Lightning @ Leafs - Nov. 4th, 7:00pm - TSN4, Fan 590

[CarltonTheBear]

@

5-3-1, 11 points | 5-4-1, 11 points

Projected Lines

Killorn-Point-Cirelli Palat-Stamkos-Barre?Boulet Maroon-Colton-Perry Joseph-Bellemare-Raddysh Hedman-Sergachev McDonagh-Cernak Sustr-Foote Vasilevskiy ​

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander Kerfoot-Tavares-Marner Engvall-Kampf-Kase Ritchie-Spezza-Simmonds Rielly-Liljegren Muzzin-Brodie Sandin-Holl Campbell​

Scratches

Gabriel Dumont Boris Katchouk Jan Rutta ​

Travis Dermott  ​

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Game Notes

TB
?Vasilevskiy (5-2-1, 2.46 GAA, .915 Sv%) will likely start for the Lightning
?Tampa started the season off 2-3-1 with neither of their wins coming in regulation time. They've since won 3 games in a row with a combined score of 13-4
?After recording 3 points in 4 games in Tampa's bottom-6 Alex Barre-Boulet has been moved up to play with Stamkos

TOR
?Campbell (4-2-1, 1.99 GAA, .929 Sv%) will likely start for the Leafs
?Dermott is day to day after blocking a shot in Tuesday's game. Liljegren replaced him alongside Rielly while Holl skated with Sandin at practice

Injuries

?Zach Bogosian - Lower Body - Injured Reserve ?Nikita Kucherov - Lower Body - Injured Reserve ?Gemel Smith - Lower Body - Injured Reserve ?Boris Katchouk - Undisclosed - Questionable ?Jan Rutta - Undisclosed - Questionable​

?Ilya Mikheyev - Thumb - Injured Reserve ?Travis Dermott - Lower Body - Questionable      ​

Stream Options

BilaSport.net
Sportsurge.net
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[Joe S.]

Season is on the line.

 

[Arn]

4 players on their 2nd forward line? No wonder they keep winning stuff

 

[L K]

Barre Boulet with 1G 2A in 4 GP since being back with Tampa.  Noone claimed this guy but every garbage player we put on waivers gets claimed. I don't understand NHL GMs.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/1456259964532523016

Dermott down a couple of days
Rubins, if you recall, is the next Justin Holl

 

[princedpw]

What would happen if the Leafs did this with their 3rd and 4th lines:

Engvall-Kampf-Simmons
Ritchie-Spezza-Kase

Gives Spezza someone else to pass to better take advantage of his skills.  Balances the speed a bit better.  We weren't getting any offence from the 3rd line anyway.  And make that 3rd line effectively the 4th line/dzone line.

 

[herman]

What would happen if the Leafs did this with their 3rd and 4th lines:

Engvall-Kampf-Simmons
Ritchie-Spezza-Kase

Gives Spezza someone else to pass to better take advantage of his skills.  Balances the speed a bit better.  We weren't getting any offence from the 3rd line anyway.  And make that 3rd line effectively the 4th line/dzone line.

The current 4th line is working because they don't have to worry that much about defense and they all operate at about the same speed (slow). The current 3rd line is working because they're essentially playing in PK mode the whole time, which is just hard work trying to break whatever the opponent is throwing over the boards.

 

[Guilt Trip]

What would happen if the Leafs did this with their 3rd and 4th lines:

Engvall-Kampf-Simmons
Ritchie-Spezza-Kase

Gives Spezza someone else to pass to better take advantage of his skills.  Balances the speed a bit better.  We weren't getting any offence from the 3rd line anyway.  And make that 3rd line effectively the 4th line/dzone line.

The current 4th line is working because they don't have to worry that much about defense and they all operate at about the same speed (slow). The current 3rd line is working because they're essentially playing in PK mode the whole time, which is just hard work trying to break whatever the opponent is throwing over the boards.

I actually like the 3rd line and think they'll be even better when Mikheyev gets back. Kase will come around more as the season goes. He's played more games this season then he did his whole time with Boston.

 

[cujo4ever]

Go Leafs Go!

 

[princedpw]

What would happen if the Leafs did this with their 3rd and 4th lines:

Engvall-Kampf-Simmons
Ritchie-Spezza-Kase

Gives Spezza someone else to pass to better take advantage of his skills.  Balances the speed a bit better.  We weren't getting any offence from the 3rd line anyway.  And make that 3rd line effectively the 4th line/dzone line.

The current 4th line is working because they don't have to worry that much about defense and they all operate at about the same speed (slow). The current 3rd line is working because they're essentially playing in PK mode the whole time, which is just hard work trying to break whatever the opponent is throwing over the boards.

Is the 3rd line working?  10 games in, they have 2 even strength goals (1 by Kampf; 1 by Kase) and they have a bunch scored against -- Kampf is -5 and Kase is -4.  So they are well under water.

 

[Joe S.]

You know what?s a bigger problem which we barely talk about, the lack of goals from the defenceman. It?s kinda weird how that?s evaporated.

They only had 14 goals from their defence last year and only 1 so far this year. I think most teams can count on about 20 goals or so from the back end.

 

[herman]

You know what?s a bigger problem which we barely talk about, the lack of goals from the defenceman. It?s kinda weird how that?s evaporated.

They only had 14 goals from their defence last year and only 1 so far this year. I think most teams can count on about 20 goals or so from the back end.

The Leafs actively discourage their defense from shooting for goals, unless they're open in the slot. Would rather them be getting pucks down to the forwards and keeping plays alive. Point shots are more than likely to be turnovers in larger samples.

Some light reading on the point shot tactic.

 

[Joe S.]

You know what?s a bigger problem which we barely talk about, the lack of goals from the defenceman. It?s kinda weird how that?s evaporated.

They only had 14 goals from their defence last year and only 1 so far this year. I think most teams can count on about 20 goals or so from the back end.

The Leafs actively discourage their defense from shooting for goals, unless they're open in the slot. Would rather them be getting pucks down to the forwards and keeping plays alive. Point shots are more than likely to be turnovers in larger samples.

Some light reading on the point shot tactic.

Interesting thx for sharing.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Is the 3rd line working?  10 games in, they have 2 even strength goals (1 by Kampf; 1 by Kase) and they have a bunch scored against -- Kampf is -5 and Kase is -4.  So they are well under water.

They're doing their job. Their 5-on-5 on-ice goals against figures are a little misleading because the majority of them came in one single game. Both of them have been on the ice for 6 goals against, for Kampf 4 of them came in that one Pittsburgh game and for Kase it was 3. So for 90% of the season they've played low event hockey, kept the puck out of their own net, and taken almost as many defensive zone faceoffs as both the top-2 lines have combined. It's the "Riley Nash" special basically. There might be an argument to be made that you want more offence from a line like that, but I'm not sure swapping Kase for Simmonds would accomplish that and it's clearly not really what Keefe's main objective is for them.

 

[bustaheims]

Is the 3rd line working?  10 games in, they have 2 even strength goals (1 by Kampf; 1 by Kase) and they have a bunch scored against -- Kampf is -5 and Kase is -4.  So they are well under water.

They're doing their job. Their 5-on-5 on-ice goals against figures are a little misleading because the majority of them came in one single game. Both of them have been on the ice for 6 goals against, for Kampf 4 of them came in that one Pittsburgh game and for Kase it was 3. So for 90% of the season they've played low event hockey, kept the puck out of their own net, and taken almost as many defensive zone faceoffs as both the top-2 lines have combined. It's the "Riley Nash" special basically. There might be an argument to be made that you want more offence from a line like that, but I'm not sure swapping Kase for Simmonds would accomplish that and it's clearly not really what Keefe's main objective is for them.

Yeah. They way they've been deployed isn't going to look so good when looking at counting stats like +/-, and the small sample size causes issues with rate stats, as well. Their 5-on-5 possession numbers are mostly positive, though, and they've largely done a good job of getting the puck out of the defensive end. One bad game this early in the season will really skew some of their numbers, but, they've looked pretty good to my eyes.

 

[Joe S.]

The Leafs actively discourage their defense from shooting for goals, unless they're open in the slot. Would rather them be getting pucks down to the forwards and keeping plays alive. Point shots are more than likely to be turnovers in larger samples.

Some light reading on the point shot tactic.

So I just read it. I feel we should be quoting this everytime someone is yelling to shoot in the game day threads.

 

[Kin]

As usual hockey analytics seems to have confused "Is this the absolute best possible tactic which you should employ all the time" with "Should you be able to do something well provided the other team is good at taking away your other options".

 

[ZBBM]

You know what?s a bigger problem which we barely talk about, the lack of goals from the defenceman. It?s kinda weird how that?s evaporated.

They only had 14 goals from their defence last year and only 1 so far this year. I think most teams can count on about 20 goals or so from the back end.

The Leafs actively discourage their defense from shooting for goals, unless they're open in the slot. Would rather them be getting pucks down to the forwards and keeping plays alive. Point shots are more than likely to be turnovers in larger samples.

Some light reading on the point shot tactic.

I didn't read it, and if the takeaway is that Sandin shouldn't be shooting from the point, I'm not going to.  8) 8) 8) 8)

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/leafspr/status/1456382416986198020
Dermott is fine!

 

[ZBBM]

https://twitter.com/leafspr/status/1456382416986198020
Dermott is fine!

? Wouldn't Holl have drawn back in?