Luke Schenn Traded to Flyers for JVR!!!

[ZBBM]

It gets frustrating as all hell to see Burke talk about what upgrades need to be done without ever actually upgrading those positions.

Surely it's not worth getting that frustrated over.  Would it make you feel any better if Burke didn't talk about upgrades need to be done?

I mean, for the most part everyone here is intelligent enough.  We can figure out that just the mere fact Burke says he wants to upgrade in a certain position is not going to cause the seas to part and reveal the perfect player for that position.

Just because he says he wants to do something, doesn't mean it's going to happen right away, or ever.  There has to be availability, there has to be other teams willing, there has to be negotiation.

It shouldn't be news that when a GM says they want to try and do something that it might not work out.

Yeah but I remember Burke on a CP24 interview just before last season started. I can't remember who the good looking girl was who interviewed him but she asked what would happen if the Reimer/Gustavsson tandem didn't work out. Burke replied with......(I'm paraphrasing).........I can get a goalie with a draft pick. It isn't hard to get a goalie.

Really Brian?? Show me or shut up.

Nobody told Burke to say that. He doesn't have to go out of his way to say half of what he does.

The same way he Bs'd about picking Rielly or Reilly first overall.

Yeah, I'm sure that would have happened.

If you believe that then God Bless you, Potvin.

Still believe that Reimer is a bona fide #1 NHL goalie.He never got untracked after the concussion or whatever it was last year.Let's not forget that he was playing behind a pretty bad defense too.

Which got better how yesterday?  And no, trading Luke was not addition by subtraction, that would be behind the door marked "MK8" down the hall.

We now need to go out and get a d man who will be what we thought we were getting in Schenn ... And who Schenn himself might have become if we'd have given him some time under Carlyle.

 

[cw]

Schenn is only 22 which for a dman in this league is a young age relative to how well they typically can perform. Few are defensively sound at 22. It's even tougher when that dman is playing in front of suspect or just plain bad goaltending. I never expected he'd be a top 2 dman but I'd bet he'll be a good top four shutdown dman in the next 2-3 years - maybe next year.

JVR is somewhat damaged goods. Aside from his two concussions and some other health issues:
Nat'l Post link
A trade was attempted at different points of last season, but it failed to materialize when van Riemsdyk suffered a concussion right before the trade deadline. That injury is not a concern, but Burke admitted that van Riemsdyk suffers from what he called ?hockey hip? which inevitably would require surgery to repair.

For now, he seems to believe that van Riemsdyk can play with a bit of pain and will be given the opportunity to recapture some of what led to a ?magical playoffs? in 2011 when he scored seven goals in 13 games.

Although there's been considerable progress made in treating hip injuries, the long term prognosis for 'hockey hip' may not be a good one.

I was quite pessimistic about Lupul's injury and it appears Burke & the Leafs medical staff got that call right. Hopefully, they have this one right as well but for me, beyond his concussions, that's a fair and real concern.

Size is a need for the forward group and JVR is a good size. But a knock on him is that he hasn't always used it. He's tried to be a finesse player at times. He's been most effective when he's used his size. But with his injury history, I suspect he's somewhat limited in how much he'll be able to use it in terms of physical play. He should be tough to get the puck off but I'm not expecting a lot of bone crushing physical play with his banged up body.

Maybe what it all means is that JVR is less likely to realize the top potential some forecast when he was drafted #2 but still has the potential to be an effective top six player. As usual, time will tell.

In spite of where he publishes his articles, Bill Meltzer has been a pretty good writer for the Flyers. Here's some of his recent thoughts on JVR:
link 1
link 2

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Just reading some stats.  The Leafs started Schenn in the offensive zone over 50% of the time.  So he was sheltered in how he was used, and still ended up well below average in most of the stats other than hits.

http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2012/04/30/2011-12-season-in-review-defencemen/

 

[Kin]

So aside from people trying to talk themselves into Bozak as a #1 centre did I miss anything funny?

 

[maplesyrup]

Maybe what it all means is that JVR is less likely to realize the top potential some forecast when he was drafted #2 but still has the potential to be an effective top six player. As usual, time will tell.

This right here is pretty much why this is such a fair deal. It's looking probable that Schenn won't realize the top potential some (and a ton here) forecasted when he was drafted #5 either.

JVR - Likely a 2nd line power forward, could eventually blossom into a top line guy.
Schenn - Likely a steady bottom paring guy, could eventually blossom into a second pairing rock. 

 

[cw]

Maybe what it all means is that JVR is less likely to realize the top potential some forecast when he was drafted #2 but still has the potential to be an effective top six player. As usual, time will tell.

This right here is pretty much why this is such a fair deal. It's looking probable that Schenn won't realize the top potential some (and a ton here) forecasted when he was drafted #5 either.

JVR - Likely a 2nd line power forward, could eventually blossom into a top line guy.
Schenn - Likely a steady bottom paring guy, could eventually blossom into a second pairing rock.

With his obvious lack of offensive ability, I don't know how anyone seriously regarded him as a balanced top 2 dman in today's league. But he could turn out like Willie Mitchell, Scuderi or a bunch of guys like that who don't rack up a bundle of points yet play a bunch of minutes in a shutdown & PK role.

He got thrown in to the NHL on a bad team at 18 - very arguably not developed properly. Defence can be learned - it just takes time for young dmen. I think his chances are still very good to be a top 4 dman in this league. Many Leafs fans just lack the patience in part because he was a #1 pick and in part because he's been around for a while .. when in fact, many future top 4 dmen are just arriving into the league at 22 to play a 5-6 role. I think Schenn has been somewhat unfairly dumped on which has clouded current perceptions of his potential.

To me, Burke took the bigger risk with a player that may have higher potential if his injuries can be addressed such that they don't hold him back.

 

[Kin]

He got thrown in to the NHL on a bad team at 18 - very arguably not developed properly. Defence can be learned - it just takes time for young dmen. I think his chances are still very good to be a top 4 dman in this league. Many Leafs fans just lack the patience in part because he was a #1 pick and in part because he's been around for a while .. when in fact, many future top 4 dmen are just arriving into the league at 22 to play a 5-6 role. I think Schenn has been somewhat unfairly dumped on which has clouded current perceptions of his potential.

To me, Burke took the bigger risk with a player that may have higher potential if his injuries can be addressed such that they don't hold him back.

I agree. In a way it's reminiscent of people's attitudes towards Tlusty where people confused their own impatience and the team's mishandling of a player with a fair time table for improvement.

 

[maplesyrup]

I think as Busta put it, "it's a trade that happened" but I'd like to add that there is obvious upside here for both teams. So, "it's a trade that happened with obvious upside for both teams." How does that work? 

 

[cw]

I think as Busta put it, "it's a trade that happened" but I'd like to add that there is obvious upside here for both teams. So, "it's a trade that happened with obvious upside for both teams." How does that work?

If the Flyers get Bobby Ryan without cleaning out the store, it could work well for them ...

 

[bustaheims]

If the Flyers get Bobby Ryan without cleaning out the store, it could work well for them ...

I'm not sure if that's going to be possible for them. I would imagine Anaheim would have looked at JvR as a major component of any Bobby Ryan deal, and, now, I'm not sure there's a deal to be made there that doesn't at least include Couturier.

 

[cw]

If the Flyers get Bobby Ryan without cleaning out the store, it could work well for them ...

I'm not sure if that's going to be possible for them. I would imagine Anaheim would have looked at JvR as a major component of any Bobby Ryan deal, and, now, I'm not sure there's a deal to be made there that doesn't at least include Couturier.

I read somewhere that the Ducks are quite interested in Brayden Schenn. Maybe the Schenn bros for Ryan + .... ??

 

[Rebel_1812]

After taking some time to think about the trade I like it more and more.  Let's take potential out of the equation because JVR has it too.  Schenn is currently a 5-6 defencemen on our team.  He is big, plays physical and makes mistakes defensively.  We have another defencemen just like that in Komi.  You have 2 of the same type of players on a crowded defence corps, you move one to make room.  Trading Komi would not get anything of value, and Schenn yielded great return.  We didn't lose much presently, because Komi can do everything schenn does.  We free up a spot for Franson or another defencemen.  It makes perfect sense.

If your going to say Schenn had the potential to be better.  Well so does Komi, he was a top pairing guy with MTL, that is why he got the big contract.  There is still a chance he can find his game.  Also as I said JVR has great potential too.

After thinking about it like that; it is a great trade.

 

[Etiam Vultus]

If the Flyers get Bobby Ryan without cleaning out the store, it could work well for them ...

I'm not sure if that's going to be possible for them. I would imagine Anaheim would have looked at JvR as a major component of any Bobby Ryan deal, and, now, I'm not sure there's a deal to be made there that doesn't at least include Couturier.

I read somewhere that the Ducks are quite interested in Brayden Schenn. Maybe the Schenn bros for Ryan + .... ??

I read that the main motive for moving Ryan is financial.  (I know the Ducks have players making more, but they like them better than Ryan.) 

The Ducks are looking for about three roster players who would have a total cap hit similar to Ryan's.  In theory, the Leafs could send Gunnarson, Bozak and Kadri and make it work.  In practice, I would not do it.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I wonder if the emergence of Holzer this season with the Marlies made this trade a lot more palatable for the Leafs brass, he seems to bring as good a defensive game as Luke, without as much physical play.

If they get Schultz and his and Holzer's game translate to the NHL, they come out way ahead.

 

[leafplasma]

After taking some time to think about the trade I like it more and more.  Let's take potential out of the equation because JVR has it too.  Schenn is currently a 5-6 defencemen on our team.  He is big, plays physical and makes mistakes defensively.  We have another defencemen just like that in Komi.  You have 2 of the same type of players on a crowded defence corps, you move one to make room.  Trading Komi would not get anything of value, and Schenn yielded great return.  We didn't lose much presently, because Komi can do everything schenn does.  We free up a spot for Franson or another defencemen.  It makes perfect sense.

If your going to say Schenn had the potential to be better.  Well so does Komi, he was a top pairing guy with MTL, that is why he got the big contract.  There is still a chance he can find his game.  Also as I said JVR has great potential too.

After thinking about it like that; it is a great trade.

It is a great trade.  Luke Schenn was rushed, that argument can be made, however, Schenn is the type of dman that can be either drafted well outside of a top 5 pick or found on the UFA market.  Luke Schenn was drafted during that year of the dman draft class and his game was different related to the rest of that class as he was looked on as a pure defensive shut down type dman.  The rest of the class were puck movers or at least they were more of the well rounded value of dmen. Since then the league has changed to the point that puck movers like say Gardiner have become more highly touted.  Schenn has a number of glaring flaws in his game such as his skating, lack of mobility and his shot.  He will never turn into a guy like Pronger because his shot is abysmal and his hockey IQ has been atrocious. Really that is what you would come to expect with a guy like Schenn who isn't a puck moving dman but somebody you would hope could develop into a guy like Pronger due to the spot he was drafted. With that kind of pick you really need more than just a physical presence back there.  Schenn was dealt at the best possible time, another year of struggles would have surely dropped his trade value to the point that you would never get a guy like JVR in your dreams, frankly i can't believe it was possible even now.

The only question mark with JVR is his health and I certainly hope that he can overcome that with the Leafs.  If you are looking at what each has brought to the table in the league so far, JVR is a steal here, hands down IMHO.

 

[cw]

If the Flyers get Bobby Ryan without cleaning out the store, it could work well for them ...

I'm not sure if that's going to be possible for them. I would imagine Anaheim would have looked at JvR as a major component of any Bobby Ryan deal, and, now, I'm not sure there's a deal to be made there that doesn't at least include Couturier.

I read somewhere that the Ducks are quite interested in Brayden Schenn. Maybe the Schenn bros for Ryan + .... ??

I read that the main motive for moving Ryan is financial.  (I know the Ducks have players making more, but they like them better than Ryan.) 

The Ducks are looking for about three roster players who would have a total cap hit similar to Ryan's.  In theory, the Leafs could send Gunnarson, Bozak and Kadri and make it work.  In practice, I would not do it.

Luke $3.6 mil/yr
Brayden $0.9 mul/yr + bonuses (some he's not likely to achieve). Max bonuses incl salary is $3.1 mil
===========
Total $4.5 mil/yr plus bonuses Brayden achieves for a max of $6.7 (again some that Bryden is very unlikely to hit)

Ryan is making $5.1 mil/yr plus they have to pay one other roster player the NHL minimum $525k for a total minimum of $5.6 mil.

So those two players are pretty close to one Ryan contract year when you take into consideration the bonuses Brayden won't likely get ...

And given the positions they'd be forecast to play over the life of their play with Anaheim, they'd probably have one less top 4 or top 6 player to pay. So even the break even is roughly financially attractive for a team that may have to spend to get to the cap floor.

 

[#1PilarFan]

What's really alarming about this whole thing is that Burke actually added salary, and somehow we're one of the worst teams in the league with very little room to maneuver under the cap.

 

[Rebel_1812]

What's really alarming about this whole thing is that Burke actually added salary, and somehow we're one of the worst teams in the league with very little room to maneuver under the cap.

well armstrongs contract should be due soon.  Connolly's is up next year.  I think Komi should have his due soon as well.  This is a problem that will solve itself if you wait long enough.

 

[Kin]

well armstrongs contract should be due soon.  Connolly's is up next year.  I think Komi should have his due soon as well.  This is a problem that will solve itself if you wait long enough.

It won't though. For every soon to be expiring player with a bad contract there's a young player due a raise. Burke's really done a poor job of managing the cap.

 

[Etiam Vultus]

What's really alarming about this whole thing is that Burke actually added salary, and somehow we're one of the worst teams in the league with very little room to maneuver under the cap.

According to Gapgeek, we have just under $13 million left with 17 players (11 forwards, 5 defense, 1 goalie) signed.  If you estimate a total of $7 million for Kuleman, Frattin, Komarov, Franson and Holzer to fill out the roster of skaters, that still leaves $6 million for another goalie and/or to upgrade some positions. 

I am surprised that it has not been noted that the JVR contract that takes effect July 1 runs for six years.  To the best of my knowledge, this is the longest contract Burke has ever signed or traded for.