Marlies Talk 13/14

[moon111]

The Leafs are always out to make the pretty play.  And they lead to turn-overs.  They also make players like Clarkson totally useless.  Players like Kessel, Rielly, Gardiner, Kadri, Lupul... have to learn the odds are sometimes better to just make a simple play.  Dump, chase down with speed.  Keep the puck in the opposing zone. 

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

The Leafs are always out to make the pretty play.  And they lead to turn-overs.  They also make players like Clarkson totally useless.  Players like Kessel, Rielly, Gardiner, Kadri, Lupul... have to learn the odds are sometimes better to just make a simple play.  Dump, chase down with speed.  Keep the puck in the opposing zone.

This might be the worst post ever produced on here, the players who actually produce, need to change their game, play the stop and wait game, that generates no speed on the forecheck?

You are an imbecile if you believe this.

 

[Redleaf]

No, but scoring more goals than the other team on a consistent basis, regardless of the shots on goal, is usually a pretty good indicator something is working. That happened for more than 3/4 of the season last year until some key injuries occurred, two extremely tired goal scorers stopped producing, and a goaltender went into slump and derailed it all in quick order.

Even before the major slump to end the season, the Leafs were basically a .500 team with a nice looking record thanks to their success in the shootout. So, while I guess doing something roughly 50% of the time could be considered a consistent basis, it's not exactly the kind of consistent basis where you can say something is working. And, it really wasn't even 50% of the time. It's more that they weren't outscored by their opponents ~50% of the time. They were only outscoring their opponents in actually hockey 45% of the time.

Regardless of their shoutout record (this is part of the game in the reg. season) they were a clear cut playoff team prior to the slump, and I think they can become one next season with a few personnel moves. If like to see a few Marlies come up on a full time basis next season.

Not sure if this lineup comes in under the cap, as I haven't checked it out, but I'd like to see something like this next season....

JVR-Bozak-Kessel
?-Statsny-Clarkson
D'Amigo-Bolland-Kulemin
Holland-Carrick-Ashton

Phaneuf- Gunnarson
Reilly- 'Shutdown Veteran'
Gardiner- Granberg
Gleason

I'd trade Kadri, Ranger, Lupul and Franson, plus whatever picks or prospects to try and acquire that veteran shutdown D man and Left winger to fill that spot on the second line.

Sam Bennett (plays C/LW) apparently is NHL ready once he's drafted. Use some of the guys mention above along with the 8th pick to move up the draft, and we may have that LW for the 2nd line right there.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

It's the Leafs 3rd, 4th lines, defensive defensemen that really failed them.  And this is just the core the Marlies will hopefully provide.  Stats don't measure quality of a shot very well, so all in all, maybe the system is working.

Consistently giving up 50 shots is never an indication that a system is "working".

Fixed

Fixed. 

 

[OldTimeHockey]

The Leafs are always out to make the pretty play.  And they lead to turn-overs.  They also make players like Clarkson totally useless.  Players like Kessel, Rielly, Gardiner, Kadri, Lupul... have to learn the odds are sometimes better to just make a simple play.  Dump, chase down with speed.  Keep the puck in the opposing zone.

This might be the worst post ever produced on here, the players who actually produce, need to change their game, play the stop and wait game, that generates no speed on the forecheck?

You are an imbecile if you believe this.

Well, that was nice of you.

I don't disagree completely with moon's thoughts. I guess I fall into the imbecile category too.

 

[bustaheims]

The Leafs are always out to make the pretty play.  And they lead to turn-overs.  They also make players like Clarkson totally useless.  Players like Kessel, Rielly, Gardiner, Kadri, Lupul... have to learn the odds are sometimes better to just make a simple play.  Dump, chase down with speed.  Keep the puck in the opposing zone.

The people who actually look at the game with an analytical outlook have found, rather convincingly, that carrying the puck into the zone produces a much higher rate of shots on goal and scoring chances than playing dump and chase does. Dump and chase is essentially giving the other team the puck and trying to get it back. It's a backwards way of playing the game that doesn't keep the puck in the oppositions zone. In fact, it frequently leads to them getting the puck out of their zone more easily. Making the simple play is great and all, but, making the smart play is more important - and, more often than not, carrying the puck in is the smart play.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The Leafs are always out to make the pretty play.  And they lead to turn-overs.  They also make players like Clarkson totally useless.  Players like Kessel, Rielly, Gardiner, Kadri, Lupul... have to learn the odds are sometimes better to just make a simple play.  Dump, chase down with speed.  Keep the puck in the opposing zone.

I would argue they do do that.  They don't always make the 'pretty' play, and in any event, dump ins are a better way to lose possession and not keep it in the opposing zone. 

Players like Clarkson are made useless by being bad.  Don't blame his inability to play well on other, better, more skilled players.

I'm sure Gardiner is why Orr sucks though.

 

[Tigger]

Dump plays may be a better way to lose possession but it's better to lose possession deep than it is halfway up the ice.

Sometimes the 'smart' play is the safe play.

Also, it's a tactic that's necessary to learn for the long haul in the playoffs, dumping when advised with a follow up of strong physical play in an attempt to retrieve the puck can wear the opposition down over time.

Anywho, the Leafs have a long way to go with cycling, fore/back checking, gap control and overall physical play before that really matters.

 

[Kin]

Dump plays may be a better way to lose possession but it's better to lose possession deep than it is halfway up the ice.

But I don't think anyone would argue with the use of dump plays as a safety valve or when you're looking to change lines. The problem here is with the use of them as a designed offensive game plan. I could buy that it could be effective provided you have players with skillsets that are tailored to maximizing turnovers down low(which is a fairly rare combination of speed, size and toughness) but the idea that it would be a team-wide thing? You want the puck on Phil Kessel's stick.

 

[Tigger]

Sure, but even Phil dumps the puck when there's no play, which is what I was getting at and it sure seems like the gist here is that possession entering the offensive zone is the be all end all, the other team has a game plan too. I'd say Phil is one player and the rest of the team is decidedly not Philesque but that should be obvious.

If the Leafs don't want to be a 'rush' team then they have to incorporate other game plans according to the state of play. I wouldn't suggest tailoring a team to that game plan, not ever barring a unique roster alignment, but if they want to be successful, especially in the playoffs, it's a mode they need to wrap their collective heads around. Overall it's better to be safe than it is to be sorry, the old adage 'make the easy outs' comes to mind.

Rare combination, sure, they need some of it if they want to be successful.

 

[Kin]

Sure, but even Phil dumps the puck when there's no play, which is what I was getting at and it sure seems like the gist here is that possession entering the offensive zone is the be all end all, the other team has a game plan too. I'd say Phil is one player and the rest of the team is decidedly not Philesque but that should be obvious.

I don't think anyone is advocating for never dumping the puck in though. Just that, all things being equal, it's the choice a team should make if they have the opportunity. "Dump and chase" is not advocating the occasional dumping of the puck should the situation warrant, it's a specific strategy designed to generate offensive chances by means of giving the other team the puck. Not everyone is Phil, no, but everyone is more likely to score with the puck than without it.

If the Leafs don't want to be a 'rush' team then they have to incorporate other game plans according to the state of play. I wouldn't suggest tailoring a team to that game plan, not ever barring a unique roster alignment, but if they want to be successful, especially in the playoffs, it's a mode they need to wrap their collective heads around. Overall it's better to be safe than it is to be sorry, the old adage 'make the easy outs' comes to mind.

But I think "making the easy outs" is what is being advocated here. It's about making the smart percentage play.  I know you're saying that what the smart play is depends on the situation but I don't think that's being disputed. What's being said is that if the offense has the chance to choose how they enter the zone between carrying and flipping it in, carrying is better. That doesn't mean you carry 100% of the time, it just means that the mental flow chart's first stop should be "can I carry the puck in?"

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Dump plays may be a better way to lose possession but it's better to lose possession deep than it is halfway up the ice.

Sometimes the 'smart' play is the safe play.

Obviously.  I'm not saying NEVER do it, but if you have enough skill to maintain possession then you can have the ability to perhaps maintain the puck instead of dumping it in.  Obviously there will be times when dumping it in is the smart play, many times in fact.

 

[sooner2220]

Some questions for those 'in the know': Will any of the Memorial Cup prospects (Bibeau, Finn or Rupert) be joining the Marlies for the rest of their playoff run? With Ryan Rupert already signed to an ELC and the Leafs close to their contract maximum of 50, would the Leafs consider signing Matt Rupert to a Marlie contract to keep the twins playing together allowing Matt the opportunity to 'earn' a Leaf contract? Also with Viktor Loov signed to a contract, will he be joining the Marlies next season or will he spend more development time playing for MoDo?

 

[Highlander]

We may see 2 or 3 Marlie defense move up next year, so they will probably need Loov over here.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Also with Viktor Loov signed to a contract, will he be joining the Marlies next season or will he spend more development time playing for MoDo?

He's supposedly coming to the Marlies next season.

 

[Rebel_1812]

The Leafs are always out to make the pretty play.  And they lead to turn-overs.  They also make players like Clarkson totally useless.  Players like Kessel, Rielly, Gardiner, Kadri, Lupul... have to learn the odds are sometimes better to just make a simple play.  Dump, chase down with speed.  Keep the puck in the opposing zone.

The people who actually look at the game with an analytical outlook have found, rather convincingly, that carrying the puck into the zone produces a much higher rate of shots on goal and scoring chances than playing dump and chase does. Dump and chase is essentially giving the other team the puck and trying to get it back. It's a backwards way of playing the game that doesn't keep the puck in the oppositions zone. In fact, it frequently leads to them getting the puck out of their zone more easily. Making the simple play is great and all, but, making the smart play is more important - and, more often than not, carrying the puck in is the smart play.

Don Cherry argues pretty strongly for the opposite.  He's not the most analytic of people.  But there are alot of hockey people that think different.  The style of play should be determined based on the line up.  Since the leafs didn't have much of a forecheck, the dump and chase style isn't going to work.  However, for a lineup like Boston or Chicago; it is a viable option.

 

[bustaheims]

Don Cherry argues pretty strongly for the opposite.  He's not the most analytic of people.  But there are alot of hockey people that think different.  The style of play should be determined based on the line up.  Since the leafs didn't have much of a forecheck, the dump and chase style isn't going to work.  However, for a lineup like Boston or Chicago; it is a viable option.

People can think differently all they want, but, the number don't lie. Relying on dump and chase is a poor strategy. It can be effective in moderation, but, as your go-to move, it's not going to work. Even Boston and Chicago play to carry the puck as frequently as they can, and, when they do dump it in with the intention of chasing it down, they chip it in shallow rather than dumping it in deep.

 

[lamajama]

I heard it's 1-1 after one in tonight's game.

Or is this not the thread for that....

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

3-3 Marlies come from behind twice in the 2nd.

Oh and there is no doubt that Holland is one of the 3 best pivots in this organisation, he might be one of the top six players actually.

He is dominating.

 

[L K]

Getting grossly outshot again (33-17 through two periods).  Texas was the #1 team in the AHL all season and they are showing it.  Good for the Marlies on hanging tough with them though.