Leafs @ Bruins - Feb. 2nd, 7:00pm - TSN4, TSN 1050

[CarltonTheBear]

Like Babcock has said time and time again that this is team that needs to get scoring from all 4 lines because we don't have an Ovechkin-type player. And with JVR out that's more true than ever. But he's basically set-up his forwards so that the 3rd and 4th lines will not score. This is what I was worried would happen when Spaling came back, that he would instantly get his 3C spot back even though he was probably the worst player on the team before his injury. This team is far better with Kadri taking the tough minutes and having Holland as the 3C on a line that might possibly score some goals.

Matthias-Kadri-Komarov
Grabner-Bozak-Parenteau
Lupul-Holland-Boyes
Winnik-Froese-Clune/Spaling

Have that 4th line start every defensive zone shift if they must.

I mean, as a proud member of Tank Nation, whatever. Stuff like this just boggles my mind.

 

[Kin]

Well he's a C (Boyes isn't) and Babcock has Froese taking almost all of the defensive zone draws.  He's got over 100 more defensive zone starts than offensive zone starts this season at 5v5 and is 6th on the team in defensive zone starts among forwards, despite playing less than all those ahead of him.

So while I don't think he's giving them anything offensively, he's serving a purpose on a tanking team - taking all those crummy, tough minutes.  Jay McClement-style.

He's not really winning a great percentage of those faceoffs though and his possession numbers aren't good so I don't necessarily know that there's a real purpose being served outside of being a warm body.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Well he's a C (Boyes isn't) and Babcock has Froese taking almost all of the defensive zone draws.  He's got over 100 more defensive zone starts than offensive zone starts this season at 5v5 and is 6th on the team in defensive zone starts among forwards, despite playing less than all those ahead of him.

So while I don't think he's giving them anything offensively, he's serving a purpose on a tanking team - taking all those crummy, tough minutes.  Jay McClement-style.

He's not really winning a great percentage of those faceoffs though and his possession numbers aren't good so I don't necessarily know that there's a real purpose being served outside of being a warm body.

The team also has 5 centres playing now. Froese and Spaling both serve the same role, you don't need two McClements in the line-up.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Well he's a C (Boyes isn't) and Babcock has Froese taking almost all of the defensive zone draws.  He's got over 100 more defensive zone starts than offensive zone starts this season at 5v5 and is 6th on the team in defensive zone starts among forwards, despite playing less than all those ahead of him.

So while I don't think he's giving them anything offensively, he's serving a purpose on a tanking team - taking all those crummy, tough minutes.  Jay McClement-style.

He's not really winning a great percentage of those faceoffs though and his possession numbers aren't good so I don't necessarily know that there's a real purpose being served outside of being a warm body.

I'm assuming so no one else has to do it.  He's the Mike Rowe of the team.

 

[bustaheims]

He's not really winning a great percentage of those faceoffs though and his possession numbers aren't good so I don't necessarily know that there's a real purpose being served outside of being a warm body.

He has a 77.2% winning percentage in the defensive zone!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

He has a 77.2% winning percentage in the defensive zone!

I actually had to double check that myself to make sure you weren't a dirty liar. 77.2% in the defensive zone, 20.8% in the offensive zone.

How in the world is that even possible?

Spaling's the same too. 69.5% and 32.5%.

 

[bustaheims]

I actually had to double check that myself to make sure you weren't a dirty liar. 77.2% in the defensive zone, 20.8% in the offensive zone.

How in the world is that even possible?

Spaling's the same too. 69.5% and 32.5%.

I don't quite get it, either - outside of having to take on other faceoff specialists when they're in the offensive zone, and not being on their level - but, I'm confident in saying that's why Babcock keeps giving them minutes.

 

[Kin]

He's not really winning a great percentage of those faceoffs though and his possession numbers aren't good so I don't necessarily know that there's a real purpose being served outside of being a warm body.

He has a 77.2% winning percentage in the defensive zone!

And a GF% of 29.2!

 

[bustaheims]

He's not really winning a great percentage of those faceoffs though and his possession numbers aren't good so I don't necessarily know that there's a real purpose being served outside of being a warm body.

He has a 77.2% winning percentage in the defensive zone!

And a GF% of 29.2!

Hey, I never said he was good at anything else!

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

He's not really winning a great percentage of those faceoffs though and his possession numbers aren't good so I don't necessarily know that there's a real purpose being served outside of being a warm body.

He has a 77.2% winning percentage in the defensive zone!

And a GF% of 29.2!

Well basically no forwards who have a similar zone start % as Froese (looked at 20 players) have a GF% above 50% (I believe only 2 do, Stoll and Haula), most of the others are in the 44% or under range.  Then you get into the fact the Leafs are a low scoring team regardless since they don't have enough skill and it seems about right.

I'm all for Boyes playing more, I just think Froese has been given crappy minutes and has performed about how you'd expect with crappy minutes on a poor team.

 

[Bender]

New Leafs logo unveiled after game tonight?

Yup. Happy New Logo Night!

I imagine the "change" will be barely noticeable.

Compared to the current logo? I have a feeling it will be a modern redesign of the 60s logo.

 

[Kin]

Well basically no forwards who have a similar zone start % as Froese (looked at 20 players) have a GF% above 50% (I believe only 2 do, Stoll and Haula), most of the others are in the 44% or under range.  Then you get into the fact the Leafs are a low scoring team regardless since they don't have enough skill and it seems about right.

I'm all for Boyes playing more, I just think Froese has been given crappy minutes and has performed about how you'd expect with crappy minutes on a poor team.

I think we broadly agree though. He's being used in a particular manner, I agree, and that usage is informing his numbers. My point is just that his numbers reflect that, even when accounting for the way he's being used, it's not leading to results that are anything other than what you'd expect. So it doesn't seem like there's an edge to him being out there vs. anyone else.

 

[Redleaf]

Who is dat guy blowing the cosmic smoke ring tings?

Looks like a Vape cloud competition. Lol

 

[L K]

Man the Bruins really aren't what they used to be. It's like they're icing half a lineup.

Well yeah, that's why that Miller guy has to be on two lines.

Colin and Kevan Miller are hurt you don't think both of them exist.

I just don't think we can rule out the possibility it's the same person, Scully.  NHL folklore is full of reports of identical names appearing in multiple places simultaneously... Sutters, Courtnalls, even Gretzkys. Yes, the government wants you to believe in the whole "brothers" theory, but what else would Big Brother WANT you to think?!?

They're not even related

Do you have the medical degree to back that up?  If they aren't related why do they have the same name AND live in the same city!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

He has a 77.2% winning percentage in the defensive zone!

Ok, so I did some digging on this, for two reasons. First, it really just seemed too unbelievable to be true. And second, the new enhanced stats page on NHL.com has been riddled with errors since the start. I haven't heard about this one before, but I thought it was worth looking into.

According to NHL.com enhanced stats page, Froese has won 232 faceoffs and lost 241 faceoffs in all zones and in all situations. That checks out no problem, confirmed on WOI. But their breakdown per zone is definitely messed up. This is what they have:

OZFW	OZFL	OZTOT	FO%		DZFW	DZFL	DZTOT	FO%		NZFW	NZFL	NZTOT	FO%
34	129	163	20.8		139	41	180	77.2		59	71	130	45.4

When you add all that up, it checks out that he's won 232 faceoffs and lost 241. But everyone knows that the gap between his DZ and OZ totals should be WAAAAAAY bigger than that. I checked WOI. They don't break down faceoffs by zone, but they do give zone starts. According to WOI Froese started 94 shifts in the OZ, 282 shifts in the DZ, and 133 shifts in the NZ. Those numbers obviously seem a lot more accurate given how we've seen his usage. So somewhere NHL.com messed up and probably counted a bunch of defensive zone draws as offensive zone draws.

At this point I was pretty curious, what is Froese's actual faceoff winning percentage in the defensive zone? So I busted out excel and his game log and manually entered all his faceoff stats from each games faceoff summary report. It was a little tedious but it didn't actually take that long. I confirmed the numbers with the winning percentages in his game log and with his per game totals from WOI so I'm pretty confident these are accurate. Here's his ACTUAL breakdown:

OZFW	OZFL	OZTOT	FO%		DZFW	DZFL	DZTOT	FO%		NZFW	NZFL	NZTOT	FO%
35	41	76	46.1		138	129	267	51.7		59	71	130	45.4

So, notice the mistake? They somehow mistook all OZFL as DFZL and vice-versa (and somehow confused 1 offensive zone faceoff win for a defensive zone faceoff win). Sure hope Babcock's not using those numbers.

 

[Kin]

At this point I was pretty curious, what is Froese's actual faceoff winning percentage in the defensive zone? So I busted out excel and his game log and manually entered all his faceoff stats from each games faceoff summary report. It was a little tedious but it didn't actually take that long. I confirmed the numbers with the winning percentages in his game log and with his per game totals from WOI so I'm pretty confident these are accurate. Here's his ACTUAL breakdown:

I love this site.

 

[Frank E]

At this point I was pretty curious, what is Froese's actual faceoff winning percentage in the defensive zone? So I busted out excel and his game log and manually entered all his faceoff stats from each games faceoff summary report. It was a little tedious but it didn't actually take that long. I confirmed the numbers with the winning percentages in his game log and with his per game totals from WOI so I'm pretty confident these are accurate. Here's his ACTUAL breakdown:

 

[bustaheims]

So, notice the mistake? They somehow mistook all OZFL as DFZL and vice-versa (and somehow confused 1 offensive zone faceoff win for a defensive zone faceoff win). Sure hope Babcock's not using those numbers.

That changes everything! Stupid NHL.com!

 

[ZBBM]

At this point I was pretty curious, what is Froese's actual faceoff winning percentage in the defensive zone? So I busted out excel and his game log and manually entered all his faceoff stats from each games faceoff summary report. It was a little tedious but it didn't actually take that long. I confirmed the numbers with the winning percentages in his game log and with his per game totals from WOI so I'm pretty confident these are accurate. Here's his ACTUAL breakdown:

I love this site.

"... so I busted out Excel ...."

Somewhere, Cliff Fletcher's dear old grey head just burst into flames like a big old Baked Alaska.

 

[Kin]

"... so I busted out Excel ...."

Somewhere, Cliff Fletcher's dear old grey head just burst into flames like a big old Baked Alaska.

See, the great thing is we really got to the bottom of whether or not Byron Frooze adds nothing to the 4th line or just essentially nothing.