Marner signs 6 year, $10.893mil AAV contract

[Deebo]

So I know that this has been gone over lots during the Nylander stuff but are the Leafs actually paying him 45 million? I thought that was cap trickery so that he could get his full first year's salary of 6.9(or whatever it was with the bonus).

Yeah, he'll end up getting paid a total of 41.8M

 

[disco]

I think Matthews counts for that superstar list. The Eichel deal is weird but I understood it for both sides.

Whether or not Marner should be there is definitely a fair question but personally I couldn't think of anyone else negotiating their second deal coming off a 90+ point season(other than Point).

edit: Backstrom, I suppose. But even then he got 11+ % and 10 years.

I think if the mainstream media talked about these contracts as cap %ages instead of raw AAV, fans would be a bit more understanding.

I think Marner?s team considered him part of that group, and Dubas considers him a step (or two) below and that was the chasm that needed to be bridged. Ultimately, ?overpaying? Marner during this window is more worthwhile than going through the sit or trade scenarios in which the Leafs lose tremendous value.

x2 on publicizing % of cap as a noteworthy statistic and Dubas' desire to avoid any scenario in which the asset would depreciate.

 

[Fanatic]

On TSN 1050 this morning, Darren Ferris says that Mitch was given 2 offer sheets over the summer.

https://twitter.com/FirstUp1050/status/1173584267600900103

 

[Fanatic]

On TSN 1050 this morning, Darren Ferris said that Mitch was given 2 offer sheets over the summer.

https://twitter.com/FirstUp1050/status/1173584267600900103

 

[louisstamos]

On TSN 1050 this morning, Darren Ferris says that Mitch was given 2 offer sheets over the summer.

https://twitter.com/FirstUp1050/status/1173584267600900103

I think the Columbus one was well documented.  I wonder who the other one would have been?  Montreal?

Edit: Minnesota, apparently

https://twitter.com/MattBarnaby3636/status/1173588206354407426

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd bet everything that I own that neither offer sheet was as high as the contract he eventually got from the Leafs. Because you can be damn sure if they were Ferris would be telling everyone who would listen that Marner turned down more money to stay a Leaf.

 

[Zee]

I'd bet everything that I own that neither offer sheet was as high as the contract he eventually got from the Leafs. Because you can be damn sure if they were Ferris would be telling everyone who would listen that Marner turned down more money to stay a Leaf.

So we could only have wished that he signed one of the two offer sheets.  Alas, this is now done and hopefully Mitch can outperform his contract.

 

[Frank E]

I'd bet everything that I own that neither offer sheet was as high as the contract he eventually got from the Leafs. Because you can be damn sure if they were Ferris would be telling everyone who would listen that Marner turned down more money to stay a Leaf.

You are 100% right here, boss.

I came here to write this exact statement.  You, being so smart, beat me to it, and said it better and more succinctly than I ever could.

Well written.  Great post. 

 

[ZBBM]

Hey Carlton, why is your name in bright red on my screen all of a sudden?  You didn't get elected dictator, did you?

 

[ZBBM]

I'd bet everything that I own that neither offer sheet was as high as the contract he eventually got from the Leafs. Because you can be damn sure if they were Ferris would be telling everyone who would listen that Marner turned down more money to stay a Leaf.

You are 100% right here, boss.

I came here to write this exact statement.  You, being so smart, beat me to it, and said it better and more succinctly than I ever could.

Well written.  Great post.

And what the hell is up with Frank?

 

[herman]

I think the Columbus one was well documented.  I wonder who the other one would have been?  Montreal?

Edit: Minnesota, apparently

https://twitter.com/MattBarnaby3636/status/1173588206354407426

Pre or post Paul Fenton, I wonder?

Some people are saying it was Montreal.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd bet everything that I own that neither offer sheet was as high as the contract he eventually got from the Leafs. Because you can be damn sure if they were Ferris would be telling everyone who would listen that Marner turned down more money to stay a Leaf.

You are 100% right here, boss.

I came here to write this exact statement.  You, being so smart, beat me to it, and said it better and more succinctly than I ever could.

Well written.  Great post. 

Alright calm down I won't ban you.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/TSNSimmer/status/1173621311823892480

Marner: Yeah I rejected offer sheets, always wanted to be a Leaf, never considered them for a second... unless someone gave me a monster deal that walked me UFA then yeah I'd have signed obvi.

 

[Coco-puffs]

So can someone explain to me why RFA Mitch Marner is paid $1.5 million more per year, on a shorter contract, than Kucherov? Can we officially say that Dubas is a good scout but a terrible negotiator?

One doesn't have anything to do with the other?
I mean i guess your argument would hold water if Kucherov signed his contract yesterday.

Yeah that 14 months has seen a 20% rise in salaries.

Hey the fact that Kucherov is a steal doesn't make Marner a rip off.
Sure it's a tad high but comparing it to what might be considered one of the better deals in the game is a little bit of a stretch.

Marner is pretty grossly overpaid as a RFA relative to just about any possible comparator you could come up with.

Like at least 2 million/year and probably more. He?s a great player but that doesn?t mean any old contract is a good contract. And it?s an unforced error because he literally cannot play anywhere else.

I'm dissapointed Marner went for the re-setting the market contract- I was hoping he'd come in at a more reasonable cost.

That said, the argument that this deal is bad because Kucherov makes 9.5M x 8 and Marner makes 10.9 x 6 has some valid points (namely UFA vs RFA)- but it can also be argued the deal is not out of line.

Some facts:
1.  Kuch signed his deal BEFORE his 128 pt season.  Kucherov had a 100 pt season prior to signing his contract.
2.  Marner put up 94 pts in his contract year
3.  Marner is 22, his deal ends when he is 28
4.  Kuch is 26, his deal ends when his 34

Why is Marner's deal not entirely out of line:

People who point to the 128 pts for 9.5m vs 94 for 10.893 are ignoring the fact he signed before putting up 128 points.  He did so after a 100 pt season, closer to what Marner did last season.

Many studies have shown that a players peak years are from 22-26, with star players generally having a very slow drop off until 30.  After that, the drop becomes a bit more consistent.  For this reason, Kucherov will likely outplay his contract in the first 4-5 years, but the last 3 years become a bit of a risk. 

Marner's contract is almost entirely his prime.  From a cap allocation perspective (and not a historical RFA vs UFA contract perspective) his deal is fine.  If Kucherov's deal was SHORTER, the 9.5M AAV would make Marner's deal look worse, not better.

(Furthremore:  If I'm the Leafs, I'm more worried about John Tavares at 11M in 4 years than Marner at 11M in 4 years.)

Anyways, I'm still not happy about the deal.  Just pointing out its not entirely crazy if you look at it through those lenses instead of the way the market has worked historically.  Ultimately, I do think younger stars should be getting a bigger piece of the pie.  It will be interesting to see if this does start a shift.  It sucks the Leafs seemed to have had to start this shift.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/RussoHockey/status/1173624434361622532

Russo's one of the most respected beat reporters in hockey, so I'd take his word over Matthew Barnaby's.

 

[herman]

While Ferris and co. try to put their spin on the final narrative, the Leafs take a crack at it on their end:
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1173669265540603904

 

[Zee]

While Ferris and co. try to put their spin on the final narrative, the Leafs take a crack at it on their end:
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1173669265540603904

Mitch didn't get a hug from Shanahan

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

While Ferris and co. try to put their spin on the final narrative, the Leafs take a crack at it on their end:
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1173669265540603904

Mitch didn't get a hug from Shanahan

No, but he did give him $65 million United States of America dollars. 

 

[Frank E]

That might be better than a hug.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1174071918095417344

So there's a good chance we have a roughly $81.5mil cap ceiling for half of Marner's contract. And then we're banking on an increase because of the new TV deal, which I'm sure is going to be as massive as the NHL expects it to be since they've never signed a bad TV deal before, right?