Leafs @ Panthers - Dec. 15 7:00pm EST - CBC

[OldTimeHockey]

Kadri doesn't fit on that first powerplay. Any time the puck makes it way to him the movement stops and the play almost dies.

Also, the powerplay has become a mushroom. The play is all perimeter along the top of the triangle with no penetration to the slot. I also think that's a result of Kadri being that middle guy.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Haven't posted here in a while but I'm much more frustrated with the dead power play than Andersen looking human. 

Sure they could use a bounce but 2/21 over 7 games in December seems to me teams  may have figured some things out (ie. Kadri doesn't do anything and can be mostly ignored, the other guys do mostly the same 2-3 plays from the same positions all the time).

Admittedly I haven't really been able to watch many games in December, but I'm not really convinced there's that much of a problem here. Their shot attempt rates are still top-5 on the PP in December, and 2nd in both scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts if you put much stock in those numbers.

Their PP shooting percentage in December is 6.25%. The Arizona Coyotes have a 6.23% shooting percentage at 5-on-5 this season. Teams run hot and cold sometimes and right now the PP is just running insanely cold.

I'm not necessarily against making changes to the PP just to get them out of their funk, but I really don't think this is a case of other teams all of a sudden figuring the Leafs out.

 

[herman]

Yes teams are zeroing in on Matthews and pressuring Marner's pass, but the chances are still coming. It's just execution on a couple of little things that didn't go our way that past little while. There are so few special teams samples that everything is almost always spiky. On top of that, one of the key cogs in the machine is still fresh off repairs. The disappointment right now is due to expectations set when the Leafs PP1 unit started with unsustainably high success rates.

The only thing I'd change is Matthews' set up spot as he's camping low in a good shooting spot but statically. I'd like to start Matthews higher in the zone when Marner receives the puck and they attack down to the lower circles in unison. It'll make our system a hybrid of last two season's PP1 and PP2 where Marner has his net front and bumper pass options, as well as a moving seam target for catch and release.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1074741934080606209

What a pass!

 

[pnjunction]

Haven't posted here in a while but I'm much more frustrated with the dead power play than Andersen looking human. 

Sure they could use a bounce but 2/21 over 7 games in December seems to me teams  may have figured some things out (ie. Kadri doesn't do anything and can be mostly ignored, the other guys do mostly the same 2-3 plays from the same positions all the time).

Admittedly I haven't really been able to watch many games in December, but I'm not really convinced there's that much of a problem here. Their shot attempt rates are still top-5 on the PP in December, and 2nd in both scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts if you put much stock in those numbers.

Their PP shooting percentage in December is 6.25%. The Arizona Coyotes have a 6.23% shooting percentage at 5-on-5 this season. Teams run hot and cold sometimes and right now the PP is just running insanely cold.

I'm not necessarily against making changes to the PP just to get them out of their funk, but I really don't think this is a case of other teams all of a sudden figuring the Leafs out.

It seemed most obvious to me in the Tampa game.  Maybe they do a better job scouting (as you might expect the #1 team to do on the #2 team) but they seemed to know what was coming at all times from the Leafs PP and collapsed just right to take away all the usual options (ie when the puck went down low to Tavares it was smothered by the goalie and a D-man quickly sealing everything off). 

It is a better metric than straight shots but it's made me a little skeptical of 'high danger' chances, when the puck did go across to one of the off-wing shots we have the goalie seemed so expectant of it that it wasn't dangerous at all.  Those strong side shots take longer to get off than one timers which I fear is something that will eventually sink in as 'hotter' goalies stop all of those catch and release while one timers sail past Andersen going the other way.

I think in the end we just don't have enough shot options, Kadri hasn't been getting in on the action very much (which already makes it a 4 on 4 and not really a power play...) but then on top of that Matthews and Tavares are the only real shooters, that's 2 guys on the ice to smother and it seems to me teams have figured that out. 

Back to the goalies and dangerous chances I know shots are generally more dangerous when the pass goes across but I feel like there's a 'discount' on that when the pass comes from a known passer like Marner where the goalie is pretty much expecting a pass, and then another discount when it's a far side catch and release and not a one time that gets off right away.  The result is a good goalie shutting down all those 'high danger' chances pretty easily and I worry that if you just take comfort in that metric it ignores some of those distinctions between the teams that made a difference in the outcome.