduling.

They played/will play Pittsburgh, Dallas, Winnipeg, Detroit and Washington all in the space of a week, that's more intense than even a playoff schedule.

The NHL really is a clown college.
 
Also, wanted to thank those involved in the discussion yesterday about this being a bottom five team, it was very informative and good natured.

Follow-up question for you:

Is the team in the bottom five before the trade-deadline sell-off?
 
Patrick said:
Is the team in the bottom five before the trade-deadline sell-off?
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I'd say yes. They're icing one of the most talent-poor rosters in the league, and their opponents are starting to take control of the possession game. I think they caught a few teams not taking them seriously enough early on, but the word is out now. I don't think their possession game will completely fall off the map, but it will regress - and with the lack of talent and the inconsistent goaltending . . . that's a bottom 5 team before they sell off pieces.
 
Patrick said:
Also, wanted to thank those involved in the discussion yesterday about this being a bottom five team, it was very informative and good natured.

Follow-up question for you:

Is the team in the bottom five before the trade-deadline sell-off?
Click to expand...

Yes. I don't think the sell-off will really change the team all that much. I mean, who is going to get traded? Matthias? Spaling? Parenteau? They're hardly driving the team right now. If anything we might get slightly better after they leave depending on who gets called up to replace them.
 
Interesting take guys, any thoughts on some of the advanced stats guys who, although prefacing things with it's a small sample, disagree?

Steve Burtch I know for one and I recall seeing a few others.
 
Patrick said:
That is such ridiculous scheduling.

They played/will play Pittsburgh, Dallas, Winnipeg, Detroit and Washington all in the space of a week, that's more intense than even a playoff schedule.

The NHL really is a clown college.
Click to expand...

NHL on board for Leafs tank as an olive branch for not letting the Leafs win McDavid?
 
Patrick said:
Interesting take guys, any thoughts on some of the advanced stats guys who, although prefacing things with it's a small sample, disagree?

Steve Burtch I know for one and I recall seeing a few others.
Click to expand...

I think there's a really big sample size issue with the advanced stats right now, especially with the way the team has been trending over the last few games in terms of score adjust numbers and such. Their possession game seems to be coming back to earth/regressing to the mean. I think, at the 20 game mark, we'll see a team that's fairly average in terms of possession, and with all the other issues with the roster . . .
 
how huge was that goal from the Caps with 0.8 left. Now the Leafs are tied for last in the NHL, despite getting 4 points last week.

Go Tank Go!
 
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