Leafs @ Panthers - Mar. 29th, 7:30pm - TSN4, TSN 1050

[Al14]

Screw the tank, we won another game. 

 

[lamajama]

Luongo was 15-1 in last 16 games against Leafs it was said, so....of course....

 

[Kin]

What's unrealistic about expecting a top 10 draft pick to score more than 15 goals or whatever he's done so far this year?

We've had this conversation before but it always boils back down to the fact that your expectations aren't based in any sort of fact based examination of what a #7 pick is likely to become or even an evaluation of the options the Leafs actually had available to them. It's just what you "think" a top 10 pick should be.

When you look at forwards drafted where Kadri was drafted in a historical context the idea that a regular 20 goal/60 point+ scorer is common enough to be a default expectation just has no basis in reality.

 

[KW Sluggo]

Now is clearly the time to trade Kadri.

After his hat trick, his value has never been higher and, sadly, his cost to the Leafs has never been greater.

They can't even lose properly.

Unbelievable.

 

[cujo4ever]

Nice 3 assist night for Brown. Kadri with a great game as well. Leafs have the most points of any Canadian team since the trade deadline, which is screwing up the tank, but it sure is fun to watch!

 

[Frank E]

Nice 3 assist night for Brown. Kadri with a great game as well. Leafs have the most points of any Canadian team since the trade deadline, which is screwing up the tank, but it sure is fun to watch!

I quite like Brown's game.

I know we can't be setting expectations based on handful of games, especially when they're showcasing themselves for next year, but these Marlies kids are consistently making nice NHL plays.

 

[ZBBM]

What's unrealistic about expecting a top 10 draft pick to score more than 15 goals or whatever he's done so far this year?

We've had this conversation before but it always boils back down to the fact that your expectations aren't based in any sort of fact based examination of what a #7 pick is likely to become or even an evaluation of the options the Leafs actually had available to them. It's just what you "think" a top 10 pick should be.

When you look at forwards drafted where Kadri was drafted in a historical context the idea that a regular 20 goal/60 point+ scorer is common enough to be a default expectation just has no basis in reality.

I don't have time to do this but I bet if you look at all the forwards ever drafted in the top 10 they would average more than 15 goals per year.  That would be a fact, would it not? 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't have time to do this but I bet if you look at all the forwards ever drafted in the top 10 they would average more than 15 goals per year.  That would be a fact, would it not? 

Just for the record, Kadri has 81 goals in 324 games, so he's averaging 20 goals per an 82-game season.

 

[herman]

I don't have time to do this but I bet if you look at all the forwards ever drafted in the top 10 they would average more than 15 goals per year.  That would be a fact, would it not?

Let's just look at Kadri's NHL numbers to date:
324 GP | 81 G | 115 A
That's a little under 4 82 game seasons (3.95ish), so that calcs out to approximately 20.5 goals, 49.62 pts per 82 game season.

This is all while playing on losing teams, two season of which the Leafs were at the bottom of the barrel.

EDIT:
For his Draft year 2009
This is the G/82 Rank for forwards:
1st pick Tavares (32.7)
3rd pick Duchene (25.9)
4th pick Kane (24.8 )
7th pick Kadri (20.5)
5th pick Schenn (19.4)
10th pick Paajarvi-Svensson (10.3)
8th pick Glennie (0)

 

[ZBBM]

That's all very interesting.  Do the same exercise for Joffrey Lupul and you get 28/82.  Get my point?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's all very interesting.  Do the same exercise for Joffrey Lupul and you get 28/82.  Get my point?

Ok, but even if you didn't pro-rate it to an 82-game schedule, his 4 full NHL seasons have goal totals of 18, 20, 18, and 17. That's an average of 18.25. And the first one was a half season. And the last one hasn't been completed yet.

 

[Kin]

I don't have time to do this but I bet if you look at all the forwards ever drafted in the top 10 they would average more than 15 goals per year.  That would be a fact, would it not?

No. Something that you think might be true if you had the time to look into it is not a fact. 

 

[ZBBM]

Look, guys, feel free to run numbers all afternoon but in the end nobody other than me gets to adjudicate my expectations.  At worst, you can claim that my expectations unreasonable based on some statistical analysis of the kind I suggested.  But I guarantee you that whatever you find will not be enough to, in any reasonable sense, call my opinion of Kadri as "mildly disappointing" unreasonable.

 

[ZBBM]

I don't have time to do this but I bet if you look at all the forwards ever drafted in the top 10 they would average more than 15 goals per year.  That would be a fact, would it not?

No. Something that you think might be true if you had the time to look into it is not a fact.

Haha.  Try again, Nik.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't have time to do this but I bet if you look at all the forwards ever drafted in the top 10 they would average more than 15 goals per year.  That would be a fact, would it not?

No. Something that you think might be true if you had the time to look into it is not a fact.

Never mind the fact that it would be a pretty meaningless number, any way, as it would almost certainly be disproportionately influenced by forwards drafted in the top 2 or 3 spots.

 

[herman]

Look, guys, feel free to run numbers all afternoon but in the end nobody other than me gets to adjudicate my expectations.  At worst, you can claim that my expectations unreasonable based on some statistical analysis of the kind I suggested.  But I guarantee you that whatever you find will not be enough to, in any reasonable sense, call my opinion of Kadri as "mildly disappointing" unreasonable.

That's very true when we're not working within the same framework of reasons. But that's kind of what happens when we say stuff on a discussion forum.

 

[ZBBM]

Look, guys, feel free to run numbers all afternoon but in the end nobody other than me gets to adjudicate my expectations.  At worst, you can claim that my expectations unreasonable based on some statistical analysis of the kind I suggested.  But I guarantee you that whatever you find will not be enough to, in any reasonable sense, call my opinion of Kadri as "mildly disappointing" unreasonable.

That's very true when we're not working within the same framework of reasons. But that's kind of what happens when we say stuff on a discussion forum.

Exactly.  And I have to say I'm not sure why people are getting bent out of shape over some pretty mild criticism of one player.  Kadri's done a lot of good things this year.  I'd just rather have Bozak if it came down to a choice between them, which it may not, even.  Not a big deal.

 

[Kin]

Never mind the fact that it would be a pretty meaningless number, any way, as it would almost certainly be disproportionately influenced by forwards drafted in the top 2 or 3 spots.

Right. Nobody could say with a straight face that what Sidney Crosby has done in his career should in any way influence someone's expectations for Kadri despite the fact that they're both "top 10 picks".

Extremely unscientifically I looked at about 10 drafts from '03 to '12 and in terms of forwards picked in the 7-10 spots you're odds are going to get a NHL player but the odds of getting someone significantly better than Kadri are pretty low. It's not reasonable to expect a coin to land Heads on a single flip and the numbers we're talking about aren't anywhere near as good. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Forwards drafted 4th-10th from the 2005-2011 drafts:

Kadri is tied for 10th among 35 players in points per game. Tied for 7th in goals.

The average ended up being 0.22 goals per game and 0.55 points per game. So Kadri's above average in both cases.

 

[herman]

Look, guys, feel free to run numbers all afternoon but in the end nobody other than me gets to adjudicate my expectations.  At worst, you can claim that my expectations unreasonable based on some statistical analysis of the kind I suggested.  But I guarantee you that whatever you find will not be enough to, in any reasonable sense, call my opinion of Kadri as "mildly disappointing" unreasonable.

That's very true when we're not working within the same framework of reasons. But that's kind of what happens when we say stuff on a discussion forum.

Exactly.  And I have to say I'm not sure why people are getting bent out of shape over some pretty mild criticism of one player.  Kadri's done a lot of good things this year.  I'd just rather have Bozak if it came down to a choice between them, which it may not, even.  Not a big deal.

I think you're more than welcome to that opinion (keep Bozak over Kadri), but because it implies that you believe Bozak is the better player compared to Kadri, the numbers will come out. And ultimately, numbers are a more solid common ground for discussions to take place over, rather than impressions and opinions.

People who do go the extra mile to crunch the numbers probably don't appreciate those that insist on a non-numerically substantiated stance. Ultimately, the community benefits from seeing as many sides of the discussion as possible so long as it doesn't devolve into personal attacks (though I can also see how some might construe a table of numbers to be a holier-than-thou-art personal jab).