Leafs negotiating long-term deal with Kadri?

[Andy007]

Not sure if this fits here - but I was just falling down a rabbit hole on hockeydb, and eventually got to the 2009 draft... and I was a little surprised by what I found:

The top 10 scorers of all players picked in that draft:

John Tavares 408 164 209 373 0.914
Matt Duchene 394 120 180 300 0.761
Evander Kane 361 109 113 222 0.614
Ryan O'Reilly 402 83 139 222 0.552
M. Johansson    321 55 117 172 0.535
Victor Hedman 372 36 134 170 0.456
Nazem Kadri 233 60 85 145 0.622
Ekman-Larsson 316 49 92 141 0.446
Craig Smith 252 59 72 131 0.519
Brayden Schenn 249 51 68 119 0.477

So Kadri actually sits 7th - which, for all you hear or read about him, you'd think he'd be in the bottom 30...

But the part that surprised me was, from a ppg perspective, he's actually 3d (among that top 10).

If you go by Points per 60 minutes (because straight PPG is a bit unfair if Kadri doesn't get as much ice-time) at 5v5 since being drafted Kadri is at 2.0 P/60, tied with Tavares and behind only Duchene who is at 2.1 P/60.

Using 5v5 because, again, Kadri doesn't get the 1st unit PP opportunities that Tavares/Duchene get.

I'm probably a bigger Kadri fan than you and I absolutely believe he has a more than good shot at becoming this team's number 1 centre for the next decade...but, while it is an interesting stat, even I have to say "come on...really?".

"Come on really" what? All he did was post a factual stat.

 

[pmrules]

Not sure if this fits here - but I was just falling down a rabbit hole on hockeydb, and eventually got to the 2009 draft... and I was a little surprised by what I found:

The top 10 scorers of all players picked in that draft:

John Tavares 408 164 209 373 0.914
Matt Duchene 394 120 180 300 0.761
Evander Kane 361 109 113 222 0.614
Ryan O'Reilly 402 83 139 222 0.552
M. Johansson    321 55 117 172 0.535
Victor Hedman 372 36 134 170 0.456
Nazem Kadri 233 60 85 145 0.622
Ekman-Larsson 316 49 92 141 0.446
Craig Smith 252 59 72 131 0.519
Brayden Schenn 249 51 68 119 0.477

So Kadri actually sits 7th - which, for all you hear or read about him, you'd think he'd be in the bottom 30...

But the part that surprised me was, from a ppg perspective, he's actually 3d (among that top 10).

If you go by Points per 60 minutes (because straight PPG is a bit unfair if Kadri doesn't get as much ice-time) at 5v5 since being drafted Kadri is at 2.0 P/60, tied with Tavares and behind only Duchene who is at 2.1 P/60.

Using 5v5 because, again, Kadri doesn't get the 1st unit PP opportunities that Tavares/Duchene get.

I'm probably a bigger Kadri fan than you and I absolutely believe he has a more than good shot at becoming this team's number 1 centre for the next decade...but, while it is an interesting stat, even I have to say "come on...really?".

"Come on really" what? All he did was post a factual stat.

It's a bit Kadri biased in my opinion without other stats and without more context - and I'm a Kadri fan.  But that stat does kind of lead credence to the whole Kadri and Tavares comparison from earlier this year...

Anyways, I think the Leafs are playing the Kadri card perfectly.  Holding him back from #1C and PP1 duties and thus holding his stats back so they can sign him longer term ($4-5M) for cheaper than what he's actually worth had he been 1C and 1PP C for the entire year ($5-6M).  He has long proven he deserves both those prime #1C roles.  All of this while under the guise of trying to improve his defensive game and faceoffs.  By next year, hopefully Bozak is gone for some assets, and the apprenticeship of Kadri can be complete and he can be given the reigns (i.e. #1C and #1PP) completely on a relatively cheaper deal.  It's perfect from the Leafs perspective.  I truly think he can be a consistent 60+ point guy in this league, especially if Kessel is still around.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Not sure if this fits here - but I was just falling down a rabbit hole on hockeydb, and eventually got to the 2009 draft... and I was a little surprised by what I found:

The top 10 scorers of all players picked in that draft:

John Tavares 408 164 209 373 0.914
Matt Duchene 394 120 180 300 0.761
Evander Kane 361 109 113 222 0.614
Ryan O'Reilly 402 83 139 222 0.552
M. Johansson    321 55 117 172 0.535
Victor Hedman 372 36 134 170 0.456
Nazem Kadri 233 60 85 145 0.622
Ekman-Larsson 316 49 92 141 0.446
Craig Smith 252 59 72 131 0.519
Brayden Schenn 249 51 68 119 0.477

So Kadri actually sits 7th - which, for all you hear or read about him, you'd think he'd be in the bottom 30...

But the part that surprised me was, from a ppg perspective, he's actually 3d (among that top 10).

If you go by Points per 60 minutes (because straight PPG is a bit unfair if Kadri doesn't get as much ice-time) at 5v5 since being drafted Kadri is at 2.0 P/60, tied with Tavares and behind only Duchene who is at 2.1 P/60.

Using 5v5 because, again, Kadri doesn't get the 1st unit PP opportunities that Tavares/Duchene get.

I'm probably a bigger Kadri fan than you and I absolutely believe he has a more than good shot at becoming this team's number 1 centre for the next decade...but, while it is an interesting stat, even I have to say "come on...really?".

"Come on really" what? All he did was post a factual stat.

It's a bit Kadri biased in my opinion without other stats and without more context - and I'm a Kadri fan.  But that stat does kind of lead credence to the whole Kadri and Tavares comparison from earlier this year...

Anyways, I think the Leafs are playing the Kadri card perfectly.  Holding him back from #1C and PP1 duties and thus holding his stats back so they can sign him longer term ($4-5M) for cheaper than what he's actually worth had he been 1C and 1PP C for the entire year ($5-6M).  He has long proven he deserves both those prime #1C roles.  All of this while under the guise of trying to improve his defensive game and faceoffs.  By next year, hopefully Bozak is gone for some assets, and the apprenticeship of Kadri can be complete and he can be given the reigns (i.e. #1C and #1PP) completely on a relatively cheaper deal.  It's perfect from the Leafs perspective.  I truly think he can be a consistent 60+ point guy in this league, especially if Kessel is still around.

All I'm trying to say is that his 5v5 production has been comparable to those 2 players and that therefore he should likely get an increased role on the team moving forward.  It doesn't mean he's as good as Tavares simply that his production at 5v5 relative to ice-time has been similar.

 

[pmrules]

Not sure if this fits here - but I was just falling down a rabbit hole on hockeydb, and eventually got to the 2009 draft... and I was a little surprised by what I found:

The top 10 scorers of all players picked in that draft:

John Tavares 408 164 209 373 0.914
Matt Duchene 394 120 180 300 0.761
Evander Kane 361 109 113 222 0.614
Ryan O'Reilly 402 83 139 222 0.552
M. Johansson    321 55 117 172 0.535
Victor Hedman 372 36 134 170 0.456
Nazem Kadri 233 60 85 145 0.622
Ekman-Larsson 316 49 92 141 0.446
Craig Smith 252 59 72 131 0.519
Brayden Schenn 249 51 68 119 0.477

So Kadri actually sits 7th - which, for all you hear or read about him, you'd think he'd be in the bottom 30...

But the part that surprised me was, from a ppg perspective, he's actually 3d (among that top 10).

If you go by Points per 60 minutes (because straight PPG is a bit unfair if Kadri doesn't get as much ice-time) at 5v5 since being drafted Kadri is at 2.0 P/60, tied with Tavares and behind only Duchene who is at 2.1 P/60.

Using 5v5 because, again, Kadri doesn't get the 1st unit PP opportunities that Tavares/Duchene get.

I'm probably a bigger Kadri fan than you and I absolutely believe he has a more than good shot at becoming this team's number 1 centre for the next decade...but, while it is an interesting stat, even I have to say "come on...really?".

"Come on really" what? All he did was post a factual stat.

It's a bit Kadri biased in my opinion without other stats and without more context - and I'm a Kadri fan.  But that stat does kind of lead credence to the whole Kadri and Tavares comparison from earlier this year...

Anyways, I think the Leafs are playing the Kadri card perfectly.  Holding him back from #1C and PP1 duties and thus holding his stats back so they can sign him longer term ($4-5M) for cheaper than what he's actually worth had he been 1C and 1PP C for the entire year ($5-6M).  He has long proven he deserves both those prime #1C roles.  All of this while under the guise of trying to improve his defensive game and faceoffs.  By next year, hopefully Bozak is gone for some assets, and the apprenticeship of Kadri can be complete and he can be given the reigns (i.e. #1C and #1PP) completely on a relatively cheaper deal.  It's perfect from the Leafs perspective.  I truly think he can be a consistent 60+ point guy in this league, especially if Kessel is still around.

All I'm trying to say is that his 5v5 production has been comparable to those 2 players and that therefore he should likely get an increased role on the team moving forward.  It doesn't mean he's as good as Tavares simply that his production at 5v5 relative to ice-time has been similar.

Fair enough - I got that.

The other thing I take from Joe/Potvin's stats...Ryan O'Reilly is not a significant improvement on Kadri.  On Bozak...no doubt...but not on Kadri.

 

[Frank E]

Could one argue that Kadri hasn't been able to capitalize on the PP opportunities he's had, unlike some other top centers have over the same period?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Fair enough - I got that.

The other thing I take from Joe/Potvin's stats...Ryan O'Reilly is not a significant improvement on Kadri.  On Bozak...no doubt...but not on Kadri.

That's where you get into more complicated (or at least harder to quantify) areas like defensive ability.  But I think O'Reilly is solidly in the category of a very good 2nd line C.  Kadri it's hard to say whether he's a #1 C, a very good #2 or what.  Kadri's offensive output (in terms of possession, 5v5 stats) are 1st line material but it remains for debate whether his defensive game is or not.

Something fun to look at: http://ownthepuck.blogspot.ca/

If you use the pull-down menu under the first post (Horizontal Evaluative Rankings Optic ("Hero" Chart) - FORWARDS) you can get a simplistic view of a player's possession & rate stats since 2012-13 shown as 1st line/2nd line/3rd line/4th line calibre.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Could one argue that Kadri hasn't been able to capitalize on the PP opportunities he's had, unlike some other top centers have over the same period?

Prior to this season Kadri's powerplay production has actually been very good. His points/60 was 37th in the league from the 2011-12 to 2013-14 seasons (Bozak was 184th for comparison sakes). He just doesn't get the minutes.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Could one argue that Kadri hasn't been able to capitalize on the PP opportunities he's had, unlike some other top centers have over the same period?

Prior to this season Kadri's powerplay production has actually been very good. His points/60 was 37th in the league from the 2011-12 to 2013-14 seasons (Bozak was 184th for comparison sakes). He just doesn't get the minutes.

And that's without playing with the better PP linemates.

Also, check out this.  P/60 for 2014-15 of all Leafs with at least 50 PP minutes.  Look at Clarkson! 

Kadri is 2nd last at 2.3 P/60 this season on the PP - Clarkson is at 0.56.  How is that even possible?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's where you get into more complicated (or at least harder to quantify) areas like defensive ability.  But I think O'Reilly is solidly in the category of a very good 2nd line C.  Kadri it's hard to say whether he's a #1 C, a very good #2 or what.  Kadri's offensive output (in terms of possession, 5v5 stats) are 1st line material but it remains for debate whether his defensive game is or not.

Further to all that, O'Reilly's offensive numbers are bogged down a little because he played in the NHL as a 18 and 19 year old. And he was mainly played in a 3rd line/defensive role during that time. If you look at both players stats starting from when they were  20-years old O'Reilly's point-per-game ratio is 0.685 (to Kadri's 0.622). Even if you look at just the past 3 seasons (when Kadri broke into the league full-time) O'Reilly's ratios is 0.689 to Kadri's 0.692, so pretty similar.

 

[Chris]

Interesting numbers! One can speculate that the Leafs have "handled Kadri perfectly" but perhaps it's the exact opposite. His production rates suggest he has been under-utilized. Perhaps if he had been slotted into the #1 spot with Kessel, the team would have performed much better and we wouldn't need to be talking about a total rebuild.

 

[freer]

Interesting numbers! One can speculate that the Leafs have "handled Kadri perfectly" but perhaps it's the exact opposite. His production rates suggest he has been under-utilized. Perhaps if he had been slotted into the #1 spot with Kessel, the team would have performed much better and we wouldn't need to be talking about a total rebuild.

I don't care what those stats state. Kadri is no where the player that John Tavares or Matt Duchene are. if he wants more then what Bozak is making they should let him walk. All the talk about the first line not scoring, neither has Kadri.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Interesting numbers! One can speculate that the Leafs have "handled Kadri perfectly" but perhaps it's the exact opposite. His production rates suggest he has been under-utilized. Perhaps if he had been slotted into the #1 spot with Kessel, the team would have performed much better and we wouldn't need to be talking about a total rebuild.

I don't care what those stats state. Kadri is no where the player that John Tavares or Matt Duchene are. if he wants more then what Bozak is making they should let him walk. All the talk about the first line not scoring, neither has Kadri.

So because he isn't as good as Tavares/Duchene, and hasn't lit it up the past month and a half, the Leafs shouldn't sign him if he wants more money than Bozak?

 

[Joe S.]

Interesting numbers! One can speculate that the Leafs have "handled Kadri perfectly" but perhaps it's the exact opposite. His production rates suggest he has been under-utilized. Perhaps if he had been slotted into the #1 spot with Kessel, the team would have performed much better and we wouldn't need to be talking about a total rebuild.

I don't care what those stats state. Kadri is no where the player that John Tavares or Matt Duchene are. if he wants more then what Bozak is making they should let him walk. All the talk about the first line not scoring, neither has Kadri.

No one has even come close to suggesting that.

 

[mr grieves]

Interesting numbers! One can speculate that the Leafs have "handled Kadri perfectly" but perhaps it's the exact opposite. His production rates suggest he has been under-utilized. Perhaps if he had been slotted into the #1 spot with Kessel, the team would have performed much better and we wouldn't need to be talking about a total rebuild.

I don't care what those stats state. Kadri is no where the player that John Tavares or Matt Duchene are. if he wants more then what Bozak is making they should let him walk. All the talk about the first line not scoring, neither has Kadri.

The point raised by the OP is interesting: if Kadri were more often in a 1C role, would the Leafs be rebuilding now? Though I'd put it differently. At what point were decisions made that made the present rebuild more or less inevitable? Nonis's bad week in July 2013 or Burke's trade for Phil?

 

[TML fan]

Really, all putting Kadri on the 1st line does is take a team that has a relatively decent 1st line and a mediocre 2nd line and turn it into a team with a slightly better 1st line and no 2nd line whatsoever. Moving Kadri to the first line doesn't make the Leafs suck any less. It just gives Kadri a chance to pad his stats so the Leafs can overpay a 2nd line centre, and so people can say "wow look how good Kadri is". Apparently the stats say that anyway so what does it matter? Maybe the Leafs win 1 or 2 more games with Kadri on the top line. Maybe they don't. It really doesn't matter. Kadri being on the 1st line doesn't change the Leafs' current situation.

 

[Joe S.]

Though I'd put it differently. At what point were decisions made that made the present rebuild more or less inevitable? Nonis's bad week in July 2013 or Burke's trade for Phil?

Neither.

JFJ's trade of Rask put the team into a death spiral of bad moves. If you're looking at 2 moves that set this team back as of right now, it was the Rask and Steen trades.

If Rask is still on this team, and Steen, and you've got Kessel and JVR beside him, how different would this team be?

Very freaking different.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Really, all putting Kadri on the 1st line does is take a team that has a relatively decent 1st line and a mediocre 2nd line and turn it into a team with a slightly better 1st line and no 2nd line whatsoever. Moving Kadri to the first line doesn't make the Leafs suck any less. It just gives Kadri a chance to pad his stats so the Leafs can overpay a 2nd line centre, and so people can say "wow look how good Kadri is". Apparently the stats say that anyway so what does it matter? Maybe the Leafs win 1 or 2 more games with Kadri on the top line. Maybe they don't. It really doesn't matter. Kadri being on the 1st line doesn't change the Leafs' current situation.

Completely agree!

 

[herman]

Though I'd put it differently. At what point were decisions made that made the present rebuild more or less inevitable? Nonis's bad week in July 2013 or Burke's trade for Phil?

Neither.

JFJ's trade of Rask put the team into a death spiral of bad moves. If you're looking at 2 moves that set this team back as of right now, it was the Rask and Steen trades.

If Rask is still on this team, and Steen, and you've got Kessel and JVR beside him, how different would this team be?

Very freaking different.

I was more sour about those moves than I am about Clarkson's deal. To this day, I am not sure what they were trying to accomplish by moving out one solid prospect, and one brittle, but high-ceiling prospect for a peaked third liner.

Had our GM been replaced by a dipping bird who signed off on moving out pending UFAs for the highest offer at the deadline and consistently drafted the highest PPG player available at every round, I suspect we'd be far better off.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Really, all putting Kadri on the 1st line does is take a team that has a relatively decent 1st line and a mediocre 2nd line and turn it into a team with a slightly better 1st line and no 2nd line whatsoever. Moving Kadri to the first line doesn't make the Leafs suck any less. It just gives Kadri a chance to pad his stats so the Leafs can overpay a 2nd line centre, and so people can say "wow look how good Kadri is". Apparently the stats say that anyway so what does it matter? Maybe the Leafs win 1 or 2 more games with Kadri on the top line. Maybe they don't. It really doesn't matter. Kadri being on the 1st line doesn't change the Leafs' current situation.

Who said it changes the Leafs' current situation?  Just because it doesn't or wouldn't immediately make the team significantly better doesn't mean it shouldn't be done.  I don't even see very many people here advocating for Kadri to be made #1 C in the last couple pages.  Maybe my comment that he should have an increased role?

And it's impossible to say whether it would make the Leafs worse, better or do nothing.  None of these things happen in a vacuum.  Making Kadri the 1st line C doesn't preclude any other number of moves.  Fact is we haven't seen a significant period of time with the C position ice-times doled out differently to really be able to say for sure. 

The reality is that Kadri has a long-term future with the Leafs whereas Bozak does not or should not.  It makes sense to see what you've got in Kadri in a more prominent role going forward.  Can he handle the teams' best night in night out?  Can he grow into a #1 C role?  It appears to me to be easier to fill in C positions 2-4 than it would be to fill in C position #1.  It's in the Leafs' interest to know what they have in Kadri going forward.

 

[Joe S.]

It's amazing how Fletcher, in about 2 months, equaled JFJ's 5 years of incompetence.