Lightning @ Leafs - Apr. 6th, 7:30pm - TSN, TSN 1050

[herman]

If we could all predict how a hockey game turns out by looking at lineup cards and records there'd be no point watching.

Hockey results are still very much luck derived where team skill and systems try to stack the probabilities in their favour. It's a game of mistakes and some nights you don't cash in on the ones you encounter and create, and some nights you do.

Despite what Kucherov demonstrated last night, no one can truly will goals to happen, only try to set up an environment in which it becomes very likely.

 

[Kin]

When you have 4 remaining home games to end the season, and missing the playoffs means you would lose all 4 in regulation, how can you not be invested?

Pretty easily. I've never really thought them making the playoffs was of huge importance and it's dead simple to maintain that.

 

[L K]

When you have 4 remaining home games to end the season, and missing the playoffs means you would lose all 4 in regulation, how can you not be invested?

Pretty easily. I've never really thought them making the playoffs was of huge importance and it's dead simple to maintain that.

I think this is fair.  If you look at our preseason prediction thread, only a single poster put the Leafs in legitimate playoff contention at 93 points.    It's still frustrating to see just how far away from being a legitimate contender this team is.  I'm mildly concerned that they won't have the opportunity to find that defenseman who fills the role that they need.

 

[Zee]

When you have 4 remaining home games to end the season, and missing the playoffs means you would lose all 4 in regulation, how can you not be invested?

Pretty easily. I've never really thought them making the playoffs was of huge importance and it's dead simple to maintain that.

I think this is fair.  If you look at our preseason prediction thread, only a single poster put the Leafs in legitimate playoff contention at 93 points.    It's still frustrating to see just how far away from being a legitimate contender this team is.  I'm mildly concerned that they won't have the opportunity to find that defenseman who fills the role that they need.

There's not one guy on that team that would look back on this season as a success if they fall short here.  It doesn't matter that they overachieved all season, accumulated way more points than anyone expected.  When you push right to the brink, where you only need 1 more win out of 4 HOME GAMES, it's fairly pathetic if they're not able to accomplish that.  In 78 games leading up to the last 4, there was never a stretch all season where the Leafs played 4 straight games and didn't get at least 2 points.  To save that feat for the very last 4 games where a win puts them into the playoffs is a huge failure. 

 

[Kin]

There's not one guy on that team that would look back on this season as a success if they fall short here.

I don't care all that much how the guys on the team see the season but to the extent I do, I'm not sure them being frustrated by the end is all that worse than them looking back on it as a success. So long as it drives them to come back next year and work harder, failure can be a motivating factor.

  It doesn't matter that they overachieved all season, accumulated way more points than anyone expected. 

Well, that's just not true. Those things matter to me. They impact how I'll see the season and how I'll feel going forward. If you want to stew and explode about a team having a much better year than almost anyone expected you're certainly free to but it's not a universal truth.

 

[Zee]

There's not one guy on that team that would look back on this season as a success if they fall short here.

I don't care all that much how the guys on the team see the season but to the extent I do, I'm not sure them being frustrated by the end is all that worse than them looking back on it as a success. So long as it drives them to come back next year and work harder, failure can be a motivating factor.

  It doesn't matter that they overachieved all season, accumulated way more points than anyone expected. 

Well, that's just not true. Those things matter to me. They impact how I'll see the season and how I'll feel going forward. If you want to stew and explode about a team having a much better year than almost anyone expected you're certainly free to but it's not a universal truth.

Until a group of players proves they can play with pressure it'll hang over their heads.  If they don't make it this year, next year when they're close the same questions will arise, "can you win when it matters most?"  Pressure is the equalizing factor in all sports, those that can perform when the pressure is on are winners, those that can't are the forgotten losers.  I don't want this new core to start out with that loser tag hanging on them.  It's been too good of a season to have it end like this.

 

[Highlander]

Both teams played chippie pond hockey, not fun to watch, all structure was out the window and their goalie was better than Freddie for one night. Painful

 

[Kin]

Until a group of players proves they can play with pressure it'll hang over their heads.  If they don't make it this year, next year when they're close the same questions will arise, "can you win when it matters most?" 

That's only if you buy into the preconceived narrative you're already drawing up. If the Leafs don't win either of their next games will it be because they "choked" or "folded" or will it be because the Leafs are an imperfect team going up against the #2 and #4 teams in the entire NHL and they can't just choose to win a game because they really want to?

Which likewise can be extended backwards. Their last four games of the season will include two second nights of back to backs, they'll play three of the top four teams in the entire league and will play no bad teams. None of these games were gimmes. We all knew that they were going to have a tough end to the season and the fact that they went on such a tear over the last few weeks didn't change that.

Next year's team will be different. More experienced and, hopefully, better. Sure, they'll face some difficult questions but that will be true no matter how their season ends. If they win their next two games and then get beat in the playoffs it'll be "Can they win in the playoffs?". If they win the first round but get knocked out in the second then next time they're in the second round of the playoffs it'll be "Can they win in the second?". All teams can't win until they do.

 

[Zee]

Until a group of players proves they can play with pressure it'll hang over their heads.  If they don't make it this year, next year when they're close the same questions will arise, "can you win when it matters most?" 

That's only if you buy into the preconceived narrative you're already drawing up. If the Leafs don't win either of their next games will it be because they "choked" or "folded" or will it be because the Leafs are an imperfect team going up against the #2 and #4 teams in the entire NHL and they can't just choose to win a game because they really want to?

Which likewise can be extended backwards. Their last four games of the season will include two second nights of back to backs, they'll play three of the top four teams in the entire league and will play no bad teams. None of these games were gimmes. We all knew that they were going to have a tough end to the season and the fact that they went on such a tear over the last few weeks didn't change that.

Next year's team will be different. More experienced and, hopefully, better. Sure, they'll face some difficult questions but that will be true no matter how their season ends. If they win their next two games and then get beat in the playoffs it'll be "Can they win in the playoffs?". If they win the first round but get knocked out in the second then next time they're in the second round of the playoffs it'll be "Can they win in the second?". All teams can't win until they do.

If you can't even agree that this would be a total collapse I don't know what to say to you.  Sure the Washington game was a tough back to back, but last night was a loss against a quasi AHL team, and on Sunday, Columbus will also be on a back to back, and have nothing to play for.  If the Leafs can't get 2 points this weekend, it's a huge failure.

 

[Kin]

Sure the Washington game was a tough back to back, but last night was a loss against a quasi AHL team, and on Sunday, Columbus will also be on a back to back, and have nothing to play for.

That's just not true about last night's Lightning team. They had Kucherov, who's 6th in the league in scoring. They had Hedman, who'll be a Norris finalist. They had Drouin and Palat and Stralman. They had their #1 goalie. The difference between the Lightning and an AHL team isn't Cedric Paquette and Tyler Johnson.

And sure, Columbus and Pittsburgh don't have much to play for but we don't know how that will affect their strategy going into the weekend. Not everyone likes to take their foot off the pedal. They may go all out all the same. To pre-emptively say the Leafs should beat them is nonsense. They're very good teams. If they decide to show up the Leafs will be in tough and that would be true no matter where the Leafs were in the standings.

 

[azzurri63]

Their performance has really pi**ed me off

What a joke of an effort.

Tough for me to think this was an effort issue this late in the season. Something else is lacking.

Stop watching. 11-2-1 before Washington and Tampa. You're pathetic. I still love 'em.

I'm pathetic? Just because they had everything in their favour tonight. Everything! And they still came up with this performance. I'm the one who's pathetic? KMA, my friend. I've been watching this team longer than you've been alive and yet I'm still here. I have every right as a fan to be teed off and not look at them through rose coloured glasses.

This was extremely disappointing. Now they play 2 of the best teams in the NHL and will need to play an awful lot better and have now set themselves up for the Caps -if they make it.

Im with you 100%. Been following this team for ages and would never change that. been through a lot with this team going back with the Ballard days. Said it earlier this year couldn't be happier with this team. No one expected this I sure didn't but it would be a shame to miss the playoffs which I don't think is going to happen by the way. getting in is icing on the cake but games like tonight get me frustrated as well. Effort just wasn't there considering what was on the line.We talked the other night about making it and I agree a Cap series would be short lived unfortunately. Sure some say you have to play the regardless but I'm not expecting a Stanley Cup run but would be unbelievable to go to the second round.

 

[McGarnagle]

I find it sort of funny that the Leafs' unsustainably amazing record over the last 10 has set up the malcontents to tear them to pieces in two failed attempts to seal it.

In the those two games, they played teams which were capable of playing better than the leafs at this stage in their development (yes, even tampa), and they did. It wasn't a question of who wanted it more, or choking, or lack of grit.

 

[wnc096]

I find it sort of funny that the Leafs' unsustainably amazing record over the last 10 has set up the malcontents to tear them to pieces in two failed attempts to seal it.

In the those two games, they played teams which were capable of playing better than the leafs at this stage in their development (yes, even tampa), and they did. It wasn't a question of who wanted it more, or choking, or lack of grit.

Dude...If they lose 4 straight at home and miss the playoffs....that will be a choke job no matter how rose coloured your glasses are

 

[Bender]

As opposed to having a normal record where they'd be on the outside looking in, right?

 

[Zee]

As opposed to having a normal record where they'd be on the outside looking in, right?

What's a "normal" record?  The Leafs pushed and played themselves into a playoff spot only to crap their pants when the games mattered most. Lose 4 in a row at home (for the first time all season mind you) and that's a choke.

 

[Bender]

I really wouldn't look at it that way. They should've played better against Tampa, sure, but Tampa just ran over Montreal as well. They had no business being here before their 14 game run which was nothing short miraculous - you know that.

If the outcomes were closer to their analytics during the run they would've had a couple more losses and instead of "well they crapped the bed" we'd be saying they fought hard but we didn't expect them to make it. Now they are up against two of the best teams in the league on a back to back and they crapped the bed? I wouldn't pick the Leafs in any games against Washington, Pittsburgh or Columbus and Tampa is on their tear now.

And either way no point in bitching since the fat lady hasn't even stepped on stage yet.

 

[McGarnagle]

I really wouldn't look at it that way. They should've played better against Tampa, sure, but Tampa just ran over Montreal as well. They had no business being here before their 14 game run which was nothing short miraculous - you know that.

If the outcomes were closer to their analytics during the run they would've had a couple more losses and instead of "well they crapped the bed" we'd be saying they fought hard but we didn't expect them to make it. Now they are up against two of the best teams in the league on a back to back and they crapped the bed? I wouldn't pick the Leafs in any games against Washington, Pittsburgh or Columbus and Tampa is on their tear now.

And either way no point in bitching since the fat lady hasn't even stepped on stage yet.

Well put.  8)

 

[Bender]

https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/850773492312281089

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/850773492312281089

If the Islanders had called up Halak like a week or two earlier they'd be in the playoffs. He's 5-1 with a .949 save percentage since coming back up from the AHL. If the Leafs make the playoffs they'll have Garth Snow's bizarre decision making there to partially thank for it really.