Leafs search for a new coach/GM

[TML fan]

But I said that within the context of saying that teams don't have to suck for 5-8 years if they're relatively patient and can build through other means. Even if Edmonton can build on what they have now, and that's no sure thing with such a lack of talent in net and on the blue line, they'll be at about 10 years of being solidly terrible because they were so impatient and did such a bad job of adding talent in any sphere outside of the top 10 of the draft.

I don't think anyone wants the Leafs to only maybe be looking at being back in a playoff spot 10 years from now.

I think that's the key. When you look at the teams that managed to turn things around relatively quickly, they all picked up significant pieces in the 2nd round or later. It's drafting well in the later rounds that separates the pretenders from the contenders.

I don't really understand. A team that picks 7 times in the top 10 is less likely to turn it around than a team that picks once in the top 10 but drafts really well in other rounds?

Not trying to be snarky, I actually don't understand the argument.

 

[Frank E]

But I said that within the context of saying that teams don't have to suck for 5-8 years if they're relatively patient and can build through other means. Even if Edmonton can build on what they have now, and that's no sure thing with such a lack of talent in net and on the blue line, they'll be at about 10 years of being solidly terrible because they were so impatient and did such a bad job of adding talent in any sphere outside of the top 10 of the draft.

I don't think anyone wants the Leafs to only maybe be looking at being back in a playoff spot 10 years from now.

I think that's the key. When you look at the teams that managed to turn things around relatively quickly, they all picked up significant pieces in the 2nd round or later. It's drafting well in the later rounds that separates the pretenders from the contenders.

Sure, but that support staff can be added relatively quickly compared to adding the high-end talent.

They could get a pretty decent defenseman for Eberle, sign a goalie, and trade their other high-round picks this year for 22-23 year old bottom-6 contributors.  Hall is healthy again, add in Nurse, Draisaitl, and McDavid of course, and this thing could turn around really fast for Edmonton if Chiarelli plays his cards right.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

But I said that within the context of saying that teams don't have to suck for 5-8 years if they're relatively patient and can build through other means. Even if Edmonton can build on what they have now, and that's no sure thing with such a lack of talent in net and on the blue line, they'll be at about 10 years of being solidly terrible because they were so impatient and did such a bad job of adding talent in any sphere outside of the top 10 of the draft.

I don't think anyone wants the Leafs to only maybe be looking at being back in a playoff spot 10 years from now.

I think that's the key. When you look at the teams that managed to turn things around relatively quickly, they all picked up significant pieces in the 2nd round or later. It's drafting well in the later rounds that separates the pretenders from the contenders.

I don't really understand. A team that picks 7 times in the top 10 is less likely to turn it around than a team that picks once in the top 10 but drafts really well in other rounds?

Not trying to be snarky, I actually don't understand the argument.

I think the argument is that drafting high is great but you need to actually hit on some of your later round picks to really become an elite team.  Basically, because those players not only add depth, but cheap, controllable depth.

 

[Kin]

I don't really understand. A team that picks 7 times in the top 10 is less likely to turn it around than a team that picks once in the top 10 but drafts really well in other rounds?

Not trying to be snarky, I actually don't understand the argument.

Well, ok, from the key words in busta's post are "relatively quickly". Frank seems to think he's in a conversation with someone who doesn't think the Oilers have built a good collection of young talent. He's not. They have. It's undeniable. But to get where they are now it took them basically 9 years of being terrible and that stands in pretty stark contrast to how Chicago and LA were able to build the teams they did in much less time because they weren't terrible at basically everything other than tanking.

 

[disco]

Thanks CTB (always apprectiate your helpful GDTs) and Highlander for the welcome.

I have a friend who's a Hawks die-harder since forever. I was enjoying the Quinn-era playoff runs and he was enduring the lean years of Thibeault, Daze and co. My how things can change.

Crux of my original post was just that all 30 teams realize now that you have to draft develop your OWN talent, now more than ever before. Hard cap league and uber-parity means that 29 other teams are doing exactly what you are.  Getting an elite player via trade or free agency is just so rare these days.

Edmonton is an interesting case, but I think the exception to, rather than the rule that drafting a variety of elite-level players eventually leads to sustained success, long playoff runs and Stanley Cups (along with a solid support group of cheap, later round talent and odd the odd free agent/trade etc.) because it does (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Boston, LA).

I guess in one camp are people saying you do have to tank and in another are those saying that you don't really have to. I would be more in the former just because trade and free agency has become very, very difficult to get elite players. And elite players win you cups.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't really understand. A team that picks 7 times in the top 10 is less likely to turn it around than a team that picks once in the top 10 but drafts really well in other rounds?

Not trying to be snarky, I actually don't understand the argument.

In a lot of ways, yes. They're going to be able to turn things around much more quickly, because they'll have accumulated the talent in a shorter span. They're also going to have less cap constraints when they get there, because they'll have less of their key players knocking on the door of unrestricted free agency - and, if they get lucky, they could still have a bunch on their entry level deals when the team takes the next step. They're also going to be less reliant on the free agent market to fill out their roster because they'll have the talent already in the system. That will also help them with the cap and will help them ice a more cost effective lineup.

And, really, if you're drafting in the top 10 for 7+ years, are you really turning anything around? That means your team has been awful for almost a decade. At that point, you're running the risk of losing key pieces as UFAs or having them exit their prime seasons without your team having accomplished anything.

 

[TML fan]

Gotcha. Thanks!

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

But I said that within the context of saying that teams don't have to suck for 5-8 years if they're relatively patient and can build through other means. Even if Edmonton can build on what they have now, and that's no sure thing with such a lack of talent in net and on the blue line, they'll be at about 10 years of being solidly terrible because they were so impatient and did such a bad job of adding talent in any sphere outside of the top 10 of the draft.

I don't think anyone wants the Leafs to only maybe be looking at being back in a playoff spot 10 years from now.

I think that's the key. When you look at the teams that managed to turn things around relatively quickly, they all picked up significant pieces in the 2nd round or later. It's drafting well in the later rounds that separates the pretenders from the contenders.

Sure, but that support staff can be added relatively quickly compared to adding the high-end talent.

They could get a pretty decent defenseman for Eberle, sign a goalie, and trade their other high-round picks this year for 22-23 year old bottom-6 contributors.  Hall is healthy again, add in Nurse, Draisaitl, and McDavid of course, and this thing could turn around really fast for Edmonton if Chiarelli plays his cards right.

I don't want to deflate the bubble, but Draisaitl and Nurse have done absolutely nothing at the NHL level as of yet (even though they're quite young) and may take awhile longer until they're ready to contribute to a contending team.

Yakupov as been extremely average, verging on bust levels of inconsistent.

So sure they have potential but as of the moment that's all it is.

 

[bustaheims]

They could get a pretty decent defenseman for Eberle, sign a goalie, and trade their other high-round picks this year for 22-23 year old bottom-6 contributors.

You say some of these things like they're simple moves. Moving Eberle is a difficult move. He comes with a big contract and he's really a complimentary piece rather than the focal point of a line. I don't think he brings back the type of defenceman you're talking about without the Oilers adding a significant piece. Signing a goalie is also not exactly an easy move - the UFA market is filled with guys at the end of their careers, backups and guys you have to hope will have a bounce back (or another bounce back) season. There's usually not many (if any) clear #1 goalies available. And those 22-23 y/o bottom 6 contributors? The good ones aren't being moved. Those are the pieces you need to develop in house or pick up as cheap UFAs.

 

[Kin]

You say some of these things like they're simple moves. Moving Eberle is a difficult move. He comes with a big contract and he's really a complimentary piece rather than the focal point of a line. I don't think he brings back the type of defenceman you're talking about without the Oilers adding a significant piece.

I wanted to highlight this because it dovetails nicely with something I was thinking about recently. A while back on one of the rare good instances of sports radio I heard a panel talk about how the scoring leaders would finish with such unimpressive totals this year and how the best forwards in the game were having less impact relative to everyone else on the ice than ever before. Then I watched the World Championships this year and was struck by the seeming disparity in talent between Canada's forward group, which basically looks like an all-star team, and their defense which has a bunch of guys who, frankly, I had to find out what team they're on.

A good blueline is driving the best teams these days. Not an impressive list of forward talent. Obviously the best teams have both but with regards to the World Championship roster...who's the best defenseman who said no? Doughty obviously, but after that? Vlasic? Phaneuf? Dougie Hamilton?

Simply put just about every team with elite defensemen made the playoffs. Just about all of the ones without them didn't. Trading for top pairing blueliners in this environment is going to be very, very difficult.

 

[herman]

You say some of these things like they're simple moves. Moving Eberle is a difficult move. He comes with a big contract and he's really a complimentary piece rather than the focal point of a line. I don't think he brings back the type of defenceman you're talking about without the Oilers adding a significant piece.

I wanted to highlight this because it dovetails nicely with something I was thinking about recently. A while back on one of the rare good instances of sports radio I heard a panel talk about how the scoring leaders would finish with such unimpressive totals this year and how the best forwards in the game were having less impact relative to everyone else on the ice than ever before. Then I watched the World Championships this year and was struck by the seeming disparity in talent between Canada's forward group, which basically looks like an all-star team, and their defense which has a bunch of guys who, frankly, I had to find out what team they're on.

A good blueline is driving the best teams these days. Not an impressive list of forward talent. Obviously the best teams have both but with regards to the World Championship roster...who's the best defenseman who said no? Doughty obviously, but after that? Vlasic? Phaneuf? Dougie Hamilton?

Simply put just about every team with elite defensemen made the playoffs. Just about all of the ones without them didn't. Trading for top pairing blueliners in this environment is going to be very, very difficult.

Great observation. So.... Hanafin?

Also: Guy Boucher's interview on TSN Drive

In the Q, when asked about the effect his system might have had on junior hockey and if it was being mimicked across the league, Boucher said:

I wouldn?t be pretentious enough to say I had that much impact, either positive or negative on an entire league,? he said. ?His comments were about the fact that some teams were playing the same defensive style that we had. The funny thing is my teams were always the No. 1 offensive teams. We were first in the league in junior in offense, the same last year in the American League (at Hamilton). This year we are the top team in the NHL. We spend 80 percent of our time working on offense. If you watch our practices you?ll see, so that?s all I?m focusing on.

I want to see the Leafs play a proper possession structure to encourage dump-ins with their neutral zone pressure, activate their quick mobile defense to move the puck North immediately, and churn their opponents around in their own zone with a strong cycle for multiple chances per shift.

 

[Kin]

Great observation. So.... Hanafin?

Any opinion I could give about one prospect vs. another would be almost entirely uninformed so all I'll say is that regardless of how the top three plays out I won't be disappointed.

 

[Frank E]

You say some of these things like they're simple moves. Moving Eberle is a difficult move. He comes with a big contract and he's really a complimentary piece rather than the focal point of a line. I don't think he brings back the type of defenceman you're talking about without the Oilers adding a significant piece.

I don't think they'd have much issue moving Eberle.  A 60 point winger, he's still young, and has 4 years left on his deal at $6mil.  He's a guy that would go to a team looking for some scoring help, and could return a good defenseman.  I don't think any of this is a stretch, as long as we're all speculating.

Signing a goalie is also not exactly an easy move - the UFA market is filled with guys at the end of their careers, backups and guys you have to hope will have a bounce back (or another bounce back) season. There's usually not many (if any) clear #1 goalies available.

There's a dozen or so UFA goalies.  I'm not going to get into every single one of them, but more than a few are serviceable NHL goalies.  I didn't suggest that Edmonton sign the next Brodeur, just upgrade somewhat.

And those 22-23 y/o bottom 6 contributors? The good ones aren't being moved. Those are the pieces you need to develop in house or pick up as cheap UFAs.

Well, that depends on what stage of a rebuild you're in.  If you're the Leafs, you'd be more likely to trade Peter Holland for a 2nd-3rd round pick given that Peter Holland will be 28-30 by the time the Leafs get good.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I just wanted to throw this into the conversation: The Oilers aren't an example of a team that proves that tanking doesn't work, they're a team that proves that having a grossly incompetent front office staff doesn't work.

 

[Kin]

I just wanted to throw this into the conversation: The Oilers aren't an example of a team that proves that tanking doesn't work, they're a team that proves that having a grossly incompetent front office staff doesn't work.

Yeah, I mean I know I make this analogy a lot but being impressed with the collection of young talent the Oilers have put together is like being impressed by the financial acumen of someone who wins Lotto 649.

 

[L K]

I just wanted to throw this into the conversation: The Oilers aren't an example of a team that proves that tanking doesn't work, they're a team that proves that having a grossly incompetent front office staff doesn't work.

Yeah, I mean I know I make this analogy a lot but being impressed with the collection of young talent the Oilers have put together is like being impressed by the financial acumen of someone who wins Lotto 649.

I'd take it a step further and honestly compare the Oilers to the person who spends $20 each week for 20 years and then celebrates winning $50,000.  Sure, you won a nice chunk of change but over that 20 year period you spent $20,000.  Yes, on the whole you net a positive but you could have done so much more with that $20,000 over the previous years.

Just to make that distinction from the person who is a one-off winner.  That way it takes into account the years of ineptitude.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I just wanted to throw this into the conversation: The Oilers aren't an example of a team that proves that tanking doesn't work, they're a team that proves that having a grossly incompetent front office staff doesn't work.

Yeah, I mean I know I make this analogy a lot but being impressed with the collection of young talent the Oilers have put together is like being impressed by the financial acumen of someone who wins Lotto 649.

I'd take it a step further and honestly compare the Oilers to the person who spends $20 each week for 20 years and then celebrates winning $50,000.  Sure, you won a nice chunk of change but over that 20 year period you spent $20,000.  Yes, on the whole you net a positive but you could have done so much more with that $20,000 over the previous years.

Just to make that distinction from the person who is a one-off winner.  That way it takes into account the years of ineptitude.

Or somebody who wins the lottery and then keeps their winnings in a box under their bed.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I don't know about you, but I'm high-fiving the guy surviving off $20.00 per week.

 

[Kin]

I don't think they'd have much issue moving Eberle.  A 60 point winger, he's still young, and has 4 years left on his deal at $6mil.  He's a guy that would go to a team looking for some scoring help, and could return a good defenseman.  I don't think any of this is a stretch, as long as we're all speculating.

That's where actually mentioning some specifics might clear things up. You're right that Eberle is relatively easy to trade but when it comes to a specific sort of return that's where you're on thin ice. Like, Eberle won't get traded for a 24 year old top pairing defensman. He won't get traded for someone like Ekblad.

Eberle's not good enough that another team would look at him and say "Jordan Eberle's available!?!?". You're probably only talking about a return of players that a team was fairly open to trading anyway.

So what are you talking about? I mean if I were the Leafs I'd probably do Phaneuf for Eberle if only because I then think Eberle could be turned around and dealt for a better combination of picks/prospects. Would I do Eberle for Gardiner...I mean, maybe?

 

[Frank E]

I don't think they'd have much issue moving Eberle.  A 60 point winger, he's still young, and has 4 years left on his deal at $6mil.  He's a guy that would go to a team looking for some scoring help, and could return a good defenseman.  I don't think any of this is a stretch, as long as we're all speculating.

That's where actually mentioning some specifics might clear things up. You're right that Eberle is relatively easy to trade but when it comes to a specific sort of return that's where you're on thin ice. Like, Eberle won't get traded for a 24 year old top pairing defensman. He won't get traded for someone like Ekblad.

Eberle's not good enough that another team would look at him and say "Jordan Eberle's available!?!?". You're probably only talking about a return of players that a team was fairly open to trading anyway.

So what are you talking about? I mean if I were the Leafs I'd probably do Phaneuf for Eberle if only because I then think Eberle could be turned around and dealt for a better combination of picks/prospects. Would I do Eberle for Gardiner...I mean, maybe?

I think I lost track of my point over the past day or so, but I think it was more to do with the assertion that Edmonton has done a good job of acquiring top end talent through losing a lot, for a long time.  Granted, not planned, but still, job done.  Not enough good 2nd-3rd round picks, but as I mentioned, I think those are much easier pieces to add on the fly.

I'm not saying that Edmonton planned to win a lottery, and planned to be awful.  I'm just saying that the result of this terribleness is a pretty nice bunch of players with high ceilings, and a good framework to work with to build a champion.
 
Eberle would not return Ekblad. I agree.  Would he return a guy like Gardiner?  I think he probably would.  I'm not sure I'd do Phaneuf for Eberle, but using your rationale of flipping Eberle for something else, I could be convinced.