Leafs Get Andersen from Ducks

[jonlleafs]

I like the deal and I like Andersen, having had him in my hockey pool the last two years.

I'm assuming the "rush" was not wanting to subject the young players to crushing goals on one of the first three shots of the game over and over again, especially if its the result of a Marner/Matthews/Nylander turnover or something. Confidence in the goalie makes players perform more confidently themselves, and all that.

That being said, the last three trades the Leafs have made for goalies have not gone overly well, so cautious optimism here. $5M a year ain't bad at all, though, especially if he winds up performing as well as they seem to think he will.

Well we could just be ruining another goalie that had elite status potential.   
We need to sign an Ed Belfour who would not get crushed mentally by this town.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So I'm not sure who this guy is, but he might be worth a follow as he was the first one, by several hours, who broke the Andersen news and it's apparently the second trade the Leafs have made recently that he has had first, even before LeafsPR.

@incarceratedbob

He really isn't. Maybe he got this one right, maybe it was the old broken clock theory. But he isn't worth following.

 

[Misty]

I don't mind this deal at all. I think it will help that Andersen will come into it knowing that he's not expected to single-handedly win the Leafs a ton of games...management will expect him to do his very best but won't be unduly upset when he loses. He's not someone who typically gives up those soul-sapping softies, at least.

I think they looked at the ups and downs of Bernier last season and came to the conclusion that he's not their future. They can try peddling him cheaply to one of the other teams looking for goaltending this summer (Calgary?) or see if there's a buyer for him at the trade deadline, or let him walk as UFA next summer (after exposing him to the entry draft). That buys extra seasoning time for Sparks and Bibeau, one of whom might then be able to be back-up for next season (or finish out this season if Bernier gets traded).

Andersen might not be an elite goalie needed for a cup push, but by the time the rest of the pieces are in place and developed, we might have an up-and-coming goalie that we draft this year or next.

The price doesn't seem too out of line relative to anything else; and I'd consider him a step up (and a lot less injury-prone) to Reimer.

 

[gunnar36]

I don't feel good about the price we had to pay to make this deal.  You have to be cautious when evaluating a goalie that played behind a very solid team in Anaheim that had 100+ point seasons the last 3 years.  I really do hope he can establish himself as a true #1 goalie that we have been lacking since Belfour, but there is no guarantee that he will be any better then Bernier with the team he now has in front of him.
We are a still long ways away from being a true contender, the draft picks would have been more helpful at this time IMO....but if this helps to attract Stamkos, I'm on board.

 

[Frank E]

I don't love this move. I'm with Frank in that it seems a little early to be addressing the goal.

And most of us agreed that goaltending was down the list in terms of what this rebuild needed this summer.

If they signed this guy as a UFA on July 1, I wouldn't dislike it as much. But man, not only did they address something that I would have preferred they wait on, they spent 2 high draft picks on a pretty average guy without much of a track record.

I've been back and forth on the Stamkos thing, but he's a young elite UFA. No cost but cap space. Anderson cost them 2 high picks, and now carries a 5 year commitment.

I don't like this move today. We're not supposed to be spending draft picks on luxuries at this point.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

$5mil is certainly a little easier to swallow. But I don't really like the whole "it's 18th league-wide that's good!" idea because starting goalie cap hits are pretty top-heavy. You've got a bunch of guys who either are established above-average starting goalies or who used to be making $5.5mil+ and then basically everyone else making under $4.5mil, sometimes considerably. It's a very odd set-up. But Andersen getting what he did with the experience that he has is pretty unheard of.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I don't love this move. I'm with Frank in that it seems a little early to be addressing the goal.

And most of us agreed that goaltending was down the list in terms of what this rebuild needed this summer.

If they signed this guy as a UFA on July 1, I wouldn't dislike it as much. But man, not only did they address something that I would have preferred they wait on, they spent 2 high draft picks on a pretty average guy without much of a track record.

I've been back and forth on the Stamkos thing, but he's a young elite UFA. No cost but cap space. Anderson cost them 2 high picks, and now carries a 5 year commitment.

I don't like this move today. We're not supposed to be spending draft picks on luxuries at this point.

They dealt from a position of strength to, hopefully, provide stability in a position of need.  They need a goalie - if the plan is to draft and develop one, that is 6-7 years away from bearing fruit.

As the Leafs themselves have said, they can't keep all the picks.  They had the luxury of picks 30 and 31 and could afford to use one to address another need.  The cap hit is reasonable and he's been an above average goalie.

 

[jdh1]

This goalie signing almost tells me that they are going to bite on Stamkos.I think there jumping the gun on this rebuild,but ownership might be pushing for contention.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I don't love this move. I'm with Frank in that it seems a little early to be addressing the goal.

And most of us agreed that goaltending was down the list in terms of what this rebuild needed this summer.

If they signed this guy as a UFA on July 1, I wouldn't dislike it as much. But man, not only did they address something that I would have preferred they wait on, they spent 2 high draft picks on a pretty average guy without much of a track record.

I've been back and forth on the Stamkos thing, but he's a young elite UFA. No cost but cap space. Anderson cost them 2 high picks, and now carries a 5 year commitment.

I don't like this move today. We're not supposed to be spending draft picks on luxuries at this point.

They dealt from a position of strength to, hopefully, provide stability in a position of need.  They need a goalie - if the plan is to draft and develop one, that is 6-7 years away from bearing fruit.

As the Leafs themselves have said, they can't keep all the picks.  They had the luxury of picks 30 and 31 and could afford to use one to address another need.  The cap hit is reasonable and he's been an above average goalie.

Yeah, I feel like there is always going to be downside when you make a deal and some people (not Frank specifically) take a perverse joy out of sucking all the excitement out of something like this by obsessing over the fact that it's not absolute highway robbery in the Leafs favour and that there is a chance this doesn't work out.

Being excited to see Andersen play for the Leafs is still okay, though.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I don't love this move. I'm with Frank in that it seems a little early to be addressing the goal.

And most of us agreed that goaltending was down the list in terms of what this rebuild needed this summer.

If they signed this guy as a UFA on July 1, I wouldn't dislike it as much. But man, not only did they address something that I would have preferred they wait on, they spent 2 high draft picks on a pretty average guy without much of a track record.

I've been back and forth on the Stamkos thing, but he's a young elite UFA. No cost but cap space. Anderson cost them 2 high picks, and now carries a 5 year commitment.

I don't like this move today. We're not supposed to be spending draft picks on luxuries at this point.

They dealt from a position of strength to, hopefully, provide stability in a position of need.  They need a goalie - if the plan is to draft and develop one, that is 6-7 years away from bearing fruit.

As the Leafs themselves have said, they can't keep all the picks.  They had the luxury of picks 30 and 31 and could afford to use one to address another need.  The cap hit is reasonable and he's been an above average goalie.

Yeah, I feel like there is always going to be downside when you make a deal and some people (not Frank specifically) take a perverse joy out of sucking all the excitement out of something like this by obsessing over the fact that it's not absolute highway robbery in the Leafs favour and that there is a chance this doesn't work out.

Being excited to see Andersen play for the Leafs is still okay, though.

Here's what Scott Cullen says about the value of the picks and his verdict:

The first pick that the Ducks receive will be the 30th pick in this year?s draft (which originally belonged to the Pittsburgh Penguins). The 30th pick typically offers a little less than a 40% chance of turning into an NHL player. The Ducks now have a couple of late first rounders to play with in Friday's first-round.

There?s some variance with the 2017 second-round pick that the Ducks will receive, since it depends on the 2016-2017 standings, but a second-round pick, generally, presents just barely better than a one-in-three chance of becoming an NHL player.

Between the two picks, there is a fair opportunity for the Ducks to find a player that will have some value to them long-term, and this is a case of Anaheim dealing from a position of strength. Gibson is a very good young goaltender so it made no sense for the Ducks to pay a big price to keep Andersen too.

Verdict: While the price of the picks might appear significant, there?s a lot of uncertainty there, more than would reasonably be expected when evaluating a goaltender with Andersen?s track record. Thus, the Maple Leafs get the nod for acquiring the better player at a fair, but not unreasonable, price.

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-leafs-land-a-new-goalie-1.511676

 

[Joe S.]

I don't know why losing became the new winning. Drafting a goalie this year and best case he's be ready in what... 5 years? When this contract expires... And so what if they win some games and are competitive between now and then.

I can't get worked up over getting better now. This does nothing to stop management from scouting and drafting smartly.

 

[Frank E]

They tanked really hard to get to that position of strength. That position was needed to keep the pipeline full of prospects because the ones they have aren't all going to work out.

Spending those picks on a position that could be adequately filled on the UFA market isn't dealing properly at this point of my plan.  I'd rather have been discussing quality goaltending when this team was talking playoffs.

But then again, my plan was trading Kadri this summer.

Now we're spending draft picks on goalies. I think this rebuild is going to be accelerated beyond what I thought was going to be the pace.

 

[Frank E]

I don't know why losing became the new winning. Drafting a goalie this year and best case he's be ready in what... 5 years? When this contract expires... And so what if they win some games and are competitive between now and then.

I can't get worked up over getting better now. This does nothing to stop management from scouting and drafting smartly.

Except they just burned 2 very high draft picks.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

They tanked really hard to get to that position of strength. That position was needed to keep the pipeline full of prospects because the ones they have aren't all going to work out.

Spending those picks on a position that could be adequately filled on the UFA market isn't dealing properly at this point of my plan.  I'd rather have been discussing quality goaltending when this team was talking playoffs.

But then again, my plan was trading Kadri this summer.

Now we're spending draft picks on goalies. I think this rebuild is going to be accelerated beyond what I thought was going to be the pace.

But they were never going to be able to keep all of those picks - if they're not dealt now, they're dealt after the picks are made, but there's only a finite number of SPCs.  Maybe a goalie could have been found as UFA, but I don't think any are as young - so you're just kicking the can further down the line and hoping you can acquire one later.  If they feel this is their guy, why not go out and get him now?

 

[bustaheims]

As the Leafs themselves have said, they can't keep all the picks.  They had the luxury of picks 30 and 31 and could afford to use one to address another need.  The cap hit is reasonable and he's been an above average goalie.

Not only that, but they'll almost certainly recoup some of the value of they dealt away when they move out expiring contracts at the deadline, or Bozak and JvR this summer, etc. There's value in spreading the picks out and building a pipeline. You can only have so many prospects in the system at a time.

 

[Joe S.]

I don't know why losing became the new winning. Drafting a goalie this year and best case he's be ready in what... 5 years? When this contract expires... And so what if they win some games and are competitive between now and then.

I can't get worked up over getting better now. This does nothing to stop management from scouting and drafting smartly.

Except they just burned 2 very high draft picks.
[/quote

So? They still have the very next pick. And. That second year? You can't treat every draft pick like a can't miss prospect.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I don't know why losing became the new winning. Drafting a goalie this year and best case he's be ready in what... 5 years? When this contract expires... And so what if they win some games and are competitive between now and then.

I can't get worked up over getting better now. This does nothing to stop management from scouting and drafting smartly.

Except they just burned 2 very high draft picks.

You're saying they burned them, they clearly believe Andersen has a game that is worth it.

The Leafs work with an analytics company that specializes in reaction speed using a proprietary software, I'd imagine Andersen must rank extremely highly in this regard and the Leafs thought it made him substantially better than the other options out there.

 

[Frank E]

When do they have to pay the picks for Babcock and Lou?

 

[mr grieves]

They tanked really hard to get to that position of strength. That position was needed to keep the pipeline full of prospects because the ones they have aren't all going to work out.

Spending those picks on a position that could be adequately filled on the UFA market isn't dealing properly at this point of my plan.  I'd rather have been discussing quality goaltending when this team was talking playoffs.

But then again, my plan was trading Kadri this summer.

Now we're spending draft picks on goalies. I think this rebuild is going to be accelerated beyond what I thought was going to be the pace.

But they were never going to be able to keep all of those picks - if they're not dealt now, they're dealt after the picks are made, but there's only a finite number of SPCs.  Maybe a goalie could have been found as UFA, but I don't think any are as young - so you're just kicking the can further down the line and hoping you can acquire one later.  If they feel this is their guy, why not go out and get him now?

I think that's a sound rationale for the trade and was hoping they'd move for a young-ish, partway developed goaltender who couldn't fit on a better team. And at other positions besides. I'm all for using picks (and other assets) to get guys like Gardiner, Holland, Franson.

But the trade's only half the equation. There's also the deal. And I wonder: how can the Leafs possibly know, at this point, that he's "their guy" for the next 5 years at $5m/year? I look at the other long-term contracts they've signed recently and I think there's a very good chance Kadri, Gardiner, and Rielley will out-perform those deals. Looking at his record, I've none of that confidence about Andersen. Do you?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I don't know why losing became the new winning. Drafting a goalie this year and best case he's be ready in what... 5 years? When this contract expires... And so what if they win some games and are competitive between now and then.

I can't get worked up over getting better now. This does nothing to stop management from scouting and drafting smartly.

Except they just burned 2 very high draft picks.

Which have a ~40% & 30% chance of turning into NHL players.  While I think we all loved them acquiring so many picks, we shouldn't over value them either.  They've had high picks for a few years now, too.