Leafs acquire Matt Murray [25% retained]

[Peter D.]

It amuses me that Murray too was a former Soo Greyhound.  ;D

 

[Kin]

As to your overpayment comment, I?m not sure what you mean by that.

He complained about the Matthews/Marner/Nylander deals incessantly. He thinks Dubas should have waved a magic wand and got them to sign for considerably less than market value.

He still attributes this to the team struggling despite all three guys being wild successes.

 

[bustaheims]

As to your overpayment comment, I?m not sure what you mean by that.

He complained about the Matthews/Marner/Nylander deals incessantly. He thinks Dubas should have waived a magic wand and got them to sign for considerably less than market value.

He still attributes this to the team struggling despite all three guys being wild successes.

Seriously. All 3 are arguably outperforming their cap hits (okay, not arguable with Nylander - he?s massively outperformed his the past couple years).

 

[cujo4ever]

Don't love it, but there weren't really any good options for goaltenders. Hopefully he can play like a rookie again!

 

[princedpw]

If (and it?s a substantial if) Murray regains his form, we?ll look back on this fondly. Really, he just needs to perform at roughly league average level for it to not be awful.

Unfortunately, he hasn?t been healthy enough to show he?s still able to be that guy for a while.

I think it hinges entirely on if he?s healthy for the playoffs?if yes then it?s a win; if no, a loss.  And it?s way beyond anyone?s control.

 

[bustaheims]

Don't love it, but there weren't really any good options for goaltenders. Hopefully he can play like a rookie again!

This was definitely a factor. I have to imagine Kuemper is going to get paid, and bringing Campbell back for what?s likely in the $5M range would have a similar odour to it. The other trade options cost more assets and mostly have similar questions. This was just not a good off-season to need a goalie on an affordable contract.

 

[Zee]

I'm willing to see how this plays out (like I have a choice lol ) but remember when we first got Campbell he was seen as a backup only. Now people are prepared to give him 5x5? He's never proven he can be a legit starter.  So 5 year risk vs 2 year risk is a no brainer. Let's be honest if this doesn't work Dubas is gone anyway.  At least Murray has done it before, can he do it again, we'll find out.

 

[princedpw]

As to your overpayment comment, I?m not sure what you mean by that.

He complained about the Matthews/Marner/Nylander deals incessantly. He thinks Dubas should have waved a magic wand and got them to sign for considerably less than market value.

He still attributes this to the team struggling despite all three guys being wild successes.

I think Covid and the cap reduction hit the leafs harder than most teams.  They signed big contracts which are good values but would be insane values by this point if the cap went up to $100 million.  They?d be able to fill out the bottom of the lineup, but now they really can?t.  The leafs would be in a vastly better position relative to other teams. It?s just bad luck.

 

[Kin]

I think Covid and the cap reduction hit the leafs harder than most teams.  They signed big contracts which are good values but would be insane values by this point if the cap went up to $100 million.  They?d be able to fill out the bottom of the lineup, but now they really can?t.  The leafs would be in a vastly better position relative to other teams. It?s just bad luck.

Maybe, but to my mind the big issue isn't any of those three guys. It's Tavares. And not even Tavares particularly, although he's never really lived up to the deal, but more the principle there. I think the Leafs learned the hard way that it's very hard to build a rounded out team with three guys making 10+ million. It puts tremendous pressure on your ability to come up with young talent and, to date, the Lamoriello/Hunter drafts have proven terrible at that.

I know people aren't going to want to hear me on this again but the major issue, right now, is that the Leafs did their whole "Well, we drafted Matthews and Marner, now let's trade for a goalie and sign Vets! The Rebuild is Over!" which led to driving hard to make the playoffs in Matthews rookie year which meant they didn't load up on picks or have the draft picks likely to turn into secondary pieces.

I mean, look at Colorado. They started building this version of their team effectively in 2011 with Landeskog. In those 11 years they had six top 10 picks in the draft and 4 picks in the top 5. The Leafs are trying to do it with four top 10 picks and three in the top 5.

 

[ZBBM]

This is such a disappointing trade. Dubas should have just overpaid Campbell then.

Dubas is proving to be more hat than cattle, but this guy has won a couple of Cups.  That counts for something.

 

[ZBBM]

Game has sucked for the last 3 years

MLHS had a kind of "let me talk myself into thinking getting Murray sis a good thing" up earlier today.  It wasn't their best analysis but they did make the point that he's had stretches in the last couple of years that were very, very good.  So it hasn't been a freefall plunge, entirely.

 

[herman]

IN:
Matt Murray (25% retained): 2 yrs 4.68M AAV
2022 2nd rd pick (38th overall) ?> Fraser Minten
2023 3rd rd pick
2024 7th rd pick

OUT:
Petr Mrazek: 2 yrs 3.8M AAV
2022 1st rd pick (25th overall) ?> Sam Rinzel
Future considerations

NET:
+/- Whatever performance difference between Murray v Mrazek
+880k cap hit for two years
-13 draft slots in 2022
+3rd rd pick in 2023
+7th rd pick in 2024

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1546704181997756416
No clue why these article links aren?t one step more direct to the writing?

 

[Arn]

I don?t hate it. I?d have preferred a bit more Sens cap retention. What we manage to do for the second goalie will make or break it I think.

 

[Andy007]

So maybe it's just me but I think Murray is being undervalued here. Perhaps it's the traditional numbers (SV% and GAA) that skew things a bit but when you take a closer look Murray is much more competitive than he's been given credit for. Looking at last year:

Campbell: .596 Quality Start %
Murray:    .600 QS%

Campbell: 10 Really Bad Starts (games with .850 sv% or less) in 47 starts
Murray: 3 RBS in 20 starts

Campbell:  .914 Even Strength SV%
Murray: .912 ES SV%

Campbell: .790 High Danger Scoring Chance SV%
Murray: .813 HDSC SV%

So considering Murray is around 2.5 years younger than Campbell, has started almost double the amount of games (not to mention 50 games in the playoffs with 2 Cups and a .921 SV%) and has been playing for a bottom-tier team that sports Nikita Zaitsev as a top-pairing defenceman, I am much more comfortable with him under Campbell's asking price for less than half the commitment.

Now if Dubas can successfully grab a Comrie, Samsonov or even Hill in free agency, the goaltending position could look pretty good.

 

[Andy007]

Additionally, on the status of Campbell and his ability to be a starting goaltender, well, LA moved him out despite him being the much younger and cheaper option to a faltering Quick. Toronto bringing in Mrazek at nearly 4M also has to be based on misgivings about his ability to start a full season. He's now 30 and it's increasingly hard to envision a reality where Campbell is a bonafide #1 starter. With Murray I think the potential for that to happen is significantly higher.

 

[Bender]

Additionally, on the status of Campbell and his ability to be a starting goaltender, well, LA moved him out despite him being the much younger and cheaper option to a faltering Quick. Toronto bringing in Mrazek at nearly 4M also has to be based on misgivings about his ability to start a full season. He's now 30 and it's increasingly hard to envision a reality where Campbell is a bonafide #1 starter. With Murray I think the potential for that to happen is significantly higher.

Murray's also had injury history though...

 

[Bender]

https://twitter.com/RLeesam/status/1546652237505576960?t=3rXia1CYBnVTVoSFkBnr1Q&s=19

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I?m not going to pretend that I like the trade; I don?t. The cap hit is too high and so is the injury risk. I don?t like that Dubas is gambling this way with the most important position on a hockey team.

But? if I?m going to try to persuade myself that I?m okay with the trade? First off, I?m pretty sure Dubas isn?t thrilled with any of his other options, both in terms of cap hit and term. I expect Campbell and Kuemper are looking for too much money over too many years. If, in theory, Dubas could have resigned Campbell or signed Kuemper for 2 years at Murray?s 4.6M, I think he would have done it. But neither guy is signing that contract. And Dubas may legitimately have as many or more concerns about Campbell?s health as he does about Murray. The biggest appeal of Murray (again, if I?m persuading myself) is that he has a high ceiling and the term commitment is only two years.

No matter who the 1B goalie ends up being, I think it?ll probably end up more likely than not that Dubas continues to spend the next two years actively probing the goalie market for other options.

 

[Andy007]

Additionally, on the status of Campbell and his ability to be a starting goaltender, well, LA moved him out despite him being the much younger and cheaper option to a faltering Quick. Toronto bringing in Mrazek at nearly 4M also has to be based on misgivings about his ability to start a full season. He's now 30 and it's increasingly hard to envision a reality where Campbell is a bonafide #1 starter. With Murray I think the potential for that to happen is significantly higher.

Murray's also had injury history though...

Yep, and it's certainly not a slam dunk acquisition or without risk. But all things equal I lean towards Murray and taking into account Campbell's $ and term demands it's a no-brainer for me. And again, I want to see Comrie or Samsonov signed as well; they definitely need another goalie with starting potential/capabilities.