Luongo

[Tigger]

Probably not the right place to ask this, but I'd be curious to know how many fans would forgo the rest of this season if it meant the Leafs got the number one overall pick in next years draft. I know, it's fantasy land, but still curious.....

I would. The Leafs may be one of those teams who can only benefit from the lockout. They are young team and lot of their players get another good season and hopefully long play-off run with the Marlies (Gardiner, Kadri, Colborne, McKegg, Ryan, Holzer and Scrivens), others get time to adjust either to North American hockey or after long lay-off (Komarov, Ranger) and the whole Grabbo line will play overseas with Grabbo having Datsyuk and Kuli having Malkin as a playmate which could not hurt either.

Yeah, the Leafs should have a pretty good chance of landing near the start of the draft if they use the same model as last time.  There isn't a team that has missed the playoffs as much as the Leafs have over the last seven years.  You would hope that the odds would be in their favour that they would end up with a pretty decent pick.

I think it would probably resemble the last lottery, fwiw, where Pittsburgh won but the other 3 teams with the same chance received #6, #13 and #16... not to mention there would be more teams with the same chance this time.

I mean, if missing the season absolutely meant getting MacKinnon, well then, yeah.

 

[Brian Glennie]

So then we get back to the lockout and, again, the simple reality is that Burke didn't know how things would shake out

Debs, you have some experience with these labour/management standoff things, right? How long ago do you suppose the League formulated the offer they've presented to the players? This hard line position staked out by the owners was years in the making and as GM of the Leafs Burke would have been privy to everything that lies behind it.

Burke's been around a long time. He's held a senior position at the League office, he's a former player agent (and surely he'd have some perspective on the union in terms of its finances and the cohesion of its membership), he employs a huge staff of advisors...

I just don't get why you're prepared to give him a mulligan for misjudging where this thing was headed.

 

[lamajama]

So then we get back to the lockout and, again, the simple reality is that Burke didn't know how things would shake out

Debs, you have some experience with these labour/management standoff things, right? How long ago do you suppose the League formulated the offer they've presented to the players? This hard line position staked out by the owners was years in the making and as GM of the Leafs Burke would have been privy to everything that lies behind it.

Burke's been around a long time. He's held a senior position at the League office, he's a former player agent (and surely he'd have some perspective on the union in terms of its finances and the cohesion of its membership), he employs a huge staff of advisors...

I just don't get why you're prepared to give him a mulligan for misjudging where this thing was headed.

x1. As I've said before I know it's hindsight to say that it was obvious that at minimum there would be a lockout. I mean come on. The NFL and the NBA needed a lockout - why or perhaps how could the NHL be better than them - especially with Bettman at the helm.

If Burke didn't "know", he's not a very good GM.

 

[bustaheims]

If Burke didn't "know", he's not a very good GM.

Not knowing how things were going to shake out doesn't mean he didn't expect there to be a lockout. I'm fairly certain he did, but, he can't operate on the assumption that an entire season will be lost. Neither he, nor we, nor the league nor the PA know that for sure yet. And, there's no way anyone could say with absolute certainty when Armstrong was bought out in June that the entire 12/13 season would be lost.

 

[rdowdall]

Probably not the right place to ask this, but I'd be curious to know how many fans would forgo the rest of this season if it meant the Leafs got the number one overall pick in next years draft. I know, it's fantasy land, but still curious.....

I would. The Leafs may be one of those teams who can only benefit from the lockout. They are young team and lot of their players get another good season and hopefully long play-off run with the Marlies (Gardiner, Kadri, Colborne, McKegg, Ryan, Holzer and Scrivens), others get time to adjust either to North American hockey or after long lay-off (Komarov, Ranger) and the whole Grabbo line will play overseas with Grabbo having Datsyuk and Kuli having Malkin as a playmate which could not hurt either.

Yeah, the Leafs should have a pretty good chance of landing near the start of the draft if they use the same model as last time.  There isn't a team that has missed the playoffs as much as the Leafs have over the last seven years.  You would hope that the odds would be in their favour that they would end up with a pretty decent pick.

I think it would probably resemble the last lottery, fwiw, where Pittsburgh won but the other 3 teams with the same chance received #6, #13 and #16... not to mention there would be more teams with the same chance this time.

I mean, if missing the season absolutely meant getting MacKinnon, well then, yeah.

What was the criteria last time?  I thought it had to do with number of years missing the playoffs and the number of times drafting within the top 5?

 

[Tigger]

What was the criteria last time?  I thought it had to do with number of years missing the playoffs and the number of times drafting within the top 5?

Not making the playoffs for 3 years was one, not drafting number one for 4 years was another. 6.3% was what Pittsburgh rolled on...

The criteria is listed here...

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Someone put together a chart of how it would look under the same rules now here...

http://www.dirtydangle.com/2012/07/what-would-weighted-draft-lottery-look.html

 

[Erndog]

What was the criteria last time?  I thought it had to do with number of years missing the playoffs and the number of times drafting within the top 5?

Not making the playoffs for 3 years was one, not drafting number one for 4 years was another. 6.3% was what Pittsburgh rolled on...

The criteria is listed here...

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Someone put together a chart of how it would look under the same rules now here...

http://www.dirtydangle.com/2012/07/what-would-weighted-draft-lottery-look.html

This could actually be quite terrible for the Leafs.

Last year they had an 8% chance to get 1st overall, assuming this weighted lottery happens they would have a 6% chance.

What's worse?  In this format the Leafs could conceivably get the 30th pick overall.  Not to mention good teams (or rival teams) who likely would have had no chance at a top 5 pick could get one now (ex. Boston, Philly, even Ottawa, etc).

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Missing the Playoffs for 7 straight years should automatically give us the #1. The rest of the teams can have a lottery system for 2nd overall.

Edmonton will have a 0.00001% shot at it and somehow they'll win it

 

[Corn Flake]

Edmonton will have a 0.00001% shot at it and somehow they'll win it

My money is on the Brooklyn Wangs getting it.  8)

 

[Champ Kind]

Edmonton will have a 0.00001% shot at it and somehow they'll win it

My money is on the Brooklyn Wangs getting it.  8)

Me like! 

 

[Tigger]

This could actually be quite terrible for the Leafs.

Yeah, I'd rather they play and get the spot they deserve.

 

[Kin]

I just don't get why you're prepared to give him a mulligan for misjudging where this thing was headed.

I think you're using hindsight to envision a set of conditions that just didn't exist. It's a little bit like someone watching last night's Raptors game, which could have gone either way on any number of occasions, and saying "The Pacers won. The Pacers were always going to win. Everyone should have known the Pacers were going to win."

Burke knew the Owners were going to ask for a lot. Burke knew there'd be resistance. That's probably true. But to try and suggest that it was a foregone conclusion that the season would be lost because of those two things is A) Not even true yet and B) not accurate even if it does turn out to be true.

I like to think I'm a pretty smart guy and if you look over at the CBA negotiations thread you'll see I've stayed up on the situation and I can tell you that if I saw even the slightest hint of people with any knowledge of the situation saying "The season's done, forget about it, there's no middle ground," I'd probably have known about it. The overwhelming consensus of opinion was that things would get settled after missing a couple weeks and the season would open in November. Something that's still possible no matter how unlikely it may seem right now.

I'll tell you one thing, I bought Winter Classic tickets. If I thought that it was a sure or likely thing that the season would be cancelled I wouldn't have.

Buying out Armstrong was the right decision based on the actual circumstances Burke was faced with.

 

[Kin]

x1. As I've said before I know it's hindsight to say that it was obvious that at minimum there would be a lockout. I mean come on. The NFL and the NBA needed a lockout - why or perhaps how could the NHL be better than them - especially with Bettman at the helm.

If Burke didn't "know", he's not a very good GM.

As Busta points out there's an ocean of difference between thinking there was going to be a lockout, which most people did, and thinking that the season would be cancelled. The NFL didn't even miss any preseason games. The NBA missed a few weeks.

And the driving point of all of this is we still don't know how it's going to end. How can you criticize Burke for buying out Armstrong until we have the faintest idea that it will end up being costly to the team? We don't know what the conditions will be like when a deal is reached. We don't know what mechanisms a team might have for getting under the cap. Heck, if one season gets cancelled, what if two go? Then it's a complete tempest in a teapot.

 

[lamajama]

Missing the Playoffs for 7 straight years should automatically give us the #1. The rest of the teams can have a lottery system for 2nd overall.

Edmonton will have a 0.00001% shot at it and somehow they'll win it

Well you know, with all certainty such as death and taxes, the Leafs will never win this. We never "win" anything. We finally get an opportunity to see the Leafs in an outdoor game and HBO and pfffft away it
goes. I could go on but it's depressing enough....

 

[lamajama]

x1. As I've said before I know it's hindsight to say that it was obvious that at minimum there would be a lockout. I mean come on. The NFL and the NBA needed a lockout - why or perhaps how could the NHL be better than them - especially with Bettman at the helm.

If Burke didn't "know", he's not a very good GM.

As Busta points out there's an ocean of difference between thinking there was going to be a lockout, which most people did, and thinking that the season would be cancelled. The NFL didn't even miss any preseason games. The NBA missed a few weeks.

And the driving point of all of this is we still don't know how it's going to end. How can you criticize Burke for buying out Armstrong until we have the faintest idea that it will end up being costly to the team? We don't know what the conditions will be like when a deal is reached. We don't know what mechanisms a team might have for getting under the cap. Heck, if one season gets cancelled, what if two go? Then it's a complete tempest in a teapot.

I know your point  - even if BB "knew" - what would he have done different? I don't know. BB never entered the UFA market because it was
as overheated as a Kardashian at a buffet. What is frustrating is that despite the huge monetary advantage we have, BB has decided not to use
it (other than Finger to the AHL) and I can't blame him really for that. We have so many holes that what an over-priced piece ala Richards brings is severely diminished.

I'm really against Luongo coming (more from the aspect of giving virtually anything up to Vancouver as getting out from under Luongo's contract gives Vancouver a massive hand) but it seems that the Leafs are unable to be competitive without a top-notch goalie.

My concern is - Grabbo - $5.5; Kessel - $5.4+; Phaneuf - probably $5-$5 in a new deal and Luongo - $5.3 = $22 mil in 4 players not counting a Lupul or JVR. None save Luongo would be considered a true superstar - so we then go blow our brains out on a Getzlaff or Perry and we're at $30 m for 5 players - again not counting JVR at $4.25 and say Lupul at $5 so $40 m for 7 players leaving 16 players vying for eg $20 mil?

Yikes. Due to our circumstances we've had to invest big dollars in "above average" players not "superstars". Any way I look at it, it's going to be tough decisions and if we can't bury some mistakes in the minors there goes the monetary advantage the Leafs have. 

 

[Bonsixx]

My concern is - Grabbo - $5.5; Kessel - $5.4+; Phaneuf - probably $5-$5 in a new deal and Luongo - $5.3 = $22 mil in 4 players not counting a Lupul or JVR. None save Luongo would be considered a true superstar - so we then go blow our brains out on a Getzlaff or Perry and we're at $30 m for 5 players - again not counting JVR at $4.25 and say Lupul at $5 so $40 m for 7 players leaving 16 players vying for eg $20 mil?

I know he gets his share of flak, but I'm not sure there's anyone left who doesn't consider Phil Kessel a superstar.

 

[bustaheims]

I know he gets his share of flak, but I'm not sure there's anyone left who doesn't consider Phil Kessel a superstar.

I agree. He may not be on the same elite level as the Crosbys and Malkins of the league, but, he is most definitely a superstar.

 

[Kin]

I know he gets his share of flak, but I'm not sure there's anyone left who doesn't consider Phil Kessel a superstar.

I agree. He may not be on the same elite level as the Crosbys and Malkins of the league, but, he is most definitely a superstar.

But is he a superduperstar? Or a floofnagel?

 

[bustaheims]

But is he a superduperstar? Or a floofnagel?

No, I don't think he's quite at the level of floofnagel.

 

[Jalili]

x1. As I've said before I know it's hindsight to say that it was obvious that at minimum there would be a lockout. I mean come on. The NFL and the NBA needed a lockout - why or perhaps how could the NHL be better than them - especially with Bettman at the helm.

If Burke didn't "know", he's not a very good GM.

As Busta points out there's an ocean of difference between thinking there was going to be a lockout, which most people did, and thinking that the season would be cancelled. The NFL didn't even miss any preseason games. The NBA missed a few weeks.

And the driving point of all of this is we still don't know how it's going to end. How can you criticize Burke for buying out Armstrong until we have the faintest idea that it will end up being costly to the team? We don't know what the conditions will be like when a deal is reached. We don't know what mechanisms a team might have for getting under the cap. Heck, if one season gets cancelled, what if two go? Then it's a complete tempest in a teapot.

I know your point  - even if BB "knew" - what would he have done different? I don't know. BB never entered the UFA market because it was
as overheated as a Kardashian at a buffet. What is frustrating is that despite the huge monetary advantage we have, BB has decided not to use
it (other than Finger to the AHL) and I can't blame him really for that. We have so many holes that what an over-priced piece ala Richards brings is severely diminished.

I'm really against Luongo coming (more from the aspect of giving virtually anything up to Vancouver as getting out from under Luongo's contract gives Vancouver a massive hand) but it seems that the Leafs are unable to be competitive without a top-notch goalie.

My concern is - Grabbo - $5.5; Kessel - $5.4+; Phaneuf - probably $5-$5 in a new deal and Luongo - $5.3 = $22 mil in 4 players not counting a Lupul or JVR. None save Luongo would be considered a true superstar - so we then go blow our brains out on a Getzlaff or Perry and we're at $30 m for 5 players - again not counting JVR at $4.25 and say Lupul at $5 so $40 m for 7 players leaving 16 players vying for eg $20 mil?

Yikes. Due to our circumstances we've had to invest big dollars in "above average" players not "superstars". Any way I look at it, it's going to be tough decisions and if we can't bury some mistakes in the minors there goes the monetary advantage the Leafs have.

If it's any consolation, they likely won't have to worry about having to pay Getzlaf/Perry that kind of money.