Leafs @ Sabres - Nov. 3rd, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050

[Heroic Shrimp]

Marner - 3G 5A 8P in 11GP
Matthews - 6G 4A 10P in 11GP
Nylander - 4G 7A 11P in 11GP
Zaitsev - 0G 5A 5P in 11GP

It's at this point that I remind everyone that Kadri led the team with 45 points last year.

How many Leafs will be on the NHL all-rookie team at the end of the year?  We could fairly easily have 3, though I can't see a sweep of the forward positions.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/myregularface/status/794392949576597505

Jeeeze, Girgensons gets about 3 whacks at the puck before Smith even remembers he's playing right then.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Agreed (with Nik). And I worry that Andersen's hot streak is concealing what's not working and justifying some poor line-up decisions. The 4th line's been caved in the last few games (Smith isn't working), the Bozak line's only been good at moments, and Nylander-Matthews are generating but not converting at 5v5.

How is generating chances but not converting a problem?  If they weren't getting chances maybe, but it's not like the lineup construction makes their great chances not go in.

 

[TBLeafer]

Andersen I'm sure will have multiple peaks and valleys in his tenure.

Instead of worrying about sustainability ATM, let's just enjoy the peaks for the time being and appreciate that he's currently on one.

GO LEAFS GO!!!

 

[Kin]

Andersen I'm sure will have multiple peaks and valleys in his tenure.

Instead of worrying about sustainability ATM, let's just enjoy the peaks for the time being and appreciate that he's currently on one.

You can say things like this as many times as you want, people here are still going to be interested in separating the signal from the noise in the early season numbers.

 

[TBLeafer]

Andersen I'm sure will have multiple peaks and valleys in his tenure.

Instead of worrying about sustainability ATM, let's just enjoy the peaks for the time being and appreciate that he's currently on one.

You can say things like this as many times as you want, people here are still going to be interested in separating the signal from the noise in the early season numbers.

I saw a historical chart on Andersen. I'll see if I can find it again for you.

 

[herman]

Amazing weird streak continues: the Leafs are 4-0 when Nylander does not record a point, and 0-4-3.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm Stephen and Jon is Corsica telling me what Smith's CF% was last night.

 

[Zee]

Amazing weird streak continues: the Leafs are 4-0 when Nylander does not record a point, and 0-4-3.

This too shall pass.

 

[TBLeafer]

You can say things like this as many times as you want, people here are still going to be interested in separating the signal from the noise in the early season numbers.

Found it.  Phew.  My eyes didn't deceive me.

http://theleafsnation.com/2016/10/31/how-unusual-was-frederik-andersen-s-cold-streak

And then there's this:

[tweet]793151822148034560[/tweet]

Leafs Geeks Podcast ‏@LeafsGeeks  Oct 31
@TLNdc @draglikepull Great read, all good goalies go through peaks and valleys. It's the nature of the Sv% variance. Just look at this mess:

 

[Kin]

That's all terrific and everything but I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. I said his current high isn't sustainable and I didn't think his low was either.

The problem is they're really only hanging around these games because they're getting unsustainably high goaltending. They've scored only 10 goals in their last five games but are 3-2. That's not sustainable either.

 

[mr grieves]

Agreed (with Nik). And I worry that Andersen's hot streak is concealing what's not working and justifying some poor line-up decisions. The 4th line's been caved in the last few games (Smith isn't working), the Bozak line's only been good at moments, and Nylander-Matthews are generating but not converting at 5v5.

How is generating chances but not converting a problem?  If they weren't getting chances maybe, but it's not like the lineup construction makes their great chances not go in.

"Generating" implies chances, but I don't know if they're really that. A lot of the plays seem to die around the net, about when Hyman takes a pass from Nylander out of a crowd. They seem dangerous in the zone, and then plays seem to peter out. Some of their slowing down at evens seems bad luck -- rebounds going past Matthews and the like -- but some, to me, seems to be the mix of personnel.

 

[TBLeafer]

That's all terrific and everything but I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. I said his current high isn't sustainable and I didn't think his low was either.

The problem is they're really only hanging around these games because they're getting unsustainably high goaltending. They've scored only 10 goals in their last five games but are 3-2. That's not sustainable either.

So what is your statute of limitations on "sustainable"?

 

[Kin]

That's all terrific and everything but I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. I said his current high isn't sustainable and I didn't think his low was either.

The problem is they're really only hanging around these games because they're getting unsustainably high goaltending. They've scored only 10 goals in their last five games but are 3-2. That's not sustainable either.

So what is your statute of limitations on "sustainable"?

I don't know what you're asking me.

 

[herman]

In my mind, I imagine Andersen calmly says "F*** you" every time he makes a stop. And silently in his head everytime he has to answer a media question like this:

You at all aware of Toronto's difficulties in this building?
Andersen: "No"
Only JVR, Bozak, Kadri, Komarov remain from previous win in BUF
? Mark Masters (@markhmasters) November 4, 2016

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Agreed (with Nik). And I worry that Andersen's hot streak is concealing what's not working and justifying some poor line-up decisions. The 4th line's been caved in the last few games (Smith isn't working), the Bozak line's only been good at moments, and Nylander-Matthews are generating but not converting at 5v5.

How is generating chances but not converting a problem?  If they weren't getting chances maybe, but it's not like the lineup construction makes their great chances not go in.

"Generating" implies chances, but I don't know if they're really that. A lot of the plays seem to die around the net, about when Hyman takes a pass from Nylander out of a crowd. They seem dangerous in the zone, and then plays seem to peter out. Some of their slowing down at evens seems bad luck -- rebounds going past Matthews and the like -- but some, to me, seems to be the mix of personnel.

I can think off the top of my head of at least 3 or 4 prime 5v5 chances that line has had in the last couple games that weren't converted to go along with the bunch of chances they had vs. Montreal that didn't result in a goal. 

 

[TBLeafer]

I don't know what you're asking me.

Well, sustainable can mean sustainable over a ten game period... sustainable over a season... sustainable over multiple seasons...

Yes of course it stands to reason that extreme highs and lows aren't sustainable over long stretches.  But when those highs are achieved credit is still given.

The Leafs blowing leads in the third obviously wasn't sustainable, either. So I'm looking for clarification as to what you mean as "sustainable".

 

[Kin]

Well, sustainable can mean sustainable over a ten game period... sustainable over a season... sustainable over multiple seasons...

Yes of course it stands to reason that extreme highs and lows aren't sustainable over long stretches.  But when those highs are achieved credit is still given.

The Leafs blowing leads in the third obviously wasn't sustainable, either. So I'm looking for clarification as to what you mean as "sustainable".

I'm talking about a player playing at a level that they're unlikely to continue. Even from game to game. A player might score two goals one night and even be "hot" but it's still not likely that they'll score two goals the next night. So when you're winning when a goalie posts a .950 save percentage it's still not likely that you're going to get a similar performance the next night.

What that adds up to is that the somewhat better results the Leafs have seen of late isn't terribly indicative of future success as the way they're winning(not scoring many goals, needing the goalie to stop 38 shots a night) isn't a good way to go about things and indicates some problems underneath the superficially good results.

That's not a case of not "giving credit" to players who are playing well, Andersen and Marner both played well last night, it's pointing out that the team can't expect to keep winning the way they have.

 

[TBLeafer]

Well, sustainable can mean sustainable over a ten game period... sustainable over a season... sustainable over multiple seasons...

Yes of course it stands to reason that extreme highs and lows aren't sustainable over long stretches.  But when those highs are achieved credit is still given.

The Leafs blowing leads in the third obviously wasn't sustainable, either. So I'm looking for clarification as to what you mean as "sustainable".

I'm talking about a player playing at a level that they're unlikely to continue. Even from game to game. A player might score two goals one night and even be "hot" but it's still not likely that they'll score two goals the next night. So when you're winning when a goalie posts a .950 save percentage it's still not likely that you're going to get a similar performance the next night.

What that adds up to is that the somewhat better results the Leafs have seen of late isn't terribly indicative of future success as the way they're winning(not scoring many goals, needing the goalie to stop 38 shots a night) isn't a good way to go about things and indicates some problems underneath the superficially good results.

That's not a case of not "giving credit" to players who are playing well, Andersen and Marner both played well last night, it's pointing out that the team can't expect to keep winning the way they have.

Well you are right about that.  They will find out all different ways to continue to win as they grow. 

 

[mr grieves]

Agreed (with Nik). And I worry that Andersen's hot streak is concealing what's not working and justifying some poor line-up decisions. The 4th line's been caved in the last few games (Smith isn't working), the Bozak line's only been good at moments, and Nylander-Matthews are generating but not converting at 5v5.

How is generating chances but not converting a problem?  If they weren't getting chances maybe, but it's not like the lineup construction makes their great chances not go in.

"Generating" implies chances, but I don't know if they're really that. A lot of the plays seem to die around the net, about when Hyman takes a pass from Nylander out of a crowd. They seem dangerous in the zone, and then plays seem to peter out. Some of their slowing down at evens seems bad luck -- rebounds going past Matthews and the like -- but some, to me, seems to be the mix of personnel.

I can think off the top of my head of at least 3 or 4 prime 5v5 chances that line has had in the last couple games that weren't converted to go along with the bunch of chances they had vs. Montreal that didn't result in a goal.

Well, 1.5 to 2 in each of the last two games is about what I'd put it at... I'd just hope for more. Yes, I guess it's only been a 'problem' recently, but now that elements of the performance -- quantity of really good chances -- is starting to fall in line with results (0 5v5 goals since... game #2 was it?), a change of some sort wouldn't be terrible. I'm eager to see such a thing because this is a development year, which, as much as seeing how guys play through patches of bad luck, means experimenting with what you've got.