Leafs offer for Bernier.......Or Not!

[Omallley]

andystrickland: Sources say #Kings GM Dean Lombardi wants a specific player from the #Leafs roster along with pick in return for Jonathan Bernier

MacArthur and a 2nd is literally the only offer I would do. Any other roster player would be either off the table or not appealing to the Kings. I acknowledge that it's an overpayment, but it also makes room for Kadri so that's a factor for me. I'd try to get Kyle Clifford thrown in as well too though.

Now *that's* a deal I could sort of get behind. I wouldn't scoff at a Clifford/McClement/Brown 4th line...

 

[bustaheims]

MacArthur and a 2nd is literally the only offer I would do. Any other roster player would be either off the table or not appealing to the Kings. I acknowledge that it's an overpayment, but it also makes room for Kadri so that's a factor for me. I'd try to get Kyle Clifford thrown in as well too though.

Yeah. If it's MacArthur and a 2nd, I'd like to see someone like Clifford or Nolan coming to the Leafs in addition to Bernier.

 

[princedpw]

Are we seriously saying that Bernier isn't a better option than Scrivens?

... Bernier may not appear to have the same potential he once did, but he is still a better option than Scrivens at this point.

I am just saying that I don't know whether Bernier is a better option that Scrivens.  Both goaltenders have excellent numbers in the minors.  Scrivens has essentially no record in the NHL.  Bernier has a very short record in the NHL.  That record is really much too short to say anything conclusive, but if you were to say something about Bernier based on his NHL record, you would say that he looks like an extremely bad goaltender.  For example, last year he had the 73rd best even strength save percentage in the league, which suggests he should not have been playing in the NHL.  Consequently, I am surprised to hear anyone offering up more than a 3rd round draft pick for him.  Are people offering up more just because they've heard Bernier's name associated with good things at some distant point in the past, or is there actually some evidence somewhere suggesting he'll be a good goalie next year?


As to the idea of a second rounder plus maccarthur -- the horror!  Wasn't maccarthur rumoured to be worth a first round pick at the trade deadline?  And the idea that you would throw away a guy worth approximately a first round draft pick to make room on the roster for another, less good guy (like Kadri) because he can't make the roster on merit .... That would be unspeakably bad asset management.

 

[jonlleafs]

Are we seriously saying that Bernier isn't a better option than Scrivens?

... Bernier may not appear to have the same potential he once did, but he is still a better option than Scrivens at this point.

I am just saying that I don't know whether Bernier is a better option that Scrivens.  Both goaltenders have excellent numbers in the minors.  Scrivens has essentially no record in the NHL.  Bernier has a very short record in the NHL.  That record is really much too short to say anything conclusive, but if you were to say something about Bernier based on his NHL record, you would say that he looks like an extremely bad goaltender.  For example, last year he had the 73rd best even strength save percentage in the league, which suggests he should not have been playing in the NHL.  Consequently, I am surprised to hear anyone offering up more than a 3rd round draft pick for him.  Are people offering up more just because they've heard Bernier's name associated with good things at some distant point in the past, or is there actually some evidence somewhere suggesting he'll be a good goalie next year?


As to the idea of a second rounder plus maccarthur -- the horror!  Wasn't maccarthur rumoured to be worth a first round pick at the trade deadline?  And the idea that you would throw away a guy worth approximately a first round draft pick to make room on the roster for another, less good guy (like Kadri) because he can't make the roster on merit .... That would be unspeakably bad asset management.

Wait a minute here.  You're out of line.  There is no room in this forum to be sensible and logical. 

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Not a bad post, but it was a conditional first for MacArthur apparently and freeing up his salary would be a terrible thing either.

We have a couple of prospects who are going to be in the NHL as top six players or not at all and they have not been given the opportunity to play those top six minutes with skilled players because of a guy like MacArthur.

It's dealing from a position of strength.

I'm not sold on Bernier either, but Mac and a 2nd for Bernier and a little something would not be a bad deal in my opinion.

 

[Kin]

That record is really much too short to say anything conclusive, but if you were to say something about Bernier based on his NHL record, you would say that he looks like an extremely bad goaltender.  For example, last year he had the 73rd best even strength save percentage in the league, which suggests he should not have been playing in the NHL.  Consequently, I am surprised to hear anyone offering up more than a 3rd round draft pick for him.

I've asked this before but I'm still confused. Why is even strength save percentage somehow a better measurement of a goaltender's abilities than their overall save percentage?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Something like this [from a blog]:

I've seen a number of discussions lately about the best way to predict future goaltender performance. The analytical community showed long ago that because a goalie doesn't see very many PK shots per year, simple luck doesn't come anywhere near balancing out and a goalie's PK Sv% bounces around almost completely randomly from year to year.

From that, it was natural to infer that the penalty kill just adds noise to our measurement of goalies and that we should focus on even strength save percentage (ES Sv%) instead of total save percentage. This would also presumably remove any unfair advantage a goalie gets in total save percentage by playing for a team that doesn't take many penalties. And so it became a widespread belief that ES Sv% was the best measure of goalie talent.

 

[princedpw]

That record is really much too short to say anything conclusive, but if you were to say something about Bernier based on his NHL record, you would say that he looks like an extremely bad goaltender.  For example, last year he had the 73rd best even strength save percentage in the league, which suggests he should not have been playing in the NHL.  Consequently, I am surprised to hear anyone offering up more than a 3rd round draft pick for him.

I've asked this before but I'm still confused. Why is even strength save percentage somehow a better measurement of a goaltender's abilities than their overall save percentage?

I believe the reason it gets quoted by advanced stats guys is that even-strength save percentage is less volatile and has more predictive power than total save percentage including short-handed time.  For instance, different teams spend more or less time killing penalties and penalty kill percentages vary far more widely than even strength save percentage.  Hence the conclusion is that essp is the more valuable (ie: more predictive of the future, which is what we want here for Bernier). I cant quantify for you how much more predictive, but you might be able to google around for analysis if you are interested.

Why did I quote it?  Basically because it was in a blog post I just read and it sounds plausible to me that it is more predictive of the future (though that is not something i have personally verified).  Though, the larger point is that Bernier's sample size is likely far too small to draw any reliable conclusion.  But that is exactly why I would why I wonder why anyone would give up something as valuable as Mac plus a 2nd.

 

[Redleaf]

That record is really much too short to say anything conclusive, but if you were to say something about Bernier based on his NHL record, you would say that he looks like an extremely bad goaltender.  For example, last year he had the 73rd best even strength save percentage in the league, which suggests he should not have been playing in the NHL.  Consequently, I am surprised to hear anyone offering up more than a 3rd round draft pick for him.

I've asked this before but I'm still confused. Why is even strength save percentage somehow a better measurement of a goaltender's abilities than their overall save percentage?

I believe the reason it gets quoted by advanced stats guys is that even-strength save percentage is less volatile and has more predictive power than total save percentage including short-handed time.  For instance, different teams spend more or less time killing penalties and penalty kill percentages vary far more widely than even strength save percentage.  Hence the conclusion is that essp is the more valuable (ie: more predictive of the future, which is what we want here for Bernier). I cant quantify for you how much more predictive, but you might be able to google around for analysis if you are interested.

Why did I quote it?  Basically because it was in a blog post I just read and it sounds plausible to me that it is more predictive of the future (though that is not something i have personally verified).  Though, the larger point is that Bernier's sample size is likely far too small to draw any reliable conclusion.  But that is exactly why I would why I wonder why anyone would give up something as valuable as Mac plus a 2nd.

Interesting analysis.

 

[Damian]

Some one earlier said Rask 2.0.... would Frattin plus a first for Bernier not be exactly that, only worse?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

In the second half of Bernier's season he played 9 games with a record of 3-2-2. In those 9 games he had a .931 SA% and 1.74 GAA.

I'm a little too lazy to add up all of Quick's stats from January, but post-All Star break Bernier's actually out-performed Quick (in the 7 games he appeared in).

Are those the sort of stats I would expect from him in Toronto? Of course not. Did LA's defensive system have a little to do with them? Probably. But I think it does go to show that his season in LA wasn't as bad as some are making it out to be.

He had a rough first two games of the season (one of them was played in Europe), and was then blown out by Detroit later in the season in a game that saw Jonathan Quick let in 4 goals before the 10 minute mark of the 1st period. LA was also between head coaches at that point of the season. Aside from those 3 games statistically the rest of his season looks great.

 

[bustaheims]

Aside from those 3 games statistically the rest of his season looks great.

Sure, but, those 3 games represent close to 20% of his ice time this season. If you take away 20% of just about any goalie's ice time, the rest of their season is good to look very good.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Aside from those 3 games statistically the rest of his season looks great.

Sure, but, those 3 games represent close to 20% of his ice time this season. If you take away 20% of just about any goalie's ice time, the rest of their season is good to look very good.

I get that but it's not like the worst 20% of Bernier's ice time occurred randomly throughout the season. Should the fact that he had a poor first two games of the season really reflect how we view his season as a whole?

The way I see it is he played a lot more good games than bad. In 8 of the 13 (62%) games he started he allowed 2 or less goals against. Reimer only allowed 2 or less in 10 of his 34 starts (29%).

 

[Rebel_1812]

spenders are going to spend.  If you work in a corporation, then I'm sure you have come across easily replaceable and incompetent people.  They never seem to get fired unless the company hires an outside consultant.  The same thing happens in the hockey world. 

Yes, that's because they kiss ass for protection. They also run around asking somebody else to "help" them out, which ends up in somebody else doing their work. Sure, you save money, but in the long run, the shotty work loses you money in other areas.

And alot of hockey organizations have the same issues.  When Wayne was in Phoenix the organization was filled with his friends.  That is all well and good if it succeeds, but considering their on ice and off ice performance; they should have built a meritorious organization rather then nepotistic one.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I can't see someone giving up much for him.  I don't see why a team would.  He's blocked by Quick on a 10-year deal coming off a Cup win, wants out.  It shouldn't take much I would think.  Goalies develop weirdly, Lombardi can't treat him like a top forward prospect.

 

[WalterSobchak]

How many goalies has he drafted/signed in his time here?

So, because Burke has tried and failed to find the right guy, he should stop trying?

Not at the expense of giving up a number 2 draft pick.

 

[Bullfrog]

I honestly don't think they need another unproven guy between the pipes.

If he's got a higher potential than the other unproven guy, sure we do.

 

[Redleaf]

I honestly don't think they need another unproven guy between the pipes.

If he's got a higher potential than the other unproven guy, sure we do.

But does he? That's the million dollar question. Wasn't Pogge supposed to have the greater potential when they traded Rask?

I really hope this rumour was intentional, and has the intended effect of bringing down a certain asking price on a certain veteran goalie the Leafs need a lot more than Bernier.

 

[hockeyfan1]

I honestly don't think they need another unproven guy between the pipes.

If he's got a higher potential than the other unproven guy, sure we do.

A 'risk' worth taking?

 

[Kin]

Though, the larger point is that Bernier's sample size is likely far too small to draw any reliable conclusion.  But that is exactly why I would why I wonder why anyone would give up something as valuable as Mac plus a 2nd.

I think you're overstating that slightly. Bernier doesn't have a long track record, no, but he's got two legit seasons as an NHL back-up under his belt. That's not as much as you want to make conclusions on but there's enough there to get a read on what you think of a guy.