Luongo

[Bullfrog]

You really think a consistent, world-class goalie like Luongo will degrade so fast that he won't even be an effective back-up at 37 years old?

 

[bustaheims]

You really think a consistent, world-class goalie like Luongo will degrade so fast that he won't even be an effective back-up at 37 years old?

When goalies start to degrade, they go fast. He might have a season or two as a backup, but, I wouldn't put any faith in more than that.

 

[cw]

You really think a consistent, world-class goalie like Luongo will degrade so fast that he won't even be an effective back-up at 37 years old?

Any backup at $5.3 mil cap hit for five more years would be hard to describe as "effective"

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

You really think a consistent, world-class goalie like Luongo will degrade so fast that he won't even be an effective back-up at 37 years old?

When goalies start to degrade, they go fast. He might have a season or two as a backup, but, I wouldn't put any faith in more than that.

I feel like Belfour went pretty fast.

 

[Bullfrog]

What does their salary/cap hit have to do with describing their effectiveness as a player? I didn't mention his overall value.

I also believe this rhetoric about how goalies plummet fast is overstated. While I'm not particularly arguing against it, I don't think it's particularly worse than skaters. Not many scorers extend their careers by transforming into checkers or 4th line plugs. Sure, it happens, but I don't think it's especially common. At least skater do have that opportunity to change roles, I'll admit that. For goalies, when they lose their reflexes they're done.

But goalies of Luongo's abilities generally last longer than an average goalie.

Is it worth it to use up $5.33 in cap space on an again backup goalie. Obviously not; no one will argue in favour of that.

 

[bustaheims]

I feel like Belfour went pretty fast.

Belfour stuck around a little longer than average (a handful of the truly elite can - but, really, only a handful), but, his last effective season as a starter was 03-04 - the season he turned 39. In 05-06, as we know, he was awful. He tried his hand as a backup in 06-07 - his last season in the league.

 

[bustaheims]

Some like CuJo, for instance, had his last season as an effective starter the season he turned 36. He had a couple more seasons as a below average starter with Phoenix after that and a couple years a backup - one of 9 games in Calgary, where he was okay, and one here, where his numbers were very poor.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I feel like Belfour went pretty fast.

Belfour stuck around a little longer than average (a handful of the truly elite can - but, really, only a handful), but, his last effective season as a starter was 03-04 - the season he turned 39. In 05-06, as we know, he was awful. He tried his hand as a backup in 06-07 - his last season in the league.

Oh wow, I forgot he was that old in 03-04.  I had thought he was a few years younger still.  Now I'm more impressed.

 

[bustaheims]

Oh wow, I forgot he was that old in 03-04.  I had thought he was a few years younger still.  Now I'm more impressed.

He also had a late start to his career - he turned 26 late in his first full season.

 

[Redleaf]

Oh wow, I forgot he was that old in 03-04.  I had thought he was a few years younger still.  Now I'm more impressed.

He also had a late start to his career - he turned 26 late in his first full season.

You've convinced me that 5 yrs may be too long to expect Luo to be the #1 guy in goal. Lets say we get 3-4 more years of Luo. Thats takes us to Riemer being 27-28 years of age. That is around the time most goalies come into their prime years. Other than Luo's contract, the timing is really good, assuming we keep Riems, and he excels under the tutelage of Luongo. I still like that scenario better than an aging forward coming in who may or may not find chemistry on the first line, and who still has a killer contract of his own.

edit: like I stated earlier, Luongo would be a difference maker, whereas adding an another aging forward to the lineup could make no difference at all to the fortunes of the team. That, to me is the key difference when comparing the two, contracts and age being nearly the same.

 

[Zee]

Oh wow, I forgot he was that old in 03-04.  I had thought he was a few years younger still.  Now I'm more impressed.

He also had a late start to his career - he turned 26 late in his first full season.

You've convinced me that 5 yrs may be too long to expect Luo to be the #1 guy in goal. Lets say we get 3-4 more years of Luo. Thats takes us to Riemer being 27-28 years of age. That is around the time most goalies are into their prime years. Other than Luo's contract, the timing is really good, assuming we keep Riems, and he excels under the tutelage of Luongo. I still like that scenario better than an aging forward coming in who may or may not find chemistry on the first line, and who still has a killer contract of his own.

I think Luongo has a solid 4 years left in him (not including this season).  If the Leafs could get him for relatively cheap, I think it's a good move.  He solidifies the goaltending for the next few seasons, and one of the younger guys has years to develop.  I'm not even talking Reimer or Scrivens here, I mean someone like Rynnas, Sparks or Owuya.  Other teams have young goalies come up through the system, why can't the Leafs?  IF Luongo is the go-to guy for the next few seasons, you can address other positional deficiencies like a top center and more size up front.  We take away the worry in net, and let the young guys develop and hope that 1 is ready by the time Luongo isn't a starter any longer.

 

[Redleaf]

Oh wow, I forgot he was that old in 03-04.  I had thought he was a few years younger still.  Now I'm more impressed.

He also had a late start to his career - he turned 26 late in his first full season.

You've convinced me that 5 yrs may be too long to expect Luo to be the #1 guy in goal. Lets say we get 3-4 more years of Luo. Thats takes us to Riemer being 27-28 years of age. That is around the time most goalies are into their prime years. Other than Luo's contract, the timing is really good, assuming we keep Riems, and he excels under the tutelage of Luongo. I still like that scenario better than an aging forward coming in who may or may not find chemistry on the first line, and who still has a killer contract of his own.

I think Luongo has a solid 4 years left in him (not including this season).  If the Leafs could get him for relatively cheap, I think it's a good move.  He solidifies the goaltending for the next few seasons, and one of the younger guys has years to develop.  I'm not even talking Reimer or Scrivens here, I mean someone like Rynnas, Sparks or Owuya.  Other teams have young goalies come up through the system, why can't the Leafs?  IF Luongo is the go-to guy for the next few seasons, you can address other positional deficiencies like a top center and more size up front.  We take away the worry in net, and let the young guys develop and hope that 1 is ready by the time Luongo isn't a starter any longer.

Not to mention the fact, it helps to bring in better free agents, who see we have a solid goaltender between the pipes.

 

[bustaheims]

You've convinced me that 5 yrs may be too long to expect Luo to be the #1 guy in goal. Lets say we get 3-4 more years of Luo. Thats takes us to Riemer being 27-28 years of age. That is around the time most goalies come into their prime years.

Well, that's actually a different issue - I looked into this a couple years ago, and found that, if a goalie hasn't established himself as a starter by the season he turns 27, he's unlikely to ever do so. Reimer really has this season and next season to show he can handle the role, and, if he can't, it's extremely unlikely he'll be able to in the future. I also wouldn't count on Luongo to provide any tutelage.

 

[Bullfrog]

In order to make any sense for any team, he has to be one of those handful of goalies who can be effective up to his late 30's and even up to 40. I think for the most part we can all agree that it's likely he'll be very effective for the next few years. After that it's hoping. Going for him is that he's had a pretty healthy career and can play many games.

Given the exceptional circumstances that are needed for his contract to make sense, I still find it surprising that it was ever approved in the first place.

 

[Redleaf]

You've convinced me that 5 yrs may be too long to expect Luo to be the #1 guy in goal. Lets say we get 3-4 more years of Luo. Thats takes us to Riemer being 27-28 years of age. That is around the time most goalies come into their prime years.

I looked into this a couple years ago, and found that, if a goalie hasn't established himself as a starter by the season he turns 27, he's unlikely to ever do so.

Reimer really has this season and next season to show he can handle the role

I'm not sure how you are doing the math here, but including this season, Reimer will still be only 27 years of age 4 seasons from now.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm not sure how you are doing the math here, but including this season, Reimer will still be only 27 years of age 4 seasons from now.

He turns 25 this season. Which means, the season he turns 27 is 14/15. He has to have established himself as a starter by then if he's likely to be one.

 

[cw]

What does their salary/cap hit have to do with describing their effectiveness as a player? I didn't mention his overall value.

I also believe this rhetoric about how goalies plummet fast is overstated. While I'm not particularly arguing against it, I don't think it's particularly worse than skaters. Not many scorers extend their careers by transforming into checkers or 4th line plugs. Sure, it happens, but I don't think it's especially common. At least skater do have that opportunity to change roles, I'll admit that. For goalies, when they lose their reflexes they're done.

But goalies of Luongo's abilities generally last longer than an average goalie.

Is it worth it to use up $5.33 in cap space on an again backup goalie. Obviously not; no one will argue in favour of that.

I looked at that last year. There are exceptions like Belfour, Brodeur & Hasek for example who played as a starter well beyond age 34. But most starters tend to begin decline around the age of 34. Luongo turns 34 in April and has just been beaten out of his job by a young Schneider.

Getting Luongo now is locking in on an expensive 10 year investment - buying "high and heavy" - on something where the stock is arguably and typically beginning to decline.

As Glenn Healy, a former NHL goalie rightfully pointed out, Luongo has also played a lot of hockey - 1119 games in the QMJHL, AHL, NHL & Int'l tournaments. Similar numbers for the top 4 all time: Belfour is 1379, Sawchuk  1323, Roy 1501 & Brodeur 1655 - which suggests Luongo will overtake Eddie and Sawchuk in 3-4 years in wear and tear.  In a few games this season, Luongo will crack the top 20 all time for games played in the NHL
http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/nhl-goalies-all-time-games-played-leaders.html
... and we want to bet $5.3 mil for the next 10 years that we're going to get a lot more hockey out of him?
And I can assure that the last couple of hundred games for the guys on that list were generally not as good as the first 600-800. Luongo hips, knees and groin from 1119 games of butterfly will inevitably start to break down unless he's super human and we're extraordinarily lucky. Brodeur abandoned the butterfly because of the damage to his knees.

Two of the active goalies on that list near Luongo are in decline or near done: Vokoun & Khabibulin. So unless someone is convinced Luongo is another Roy or Brodeur, the two best all time, who just suffered an aberration in losing his starting job that the two best all time did not ....

 

[cw]

You've convinced me that 5 yrs may be too long to expect Luo to be the #1 guy in goal. Lets say we get 3-4 more years of Luo. Thats takes us to Riemer being 27-28 years of age. That is around the time most goalies come into their prime years.

Well, that's actually a different issue - I looked into this a couple years ago, and found that, if a goalie hasn't established himself as a starter by the season he turns 27, he's unlikely to ever do so. Reimer really has this season and next season to show he can handle the role, and, if he can't, it's extremely unlikely he'll be able to in the future. I also wouldn't count on Luongo to provide any tutelage.

The goalies who have been older when they become starters tended to be Euros who came to NA later in their careers and had to adjust their games. The average age for when a Euro goalie becomes a NHL starter is older than goalies who grew up and played in NA.

I'm sure there are exceptions but I generally agree with your statement.

 

[bustaheims]

The goalies who have been older when they become starters tended to be Euros who came to NA later in their careers and had to adjust their games. The average age for when a Euro goalie becomes a NHL starter is older than goalies who grew up and played in NA.

I'm sure there are exceptions but I generally agree with your statement.

Well, there's that, as well. 27 seemed to be the rough benchmark for all goalies - Europeans included (though, mostly, they had been in the NHL for a couple seasons by that point, as not many goalies cross the pond at that point in their careers) - when I looked into it. There were one or two exceptions that I found, but, for the most part, it was a pretty solid indicator.

 

[Derk]

People would really want to trade for Luongo under the assumption that he would be good for 4 more years, and then have to deal with 6 years of his cap hit?

Unless we start seeing a trend of lower income teams load up on "free" salary cap values to reach the floor, this is something I would avoid like crazy.